I somehow got a new build for ask price. I close next week. It's <1000 sq ft but IMO fine for a single person or a couple w/o kids

There was only one competing offer, which baffles me. Realtor said just about everything is getting 20+ offers for at least 50k over asking, as discussed in this thread. Makes me a little nervous but it appraised for a couple thousand more than ask. Guess I should take what I have and run.

larry culpepper said:

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I somehow got a new build for ask price. I close next week. It's <1000 sq ft but IMO fine for a single person or a couple w/o kids

There was only one competing offer, which baffles me. Realtor said just about everything is getting 20+ offers for at least 50k over asking, as discussed in this thread. Makes me a little nervous but it appraised for a couple thousand more than ask. Guess I should take what I have and run.

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People coming from NY or CA with money probably aren't looking for 1000 sq ft. Even locals start to thin out with smaller square footage.

Makes sense. Guess that's where I am on the totem pole since I cant compete with 100k over asking and waiving all my contingencies.

So, will the 2021 Snowpocalypse scare people from Cali away? Haha

500,000ags said:

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So, will the 2021 Snowpocalypse scare people from Cali away? Haha

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Nope, but I see more solar and windmills in our future since they worked so well this time.

larry culpepper said:

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Makes sense. Guess that's where I am on the totem pole since I cant compete with 100k over asking and waiving all my contingencies.

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For me, I have too many people and too much crap to buy something 1000 square feet, unless it was a garage maybe. Not digging on you, but multiple kids, dogs, and a wife, mean I need more space. Many people willing to pay that kind of coin are in a similar spot (probably later in life)?

You can get by under 1k square foot as just a couple and maybe a couple plus 1kid.I love a smaller house because I hate clutter and stuff

Hell I lived with my mom and two brother in an 800 square foot apartment for 3 years but that was out of necessity rather than desired location

Mueller 3/2 1792 sqft listed at 775K, under contract for 130K over asking. $479/ sqft. Insanity!

CNBC had an article yesterday that lumber prices have doubled in 3 months up to $1,000 per 1,000 board feet. I think that's a record high.

Did the article say why? Sounds like the lumber companies are just getting while the getting is good. Doubt there was all the sudden a "shortage of lumber".

Aust Ag said:

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Did the article say why? Sounds like the lumber companies are just getting while the getting is good. Doubt there was all the sudden a "shortage of lumber".

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Uh, global pandemic dramatically reduced lumber mill production?

Aust Ag said:

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Did the article say why? Sounds like the lumber companies are just getting while the getting is good. Doubt there was all the sudden a "shortage of lumber".

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I fully believe this. Look at the chart. There is nothing that makes sense there. The price was 50% less in November of last year. The pandemic was already well understood. Even in the summer prior it was low.

lumber

evan_aggie said:

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Aust Ag said:

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Did the article say why? Sounds like the lumber companies are just getting while the getting is good. Doubt there was all the sudden a "shortage of lumber".

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I fully believe this. Look at the chart. There is nothing that makes sense there. The price was 50% less in November of last year. The pandemic was already well understood. Even in the summer prior it was low.

lumber

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Ive got bad news for you. Lumber prices are going to blow your mind over the next quarter.

Not really. Housing demand was mentioned. Frankly, the article was kind of confusing, where some MD commented on reasons why prices should actually be lower. Canadian lumber tariffs declined in December, La Nia causing drier conditions and extra logging capacity, more mills going online...

https://www.kvue.com/mobile/article/money/economy/boomtown-2040/buying-home-austin-texas-for-sale-boomtown-california-new-york-tesla/269-89c5f131-c2da-465f-b65c-c19530d282e7

Agthatbuilds said:

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evan_aggie said:

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Aust Ag said:

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Did the article say why? Sounds like the lumber companies are just getting while the getting is good. Doubt there was all the sudden a "shortage of lumber".

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I fully believe this. Look at the chart. There is nothing that makes sense there. The price was 50% less in November of last year. The pandemic was already well understood. Even in the summer prior it was low.

lumber

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Ive got bad news for you. Lumber prices are going to blow your mind over the next quarter.

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We will start our construction sometime later this summer....if lumber continues to get even worse, are there alternative materials to use for framing? Is steel framing a viable alternative given the trajectory of lumber?

I finally got an offer accepted. Thankfully didn't go that much over at all.

I'll be listing my current place up soon enough

Not really. When plywood cost ~35 a sheet, you're kinda outta luck. Hell, 2x4x8 are like 8.50 per stick. Ask your builder if they get any sort of volume discount or a part of a buyers association that gets better deals.

Most contracts have a clause which allows a builder to ask for more money if prices go up a certain percentage post contract date.

Steel is expensive though the difference no longer is so stark.

Is your builder doing a plywood + building wrap assembly or a zip system? Might save a few bucks doing a traditional build.

Ill warn its not just lumber. Marvin windows went up 8 or so % this month. Nothing is going down.

I dont know what type of house your building(custom vs production) but, if custom, ask your builder who they use to buy things through. I know i pass through any discounts i recieve from my vendors.

