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Drivers of Austin housing inventory?

31,149 Views | 268 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by WestTexasAg
The Silverback
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AG
Complete Idiot said:

Nearly every new large mixed use development in the metro area is referred to as "Domain-like". For marketing.

There is one on 1431/Sam Bass, one at 45/Greenlawn, one in Pflugerville, one in HUtto. "The next domain!"
Supposed to be same thing off E. Riverside as well
evan_aggie
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Not to poo-poo alternate mixed devs, but few will be anything like the domain. You aren't going to see Louis Vuitton or Nordstroms or multiple giant 20-30 story offices in Hutto or off 1431.

I suppose if the qualification is: outdoor, shops on bottom, apartment/condos on top, and some retail thrown in, then sure... I guess there are 30 domain-like things being built.

The only ones that are very sizable I've heard about are off Riverside and Pleasant Valley. Not even the 290/Lamar Brodie Oaks project would compare to the Domain. Maybe a little larger than The Triangle.
BeowulfShaeffer
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I liked the Domain a whole lot better when it was Century Oaks park as part of the IBM site--2 softball fields, a soccer field, walking paths, and decent greenspace for the employees. I always enjoyed playing softball out there, even against the assembly line workers sandbagging in "lower" classed leagues intended to be populated by us software developers.

However, as IBM kept up its long decline, this result was inevitable.
expresswrittenconsent
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If there's not a white trash indoor water park, deal me out.
neutics
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expresswrittenconsent said:

If there's not a white trash indoor water park, deal me out.
that's called Kalahari...check it out and you'll be surprised what white trash can afford for a vacation there.
Furlock Bones
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We went house searching for a place with a couple of acres and not in a typical neighborhood. Found it in Jonestown. Caveat is sellers needed to leaseback.

My wife owns a home in Houston with her family that she bought before we were married. Her younger sister had just moved in with her fianc, and it was sitting unused but furnished.

Fortunately I was able to qualify for 2 mortgages, so we did not have to put in a contingency.

Decided to sell our home in Greyrock in September amd move to Houston temporarily thinking this covid buying spree could not possibly last. We put our house up for $575K which was 72K more than we paid for it. In 2 days, we had 25 showings and 10 written offers. Closed at $625K.

If we had stayed and sold now, we would be getting well over $700k. We just didn't think there was anyway this could keep running so hard.

Spurswin5
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Makes me wonder how the exburbs are doing.

West of Liberty Hill is Bertram and they have acreage lots. The downside is Burnet Schools

But dinks and retirees might like it

I have 40 acres with views in Oatmeal near Bertram with creek features (mostly dry) and lined with Red Oaks. Raw land with a barn. Can make it to downtown Austin-the River at 10 am on a weekday in 55 minutes. I cleared some high areas to build since I just retired, but these costs are insane that I am hearing.

It seems if people can work from home or, after the pandemic, control their hours of commute more, additional people might want to inch there way just past the hottest outer suburb like Liberty Hill.

Just curious, because I saw a small development being built almost in the city of Bertram, which surprised me.

Maybe it's happening already.
SteveBott
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I'd be interested in buying 20 acres from you right now. Does that answer your question?
oldarmy76
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Horton is selling those homes in Bertram like crazy.
Spurswin5
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SteveBott said:

I'd be interested in buying 20 acres from you right now. Does that answer your question?


If I had a hundred I would sell you twenty if you agreed to build a community barndominium with a huge bar, give me life-time drinking privileges for free, host Aggie sports viewing parties and the occasional Kevin Fowler/REK/Etc concerts (feel free to charge admission).

You can host a big party on 20 Acres.
SteveBott
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After I get my shots? Sure no problem.
Spurswin5
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oldarmy76 said:

Horton is selling those homes in Bertram like crazy.


I drove by there the other day and quickly glanced at a sign. I think is said "starting in the $250s" or maybe "high 200s". I can't remember.

So it has started. Wow!

The radius of acceptable Austin commutes has moved to Bertram.

A buddy reminded me that Burnet County has a private religious school so maybe there is a K-12 option.

Not to disparage the Burnet School District too much as they did give us Stephen McGee.
evan_aggie
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I don't think Austin is in a bubble of the sorts that we'll see a big decline, but I absolutely think there are pockets that don't make any sense.

