I trust Levi too.

Are others just…trying to gain popularity or…? Do they think it could happen? Do they think, hey there's at least one model so … it might happen?

From what I can tell most are storm chaser types; enthusiasts of storms

You gotta remember, it's a matter of budget and technology and purpose.

The European model is basically funded by the European countries and has big money behind it.
The GFS is NOAA and has US money behind it.

These are designed to be long range forecasting models that have to manage huge amounts of data.

There are other models HRRR and NAM that are super focused on 1 day out. Unable to do much beyond that timeframe.

So are others trying to get better? Sure, but that level of complexity takes time.

P.H. Dexippus said:

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Matagorda now in the cone?

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Yeah, so is Veracruz.

Wind speed down to 130mph

Is this the EURO model… now it's saying towards Houston? EURO is one main reliable model, yes?

What the heck…. I can't interpret what's being said. Why my nerves are shot.

⚠️ The 18z ECMWF ensemble shows #Beryl entering the Gulf of Mexico late Friday and re-intensifying over the weekend...

40-50% of members indicate an eventual impact across eastern Texas, particularly in the southern part of the state, on Monday.https://t.co/AVQ5QVIHkb

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 4, 2024

I wish i could interpret.

Yes. My parents flooded in Harvey and I couldn't help in the demolition or rebuild.

My house hasn't flooded but doesn't drain real well and last summer I had a 4 inch PVC drain put in and it's been working pretty well, but I tend to still get standing water in the front near that drain.

And I really can't explain why even moderate rainstorms raise my anxiety. Believe me, I don't understand it.

Now my parents are elderly and live two hours to the east and evacuations are needed. I will have to more than likely drive east and back west depending on the storms track.

I've learned a lot about Weather since hurricane Harvey and 2017 and I've been very fortunate to not have much damage. But trying to understand a lot of these forecast aside from what's presented on the local news is really conflicting.

I am almost 51 years old born and raised in Texas grew up in Southeast Texas. Golden triangle been through several hurricanes growing up and never thought of it as more than just a bad rainstorm, but that all changed after 2017 and hurricane Harvey.

I am never quite sure what it means to troll. I think it means somebody's just trying to tell a crazy fabricated story and I assure you, I am not trying to do that.

Next week I do have some counseling sessions lined up with my church . I'm going to start the process of trying to figure out what's going on..

Oh, and I don't drink alcohol somewhat hesitant to go on anti-anxiety medication's but I will let the doctor feels its best and I'm not a female .

Let's just get things back on track and discussing this storm .

Quote:

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The center of Beryl is a little to the north of the previous track,
and the latest initial motion estimate is 295/16 kt. A ridge
centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to turn more
westward during the next couple of days, taking the core of the
major hurricane just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and
across the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. The
ridge is expected to weaken late Friday, which should cause Beryl to
slow down and gain more latitude this weekend as it moves toward a
trough over the south-central U.S. The models are tightly
clustered through the Yucatan landfall, and given the pronounced
steering currents through that time, the NHC track forecast is of
high confidence. However, the spread in the models increase by the
time Beryl nears eastern Mexico and southern Texas and accordingly,
confidence in the details of the track forecast are low at long
range. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the
previous one and very near the various consensus aids.

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Duckhook said:

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JB!98 said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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That is just about perfect for the most needed areas to get rain. A little more North would be better, but getting the "Dirty" side of the storm would be awesome with the rain.

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As bad as Central Texas needs rain, so too do the two lakes behind the dams (Falcon and Amistad) on the Rio Grande.
Those lakes supply the municipal and agricultural water to the RGV. At historic low levels right now. Our sugar mill had to close permanently this year due to no water available to grow sugar cane. A $100 million dollar hit to the economy.

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It is unfortunate that it takes a storm like this to solve some of these problems, but it is what it is. Whomever gets this rain will be fortunate. It has has been this way in South Texas for all of my 53 years. It isn't always pretty.

JB!98 said:

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Duckhook said:

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JB!98 said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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That is just about perfect for the most needed areas to get rain. A little more North would be better, but getting the "Dirty" side of the storm would be awesome with the rain.

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As bad as Central Texas needs rain, so too do the two lakes behind the dams (Falcon and Amistad) on the Rio Grande.
Those lakes supply the municipal and agricultural water to the RGV. At historic low levels right now. Our sugar mill had to close permanently this year due to no water available to grow sugar cane. A $100 million dollar hit to the economy.

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It is unfortunate that it takes a storm like this to solve some of these problems, but it is what it is. Whomever gets this rain will be fortunate. It has has been this way in South Texas for all of my 53 years. It isn't always pretty.

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Yeah, just pointing out that there are a lot of people that need rain.

scd88 said:

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The Valley is going to get some much needed rain.

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Definitely - I was there not long ago and it was dry as a bone.

CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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Instead of getting in to the weeds, just follow this thread. We are generally all level headed and don't deal in rhetoric or fear porn.

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Except for cone and his bipolar posting.

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who would you rather? lil ol me or overly emotional man Matt Lanza?

scd88 said:

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The Valley is going to get some much needed rain.

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Looks like it. Got 4-5 inches a couple of weeks ago with the last system and this one looks perfect so far. Headed right to the reservoir although a forecast this far out I tend to believe that might be the one place it has no chance of hitting.

spadilly said:

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This is from Herzog's post last night:

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968mb as of 8AM update...

Cromagnum said:

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spadilly said:

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This is from Herzog's post last night:

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968mb as of 8AM update...

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Well crap...now its unclear to me if he's referencing plane recon measured pressure (~970) or extrapolated barometric pressure at sea level (>1,000).

Cromagnum said:

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spadilly said:

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This is from Herzog's post last night:

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968mb as of 8AM update...

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Yes, I think you are right here. Looks like we're screwed. Prepare the bleach.

Let's pretend I don't know anything about barometric pressure. Is the hurricane stronger if the number is lower?