Elephant in the room

15,310 Views | 115 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by medic1969p
91_Aggie
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trouble said:

91_Aggie said:

trouble said:

They are not. Sullivan claims it violates HIPAA.

We get age ranges for those who test positive and then for deaths.
ugh, if not being able to release a stat of:
"79% of those hospitalized are 60 years and older" due to HIPAA, then that law is just silly.

There's no privacy concerns with data that generalized.


I didn't say it violates HIPAA. Sullivan did.

There's no reason to not have the hospitalizations broken down into age ranges exactly like the positive results. We don't need to know "there's a 63 year old Hispanic woman in ICU" but "there are 3 patients in the 90s, 4 in their 70s, etc" would be useful information.
Wish our local media would ask questions like this to them.
One of several things have to be in play not to:
1. Our reporters are really bad at statistics and just think what they give is good.
2. Our reporters are afraid of asking hard questions like this for fear of losing future access.
3. Our reporters are happy to go along with the narrative the county wants to spoon feed us.

trouble
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You know I'm cynical as hell so #3 is my guess
Rapier108
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I prefer all of the above.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
tb9665
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If we had reporters like 13 news from Houston maybe we would know .
Sleepnumber
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[We are going to keep insulting posts off of this particular forum. -Staff]
etj77845
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Hard to verify numbers outside the Texas COVID Dashboard. These are the 'reported' numbers as of 1505 on 6.21.for Trauma Service Area 'N'. The TSA includes Brazos and surrounding counties.

Staffed Hospital Beds- 502
Beds Free- 183
ICU Beds Free- 17
Vents Free 50
Confirmed COVID in Hosp.-44

On 5.23 old notes say.
ICU free 26
Vents free 57

So I would say for an area with a population of +360K the number of beds free might be of concern. The 183 beds will have to be used for any illness/trauma.


txgardengirl
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I think a lot of people assume the students aren't here - quite a few are. Who do you think is waiting tables at the restaurants? Leases are year round - they're paying rent and many of them are here. Is it a football weekend crowd? No, but mom and dad have decided in many cases to send them back since they're paying for them to be here anyway.

The apartment and townhome pools and the Cove are busy - they're invincible - but in all honesty, they are not the most likely to be hospitalized but they are the most likely to help increase immunity numbers.
doubledog
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trouble said:

You know I'm cynical as hell so #3 is my guess
Quote:

Wish our local media would ask questions like this to them.
One of several things have to be in play not to:
1. Our reporters are really bad at statistics and just think what they give is good.
2. Our reporters are afraid of asking hard questions like this for fear of losing future access.
3. Our reporters are happy to go along with the narrative the county wants to spoon feed us.

I will go with number 1. The journalist students are not taught rigorous mathematics and statistics.

Now if it is sports reporters, I would go with #2.

#3 is just lazy reporting, I do not think that is the case.




nought
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etj77845 said:

Hard to verify numbers outside the Texas COVID Dashboard. These are the 'reported' numbers as of 1505 on 6.21.for Trauma Service Area 'N'. The TSA includes Brazos and surrounding counties.

Staffed Hospital Beds- 502
Beds Free- 183
ICU Beds Free- 17
Vents Free 50
Confirmed COVID in Hosp.-44

On 5.23 old notes say.
ICU free 26
Vents free 57

So I would say for an area with a population of +360K the number of beds free might be of concern. The 183 beds will have to be used for any illness/trauma.



The beds in use are already primarily being used for other illnesses and trauma, not COVID-19.

Average hospital capacity is 70% regular bed usage, 80% ICU. Hospitals aren't built to be empty -- they would go broke.

Your numbers sound like we are at, or maybe even just under average/optimal usage, despite the media hysterics about COVID-19.
FlyRod
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Quote:

The apartment and townhome pools and the Cove are busy - they're invincible - but in all honesty, they are not the most likely to be hospitalized but they are the most likely to help increase immunity numbers.

I hope they don't come into contact with and infect those older then 50, who are likely to get sicker, end up hospitalized, and have worse outcomes.
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

Quote:

The apartment and townhome pools and the Cove are busy - they're invincible - but in all honesty, they are not the most likely to be hospitalized but they are the most likely to help increase immunity numbers.

I hope they don't come into contact with and infect those older then 50, who are likely to get sicker, end up hospitalized, and have worse outcomes.
how may 20 y/o's are hanging out with the over 50 crowd?
isitjustme
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cavscout96 said:

FlyRod said:

Quote:

The apartment and townhome pools and the Cove are busy - they're invincible - but in all honesty, they are not the most likely to be hospitalized but they are the most likely to help increase immunity numbers.

I hope they don't come into contact with and infect those older then 50, who are likely to get sicker, end up hospitalized, and have worse outcomes.
how may 20 y/o's are hanging out with the over 50 crowd?
My 20 y/o kids still hang out with their over 50 y/o parents. I imagine we're not an exception as we have many friends whose kids still hang out with them. But this over 50 y/o parent isn't too concerned about Covid.

Just keep your distance, and wear a face cover if you want to.
Carnwellag2
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AggieYankee1 said:



Need I remind you - you are not denying that local health care is near 85% capacity right now....


how are we at 85% capacity with 27 covid hospitalizations???
trouble
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Because there are still other people in the hospital too?
MiMi
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S
And the 27 patients are just those from Brazos County. There are other COVID patients in our local hospitals that came from nearby counties.
Rapier108
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Carnwellag2 said:

AggieYankee1 said:



Need I remind you - you are not denying that local health care is near 85% capacity right now....


how are we at 85% capacity with 27 covid hospitalizations???
Because there are people in the hospital for things other than the Chinese virus. Life didn't stop despite the media and doomers acting like it did. People still go to the hospital for other things, including to ICU.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
etj77845
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Before we get carried away with capacity, understand what a "Staffed Hospital Bed" really means.

