Most of these shopping centers have huge debt payments so it's going to be a ripple effect.

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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Part of the reason for the money is bills but also for people to have disposable income and actually spend it to jump start the economy

Kinda like walking into a casino and they pay you $20 as you walk in the door.
Do you put it in your pocket to pay the valet with later? No, you drop it on red and try and double it

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Not an apples to apples example as casinos don't actually give you the $20. They'll give you $20 in promo chips that are worthless unless you win your bet.

If you got a pool and nice yard inside the beltway I'll be looking lol

Proposition Joe said:

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Texan_Aggie said:

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jja79 said:

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Ducks is spot on I think. A lot of people are going to have less disposable income for quite a while. People for the most part will be cautious.

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While I see your point, I would be curious to see how much of the disposable income really did change pre and post lockdown.

Said another way, I would suspect that most "white collar" (using someone else's words above) jobs are likely uninterrupted in the immediate term as a lot of these can be shifted to WFH arrangements. Absent layoffs here, disposable income should have remained consistent and a bounce back would seem quicker. WFH would allow companies to continue work and the employees to continue to receive paychecks

For those persons who either lost their job or lost income because of it, the question is how much of that income was originally "disposable" and being spent on retail/restaurants/etc. I would suspect, and I'm drawing generalizations, but a majority of these type of jobs aren't creating much "disposable income" on a per person basis.

I don't know, but I would suspect this is more about socioeconomic class and the establishments attracting middle/upper class folks will rebound much quicker than those attracting the lower class. What's the proportion or distribution of that? I have no clue.

I live in central Houston and I suspect most businesses will bounce back in this area rather quickly. Most my neighbors haven't seen anything change other than they are home and not an office.

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You are way underestimating how many white collar jobs will be lost (or already have been).

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Possibly. I do think there'll be some, but I don't have any grasp for the magnitude nor does anyone other than "feeling". Our Company is not intending to cut jobs due to the downturn other than low performers, can't say others will or won't. I think the price of oil will be much more burdensome to our city than the virus, though they are related.

jja79 said:

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A lot of high income earners are production based. Production is going to be lean for a lot of those people. Income reductions to follow. Have you seen the auto sales numbers? Realtor showings numbers? People in O&G either riffed or afraid it's to come?

I guess I'm white collar and definitely a consumer. Been in the business world 41 years. Eat out 5 or 6 nights a week and until the past couple of weeks haven't given it a second thought. Now one set of country club dues is going away and I'm learning to love ham sandwiches all over again.

I guarantee you the all clear won't get me back to spending money until it looks like it's sustained. I don't think I'm alone.

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Which one?

Would this be a good time to buy a second home? First realtor to purchase stars and send me a DM gets the commish...

(I'm kidding; don't really do that)

True, and everyone will handle it differently. While I don't suspect every white collar will bounce back immediately, my expectation would be the general trend of which to bounce back and rather quickly. Could be the bubble I live and work in which is 20-40 yo office workers. Those are itching to get back out and resume normal life.

Just curious, how long before you stop the ham sandwiches and go back to eating out one the plateau occurs?

jja79 said:

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A lot of high income earners are production based. Production is going to be lean for a lot of those people. Income reductions to follow. Have you seen the auto sales numbers? Realtor showings numbers? People in O&G either riffed or afraid it's to come?

I guess I'm white collar and definitely a consumer. Been in the business world 41 years. Eat out 5 or 6 nights a week and until the past couple of weeks haven't given it a second thought. Now one set of country club dues is going away and I'm learning to love ham sandwiches all over again.

I guarantee you the all clear won't get me back to spending money until it looks like it's sustained. I don't think I'm alone.

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Bullseye.

Shepherd Plaza is a more complicated deal. They've been trying to bulldoze that whole center for years but the original owner signed some dumb leases and some of the tenants won't leave.

Diggity said:

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Shepherd Plaza is a more complicated deal. They've been trying to bulldoze that whole center for years but the original owner signed some dumb leases and some of the tenants won't leave.

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Shepherd Plaza is BACK IN BUSINESS

Thanks Mr. Plotsky

jja79 said:

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A lot of high income earners are production based. Production is going to be lean for a lot of those people. Income reductions to follow. Have you seen the auto sales numbers? Realtor showings numbers? People in O&G either riffed or afraid it's to come?

I guess I'm white collar and definitely a consumer. Been in the business world 41 years. Eat out 5 or 6 nights a week and until the past couple of weeks haven't given it a second thought. Now one set of country club dues is going away and I'm learning to love ham sandwiches all over again.

I guarantee you the all clear won't get me back to spending money until it looks like it's sustained. I don't think I'm alone.

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The shutdown of elective surgery is going to hit hard on a lot of docs. Their practices are generally very overhead intensive.

Regrettably - you are spot on.

