BuddysBud said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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BuddysBud said:

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A total of $700M over 35 years is a big influx in a rural county with fewer residents than the city of Bryan, but it is very little when considering the future rapid changes that will be occurring.

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As the county grows and demand for infrastructure also grows, there will be many other sources of tax revenue. SpaceX/Terafab doesn't have to carry the burden. Some of those investments will be paid from state sources of revenue. This investment is like attracting the "anchor store" in a shopping center. You gotta start somewhere, but it won't be the only show in town from a tax revenue standpoint.

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I agree that SpaceX shouldn't carry the entire burden of county taxes. However, I was pointing out that $700M over 35 years is not the huge influx of funds if you consider the upcoming growth and need for additional funding. Also, since the agreement doesn't account for inflation, the value of the fixed $20M per year decreases each year. I hope that the county commissioners have better financial advisors for their personal retirement funds. Taking inflation into account is a huge consideration for any long term investment.

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We just see this very differently. $700mm is a huge bucket of money that can produce tremendous benefits for the county if managed wisely. I'm not ready to diminish it today as woefully inadequate. It's a big step forward.

Red Pear Luke said:

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I'd actually take a different approach with respect to the potential for economic development and growth.

Let's look at two scenarios: 1st is with SpaceX and Terafab and following growth, 2nd is status quo continuing as usual

1st Scenario:
SpaceX coming makes the area sticky from a regional perspective. Terafab and chip production is not an easy set up and creates quite literally a moat. Just look at TSMC (Taiwan SemiConducting Manufacturing Company). That is where 90%+ of the worlds chip supply comes out of. Took them years to build and get here. Not to mention Taiwan is 100 miles away from a Mainland China who wants to reassume control of the Island.

SpaceX coming here and establishing shop would literally be putting College Station on a map as a center of critical importance. The Brazos Valley will lose some of it's country feel but the population as a whole gains more. Gains more influence, expertise, wealth, knowledge and resources. The offset is land costs more, growing pains happen and you get a boatload of new neighbors.

You also get the "Shiny New Object" factor which helps assuage a lot of concerns. Will the kids be mad when they sell Grandpa's ranch? Probably - but they will probably get a nice big check. Will you avoid the unnecessary squabbling over Bond offerings to find CSISD's Athletic Facilities because there is actual money in the budget from the new tax base growth? Will you be able to find a reasonably paying job in a critical technology sector? Absolutely.

I have a buddy who lives in Calvert on 20 acres and drives to the Gigafactory in Texas 3-4 days a week to work as a maintenance tech. This allows his wife to stay home with the kids, home school them and afford them a chance to own their piece of the American dream. Before that he was working a TEEX for $22/hour and struggling.

2nd Scenario:
Status Quo stays the same. College Station continues to expand along HWY 6. It's just a steady growth. But look what's happened to Katy? What's happening to Waller? What's happening to Conroe? They are increasingly finding themselves on the footsteps of the Houston MSA's growing footprint. That is by all means not a bad thing and most of those cities could have seen it coming over 30 years.

Eventually College Station and the Brazos Valley will find themselves as one of those cities. The BV will become an Exurb and filled with ancillary growth from that metro's pull and increasingly dictated by the macro of that economy.


Final Thoughts:
I would rather see the Brazos Valley continue to grow and develop into it's own fiefdom. And one that is calling its own shots instead of being dictated by the growth surrounding it. There will be growing pains, but the BV still has a chance to influence its own growth. Would you rather have a half-assed data-center or one of the World's Cutting edge semi manufacturing facilities partnered with the former American giant Intel who led the original semi-conductor movement? What would you rather have the BCS economy built upon? The re-industrialization of America is upon us and the unfortunate reality is you either play the game or the game will play you. But I see this as a chance for "little brother" to flex his muscles and plant his own flag.

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Well said. I hope our community can embrace this and see what's to come. What a lot of people are not realizing, is that the Gibbons Creek Plant is an extremely PRIME piece of property to other companies that'd like to just throw another random data center in there. That would give an extremely small benefit to Grimes County and the neighbors around GC would hate it just as much if not more.

Elon is going to completely revitalize and change the B/CS & Grimes County community and I for one am pretty thrilled that the richest man in the world who is undeniably successful in the tech and AI space is the one doing it. He built an entire town to help with employment and employees spouses/families. Look up his comments on "the significant other problem."

He understands that if he wants to be successful, those around him need to be as well and that includes what they all go home to.

