Thats because Italy is "shutting down"Quote:
This is assuming you think 30-40% of America gets the disease...which seems like an incredibly pessimistic view of it considering even Italy still has a <0.1% infection rate today
BMX Bandit said:Thats because Italy is "shutting down"Quote:
This is assuming you think 30-40% of America gets the disease...which seems like an incredibly pessimistic view of it considering even Italy still has a <0.1% infection rate today
30-40% of the US population probably would get it if precautions were not being taken
Agree, I don't think it would remain that low without something being done, but not sure shutting down our country for weeks was needed either. Oh well, it's done now so hopefully this nips it in the bud over the next few weeks and then we can rebuildjenn96 said:
Agree. Based on current numbers of cases the shutdowns are an overreaction. But infectious disease specialists seem to think that if this thing keeps running unchecked then that is likely the end result. I genuinely don't know. But a lot of very smart people (who are not Democrats or members of the media) seem legitimately concerned. And what does seem clear is that by the time the reality of the problem is big enough to be easily seen it will be out of control.
k2aggie07 said:
Think guys. What ends an epidemic?
What have you seen in the past three months, as this thing started from 1 case in China, that makes you think it's going to just stop?
If you want to be optimistic about something, don't hope for it to end. Hope for a large percentage of people to be asymptomatic carriers.
Yep. My wife and I aren't aligned on what we feel the best thing to do is. She's all for shut it down and make us stay in where I'm against that and am looking at the long-term impact to the economy. One thing I've told her is that freedom can sometimes be uncomfortable.Quote:
And yes, I realize the counter is the 'at risk" won't stay isolated, but that's the freedoms we give to people in this country.
And there was rumor on at least one of these threads that most of the original Italian cases traced back to a single delivery driver. Something that will still happen if you have grubhub or other forms of social isolation.aTm2004 said:
Italians also live on top of one another. Majority of Americans don't live in high rises with several hundred people in it. The comparison to Italy is just silly given the age demographics, lifestyle differences, etc.
And how do you propose you keep the at risk isolated? round them all up and put them in the astrodome? Are the elderly supposed to avoid contact with the hired or related care takers? Are those fighting cancer or with any other conditions that compromise their immune condition supposed to avoid all medical care and contact with their family members who are out "building immunity." Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death. My dad would consider himself healthy but he wheezes up a storm after any cold. Many who dont even think of themselves as being at-risk probably are.AgLiving06 said:k2aggie07 said:
Think guys. What ends an epidemic?
What have you seen in the past three months, as this thing started from 1 case in China, that makes you think it's going to just stop?
If you want to be optimistic about something, don't hope for it to end. Hope for a large percentage of people to be asymptomatic carriers.
The only thing that's going to "stop" this is a vaccine or treatment option.
Nothing we've done so far stops it. We've merely slowed it down.
So based on current stats, we are willing to risk the livelihood between 97%-99% of the population to protect the fraction.
Instead we should be isolating the fraction while letting the majority build the necessary antibodies/immunities.
And yes, I realize the counter is the 'at risk" won't stay isolated, but that's the freedoms we give to people in this country.
Never said it doesn't. Let's take a stomach bug for example. Do you think it will spread more rapidly in a dormitory or a neighborhood with single family homes?k2aggie07 said:
Does the flu not go through Kansas, Texas, Tennessee, every year?
Not sure about how it started in Italy, but I agree about GrubHub, etc. That's why I've asked that if it's so bad, why are airports and public transportation still open and operating?Bondag said:And there was rumor on at least one of these threads that most of the original Italian cases traced back to a single delivery driver. Something that will still happen if you have grubhub or other forms of social isolation.aTm2004 said:
Italians also live on top of one another. Majority of Americans don't live in high rises with several hundred people in it. The comparison to Italy is just silly given the age demographics, lifestyle differences, etc.
More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
aTm2004 said:
So compare NYC and lock down NYC if you need to. Don't compare Italy to Kansas, Texas, Tennessee, etc because things are completely different.
In that case, their poor health choices impact only themselves directly. I wont get heart disease because someone else thinks the fajitas for 2 with extra butter sauce is a special cheat code in their quest for keto gold.aTm2004 said:More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
aTm2004 said:More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
If you think being an abnormally large fatty only impacts themselves, you're blind. Higher insurance costs to us all, calories identified on menus, etc.cajunaggie08 said:In that case, their poor health choices impact only themselves directly. I wont get heart disease because someone else thinks the fajitas for 2 with extra butter sauce is a special cheat code in their quest for keto gold.aTm2004 said:More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
Now that you mention it...#metooDucks4brkfast said:aTm2004 said:More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
Making me hangry rn
I'm not blind to it. I know everyone's health choice affect my pocketbook as insurance companies pass more of the cost burden onto employers who pass that on to employees by enacting higher premiums. But as you said, "freedom can sometimes be uncomfortable."aTm2004 said:If you think being an abnormally large fatty only impacts themselves, you're blind. Higher insurance costs to us all, calories identified on menus, etc.cajunaggie08 said:In that case, their poor health choices impact only themselves directly. I wont get heart disease because someone else thinks the fajitas for 2 with extra butter sauce is a special cheat code in their quest for keto gold.aTm2004 said:More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
Quote:
Based on modeling done by epidemiologists, the state expects the outbreak to peak in 45 days.
