Howdy Dammit said:

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BaytownAg13 said:

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We went under contract for a new build in Liberty Hill in October. Our construction manager informed us that the same house is now selling for 50k more than we paid for it due to inventory shortages and material costs. It's absolutely crazy. We timed things just right.

My wife works for a large homebuilder and they are considering shifting their lot premiums from a fixed price to a bidding model. Multiple other homebuilders have apparently already started this practice.

I have coworkers also looking to buy their first homes and they are all being forced to wait due to out of towners driving prices of resell and new homes through the roof. The problem is that no one knows how long this will last and if prices will come down any time soon.

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Me and my wife are in the same position as your coworkers. Newlyweds and make pretty darn good money, but can't compete with 25 over asking cash offers, and don't want to settle for a crappy house. Don't know how long it will take to normalize, but this just can't continue at this pace.

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Realtors I know are saying it's not changing any time soon. Two houses in my neighborhood just went for 30% above appraisal (neither of them ever hit the market). One of them is the most dated house in the hood and the pool is busted and they agreed to zero upgrades (worth about 500k one year ago and sold this week for $825 to northeast money).

I think it also make me us all realize that making dang good money isn't the same for everyone

As in "I make good money" and can't afford a $1.5M house?

And Another! 38% over asking price. This just really doesn't seem to be healthy, what will we be saying in a couple years? Is this sustainable or will people feel upside down (if they didn't pay cash)?

________________________________________________

Mar 25, 2021
Date
Sold (MLS) (Closed)

ACTRIS #
$791,000
Price
Feb 8, 2021
Date
Contingent (Active Under Contract)

ACTRIS #

Price
Feb 5, 2021
Date
Listed (Active)

ACTRIS #
$575,000
Price

Not really the austin market, but had to go this far out for reasonably priced homes: Trying to buy in New Braunfels. Have lost two houses with a higher offer to Californians paying cash for homes they haven't even walked through.

Complete Idiot said:

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And Another! 38% over asking price. This just really doesn't seem to be healthy, what will we be saying in a couple years? Is this sustainable or will people feel upside down (if they didn't pay cash)?

________________________________________________

Mar 25, 2021
Date
Sold (MLS) (Closed)

ACTRIS #
$791,000
Price
Feb 8, 2021
Date
Contingent (Active Under Contract)

ACTRIS #

Price
Feb 5, 2021
Date
Listed (Active)

ACTRIS #
$575,000
Price

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I just got back the appraisal on the home we bought in March, it already appraised ~4% higher than what my offer was. The homes closing every week is driving up the appraisal steadily.

I have been watching the market because I was nervous about the appraisal. Right now I am still seeing houses listed under ~$200/sqft in good condition.... What I find interesting is realtors are either:
A) Listing homes way under value to drum up attention, knowing the price will go WAY over
or
B) Do not understand the market dynamics

tailgatetimer10 said:

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.... What I find interesting is realtors are either:
A) Listing homes way under value to drum up attention, knowing the price will go WAY over
or
B) Do not understand the market dynamics

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This is what I am curious about. If you know a house will sell for $700k why list it for $600k?

Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:

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Not really the austin market, but had to go this far out for reasonably priced homes: Trying to buy in New Braunfels. Have lost two houses with a higher offer to Californians paying cash for homes they haven't even walked through.

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I don't want any native Texans caught up in this mess, but I hope the majority of those bought sight-unseen homes from CA/NY folks drop below their purchase price in a year or two.

I know that will be bad in general, but still...would make me smirk for just a moment.

Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:

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Not really the austin market, but had to go this far out for reasonably priced homes: Trying to buy in New Braunfels. Have lost two houses with a higher offer to Californians paying cash for homes they haven't even walked through.

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It's really hard to not hate these people.

Fast forward 15-30 years and this board will be full of people happily discussing how they are cashing in their Austin homes and paying cash in some other cheaper area.

Complete Idiot said:

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Fast forward 15-30 years and this board will be full of people happily discussing how they are cashing in their Austin homes and paying cash in some other cheaper area.

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I hope so

Complete Idiot said:

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Fast forward 15-30 years and this board will be full of people happily discussing how they are cashing in their Austin homes and paying cash in some other cheaper area.