If production- skip the "upgardes." Work on those later when prices recede a bit.

Wow. A 2X4 is 8.50?

https://qz.com/1985276/america-is-running-short-of-wood/

Quote:

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so much so that the expense of building the average single-family home has risen by $24,000 since last April to reflect the cost of wood.

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SteveBott said:

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Wow. A 2X4 is 8.50?

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Like I said, I don't really believe any bull**** story or excuse heard. Mills aren't having any issue with Covid at this point or lacking people to help run them. That's the biggest non-answer.

Right now everyone realized they could charge 2x their price and still sell a stick and no one wants to retreat on prices. You could try and argue it is supply and demand but if supply takes a shock and demand is high....no one wants to do the same amount of work or even more work for less money.

Where are 2x4x8's 8.50?

Round rock home depot is 7.85 for 1 2x4x8 spf #2. Add tax and you get to 8.49.

I get them cheaper than that but i havent bought a whole home in a few months.

I agree about the mills. They are playing games.


There is somewhat of a supply issue because of weather and nature. See the article i posted earlier about beetles in Canada.

Mills definitely were shutting down or slowing down production during the pandemic. They were running shifts with only half their workers or otherwise limiting shifts. I dont know if that's changed.

I do know there is little incentive to change right now because the market is still hot even with the increased prices of lumber.

Wow, only 5.87 in Temple

When I built this deck in December my contractor drove to Killeen to get my wood.

Crazy, right?

Redfin threw out some analysis that people moving to Austin have an average budget of ~$850k, which is 30% higher than current Austin residents.

evan_aggie said:

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larry culpepper said:

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I somehow got a new build for ask price. I close next week. It's <1000 sq ft but IMO fine for a single person or a couple w/o kids

There was only one competing offer, which baffles me. Realtor said just about everything is getting 20+ offers for at least 50k over asking, as discussed in this thread. Makes me a little nervous but it appraised for a couple thousand more than ask. Guess I should take what I have and run.

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People coming from NY or CA with money probably aren't looking for 1000 sq ft. Even locals start to thin out with smaller square footage.

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While in the contract period I seriously considered backing out and taking the hit on earnest money, thinking the space was too small.

Now I am so relieved I didnt do that. From what I've read, the market in January/February is fantastic compared to now. I'll take my small house for asking price over frantically searching for something else and competing against 100 other offers from CA/NY transplants with f*** you money.

We went under contract for a new build in Liberty Hill in October. Our construction manager informed us that the same house is now selling for 50k more than we paid for it due to inventory shortages and material costs. It's absolutely crazy. We timed things just right.

My wife works for a large homebuilder and they are considering shifting their lot premiums from a fixed price to a bidding model. Multiple other homebuilders have apparently already started this practice.

I have coworkers also looking to buy their first homes and they are all being forced to wait due to out of towners driving prices of resell and new homes through the roof. The problem is that no one knows how long this will last and if prices will come down any time soon.

I'll be listing my 3bd/2bth+office 2k sqft home in a few weeks if anyone is interested..

What part of town? I'm in the market and it has been tough going for us. I'm interested in any good options at this point.

PM Sent

BaytownAg13 said:

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We went under contract for a new build in Liberty Hill in October. Our construction manager informed us that the same house is now selling for 50k more than we paid for it due to inventory shortages and material costs. It's absolutely crazy. We timed things just right.

My wife works for a large homebuilder and they are considering shifting their lot premiums from a fixed price to a bidding model. Multiple other homebuilders have apparently already started this practice.

I have coworkers also looking to buy their first homes and they are all being forced to wait due to out of towners driving prices of resell and new homes through the roof. The problem is that no one knows how long this will last and if prices will come down any time soon.

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Me and my wife are in the same position as your coworkers. Newlyweds and make pretty darn good money, but can't compete with 25 over asking cash offers, and don't want to settle for a crappy house. Don't know how long it will take to normalize, but this just can't continue at this pace.

Neighborhood sampling:


_________________________________
Today
Mar 25, 2021
Date
Sold (MLS) (Closed)

ACTRIS #
$791,000
Price
Feb 8, 2021
Date
Contingent (Active Under Contract)

ACTRIS #

Price
Feb 5, 2021
Date
Listed (Active)

ACTRIS #
$575,000
Price

_________________________________



Today
Mar 23, 2021
Date
Sold (MLS) (Closed)

ACTRIS #
$668,000
Price
Mar 7, 2021
Date
Contingent (Active Under Contract)

ACTRIS #

Price
Mar 4, 2021
Date
Listed (Active)

ACTRIS #
$499,000
Price

______________________________________


Mar 11, 2021
Date
Sold (MLS) (Closed)

ACTRIS #
$750,000
Price
Feb 1, 2021
Date
Pending

ACTRIS #

Price
Jan 31, 2021
Date
Contingent (Active Under Contract)

ACTRIS #

Price
Jan 28, 2021
Date
Listed (Active)

ACTRIS #
$600,000
Price