I think people significantly overestimate the impact of vouchers.
If the argument is "private schools will just increase their tuition to match the voucher" than that means no additional kids go to private school right? If they can't afford it today, they can't afford it tomorrow
However, even if a school didn't raise their tuition, it's not like the voucher covers the tuition. A quick google search says the voucher would be roughly $6-7k. If we assume a low tuition of $15k or even $20k, that's still a serious hurdle for many to overcome. And little is "free" at private schools, meaning paying for lunch, childcare, sports, etc. makes it more expensive.
Presumably the alternative is still a free option at public schools.
So would there likely be some marginal change at existing private schools? Sure, but is it going to be this huge swarm that overwhelms everywhere? I don't think so.
If the argument is "private schools will just increase their tuition to match the voucher" than that means no additional kids go to private school right? If they can't afford it today, they can't afford it tomorrow
However, even if a school didn't raise their tuition, it's not like the voucher covers the tuition. A quick google search says the voucher would be roughly $6-7k. If we assume a low tuition of $15k or even $20k, that's still a serious hurdle for many to overcome. And little is "free" at private schools, meaning paying for lunch, childcare, sports, etc. makes it more expensive.
Presumably the alternative is still a free option at public schools.
So would there likely be some marginal change at existing private schools? Sure, but is it going to be this huge swarm that overwhelms everywhere? I don't think so.