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Tine Coronavirus thread

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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to TXTransplant • 8:02p, 3/16/20
AG
TXTransplant said:
07fta07 said:
So no, we haven't. We've limited things, but we haven't shut down the public.

Take some responsibility for yourself. If you're worried, stay home. I'm not, (although now I'm concerned about the mess this has turned into for the economy, my job, etc. due to the ridiculous overreaction about some already unhealthy people in their 80's dying a year earlier than they were going to - yes there are exceptions) but if this thing is gonna take me out then it's just gonna happen.


Yes and no. I have my own opinions about what should be done, but it's pointless to argue about it here.

But, when people behave irresponsibly, I'm not shocked when others step in to make decisions for us all - whether that's employers or private industries or the government.

And the public isn't completely shut down. I would argue restaurants have been severely limited. But they aren't completely shut down.


How about bars? Where literally their entire business model is reliant on socialization.
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07fta07
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8:09p, 3/16/20
AG
Well that's no longer allowed. Yep, you can't go to a bar at any time of the day on any day in Houston, TX. Aunt Bethany was already gonna struggle to make it though the year but we gotta shut this whole thing down so she doesn't kick the can a couple months early.
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suburban cowboy
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8:09p, 3/16/20
AG
We have officially entered the Twilight Zone
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TXTransplant
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 8:10p, 3/16/20
IrishTxAggie said:
TXTransplant said:
07fta07 said:
So no, we haven't. We've limited things, but we haven't shut down the public.

Take some responsibility for yourself. If you're worried, stay home. I'm not, (although now I'm concerned about the mess this has turned into for the economy, my job, etc. due to the ridiculous overreaction about some already unhealthy people in their 80's dying a year earlier than they were going to - yes there are exceptions) but if this thing is gonna take me out then it's just gonna happen.


Yes and no. I have my own opinions about what should be done, but it's pointless to argue about it here.

But, when people behave irresponsibly, I'm not shocked when others step in to make decisions for us all - whether that's employers or private industries or the government.

And the public isn't completely shut down. I would argue restaurants have been severely limited. But they aren't completely shut down.


How about bars? Where literally their entire business model is reliant on socialization.


Point taken about the bars. I'm honestly not sure what the right answer is.

There are businesses in my area proactively closing (even though they aren't required to) because they feel it's the right/safe thing to do.

There is a thread in the other forum talking about how the ADA is strongly advising all dental practices to close to all patients but emergencies.

But, as I said before, as a society, we haven't done ourselves any favors. Italy tried to give their citizens the opportunity to practice social distancing, and it didn't work.

Everybody is losing in this situation. It's hard for me to feel any worse for one group (restaurants and bars) than I do for any other. This is awful for everyone.
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Zobel
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In reply to 07fta07 • 8:10p, 3/16/20
AG
Psst. Doesn't just kill 80 year olds.

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Jet Black
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8:14p, 3/16/20
Kills 70 and up at a much higher clip than anyone else.
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Zobel
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In reply to Jet Black • 8:15p, 3/16/20
AG
That's true for almost every disease.
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Jet Black
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8:21p, 3/16/20
It doesn't just kill 80 years olds, obviously, but I'd wager that the people in 70-79 category, that have died, are much closer to 80 than 70. So it predominately kills 80ish year old people and older.
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07fta07
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In reply to Zobel • 8:22p, 3/16/20
AG
k2aggie07 said:
Psst. Doesn't just kill 80 year olds.


It's a much higher percentage at 80+. And I did say there are exceptions. Look you're either gonna get it or you're not. You're responsible for you. You make the decisions that make sense for you. Lina ******* Hidalgo should not be making the decisions for you and frankly it's terrifying that anyone is listening to that clown.
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Zobel
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In reply to 07fta07 • 8:26p, 3/16/20
AG
Not listening to anyone. My opinion has nothing to do with Harris county officials.

The progression is always - it's the flu. It's not that deadly. It only kills 80 year olds. It's the same as H1N1. Etc etc.

And then it ends with "well if I get I get it".

lets just skip to the - I only am pretty much worried about my own exposure or inconvenience and don't really care about anything else. It will make all of this simpler.
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RK
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8:32p, 3/16/20
AG
Wonder what the equivalent chart for the flu looks like.
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TXTransplant
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In reply to Zobel • 8:33p, 3/16/20
k2aggie07 said:
Not listening to anyone. My opinion has nothing to do with Harris county officials.

The progression is always - it's the flu. It's not that deadly. It only kills 80 year olds. It's the same as H1N1. Etc etc.

And then it ends with "well if I get I get it".

lets just skip to the - I only am pretty much worried about my own exposure or inconvenience and don't really care about anything else. It will make all of this simpler.


And therein lies the problem. I said a few posts back that we are a NIMBY culture. No one wants this virus to affect them, but no one wants to be inconvenienced in order to contain it.

But I'd bet my next paycheck that, after all this dies down, there will be hundreds, if not thousands of lawsuits blaming others for not "preventing" exposure - nursing homes, airlines, businesses, etc.

Not only do people not want to be inconvenienced, they don't want to be accountable for their own decisions.

Edited to add: I think one of the cruise lines is already being sued.
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cone
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In reply to RK • 8:36p, 3/16/20
AG
similar but the mortality rates are lower by close to an order of magnitude
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combat wombat™
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8:37p, 3/16/20
AG
Pregnant women and recently pregnant wpmen have been added to the higher risk group, at least in UK.
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Matilda
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8:46p, 3/16/20
AG
Also even if you don't give a sheet abt the elderly, do you at least empathize with the plight of healthcare workers and the opportunity cost of treating COVID patients v run of the mill emergencies like heart attacks, strokes, etc?