Shepherd Plaza is ground leased to HEB; fee title is owned by two brothers out of Holland or Belgium. Allegedly.

I'm itching to get back out and resume a normal life too. Heck I'm 63. I have a lot less time than you.

I don't see me getting back to my past spending habits for 90 days or more after it seems all clear.

I'll share this with you too. I'm very fortunate to belong to a private club with a very high initiation fee. I've talked to two long time members who are giving up their memberships at the end of this month. These are guys in my age range, not some young kids who bit off more than they can chew. There was to have been a dues increase April 1 and the decision was made to postpone that. When they make a decision like this it tells me there's concern among people who run businesses, are decision makers but who still are mindful of the seriousness of this.

ChipFTAC01 said:

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I am in CRE and we're going to see a lot of that. I've had one tenant ask so far for rent concessions. I imagine there are more to come.

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Same here. But the sticking point on a lot of leases will be whether or not lenders will approve those modifications to leases. A whole lot of CRE financing gives lenders a lot of rights to approve/reject lease terms.

TarponChaser said:

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ChipFTAC01 said:

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I am in CRE and we're going to see a lot of that. I've had one tenant ask so far for rent concessions. I imagine there are more to come.

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Same here. But the sticking point on a lot of leases will be whether or not lenders will approve those modifications to leases. A whole lot of CRE financing gives lenders a lot of rights to approve/reject lease terms.

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Won't it be in the lenders best interest to do so or end up up **** creek themselves?

Some additional info I got from a different source today.

Quote:

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County Information
COVID-19 Cases: Montgomery County Public Health District, in conjunction with Montgomery County Office of Emergency Management, can confirm Montgomery County now has 31 positive cases of COVID-19, an increase of 8 from yesterday. We would like to emphasize the importance of staying home if you are able and social distancing. The virus is now in all parts of our county. Regardless of exactly where these patients reside, it is spreading in the community. Increased hygiene practices, like frequent hand washing and surface disinfecting, are imperative. As of 3 p.m. today, MCPHD has been notified of 241 negative and 31 positive test results of county residents. Results are pending for another 149 residents. View press release from MCPHD.

Harris County COVID-19 Case Count
Harris County Public Health (HCPH) has confirmed, as of 3 p.m. today, 40 new cases of COVID-19, which brings the total to 119 positive cases, including one COVID-19 related death, reported on March 19, 2020. HCPH is also confirming that 13 of our patients have recovered. These new cases do not include those within the City of Houston. Link to news release.

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At least we own everything outright that I manage. If we decide to do a lease modification it's just an internal discussion

IrishTxAggie said:

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Proposition Joe said:

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Texan_Aggie said:

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True, and everyone will handle it differently. While I don't suspect every white collar will bounce back immediately, my expectation would be the general trend of which to bounce back and rather quickly. Could be the bubble I live and work in which is 20-40 yo office workers. Those are itching to get back out and resume normal life.

Just curious, how long before you stop the ham sandwiches and go back to eating out one the plateau occurs?

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I know 3-4 white collar people who have already been let go.

And we're just 2 weeks into this.

The unemployment #'s they are floating aren't pretty - we haven't even seen the tip of the job loss iceberg.

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Unfortunately for Houston even after we're passed the COVID19, if the market share war is still going on between KSA and Russia, our outlook is not good

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That's the bigger issue to me. I suspect much of the local economy will come back pretty quickly, but not to what it was unless oil goes north of $50/bbl, at least. As diversified as we are, price per barrel still rules.

Actually, the housing market is still pretty strong. There are currently more buyers than sellers in many parts of the area, and that might just increase as many sellers will want to wait until they feel more confident to put their house on the market. Unlike previously, we don't have predatory lenders, bad mortgages, overvalued housing,or a glut of houses available.

Thanks. I live in Pearland and the market there has been pretty good.

I by no means am discounting the nastiest of this virus, but articles written like this that doesn't add anything and only goes to cause panic..."a staggering amount of new cases....". City of Houston literally has 66 total cases reported so far.

https://abc13.com/health/houston-area-poised-to-cross-400-coronavirus-cases/6047144/

Has anyone seen any updated stats on number of tests administered in our area?

note.. thats 185 total cases, because Houston and Harris County are reporting separately.

We have the capacity for 500 per day, but no clue if that many are being administered.

98Ag99Grad said:

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gonna be so much fun trying to sell my house this summer. can't wait.

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My neighbors just put their on the market. What a nightmare that must be.

I built a new home and moved last summer. Thank god I didn't have to deal with this then.

And thank god my job can WFH (and our products are seeing some increased demand currently, but that could subside in future months if people don't have as much disposable income). MY wife is a teacher so thank goodness she is also getting paid and still currently working albeit in a much different manner.

they wear masks

Dang that sucks. Hoping to not be joining you

I think you're right about masks.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30229968/