Given the current rate of spread of the disease in New York and the current hospitalization rate for people sickened by the disease, the governor said the state will need somewhere between 55,000 and 110,000 hospital beds and as many as 18,600 to 37,200 ICU beds for the number of people who will need hospital care at the peak of the outbreak.
The state has only 53,000 hospital beds statewide and they are, on average, 80% occupied, Cuomo said. That leaves 10,600 available hospital beds in the state.
The state has only 3,000 ICU beds, the governor said, with 600 available as of Saturday.
The point is that it will spread much faster in one environment vs another, so giving a blanket "it's happened in X so it will happen in Y" is silly because Italy and the US are not similar in our way of lives. One can't look at what's happening in Italy and think we're going to follow the same path, because we're not due to several factors that differentiate us.Quote:
Asking whether a stomach bug or any virus spreads fast or slow in a dorm is a question that doesn't give any information by the answer. This kind of virus will spread quicker in some places - dorms, cruise ships, nursing homes, dirty chinese urban environments - and more slowly in others. But that only changes the time scale on the log curve, not the shape of the graph.
You and/or your elderly parents aren't going to die because of somebody else's uncontrolled heart disease...aTm2004 said:If you think being an abnormally large fatty only impacts themselves, you're blind. Higher insurance costs to us all, calories identified on menus, etc.cajunaggie08 said:In that case, their poor health choices impact only themselves directly. I wont get heart disease because someone else thinks the fajitas for 2 with extra butter sauce is a special cheat code in their quest for keto gold.aTm2004 said:More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
This! IF you have the funds available and your income is not at risk, now would be a GREAT time to hire local businesses to pressure wash your house, landscape your yard, get a new roof, put in that patio you've been wanting, etc.CDUB98 said:
Remember who the real enemy is here: FluManChu
People are never going to fully agree on the measures to take. Acknowledge that and work together to keep the economy afloat as much as you can.
My uncle's BIL spent a couple of months in ICU and will need a cane for the rest of his life because Ol Boy driving home after a drive thru stop at JITB had a heart attack and swerved into his lane, hitting him head on at 60+. You're right, he didn't die, just had his life changed forever.txags92 said:You and/or your elderly parents aren't going to die because of somebody else's uncontrolled heart disease...aTm2004 said:If you think being an abnormally large fatty only impacts themselves, you're blind. Higher insurance costs to us all, calories identified on menus, etc.cajunaggie08 said:In that case, their poor health choices impact only themselves directly. I wont get heart disease because someone else thinks the fajitas for 2 with extra butter sauce is a special cheat code in their quest for keto gold.aTm2004 said:More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
Ok, two can play this little pedantic game. It wasn't uncontrolled heart disease that caused your uncle's BIL to be injured, it was the decision to drive with heart disease that caused the issue. Therefore we should just ban all people with heart disease from driving and the problem is solved. Thanks for playing!aTm2004 said:My uncle's BIL spent a couple of months in ICU and will need a cane for the rest of his life because Ol Boy driving home after a drive thru stop at JITB had a heart attack and swerved into his lane, hitting him head on at 60+. You're right, he didn't die, just had his life changed forever.txags92 said:You and/or your elderly parents aren't going to die because of somebody else's uncontrolled heart disease...aTm2004 said:If you think being an abnormally large fatty only impacts themselves, you're blind. Higher insurance costs to us all, calories identified on menus, etc.cajunaggie08 said:In that case, their poor health choices impact only themselves directly. I wont get heart disease because someone else thinks the fajitas for 2 with extra butter sauce is a special cheat code in their quest for keto gold.aTm2004 said:More Americans die daily from heart disease (per CDC) than have died total from the Kung Flu, but nobody thinks twice about stuffing a 1200 calorie lunch from Chick-Fil-A into their mouths and then sit down and munch on another 2000 calories for dinner at Pappasitos.Quote:
Seeing how obese our population is, id be willing to expect many have weak or sub-optimal lung capacity where pneumonia would take them near death.
The article didn't have that much detail.Bondag said:
What is included in the bed count?
Ideally everyone that needs a bed gets a bed, but what is needed?
If you are at a nursing home with Medgas do you need a hospital bed, or can you get the same level of care where you are? I know Seattle had a poor track record with this, but we know a lot more about what they are dealing with now.