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RK
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In reply to cone • 8:47p, 3/16/20
AG
cone said:
similar but the mortality rates are lower by close to an order of magnitude


Interesting. The character of the distribution is what I was curious about. I assume a material portion of the magnitude of mortality differential is due to severely limited knowledge of infected numbers.
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Zobel
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In reply to RK • 8:47p, 3/16/20
AG
Got you fam

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IrishTxAggie
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8:47p, 3/16/20
AG
I'm still waiting to see a healthcare system that wasn't already a socialized POS in shambles that has been stretched to the breaking point. Please someone show me the data from one of those countries
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TXTransplant
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 8:51p, 3/16/20
IrishTxAggie said:
I'm still waiting to see a healthcare system that wasn't already a socialized POS in shambles that has been stretched to the breaking point. Please someone show me the data from one of those countries


That would be the US. We are in the middle of collecting that data now.

We don't really know what our healthcare system can handle, but we should have a better idea after this.
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Pahdz
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 8:52p, 3/16/20
Good point, but when my friends who are doctors, hospital administrators, etc have concern about resources being stretched, what's my argument?

When the people who literally save lives and run the facilities said lives are saved aren't acting like "eh business as usual, if it happens it happens," I figure I probably shouldn't either.

You want socialized medicine in the US? Have all the hospitals act like nothing is going to happen. Socialized medicine would never fix it but the negativity from an unprepared healthcare system (one could say we already are) would have many voters thinking something drastic would need to be done.
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Zobel
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9:01p, 3/16/20
AG
Some quick nerd talk. Apologies for those who have seen this already.

R0 is how many people each sick person infects. It directly changes how fast the disease spreads per day as well. Some is based on the disease itself (measles is higher than flu) but you can control it with hygiene and behavior. This disease has a do-nothing R0 of around 2.2, maybe higher.

The amount of people who don't get an illness during an epidemic in a population is straight up related to R0. If R0 doesn't change - if we don't do this social distancing stuff - 85% of a "well mixed" population get a disease with an R0 of 2.2.

Seasonal flu has an R0 of around 1.3. That means around 55% of a "well mixed" population get it. 2009 H1N1 infected around 60,000,000 Americans over a year - 19% - and 12,000 deaths.

That's where the 30-70% of Americans getting COVID19 is coming from, from guys like Dr Fauci. That's where the 480,000 - 2.2 million fatalities is coming from (30% spread and 0.5% fatality low end, 70% spread and 1% fatality high end).

Read page 19 of this, second to last. This isn't going to be a quick fix.
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agdaddy04
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In reply to Zobel • 9:02p, 3/16/20
AG
That's not quite apples to apples but I understand we don't have enough time for it to be comprehensive. But to compare China to US doesn't really tell us much.
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BowSowy
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In reply to combat wombat™ • 9:07p, 3/16/20
AG
combat wombat said:
Pregnant women and recently pregnant wpmen have been added to the higher risk group, at least in UK.
Source?
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P.H. Dexippus
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In reply to combat wombat™ • 9:12p, 3/16/20
AG
combat wombat said:
Pregnant women and recently pregnant wpmen have been added to the higher risk group, at least in UK.

My wife is due 4/8
"[When I was a kid,] I wanted to be a pirate. Thank God no one took me seriously and scheduled me for eye removal and peg leg surgery."- Bill Maher
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cone
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In reply to RK • 9:17p, 3/16/20
AG
South Korea's aggressive testing puts that to bed

you could argue the denominator for Italy certainly but most of that mortality had to be pure triage
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Jack Cheese
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In reply to cone • 9:28p, 3/16/20
AG
cone said:
South Korea's aggressive testing puts that to bed

you could argue the denominator for Italy certainly but most of that mortality had to be pure triage

And age of population. Italy skews significantly older.
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XpressAg09
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 9:32p, 3/16/20
AG
IrishTxAggie said:
It's a shame Houston is a freezing desert.
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jenn96
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In reply to XpressAg09 • 9:33p, 3/16/20
AG
XpressAg09 said:
IrishTxAggie said:
It's a shame Houston is a freezing desert.

No data that comes out of China can be trusted. But I really hope this data is true.
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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9:38p, 3/16/20
AG
Imm helping by getting ducking wasted in the pub
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agz win
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9:42p, 3/16/20
AG
Is this All true? It was posted on another thread. Particularly item 3.


Harris county starting tomorrow at 8am for next 15 days
1. Restaurants only delivery/pickup/drive through
2. bars/clubs closed
3. stay home unless HAVE to go out
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to agz win • 9:43p, 3/16/20
AG
agz win said:
Is this All true? It was posted on another thread. Particularly item 3.


Harris county starting tomorrow at 8am for next 15 days
1. Restaurants only delivery/pickup/drive through
2. bars/clubs closed
3. stay home unless HAVE to go out


Yep
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agz win
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9:45p, 3/16/20
AG
That was from the 5 pm news conference by Turner?

Thanks.
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Matt Hooper
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In reply to Zobel • 9:47p, 3/16/20
AG
Remarkable graph.
If you are over 70 - be very careful.
Over 60 - make good decisions based on your personal health profile.

Crater the economy for 65 and younger. Cost - benefit. WTF?
Hooper Drives the Boat
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Zobel
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In reply to Matt Hooper • 9:49p, 3/16/20
AG
That's what the UK was originally planning on doing. It's a bit like jumping off the roof and then stopping before you hit the ground.

I'm kinda of the opinion that if we could control the spread (enough to prevent the elderly from being exposed), we wouldn't really be in the situation we're in to begin with.

We're about to engage in a massive global experiment. I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions.
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Pahdz
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In reply to Matt Hooper • 9:51p, 3/16/20
It's less about older people dying, and more about them taking up resources in the healthcare system affecting care of the rest of the community of all ages and all other ailments
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