The Grimes county concerned citizens Facebook is still melting down over the deal. It is rife with threats of recalls, boycotts of local businesses that have supported it, accusations of bribes, etc.
I just hope there are some enterprising souls who live there that will look at this as an opportunity, not only for themselves but their kids. Brainstorm with them about what those workers will need for the next several years.

Shuttle services from housing developments to work and back to save gas.

24 hour diners. Those shifts will be around the clock and people eat.

Set up an acre close by for food trucks to park.

RV parks.

Auto and heavy equipment repair.

The list is endless.

I would be curious if SpaceX, Tesla, Boring etc don't pitch in on infrastructure improvements somewhat voluntarily as time goes on? They will need infrastructure improvements along with everyone else. If the county can't afford it and SpaceX needs it, will SpaceX step up with more funds to help facilitate it?

I was watching a video on the deluge system for the BocaChica facility earlier. They are continually improving that site including utilities. they mentioned a new water line being constructed from Brownsville to BocaChica. I wonder if the county or water company paid for that out of their own funds or did SpaceX step up and say, we need it and will help pay for it. Everyone else along that water line will also benefit from it. Same thing for roads, sewage, electric and a host of other needs?

When infrastructure is needed to support the facility, what stops the county from saying, we don't have the funds to do it right now so you'll have to wait till they are available. The cost is $X million dollars and if you want it sooner we'll just need you to provide the capital to make it happen. Normal budget is spent on non SpaceX infrastructure and if they need things, well..........the county may just need some extra funds to make it happen.

BuddysBud said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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BuddysBud said:

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A total of $700M over 35 years is a big influx in a rural county with fewer residents than the city of Bryan, but it is very little when considering the future rapid changes that will be occurring.

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As the county grows and demand for infrastructure also grows, there will be many other sources of tax revenue. SpaceX/Terafab doesn't have to carry the burden. Some of those investments will be paid from state sources of revenue. This investment is like attracting the "anchor store" in a shopping center. You gotta start somewhere, but it won't be the only show in town from a tax revenue standpoint.

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I agree that SpaceX shouldn't carry the entire burden of county taxes. However, I was pointing out that $700M over 35 years is not the huge influx of funds if you consider the upcoming growth and need for additional funding. Also, since the agreement doesn't account for inflation, the value of the fixed $20M per year decreases each year. I hope that the county commissioners have better financial advisors for their personal retirement funds. Taking inflation into account is a huge consideration for any long term investment.

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$700 million is a very big deal and it's astonishing someone would downplay it. Let me confidently assert GrimesCo is not going to get another offer comparable to that from anybody else on the planet for Gibbons Creek.

And paying it out over time is actually better in the long run. Just as it benefits a lottery winner to take payments instead of a lump sum, this will provide an allowance that can be budgeted for. GrimesCo officials maybe would have squandered a lump sum payment.

If this comes to pass I think most of the growth will be south and east of Gibbons. Yes, some will be in CS, but, to be frank, the taxes (tax rate) in CS are already high ( not including the utility games). As others have mentioned, 30 from Carlos to CS is undersized with a terrible bridge over Navasota River that needs to be replaced. So while that is being replaced, commutes in that direction will be a joy for a few years. Also east and south gives you better access to an airport with more than a few commercial flights per day.

SpaceX isn't looking at the Gibbons location because of College Station, it is looking there because of existing infrastructure and infrastructure is better away from CS.

GasAg90 said:

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If this comes to pass I think most of the growth will be south and east of Gibbons. Yes, some will be in CS, but, to be frank, the taxes (tax rate) in CS are already high ( not including the utility games). As others have mentioned, 30 from Carlos to CS is undersized with a terrible bridge over Navasota River that needs to be replaced. So while that is being replaced, commutes in that direction will be a joy for a few years. Also east and south gives you better access to an airport with more than a few commercial flights per day.

SpaceX isn't looking at the Gibbons location because of College Station, it is looking there because of existing infrastructure and infrastructure is better away from CS.

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Samsung wasn't looking for Hutto either. But when the employees of Samsung and owners and employees of inbound related suppliers started looking for homes, restaurants, hotels, and school districts for their kids, they chose the closest metropolitan area to locate to in most cases. That was Hutto.

Hutto's total taxable property value went from about $2.82 billion in 2021 to $5.52 billion in 2025 a 95.5% increase, nearly doubling in four years. The Samsung plant was announced in 2021, and was 14 miles outside their city limits.

