Based on what we were sent this morning from our weather team, the Whale and Perdido sites are both within the 5 day cone of uncertainty, which likely means they will start the process now as to the points above it takes quite a whiletexsn95 said:Doesn't surprise me. It takes a monumental amount of effort, and time, to shut-in and make-ready these facilities, not to mention the personnel evacuations, since there are a finite number of choppers, and 1000s of folks to get off, at a 3-4 hour round-trip each way, max 16 POB. Starting with non-essential personnel first. Last month I went out to a construction vessel next to Shell's new Whale facility and it was about 1.5 hours 1-way, and is due south of Houston in Alaminos Canyon 772, so it would be in the direct path if it continued to turn North. Shell Perdido is a bit west of there too.CAR96 said:
Just heard that Shell is shutting down their oil and gas rigs out in the Gulf of Mexico? Anybody heard anything about that?
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I've learned a lot following this thread, thanks to all the knowledgeable posters who share good info
Afternoon model guidance seems to be slowly gaining more consensus on a track comfortably south of Houston and between South Padre and Tampico. pic.twitter.com/1VfM69lRtY
— Matt Lanza š¤š¼ (@mattlanza) July 3, 2024
I guess the track/forecast for the Greater Houston area is good-should mean a weaker storm if it continues to track towards South Texas/ Mexico.
What are the expectations of this thing once it hits land? Where does it drift and take that beautiful rain with it?
My Weather Underground app shows decent chances of rain starting Saturday and all next week. Is that related to this storm? I live in College Station.
My Weather Underground app shows decent chances of rain starting Saturday and all next week. Is that related to this storm? I live in College Station.
Ag83 said:
Follow the NHC. Period. Levi Cowan is #2 to follow.
This is the way. NHC has been pretty consistently pointing to a Northern Mexico/South Texas landfall for the last few days. They take all of the models into account, not just the GFS or ECMWF or whatever everyone's favorite model is. Aside from wobbles right before landfall, how often do they just seriously blow landfall a few days out? Not often at all to my recollection.
Mark me down for landfall 9 miles NNE of Port Mansfield, Texas.
Causes flooding as it hooks around SA, Austin and downstream.
Causes flooding as it hooks around SA, Austin and downstream.
Levi's (tropicaltidbits) latest update less than an hour ago. Good info with no hype.
Duckhook said:Ag83 said:
Follow the NHC. Period. Levi Cowan is #2 to follow.
This is the way. NHC has been pretty consistently pointing to a Northern Mexico/South Texas landfall for the last few days. They take all of the models into account, not just the GFS or ECMWF or whatever everyone's favorite model is. Aside from wobbles right before landfall, how often do they just seriously blow landfall a few days out? Not often at all to my recollection.
Ike was blown pretty bad. Watch how much the cone shifted over a week.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
WOW. That's wild. I don't remember it being that all-over-the-place.
At the end of the day, I want to see what this thing looks like once it passes the Yucatan and what the high pressure ridge looks like. I'll feel better if we get to that point and the forecast still points to the same general landfall area.Duckhook said:Ag83 said:
Follow the NHC. Period. Levi Cowan is #2 to follow.
This is the way. NHC has been pretty consistently pointing to a Northern Mexico/South Texas landfall for the last few days. They take all of the models into account, not just the GFS or ECMWF or whatever everyone's favorite model is. Aside from wobbles right before landfall, how often do they just seriously blow landfall a few days out? Not often at all to my recollection.
Cromagnum said:Duckhook said:Ag83 said:
Follow the NHC. Period. Levi Cowan is #2 to follow.
This is the way. NHC has been pretty consistently pointing to a Northern Mexico/South Texas landfall for the last few days. They take all of the models into account, not just the GFS or ECMWF or whatever everyone's favorite model is. Aside from wobbles right before landfall, how often do they just seriously blow landfall a few days out? Not often at all to my recollection.
Ike was blown pretty bad. Watch how much the cone shifted over a week.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
I'll grant you it moved around quite a bit through the entirety of that loop, but this is what they showed on the Monday before the Friday/Saturday landfall. Perfect? No, but good enough 4 days ahead of time to make plans.
[url=https://ibb.co/CJz0YJj]
[/url] For the sake of my in-laws in Bandera, I'm hopeful they see a ton of rain from this.Stat Monitor Repairman said:
Mark me down for landfall 9 miles NNE of Port Mansfield, Texas.
