Gunter will be blow up by 2030 as well

Maybe. There's a LOT more development for Gunter to get there. Celina is predicted to be bigger than Frisco when built out… they're 4A with 1 high school.

The report I saw for Celina, was it would approach 300k by 2030 or something stupid like that. Hard to believe that fast but I get the idea

No way. That would be adding 30k plus people per year. It's got a long ways to go. Drive up Preston through Celina to Gunter. Looks like Prosper 20+ years ago.

ChoppinDs40 said:

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People move out here and think these fields will be fields forever. Lol

They seen to ignore the Rex Real Estate sign in every single corner.

I grew up here and remember Frisco before it even had a grocery store and was "Home of the Fightin' Coons"

Everyone that moves out here wants to shut the door behind them on the way in. Unh unh people. Gotta move out to BFE Gunter.

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Last week my SIL told my wife she was dismayed and surprised by the houses that were built literally right behind them and now blocking their view.

When they moved in, their house was listed as being in a phase one development. Right behind them the land was literally already scraped for housing, had development signs everywhere, and dirt movers sitting on it.

And now she is surprised.

ChoppinDs40 said:

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Maybe. There's a LOT more development for Gunter to get there. Celina is predicted to be bigger than Frisco when built out… they're 4A with 1 high school.

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Have you driven up Preston lately. The 2nd HS is basically finished on the other side of Preston from the 1st HS. Caught me off guard a few weeks ago.

duck79 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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Maybe. There's a LOT more development for Gunter to get there. Celina is predicted to be bigger than Frisco when built out… they're 4A with 1 high school.

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Have you driven up Preston lately. The 2nd HS is basically finished on the other side of Preston from the 1st HS. Caught me off guard a few weeks ago.

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I have. Drove up Saturday to go drink some firewater and roll the demon dice in Durant.

It's almost done but there's ALOT of land between celina and Gunter. Distance wise, it's as far from Prosper to Gunter as it is from Prosper to Spring Creek and the tollway…

Not pushing back on you. The farther you go out, the circle of growth increases exponentially. 10 miles of expansion from Frisco north is NOT 10 miles of expansion from Prosper north (using the same center).

Gunter's high school is the same high school that was there 20+ years ago. Same tiny football field. Same "Tiger Mart" on Preston.

Hop on realtor and look around Gunter. Not much development and mostly lots of land for sale.

Oh we have. We've considered selling in this neighborhood and moving out there.

duck79 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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Maybe. There's a LOT more development for Gunter to get there. Celina is predicted to be bigger than Frisco when built out… they're 4A with 1 high school.

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Have you driven up Preston lately. The 2nd HS is basically finished on the other side of Preston from the 1st HS. Caught me off guard a few weeks ago.

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Thats a new middle school. I have a gut feeling Celina will go with the Allen model of one mammoth HS.

duck79 said:

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Oh we have. We've considered selling in this neighborhood and moving out there

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yeah but move where? anything that's "new" and somewhat developed (living on the Bridges course) is going to still run you 800k+

Everything else is either $200k+ for an acre of undeveloped land or some old house on an acre of 2 that needs lots of updating.

I know lots of old school Prosper people that have moved out there and are used to living on a few acres in a smaller house. It's great for them and their kids are out of school.

YMMV but the schools out there aren't good (described to me by people that live that that they "still watch movies in the class room). Not trying to get into this which school is better than others but I think the education your kids would get out there would not prepare them for college or the next phase. Maybe I'm wrong but Gunter is Grayson county couuunnnntry.

they may, probably to put them back into sports relevance.

Celina ISD is HUGE though, that'd be a massive hike for some people (not to say it isn't for kids in Allen).

FTAco07 said:

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Yes I am telling you that. The city of Frisco has absolutely no control of your assessed value, that's done by the county appraisal district. Additionally, school districts make up the vast majority of your tax bill, not cities. Universal is going to generate a bunch of tax revenue for the ISD (that admittedly the state will take away) with no direct addition of students.

I don't know if Universal is getting a TIF or other tax incentive, but upgrading roads isn't that expensive and would be more than paid for by the new taxes generated from Universal.

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Thanks. I'm aware how appraisal values work. And I'm also aware of how Frisco city council has worked in the back room over the past several years, particularly since Cheney got elected.

The only obvious thing is to go with a hotel tax bump of some sort if they aren't going to raise the tax rate for Frisco city. And frisco ISD doesn't exactly have a stellar record in this area. Will probably need to hire 3-4 more assistant superintendents to focus on the entertainment corridor or some BS like that.

Color me skeptical.

Carlo4 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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No way. That would be adding 30k plus people per year. It's got a long ways to go. Drive up Preston through Celina to Gunter. Looks like Prosper 20+ years ago.