There are new homes being built between 1826 and 290 out at Dripping springs that builders are asking $800+ for that were $500k 12 months ago. I think those sorts of prices will not hold up. There is too much available land.
Hudson2508
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The problem with this logic is it takes an unfathomable amount of time to design and permit finished lots for home builders. I work for a lot of the builders and the cost of land layered on top of the time to to permit finished lots is driving the costs up and those variables are getting worse by the day. The builders are falling farther and farther behind the amount of people moving here. Will it correct in a big way at some point, I'm sure it will, but I don't think we are close yet.
Aust Ag
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I wonder how long until the city starts to "bend" a little on the protected areas of the "salamander" or whatever? Where those areas' land just becomes too damn valuable and they open up some areas around Barton Creek?
500,000ags
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I noticed a renovated 440 sq ft house on the east side today for $450k. Haha, wth...
Ragnar Danneskjoldd
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500,000ags said:

I noticed a renovated 440 sq ft house on the east side today for $450k. Haha, wth...
Is this a typo. This would be a small room.
500,000ags
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Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:

500,000ags said:

I noticed a renovated 440 sq ft house on the east side today for $450k. Haha, wth...
Is this a typo. This would be a small room.
Realtor.com listing

Nope, not a typo.
JT88
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Neighbors in Westlake bought for 1.7 in July, sold for 2.3 last month.
evan_aggie
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Wife and I were home searching; we aren't in a rush. I have endless thoughts about whether this is a soon to burst bubble in 2-3 years. Does it not burst but just slowly let some air out and stagnate? Will the summer listing cycle, when families typically move, cause the inventory to increase to a point where 100% offers are normal and not +10-15% offers are the norm? You have 10x inventory but 10x shopping.

1015% continued yearly appreciation isn't sustainable at these prices. Wages aren't increasing this fast, but "money is cheap" right now bc a 2.5 or 2.8% rate translates to affordable payments.

The only thing i see putting a damper on pricing is interest rate hikes and the Fed has already said unlikely through 2023.
Complete Idiot
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JT88 said:

Neighbors in Westlake bought for 1.7 in July, sold for 2.3 last month.
Great profit - but now moving where?
Complete Idiot
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500,000ags said:

Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:

500,000ags said:

I noticed a renovated 440 sq ft house on the east side today for $450k. Haha, wth...
Is this a typo. This would be a small room.
Realtor.com listing

Nope, not a typo.
That's wild - a studio house.
Ragnar Danneskjoldd
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500,000ags said:

Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:

500,000ags said:

I noticed a renovated 440 sq ft house on the east side today for $450k. Haha, wth...
Is this a typo. This would be a small room.
Realtor.com listing

Nope, not a typo.
I was telling my fiance about your post and as I said it I said, "no, that cant be right", but here we are.
expresswrittenconsent
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I hadn't seen that one.
There's 2 or 3 more pretty similar ones nearby.
~4600 Gonzales has 2 tiny units on a lot that has a creek bed cutting it diagonally.
1007 Gullett
Aston 91
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And for over $1k/square foot you get to live directly across from railroad tracks and next to this. I'm sure the area will improve over time, but how long will it take?

Ragnar Danneskjoldd
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this place is going to be San Francisco within a decade
evan_aggie
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It has nothing to do with the per foot valuation in this example. You could put a 50 square ft shack on 10,000 ft of prime real estate and it would be $10,000 per ft valuation. It doesn't even matter.

It's the price of land and what can be done.
The Silverback
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evan_aggie said:

It has nothing to do with the per foot valuation in this example. You could put a 50 square ft shack on 10,000 ft of prime real estate and it would be $10,000 per ft valuation. It doesn't even matter.

It's the price of land and what can be done.
This.

A tear down in Rollingwood is about $900-1.5M for a somewhat small lot.
Aston 91
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I agree that the lot has a lot (no pun intended) to do with the value, but I don't think they're trying to sell this as a teardown. Based on the inside pics it looks more like a flip to me. And the lot is only 2657 sq. ft., so you're limited in what can be built on it anyway.

evan_aggie
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My fault. I didn't actually click and see the inside pics. At least it looks slick.
500,000ags
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I might just go with a condo at this point. Doesn't seem like people from Cali are moving here with an eye on condos. They want land and single-family homes, no matter the size.
JT88
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Complete Idiot said:

JT88 said:

Neighbors in Westlake bought for 1.7 in July, sold for 2.3 last month.
Great profit - but now moving where?
They bought down the street closer to Davenport. From the start, they were looking for something bigger but wanted to be in the house for School starting so were limited (moving from out of town).
StaffingMgr
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Wife and I made decision to start looking after getting married early September. Were living in 850 sq ft new build off Cesar Chavez and Robert Martinez, 1 mile from DT. Great location if you prefer city vibe. Bought when we were living apart but now needed/wanted more space. Bought for 408k late 2018 and sold for $511 in December. Got 4 offers within 5 days.

Found new build on East side near Tillery & Lyons (very close to that studio w/ pics above), saw it 1st day active and under contract next day for $750. Would go for $850+ now just 4 months later. We were extremely extremely fortunate on the timing. New build across street from us is 200 more sq ft and was listed at $985, sold on Day 1. This is approx 2200 sq ft.

A couple we know have been offering $100k over asking on multiple homes on East side and are getting beat out. Absolutely insane.
expresswrittenconsent
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Aston 91 said:

And for over $1k/square foot you get to live directly across from railroad tracks and next to this. I'm sure the area will improve over time, but how long will it take?



That lot will be flipped into 2x 750k nice homes in 18 months. Then your place across the street is worth 100k more than it was.
500,000ags
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That 440 sq ft house went pending today.
 
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