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Yeah, that's what I was thinking until I read this today....I was hoping to move further out down the road, become Llano Ag or something. They're snapping it ALL up.


An influx of investors and want-to-be ranchers swooped into rural areas last year to buy land to look at the big Texas sky.
More than half a million acres of rural land traded hands in Texas in 2020, hitting a record $1.69 billion worth of deals, according to data from the Texas A&M University Real Estate Research Center.
Nearly every part of the state saw a spike in deal volume with the number of sales hitting 7,684 deals, a 28% jump from last year.

The data doesn't track the motivation of buyers, but brokers said they are seeing an increase in investors looking for a safe place to park cash during an uncertain year, noted Charles Gilliland, a research economist at Texas A&M University Real Estate Research Center, in an interview.

Brokers also are reporting a stampede of urban dwellers searching for a country getaway, a ranch or recreational hunting lands during the pandemic, Gilliland said.
"I was just talking to a broker last week who said a number of his buyers are asking, 'How long does it take to get to an H-E-B [grocery store] from here?' So they're not [all] the ranch-type buyers that these guys have been dealing with for years, they're different types of folks," Gilliland said.


The Texas Hill Country in Central Texas continues to be one of the more sought-after regions for rural land buyers, both because of its natural beauty and because of its relative proximity to Austin and San Antonio, he said. Even buyers from the Houston and Dallas areas also dip into the Hill Country, which is closer than the other scenic areas of the states, Gilliland noted.

"The Central Texas area in one quarter this past year had more than 1,000 sales. It never has even come close to that in the past," Gilliland said.
Overall in 2020, the Austin-Waco-Hill Country region saw 2,364 deals, a nearly 39% jump from the prior year, the research center data found. There were 113,784 acres sold in the Central Texas region, up about 25%.

Despite the jump in the number of sales in the Austin area, prices barely budged, indicating that buyers were snatching up whatever they could, even lower-quality land that may have had a more difficult time selling in the past, Gilliland noted.

"As this kind of frenzy continues it would not be surprising to see some sizable price increases as well. As a matter of fact, I'm hearing from brokers on some of the smaller acreages that are having bidding wars like single-family homes," he said. The rural land "market right now is on fire, it's kind of like the housing market. The housing market right now is going totally bonkers and the same thing is happening with these land sales."

I genuinely feel bad for young families.

I'm all for the free market, but in this case I'm not sure it's right for a corporation to be winning bids vs people who are looking for their primary residence (*or perhaps only?)

Boy she sure days something that spoke to me.

"You basically have to make an offer that you're embarrassed about"

I commute 45 miles, and live on ten acres in the country in 2000 sq ft renovated house for a fraction of what people are paying to live at half that distance on a fraction of the land. Unless people enjoy being involuntary land speculators, I have no idea why they spend such a huge premium to not drive.

I know time is valuable and school districts....

It is a combination of lack of driving and access to amenities/things you want to do. There is very little outside of hunting and fishing that attracts me to small town life. Also, I can always make more money, I will never be able to make more time.

Its also easy to assign value to your time when you bill by the hour. 2 hours of commuting a day assuming I couldn't take calls or find something to bill for, would cost me close to $1,000 in revenue per day. That makes up the cost difference real quick. Your schools are probably more attractive than mine, although central Austin schools aren't bad they just have a different social agenda than I want me kid exposed to.

Dont known if this angle has been posted:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801

To each his own I suppose. The two hours of driving when I go into the office suck, but I do have actual real darkness at night. I can see tons of stars at night, and it's actually pretty quiet, which are simple luxuries you can't buy with any amount of money in town. I don't have to deal with neighbors as I can barely see any of their houses. It definitely comes at a price in time and more limited job choices but it's all personal preference. I lived in suburbia for 18 years and couldn't wait to escape it.

Just saying, you can get a very nice place at a much lower cost if you are willing to drive in early and start work early when you have to. I figure with work from home getting more effective all the time, this will become more of an option for more people.

I did this when I lived in Cedar Park. And as the years went on (this was 2009) it got worse and worse.