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Growth rate is 20% per year like clockwork. Keep that pace, and you get there quicker than you realize.

Source: I'm a traffic engineering consultant and do lots of work with the City of Celina.

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Maybe. Per the most recent article. 34k people 2022. By 2030, that's ~107k people at 20% growth. 4 years to double. No way I see that happening. I could be wrong but Frisco wasn't even growing at that speed. That math says >600k in Celina by 2040

Not as hard to grow 20% when your population is 25k. That being said, seeing the growth in prosper in the last 5 years has been staggering. Celina has a lot more to go.

At what point though, are some of these places too far out? will DFW continue its endless sprawl all the way to the river?

Nothing personal, but LOL at using the same population growth projections that traffic engineers use. Always up and to the right forever. Need more lanes!

I know you've got some inside info on this area. What's the word on that potential Mall site at 380 in between DNT and 423? Indian / Chinese investors I think?

By PGA?

Well, you are right about the FISD admin being a little too heavy. That being said, you are wrong about the FISD tax rate. It has progressively gone down as the values have risen. Yes, your tax bill has gone up as the values have gone up, but they district has responded favorably.

Celina will possibly hold out as long as long as possible with one high school, but with their projected build out, they will need several. Their population is expected to surpass Frisco due to their land size. Frisco isn't full yet and currently has 12 high schools with over 25,000 9-12th grade students. With that enrollment, they could have 4-5 Allen size high schools.

Yes just north. Lasseo is the developer? (Spelling)

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2021/12/02/frisco-mall-site-up-for-grabs-near-new-pga-headquarters/?outputType=amp

cadetjay02 said:

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Well, you are right about the FISD admin being a little too heavy. That being said, you are wrong about the FISD tax rate. It has progressively gone down as the values have risen. Yes, your tax bill has gone up as the values have gone up, but they district has responded favorably.

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Good point. Many people assume Frisco tax rates are high. The rates in Frisco are actually VERY LOW for the area. Tax BILLS are high because of property values, but the rate is one of the really nice things about Frisco.

Is Celina looking like it's going to be planned out well?

This thread reconfirms my choice back in 2002 to move to Arlington (in the Mansfield ISD part). All built out and you know what it is.

I imagine this thing will be sort of like the Gaylord. A large resort for sure but nowhere near a full size Universal Amusement Park.

nai06 said:

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I imagine this thing will be sort of like the Gaylord. A large resort for sure but nowhere near a full size Universal Amusement Park.

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bingo... bigger than the Gaylord but that's the right idea. It's going to have a hotel, restaurants, etc.

Like I said earlier, the entire thing is 97 acres, including parking, hotel and the park.

It makes sense for them to venture out and get people hooked for a far lesser price tag. Family of 5 to Disney/Orlando will run you $10k for a week. This will be much more "doable".

ChoppinDs40 said:

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The entire development is less than 100 acres y'all. This is basically a glorified playground for charge. Nothing to worry about.

For reference, 100 acres is less than a square 1/2 mile. Six Flags over Texas is 212 acres. I assume the 100 acres includes parking due to the size of the plot they bought.

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The actual park excluding parking for six flags is around 26 acres.

Seven Costanza said:

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Is Celina looking like it's going to be planned out well?

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It changes quite a bit but it does seem there is a lot of care given to grow the downtown square area to be like McKinney's with unique shops and restaurants.

One project in the hopper that will be interesting to see if it comes to fruition is a central park and trails type area that incorporates the old football field as part of a new amphitheater.

ChoppinDs40 said:

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Carlo4 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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No way. That would be adding 30k plus people per year. It's got a long ways to go. Drive up Preston through Celina to Gunter. Looks like Prosper 20+ years ago.

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Growth rate is 20% per year like clockwork. Keep that pace, and you get there quicker than you realize.

Source: I'm a traffic engineering consultant and do lots of work with the City of Celina.

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Maybe. Per the most recent article. 34k people 2022. By 2030, that's ~107k people at 20% growth. 4 years to double. No way I see that happening. I could be wrong but Frisco wasn't even growing at that speed. That math says >600k in Celina by 2040

Not as hard to grow 20% when your population is 25k. That being said, seeing the growth in prosper in the last 5 years has been staggering. Celina has a lot more to go.

At what point though, are some of these places too far out? will DFW continue its endless sprawl all the way to the river?

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Hell, I think so. Land is our path of least resistance in this part of the world. These outlying burbs are essentially building their own satellite downtowns and skyscrapers so you are effectively seeing this area become a collection of large cities all interconnected with their own city cores that are traditionally only in large cities.

