Duckhook said:

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Official forecast still has it as a tropical storm coming in just south of the RGV. But everything seems to be trending north with each new update.
[url=https://ibb.co/LpvX381][/url]

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Sea Speed said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Maybe my eyes are bad but this looks pretty similar to the last update

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Maybe my eyes are bad but this looks pretty similar to the last update

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gougler08 said:

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From our company weather guy (major O&G)

If Beryl were to take a track into the greater Houston area, the approximate landfall would be sometime Monday or early Tuesday. Based on this afternoon's ECMWF ensemble guidance, I put the chances of a direct impact in South Texas at 20-30% and 10-20% in Southeast Texas (Houston/Galveston) and Southwest Louisiana (Lake Charles area)

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texsn95 said:

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gougler08 said:

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From our company weather guy (major O&G)

If Beryl were to take a track into the greater Houston area, the approximate landfall would be sometime Monday or early Tuesday. Based on this afternoon's ECMWF ensemble guidance, I put the chances of a direct impact in South Texas at 20-30% and 10-20% in Southeast Texas (Houston/Galveston) and Southwest Louisiana (Lake Charles area)

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Are y'all prepping for any shut-ins?

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JD Shellnut said:

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Predicting landfall at Indianola.

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Quote:

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I need to say some words to people in Houston. We are getting blasted by a few of you for apparently underselling the real threat from Beryl. If you read the post below, we've taken a very down the middle, neutral stance on the storm, explaining how it is still likely to pass to the south, though if it were to not weaken as much as forecast over the next 36 hours, it could come a bit farther to the north. We even went so far as to show the European ensemble models with the distribution of some closer to southeast Texas and others in Mexico, and we explained how this could be and what to watch for. I'm not quite sure what isn't resonating with some people, but those are the facts. Here is a look at today's most recent European ensemble members, 51 of them:

Of the 51 members, 5 of them or 9.8 percent bring Beryl into the Houston area or Louisiana. This is down from 8 earlier this morning. If you would rather the GFS Ensemble, 4 of the ensemble members, or about 13 percent bring it to Texas or Louisiana, the same as earlier. Roughly one tropical model (the HWRF) brings Beryl to Houston. The HWRF historically would handle a weakening tropical system poorly, so I would be apt to discount it in my weighting as a meteorologist with a number of years of experience tracking and forecasting these things.

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Twisted Helix said:

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Indianola was basically wiped off the map by a hurricane in the late 1800's. I assume that's what the poster was referencing.

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