I'd try to go to work at 630 and leave by 4. But sometimes that didn't always work out and I'd find myself leaving at 530 and being stuck for 75 minutes on a bad day. And even at 630 it could take 45 minutes.

Never again. My time is so much more valuable than that bull***** It's funny too: I remember saying the same thing back in 2008: "wow, how could you want to spend $50,000 more on a house to save 10-15 minutes on the road each way"

Yes, to each their own.

evan_aggie said:

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I did this when I lived in Cedar Park. And as the years went on (this was 2009) it got worse and worse.

I'd try to go to work at 630 and leave by 4. But sometimes that didn't always work out and I'd find myself leaving at 530 and being stuck for 75 minutes on a bad day. And even at 630 it could take 45 minutes.

Never again. My time is so much more valuable than that bull***** It's funny too: I remember saying the same thing back in 2008: "wow, how could you want to spend $50,000 more on a house to save 10-15 minutes on the road each way"

Yes, to each their own.

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I know people who did that regularly in Houston and Dallas too. I dont understand it. I know it's pretty much the only option some people have but I cant imagine doing that every day.

If you want to be super depressed, calculate the approximate total time you've spent sitting in traffic to/from work.

With Covid restrictions in Cali easing, we'll see if this is the first sign of easing on our housing supply too.

finally under contract in new braunfels.

Easily the best years of my career have been when my commute was under 10 minutes and our house backed up to the kids school, so I never had to worry about car line / after school schedules other than games.

500,000ags said:

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With Covid restrictions in Cali easing, we'll see if this is the first sign of easing on our housing supply too.

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Sometimes I've peeked at zillow in some CA cities just for funsies to see if prices have eased up due to the insane exodus of people.

Nope, it's just as bad.

larry culpepper said:

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500,000ags said:

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With Covid restrictions in Cali easing, we'll see if this is the first sign of easing on our housing supply too.

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Sometimes I've peeked at zillow in some CA cities just for funsies to see if prices have eased up due to the insane exodus of people.

Nope, it's just as bad.

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I've brought this up a few times when talking when others - isn't it amazing that multiple cities/areas outside of California are seeing a huge value rise which is being blamed, at least in part, on those moving in from Cali yet all those left coasters must be selling their homes for strong prices still, no? Speaks to the incredible demand in California.

BUT, I haven't looked to see what is happening with real estate there. For the area I'm in I've been checking Redfin Sold listings and seeing sold prices ~30% higher than asking, I'll do the same check in some Cali cities.

Real quick check, far from scientific just 5-7 properties in each of San diego, LA, and San Fran:

Selling for 0-10% over list, rather than the +30% I'm seeing around our house, but definitely a different trend as far as how the realtors manage the asking price there if compared to at least my immediate NW Austin hood. Around me, I see houses going 30% over asking price, and that keeps occurring. Someone else asked this on here the other day, why aren't the realtors bumping up the prices to reflect current conditions? We've been in this state for months and still I see very low asking prices relative to sold price. In the California properties I checked, the asking prices are being bumped up prior to sale - I'll see initial asking $600K, then it's bumped to $650K and it sells for $665K (and that's just over a month or two period). So harder to judge if just going by final ask price vs sold price, maybe better to compare sold to INITIAL asking price.

Oh, and one other thing - San Fran Housing prices are insane. One interesting property history (numbers seem extreme but given it's over 45 years it's just 7.5% return per year. Not bad for housing though!):

Apr 6, 2021
Date
Sold (MLS) (Sold)

MLSListings #ML81830914
$2,026,000
Price
Mar 3, 2021
Date
Pending (Pending (Do Not Show))

MLSListings #ML81830914

Price
Feb 22, 2021
Date
Listed (Active)

MLSListings #ML81830914
$1,799,000
Price

Jul 1975, Sold for $75,000
Jul 9, 1975
Date
Sold (Public Records)

Public Records
$75,000
Price

Anyone care to consider a conspiracy theory? The rapidly rising cost of real estate seems to be happening nation wide, and materials are stupid high. Could this be a governments way of driving more people to depend on low income housing and government subsidies? Or maybe something else? I am not saying I believe this just something that popped into my head.