The City of College Station compared: from FY21 to FY25, the city's taxable market value grew by $5.07 billion a 50.3% increase in four years. Gibbons is 17 miles from CS.

What I cannot account for and differentiate is: how much of that growth was already happening in Hutto for other reasons? Probably a lot.

But Hutto grew over 30% faster than Williamson County itself over that period, so Samsung definitely gave that city a sharp jolt.

Because of soaring valuations, Hutto's tax rate has been adjusted downward repeatedly over that time frame. It fell from $0.5999 (FY2021) to $0.3996 (FY2025) even as the dollar value of the average tax bill kept climbing because of sky high valuations… basically rates dropped a third while values nearly doubled.

At the end of the day, it's the size of this plant that compels me to call attention to it as one elected official. It'd be one thing if it were a "normal" sized chip fab like Samsung, but it's reportedly twice the size.

Will it still happen if the IPO next week crashes and burns? We shall see. I'll be watching that closely.

Respectfully

Yancy '95

GasAg90 said:

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If this comes to pass I think most of the growth will be south and east of Gibbons. Yes, some will be in CS, but, to be frank, the taxes (tax rate) in CS are already high ( not including the utility games). As others have mentioned, 30 from Carlos to CS is undersized with a terrible bridge over Navasota River that needs to be replaced. So while that is being replaced, commutes in that direction will be a joy for a few years. Also east and south gives you better access to an airport with more than a few commercial flights per day.

SpaceX isn't looking at the Gibbons location because of College Station, it is looking there because of existing infrastructure and infrastructure is better away from CS.

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While I agree with your first paragraph, I'm not sure I totally agree on your second.

Although there's a chance that CS had zero impact on the site selection, I would find it highly unlikely that Texas A&M was looked at as a potential partner in this project once it's completed. For example, Texas A&M Rellis is currently building a $225 million semiconductor institute that was designed to help with domestic chip production. That very thing is what will be built at Terafab.

Terafab will have a direct pipeline 20 miles away for a multitude of resources that will greatly benefit the residents of the Brazos Valley. One less thing for Elon to worry about and I'm sure it made the site that much more appealing.

And sometimes I have to remind myself that Elon is way more forward thinking than I could ever imagine. He's building this because he can't wait on chips to be built overseas and is just going to get it done himself. If roads become a problem between Terafab and to and from TAMU, Houston, Austin, Bastrop, etc. who's to say he wouldn't allow another small company he owns to work on that issue? The Boring Company is designed to fix those problems and will benefit his other business ventures. He's got a lot of modern solutions to a lot of the traditional problems, but we have to stop thinking in traditional solutions.

The one thing that worries me the most about this is Elon Musk himself. His entire operation/empire has done what it has done because of his vision and drive. If something were to happen to him and he is no longer there to guide and push this thing, most of it probably falls apart and stagnates. I hope he lives a long time.

We need Trev Alberts to be at these meetings to discuss future NIL contributions. @Mr Yancy, can you make it happen?

jac4 said:

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We need Trev Alberts to be at these meetings to discuss future NIL contributions. @Mr Yancy, can you make it happen?

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I guarantee you Trev is already way ahead of you on that. Thankfully Trev also seems to be pretty forward thinking. Could be quite the combo! Optimus robots working concessions, Boring tunnels to relieve game day traffic…who knows!

https://www.kbtx.com/2026/06/06/grimes-county-officially-releases-spacex-terafab-agreement-documents/

Quote:

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One of the clauses buried in the tax abatement agreement is Section 2.18 of the tax abatement agreement states SpaceX does not intend to support or participate in the proposed Texas High Speed Rail, which would have stopped very close to the Gibbons Creek site. It's unclear who requested the clause be included or why opposition to a separate infrastructure project ended up in a semiconductor manufacturing deal.

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Smart.

Elon is smart enough to know the bullet train isn't happening and it's not worth getting involved with it.

TXAG 05 said:

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Elon is smart enough to know the bullet train isn't happening and it's not worth getting involved with it.

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He lived long enough in California to get first hand knowledge of boondoggles...

oklaunion said:

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A lot of the road infrastructure is state highway, not county. The state will need to step up. Good news is the new bridge over Gibbons on 30 is set to open next week.

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And how many years did it take to get to this point?
Elon with be launching from the moon before the Hwy30 bridge over the river is 4 lanes.

1. almost 2 years
2. not if he builds it.

hopeandrealchange said:

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oklaunion said:

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A lot of the road infrastructure is state highway, not county. The state will need to step up. Good news is the new bridge over Gibbons on 30 is set to open next week.