Causes flooding as it hooks around SA, Austin and downstream.
Odd trend to me with the more outlier models falling south.
Beat40 said:At the end of the day, I want to see what this thing looks like once it passes the Yucatan and what the high pressure ridge looks like. I'll feel better if we get to that point and the forecast still points to the same general landfall area.Duckhook said:Ag83 said:
Follow the NHC. Period. Levi Cowan is #2 to follow.
This is the way. NHC has been pretty consistently pointing to a Northern Mexico/South Texas landfall for the last few days. They take all of the models into account, not just the GFS or ECMWF or whatever everyone's favorite model is. Aside from wobbles right before landfall, how often do they just seriously blow landfall a few days out? Not often at all to my recollection.
Yeah. If this thing barely clips the Yucatan or misses it, and is still Cat 2 or higher, it's pucker time.
Has Frankie posted a video yet?
I think the models keep over-estimating how much it will weaken after passing Jamaica, and thus feel the lower steering currents moreso than the upper-level ones that would push it more to the North.AggieKO said:
Odd trend to me with the more outlier models falling south.
Matagorda now in the cone?
I thought a lot of the ensemble models were more in agreement that it was going to track towards the Texas Mexico border?
The one who retired?maroon barchetta said:
Has Frankie posted a video yet?
Project Gemini said:The one who retired?maroon barchetta said:
Has Frankie posted a video yet?
No, the autistic Newfie.
Yeah, if you watch that Tropical Tidbits update it's really going to depend on how strong/organized the storm stays through yucatan and how far north it crosses.P.H. Dexippus said:
Matagorda now in the cone?
Seems like there is still an outside (10%?) chance that it can stay strong, cross yucatan further north, and then turn north in gulf.
I think Lanza/SCW downplay this because it's unlikely and they don't want to freak everyone out, but it's still a possibility at this point.
Only God Himself bats 1.000 on these things. Unfortunately, He doesn't have a Twitter page or a website.
Serotonin said:Yeah, if you watch that Tropical Tidbits update it's really going to depend on how strong/organized the storm stays through yucatan and how far north it crosses.P.H. Dexippus said:
Matagorda now in the cone?
Seems like there is still an outside (10%?) chance that it can stay strong, cross yucatan further north, and then turn north in gulf.
I think Lanza/SCW downplay this because it's unlikely and they don't want to freak everyone out, but it's still a possibility at this point.
This. It's a crapshoot until Saturday morning when it has passed the Yucatn. Chances are, we will get some good rain, but you never know.
My works weather guy still maintains a 10-20% chance of a Houston impact.
So I can see why people are downplaying it a bit, because the odds are certainly against it, especially as the main models are starting to close.
So I can see why people are downplaying it a bit, because the odds are certainly against it, especially as the main models are starting to close.
Need some sort of live probability tracker like they have on ESPN's WSOP.
AgLiving06 said:
My works weather guy still maintains a 10-20% chance of a Houston impact.
So I can see why people are downplaying it a bit, because the odds are certainly against it, especially as the main models are starting to close.
He's showing 2-3 inches of rain next week for us, that seems like a win/win to me
Weather:
I know I should not but this is why I still am uneasy.
Can anyone speak to this possibility?
Can anyone speak to this possibility?
18z ICON has a 956 mb strong H3 near Matagorda Bay, TX on Mon morning.
— The Meteorological Eclipse (@reid_lt) July 3, 2024
As a chaser this is what youād want to see as itās strengthening meaning stronger sustained winds come down to the surface.
As a resident this is the last thing youād want to see.
*Not a forecast. pic.twitter.com/h7WKtJ5Z8V
A single model run on a less than ideal model? If you should worry it's not because of this tweet.
Any truth that the ICON has been really good at tracking this storm?
In general the Euro and the GFS (American) models are the top models. UK is kind of in the second tier.
Just looking at previous runs of the ICON, it's been wildly different. This is what it showed yesterday, which no other model has even hinted at.
Edit: So arguably, now that it's come further west is showing it slowly coming into alignment with the other models.
Just looking at previous runs of the ICON, it's been wildly different. This is what it showed yesterday, which no other model has even hinted at.
Edit: So arguably, now that it's come further west is showing it slowly coming into alignment with the other models.
When Levi discusses things with model predictions, can't think of a single time he has used the ICON model. Says what I need to know.
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