I like this logic, but we all know the CAD isn't even looking at listing data.

Take my example a few posts up about the house in my BF's neighborhood. Owners did an off-market sale to Open Door last June or July. Sales price was $455k (give or take).

Open Door listed it on 8/2 for $489,900. Between Aug 2 and Feb 23 there were 14 price reductions.

On 12/8 the house was listed for $449,900; on Jan 6 the price was reduced to $439,900.

The market value for 2023 is $451,089 (up from $345,498 in 2022).

One could argue that $451k isn't that far off from what Open Door paid last summer, $449,900 or $439,900, but Open Door wasn't able to sell the house until this month, and it sold for $400k.

But HCAD jacked my BF's value up to $430k, and his house is 700 sq ft smaller.

The irony is, HCAD accuses property owners of cherry picking data when we protest, but they essentially do the same thing. It's pretty clear the market peaked last spring, before interest rates went up, but HCAD is conveniently ignoring that fact.

I honestly have no idea what comps they could have possibly used to value my house at $524k because a slightly bigger home literally right across the street sold for $465k last year.

77062

Bought our house March '22, submitting our homestead exemption today (4/30 deadline). Got the protest paperwork in the mail showing no exemptions as of Jan 1, 2023. Should I submit a protest stating that I'm submitting the exemption and the value is wrong, in an to attempt to make sure that things go through?

Appraised value is about 43% higher than '22.

-homeowner newb

We are a small shop and have around 2,000 total accounts from residential to commercial and personal property.

At my firm we work every property and run it through our models. We go page by page of the CADs evidence. What separates us from the big firms is we look at each account and work the account 1 by 1 where as the big shops print out quick reports and the consultant looks at it the moment they start the hearing.

I have always been a flat fee firm on residential bc it takes so much time and work. We have some that are percentage but it is less than 50 accounts and they are there when I started back in 2020. A lot of clients prefer the flat rate bc it is a fixed fee they know each and every year.

What fee?

I might be interested this year. I have a feeling they can't budge this year regardless of info presented.

Depends on the the value of your home. Any TexAgs person who contacts me I take $50 off. Just state it in the additional info box.

www.hataxgroup.com

Market value up 25% in 77375. Interestingly, improvement value went down a tiny amount but land value nearly doubled. Is this some sort of tactic so it is harder to protest?

Lol, what a clown show

Read that this morning. Didn't they just increased it last year as well?

Diggity said:

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Don't worry folks, in addition to getting boned by property taxes, City just sent out letters that they're increasing water/sewer charges by 10%+

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Well, how else are they supposed to get their 10% if you don't have a MUD tax?!?

Diggity said:

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Don't worry folks, in addition to getting boned by property taxes, City just sent out letters that they're increasing water/sewer charges by 10%+

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I just emailed my congresswoman/ mayoral candidate to see what she's says

For those that did not see or receive this:

How many of the libs in the county and city claimed inflation wasn't up? And to add 1% because the population grew 1%? How does that math work out?

Curiosity kinda got the better of me and I spent a little time looking at property that was listed for sale on January 1, first in just my neighborhood which was extremely compelling, but you know is not a lot of data points in just one neighborhood, so then I looked at the zip code.

Basically for every property that was an active listing on January 1, Im kinda just taking an indication of market which is either just the listing price, or a reduced listing price if it was subsequently lowered or a sale price if it sold which is used no matter ff its higher or lower. Then I see if the 2023 CAD market value appraisal is roughly equivalent to that market indication from the listing/sale for that property.

From experience I thought this would end up being a waste of time. I figured I'd find out that like 60-65% were appraised high and the rest were low. I've gotten through analyzing like close to 75-100 properties so far, and while a few are pending still with the CAD, for those where a comparison can made, I think 95% of these accounts are overappraised. And not just barely overappraised either. They are overappraised by 15-20% usually.

I've never been a "screw the CAD" guy and I think most years they are just wrong and can be wrong both ways. And for a lot of years I thought their residential value was more likely to be low than high, especially for agent represented property. This year though, there are accounts in this dataset where its been listed for 600k since last November and the CAD 1/1 value is $840k and its not even that extreme of an outlier compared to the rest.