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And how many years did it take to get to this point?
Elon with be launching from the moon before the Hwy30 bridge over the river is 4 lanes.

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Elon could bore under the Navasota river faster than TxDOT could get a bridge built.

Treasure trove of data in that find, RocketScience!

The entity is called TERAFAB AI, LLC. That's interesting.
The docs describe the largest single industrial project in U.S. history, basically, delivered in phases.

The first phase is $10.37 billion and $23.84 billion in Phase 2.

You have to tease out the jobs data, which is categorized by phase, and direct vs construction related.

It adds up to roughly 19,000 total jobs.

Average starting wage for direct, non-construction related jobs is cited as $159,181 per year, growing 2% annually.

The applications have an independent economic analysis included that tells the most important story.

Each phase will support 2,185 direct non-construction jobs but only 902 inside the host county. That means roughly 60% of total project employment 1,283 jobs per phase will be supported in surrounding counties. Combined Phases 1 and 2 will generate approximately 2,566 ongoing spillover jobs and $6.5 billion in spillover payroll over the life of the project. The analysis assumes 10% of worker spending occurs locally. The other 90% flows to surrounding counties.

Construction is a continuous six-year surge from 2026 through 2031, peaking at roughly 16,000 active project workers across the combined first two phases. Phases 3 and 4 will extend that further.

What is NOT in the analysis is the supplier wave. Standard economic multipliers capture existing supply chain spending, not new physical facility relocations by related supplier companies. The comparable Samsung Taylor build at $44 billion, announced 2021, is less technologically leading-edge than TERAFAB but still drew dozens of large supplier companies into the region. None of those appeared in Samsung's original economic impact filings. But they nonetheless followed the anchor independently to be nearby and had a massive impact on those communities.

Basically the economic statement in these applications represents a floor. The actual regional impact, including a supplier wave, will be substantially larger and a significant majority of it will land outside the host district's boundaries. That means Navasota, Bryan and College Station. There will be dozens more Chapter 380 economic development asks from these related, but different, companies.

The Comptroller has up to 60 days from May 23, 2026 to recommend approval or not, and the governor has up to 30 days thereafter to execute the JETI agreement.

And of course, Anderson Shiro CISD has a MASSIVE decision to make. I wish them the best in their deliberations.

Respectfully

Yancy '95

This is truly a mind blowing project! Just when I start thinking I may have a grasp at the scale of it, more information comes out and blows away my previous thoughts.

TLRS said:

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This is truly a mind blowing project! Just when I start thinking I may have a grasp at the scale of it, more information comes out and blows away my previous thoughts.

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From the application:

"The Project is expected to generate substantial economic benefits for the State of Texas, including the creation of
high-skilled jobs, significant ad valorem tax base expansion, and ***the development of a regional ecosystem supporting advanced manufacturing, engineering, and research activities.***

Respectfully

Yancy '95

jbeaman88 said:

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So, is Terafab to Gibbons Creek a done deal yet? If not, what % chance would you say it is that it will happen there?

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I'm going to be watching the IPO on Friday. If it's a success, I think it will happen. If it flops, maybe not. It'll happen this Friday. It'll trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

There's too much momentum behind the proposal for it not to advance if that IPO succeeds. That's where the funding will come from.

Respectfully

Yancy '95

techno-ag said:

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Bob Yancy said:

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jbeaman88 said:

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So, is Terafab to Gibbons Creek a done deal yet? If not, what % chance would you say it is that it will happen there?

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I'm going to be watching the IPO on Friday. If it's a success, I think it will happen. If it flops, maybe not. It'll happen this Friday. It'll trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

There's too much momentum behind the proposal for it not to advance if that IPO succeeds. That's where the funding will come from.

Respectfully

Yancy '95

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The IPO is sucking money away from other investments in preparation to buy in, according to the Business Board. I think it's going to do fine.

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I've heard the same. If it closes over $200/share it'll be nothing less than extraordinary.

Either way it's deeply consequential to the funding of the Grimes project.

Respectfully

Yancy '95

Elon said today they are estimating 100 million square feet. Woah.

This gives you a sense of just how massive Terafab is going to be compared to Tesla Gigafactory Texas.

It will be 10x the size (100 million sq ft) and output 1 TW per year. Insane scale. https://t.co/bAQhrM9Qb3 pic.twitter.com/slLt7mVs0P

— Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane) June 8, 2026

A 100 million sq ft building would be the largest in the world!