3 hours from possible massive over panic at 10pm update.
*****2024 Hurricane Season*****
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Last: 12 days ago by tk for tu juan
And the good neighborhood bars that open back up before they have full power/internet will only be able to take cash.Agasaurus Tex said:
Definitely need cash. After Ike only Walmart and Sam's were open and they could only take cash.
Dangit. Need this to make landfall just north of S Padre and soak central Texas and the hill country. Give Houston a break.
Wish it would but that seems unlikely now right?
YesAnti-taxxer said:
Is he related to Joe?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_*******i
Quote:
In 1992 *******i married Jessica Jane Strunck, also a Penn State graduate. They have a son Garrett (born 1996) and a daughter Jessica (born 1998). In his free time, *******i enjoys bodybuilding, and has won the NABBA American Bodybuilding Championships
It's just going to depend on how fast Beryl reorganizes and reintensifies. Stronger tracks will tend towards Galveston and the weaker ones towards Corpus.
Piecing together satellite and aircraft recon data, #Beryl's vortex is tilted roughly southwest to northeast with height. It's not as badly tilted as earlier GFS and HAFS forecasts surmised, but Beryl still has some shear/dry air to fight and reorganizing to do before… pic.twitter.com/ZliqPuYy9g
— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 5, 2024
The @NOAA_HurrHunter data this evening definitely shows that the combination of land, shear, and dry air has taken a notable toll on the structure of #Beryl. Looks like it could take some time for it to rebuild, and that's if the dry air and shear allow the structure to rebound. https://t.co/f9WxiUuKB3
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) July 6, 2024
It's definitely the calm before the storm out here right now.
I wouldn’t be too surprised if #Beryl’s inner core takes longer to rebuild, this sneaky mid-level dry air mass that’ll be lurking to #Beryl’s south tomorrow further enhances the vortex asymmetry/potential for downshear vortex “tugging” pic.twitter.com/qxoC1LUtDR
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) July 6, 2024
With all these models putting out so many landfall locations does anyone get the feeling the reason the models are all over may be because it will ride the coastline from say Corpus to Galveston then head due North and cross the coastline.
The reason is because nobody knows. It's a total crapshoot.
It means nobody really knows where it's going at this time. Just be prepared, I think we've talked about this.
Who is the best meteorologist to follow on Houston local TV? I always liked Frank Billingsley before he retired last Friday.
I can't remember a storm that has caused this amount of uncertainty with landfall being a couple of days away. Tomorrow will be telling.
kgtg79 said:
Who is the best meteorologist to follow on Houston local TV? I always liked Frank Billingsley before he retired last Friday.
Herzog is probably the best now.
hey attn all he went to A&M
BayAg_14 said:
I can't remember a storm that has caused this amount of uncertainty with landfall being a couple of days away. Tomorrow will be telling.
There are lots of them.
I came down to Port O'Connor in '20 to repair a boat trailer so I could get the boat out of the slip and leave before a hurricane for. Planned to drive in the morning and leave by dinner with the storm supposed to be a nearly direct hit the next day. Ended up coming ashore south of corpus and we stayed for a pretty decent weekend.
Rita took a huge swing at the end.
To be fair...Rita was ~20 years ago. The modeling and tech is magnitudes better than it was then.
The forecast models have been pretty split on this thing from the start, which the NHC has highlighted the entire time.
The forecast models have been pretty split on this thing from the start, which the NHC has highlighted the entire time.
A remarkable north trend with #Beryl over the last five deterministic ECMWF runs valid 12z Monday. The landfall location has shifted from Northeast Mexico to just southwest of Galveston, TX. Huge implications and a very sensitive forecast ahead. #txwx #energy pic.twitter.com/eGNkEAPwXv
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) July 5, 2024
This does signal Beryl will be susceptible to dry air intrusion, more so than models with the most intense outcomes for Beryl suggested. Hopefully this delays re-intensification long enough to spare Texas of the worst case scenario.https://t.co/WOxw8vMdsc
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) July 6, 2024
kgtg79 said:
Who is the best meteorologist to follow on Houston local TV? I always liked Frank Billingsley before he retired last Friday.
I follow Travis Herzog. He seems to be the least dramatic and takes the time to thoroughly explain the various possibilities.
May 2024… last time a post was made on Travis Herzog X account.
Can someone link his correct page.
Can someone link his correct page.
On Facebook he's ABC13-Travis Herzog
This is promising news to keep it south of Houston, right? Longer it takes to reorganize, the longer it takes to turn north or something like that?PJYoung said:I wouldn’t be too surprised if #Beryl’s inner core takes longer to rebuild, this sneaky mid-level dry air mass that’ll be lurking to #Beryl’s south tomorrow further enhances the vortex asymmetry/potential for downshear vortex “tugging” pic.twitter.com/qxoC1LUtDR
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) July 6, 2024
AgLiving06 said:
To be fair...Rita was ~20 years ago. The modeling and tech is magnitudes better than it was then.
The forecast models have been pretty split on this thing from the start, which the NHC has highlighted the entire time.
To be fair….
Rita was a Cat 5 Hurricane barreling down on Houston.
To be fair….
Hurricane Katrina just happened a few weeks earlier…
I just remember the "news" stating Academy ran out of ammunition BUT the Home Depot off of Bissonet and Beltway still had generators.
I stayed but I get why people panicked.
Nanomachines son said:kgtg79 said:
Who is the best meteorologist to follow on Houston local TV? I always liked Frank Billingsley before he retired last Friday.
Herzog is probably the best now.
Herzog has been the best for a while.
BillYeoman and Marvin Zindler with back to back posts. This is how you Tine.
What's the story on the system behind Beryl? Did that fade away?
Pressure increased to 1000mb
Mid-level water vapor loop
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=gm&band=09&length=24&dim=undefined
Mid-level water vapor loop
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=gm&band=09&length=24&dim=undefined
BBRex said:
What's the story on the system behind Beryl? Did that fade away?
Yes, no longer on the 7 day outlook
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
TS Beryl has dropped further to 60 mph. this is getting sheared down! HAFS-B shows this weakening down to 45 mph. pic.twitter.com/5FkLC8SwMZ
— 🇺🇸Hu☈☈icane Lee🇺🇸 (@TheHurricaneLee) July 6, 2024
They don't know their ass from a hole in the ground. When you're 24 hours out, they'll be sure of where it's going. They had this thing from Central America to Beaumont over the past week. They might as well just throw some dice on a map and say something about it. This should improve as AI becomes more involved. Just keep your go bag ready and do what you need to do.
Ok Herzog posted a facebook update showing track and Matagorda bay as the 10 pm update and said he's about to go on air so no explanation of the post. Said he will explain on tv.
I screenshot it…and a couple seconds later… its gone from his facebook page
I screenshot it…and a couple seconds later… its gone from his facebook page
Aren't models AI?
It's just taking millions of known data points and results and extrapolating it to current conditions.
Which is why this was hard to forecast. Not a lot of data points for major hurricanes in the Caribbean this early in the season.
It's just taking millions of known data points and results and extrapolating it to current conditions.
Which is why this was hard to forecast. Not a lot of data points for major hurricanes in the Caribbean this early in the season.
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