I think this year it might be that almost every single residential account in the whole county that they've used their models to appraise might be high.

I think values are basically flat from January last year to January this year. But they have a hump in their data still from the middle of last year that they are catching up on, and then instead of the hump, they are also projecting that price growth forward for the rest of 2022 also when it wasn't there.

Either that or inflation has totally ruined their cost models that they use to make adjustments, butIi think if it was that, then theyd be way off both directions on many accounts.

Brenner said:

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How effective would the argument be that their appraisals suck in general? Looking at current listings in HAR and the market values in HCAD for houses around me, every listing is under the HCAD market value.

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To answer this question, now that I actually think I believe that their appraisals really do suck in general...

My advice would be that this type of evidence doesn't really have a lot of validity just on its own. Its kinda more like rebuttal evidence, where you're saying their number sucks, but I wouldn't expect a board to make a change solely based on it.

What I think a strategy could be, is to make sure and have your own comparable sales and adjustments that show your own value conclusion and that's your main evidence, and then you also have this, as an "oh by the way their number probably sucks" and here are all the examples of that. Then the evidence that they have to consider is 1) your work, plus 2) the CADs work, and 3) your evidence that the CAD does bad work. Just going in and saying "all their appraisals are 20% high" is not as good as going in with your own workup that shows a 20% reduction, and then supporting it with data showing that their appraisals are usually 20% high. Then its more compelling support for your number and gives them an explanation of why its coming out different from their number rather than just "their appraisal sucks" in a vacuum by itself.

Unfortunately, your mileage will vary depending on their ability to understand and willingness to consider the evidence at all.

Any idea when values will be loaded for Montgomery County. I got my notice of increase in the mail but the online service is still not showing updated values. Hard to research if values aren't there.

Ours finally came out in 77009 - up over 35%. Crazy.

Teddy Perkins said:

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Who do yall suggest? Who is McGibblets co? https://www.hataxgroup.com/

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Submitted a request to HA Tax Group, no response or call back.

Any idea when Jubally will open up?

Tormentos said:

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Teddy Perkins said:

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Who do yall suggest? Who is McGibblets co? https://www.hataxgroup.com/

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Submitted a request to HA Tax Group, no response or call back.

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Currently at the Masters. My ladies are working the emails from oldest to newest.

77079 - market value up 60%…

Guessing they must have taken the most expensive house in the neighborhood sold as a comp and prorated mine. Insane.

Is there a way to argue they overvalued an entire neighborhood? We had an empty lot sell and based on that HCAD roughly doubled the land value of all the homes in my neighborhood. Our total values are now more on a PSF basis than nicer neighborhoods around us and way above sold / list prices. They're going to screw over a lot of people who don't protest.

My neighborhood average PSF sold in the last 6 months is $147, but average in HCAD for market is $172. Am I SOL since the increase was mostly land or will they reduce my improvement value significantly even though my neighborhood isn't a teardown neighborhood?

They will not budge on the land value if you're in a subdivision unless your lot is unique (corner, next to a Dollar Store, Indian burial ground, etc). In which case you'll see a "factor" adjustment to your land.

Either way, you'll argue total value and if successful, they'll adjust the improvement value to match.

Cru, looks like Jubally is live or close to it. Do you have a promo code?

Right there with you.. 77079 up 65%

60% + is absolutely bananas.

Does jubally provide actual sales comps from MLS as part of their evidence?

Is the adjustment downwards if you have a corner lot?

has anybody on here already done an informal online protest for this year?

Brazoria County. Appraised capped at 10%, but valuation went up $104k.

10Aggie10 said:

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has anybody on here already done an informal online protest for this year?

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I did. Haven't gotten anything back. I did it for myself and two family members for past two years with some success. Hoping it works out again.

In Fort Bend and don't want to protest myself.

Currently using O'Conner, should I be using someone else? Recomendations?

cena05 said:

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In Fort Bend and don't want to protest myself.

Currently using O'Conner, should I be using someone else? Recomendations?

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I've been using O'Conner for a few years with no complaints.