Frisco/Plano at Legacy is a perfect example of that. That whole area didn't exist back in 2002 because I was driving up the tollway every week and it literally ended at Legacy and was pasture beyond that. Now look at it.

Gigem_94 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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The entire development is less than 100 acres y'all. This is basically a glorified playground for charge. Nothing to worry about.

For reference, 100 acres is less than a square 1/2 mile. Six Flags over Texas is 212 acres. I assume the 100 acres includes parking due to the size of the plot they bought.

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The actual park excluding parking for six flags is around 26 acres.

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Huh? It's been a long time since I've been (and I could be wrong) but I'd bet big money that the park is larger than 26 acres. If it was 26 acres, you'd literally be right next to every ride if you were in the middle of the park, and they'd have no room to fit everything.

Gigem_94 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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The entire development is less than 100 acres y'all. This is basically a glorified playground for charge. Nothing to worry about.

For reference, 100 acres is less than a square 1/2 mile. Six Flags over Texas is 212 acres. I assume the 100 acres includes parking due to the size of the plot they bought.

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The actual park excluding parking for six flags is around 26 acres.

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Not even close to accurate. I just snapped it on Google Earth and Six Flags over Texas is about 80 acres excluding parking and some outlying areas.

cadetjay02 said:

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Celina will possibly hold out as long as long as possible with one high school,

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You're right, but the Good Ol' Boys club that want one high school for football dominance are losing power. Don't remember the bond year, call it 2018, but the plan was to go another decade with one HS. They've purchased sites for at least 2 more, but I'm thinking those were the 3 and 4th schools.

As far as planned well, who knows. The developers get whatever they want and controlled city council but that may be reversing. And the city council has been predatory in forcing annexation the past few years, ignoring state laws that were recently passed. State govt., lobbyists know and are watching when Celina gets more aggressive.

YouBet said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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Carlo4 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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No way. That would be adding 30k plus people per year. It's got a long ways to go. Drive up Preston through Celina to Gunter. Looks like Prosper 20+ years ago.

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Growth rate is 20% per year like clockwork. Keep that pace, and you get there quicker than you realize.

Source: I'm a traffic engineering consultant and do lots of work with the City of Celina.

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Maybe. Per the most recent article. 34k people 2022. By 2030, that's ~107k people at 20% growth. 4 years to double. No way I see that happening. I could be wrong but Frisco wasn't even growing at that speed. That math says >600k in Celina by 2040

Not as hard to grow 20% when your population is 25k. That being said, seeing the growth in prosper in the last 5 years has been staggering. Celina has a lot more to go.

At what point though, are some of these places too far out? will DFW continue its endless sprawl all the way to the river?

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Hell, I think so. Land is our path of least resistance in this part of the world. These outlying burbs are essentially building their own satellite downtowns and skyscrapers so you are effectively seeing this area become a collection of large cities all interconnected with their own city cores that are traditionally only in large cities.

Frisco/Plano at Legacy is a perfect example of that. That whole area didn't exist back in 2002 because I was driving up the tollway every week and it literally ended at Legacy and was pasture beyond that. Now look at it.

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Oh, I know. I remember when Preston/121 was a 4 way stop and 121 to McKinney was basically a no-go but was the road to the ***** houses.

DNT stopped at Beltline.

I guess what I'm trying to say it... while Frisco was mostly undeveloped... the 35 corridor and 75 corridor were still very much developed (McKinney being a "hub" for quite some time).

Frisco/north plano and west McKinney just kinda got filled in with the tollway.

As that all progresses north of 380 the sheer area to cover becomes much larger... basic geometry pie r^2.

We're now talking about an area that's 30 miles wide (McKinney to east Denton - 380 corridor) and a long ways north. Maybe it'll get there but I think it'll be a long... long time. I'm sure the immediate area around the DNT will continue to be a spinal cord for the region but Gunter mostly looks the same today as it did 20 years ago.

And while Celina is growing... it hasn't grown THAT much outside of Carter Ranch and a couple developments right there near the baseball fields and right along Preston (which is really Prosper ISD in some areas, i.e., Light Farms).

We'll see but there's a metric ****ton of land in Celina... Hell, our house in Plano was built in 1975... and there's still development to be had in Plano... that's 50 years ago.... I think it could be another 50 before Celina gets to that level.

Frisco benefited from being capitalism's ***** and said bring it on - massive mall, IKEA, Rough Riders, Stars Hockey team.. Cowboys... we'll take it all and give free taxes. Does everyone else have that same mentality? averages would say no.

From what I was told from developers and some GCs this week, parking lot is not part of that 97 acres. I don't believe it will be a large park, but I don't foresee it being just a 27 acre park. I'd say 40-50 acres will actually be park.