Quote:

Staffed Beds
Numbers of staffed beds are taken from a hospital's most recent Medicare cost report (W/S S-3, Part I, col.1). Cost report instructions define staffed beds as, "the number of beds available for use by patients at the end of the cost reporting period. A bed means an adult bed, pediatric bed, birthing room, or newborn bed maintained in a patient care area for lodging patients in acute, long term, or domiciliary areas of the hospital. Beds in labor room, birthing room, postanesthesia, postoperative recovery rooms, outpatient areas, emergency rooms, ancillary departments, nurses' and other staff residences, and other such areas which are regularly maintained and utilized for only a portion of the stay of patients (primarily for special procedures or not for inpatient lodging) are not termed a bed for these purposes." The total number of general med/surg beds plus special care beds are reported:
  • General Medical/Surgical Beds are the beds used for routine care.
  • Special Care Beds include Intensive Care Units, Coronary Care Units, etc.

Edit to add.

The COVID Pt count for the TSA 'N' is significant in that we have a somewhat accurate count of the true load placed on facilities in the area. This includes those counties that would transport to B/CS hospital centers. Since 5.23 this number has gone from around 10 to 44.
AggieYankee1
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etj77845 said:

Before we get carried away with capacity, understand what a "Staffed Hospital Bed" really means.

Quote:

Staffed Beds
Numbers of staffed beds are taken from a hospital's most recent Medicare cost report (W/S S-3, Part I, col.1). Cost report instructions define staffed beds as, "the number of beds available for use by patients at the end of the cost reporting period. A bed means an adult bed, pediatric bed, birthing room, or newborn bed maintained in a patient care area for lodging patients in acute, long term, or domiciliary areas of the hospital. Beds in labor room, birthing room, postanesthesia, postoperative recovery rooms, outpatient areas, emergency rooms, ancillary departments, nurses' and other staff residences, and other such areas which are regularly maintained and utilized for only a portion of the stay of patients (primarily for special procedures or not for inpatient lodging) are not termed a bed for these purposes." The total number of general med/surg beds plus special care beds are reported:
  • General Medical/Surgical Beds are the beds used for routine care.
  • Special Care Beds include Intensive Care Units, Coronary Care Units, etc.

Edit to add.

The COVID Pt count for the TSA 'N' is significant in that we have a somewhat accurate count of the true load placed on facilities in the area. This includes those counties that would transport to B/CS hospital centers. Since 5.23 this number has gone from around 10 to 44.


There is no denying - that if we are doubling our hospital population every two weeks - it is reasonable to say that once you add another 40-50% of people - those numbers will increase. Especially adding to the population of the people who are currently becoming infected.

Update ref today...

There were nine discharged along with 13 admitted... does anyone really think that 9 people all of a sudden just got better on the same day 13 got sick.

It is more likely that they saw a huge influx and the staff made a choice to have some young's discharged to make room.

There is simply no denying that if people keep heeding the advice of forum and Facebook posts - our nursing staff and Hospitals will be thrown under the bus and told to suck it up so no one has to admit that they have to take precautions.

This is no argument for crazy's eyed shut downs because we all know that even if things did get out of hand the deniers would win the day and they would turn out with God knows what strapped to their bodies.

But all we are asking is as we open you care about the economy because if you do not care about others you will scare people back into their house and then - boom goes the economy until there is a vaccine next year!


The truth is the numbers are already forcing our local hospitals to hit capacity and so more kids will get sick along with older people.
It is time to deny the deniers - y'all were wrong to say "masks are government tyranny"

Do you shack your fists at yellow caution lights and say "i do not need big brother warning me about a cross street" - or so you tap the break look both ways and then glide through - thinking as a society how nice is it that we care for one another so much that we put up caution lights to say "hey be careful - you might get hurt if you do not look both way".
Rapier108
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Quote:

There were nine discharged along with 13 admitted... does anyone really think that 9 people all of a sudden just got better on the same day 13 got sick.

It is more likely that they saw a huge influx and the staff made a choice to have some young's discharged to make room.
You have absolutely zero proof of this, but based on your very short posting history, you are completely invested in DOOM, and believe this virus will destroy everything. You accuse people who do not want to keep the schools closed or businesses shut down of not wanting to be safe, or not caring about others.

Quote:

There is simply no denying that if people keep heeding the advice of forum and Facebook posts - our nursing staff and Hospitals will be thrown under the bus and told to suck it up so no one has to admit that they have to take precautions.

This is no argument for crazy's eyed shut downs because we all know that even if things did get out of hand the deniers would win the day and they would turn out with God knows what strapped to their bodies.

But all we are asking is as we open you care about he economy because if you do not care about others you will scare people back into their house and then - boom goes the economy until there is a vaccine next year!
Here you basically admit you want to shut everything down, but people who don't agreed are "crazy eyed" who only care about the economy and not other people.

If you want to stay home, go right ahead. There is no proof there will ever be a vaccine so quit relying on that.

You can't stand those who don't agree with you so you toss out insults. If you want an echo chamber, try the Coronaboard.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
AggieYankee1
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Rapier108 said:

Quote:

There were nine discharged along with 13 admitted... does anyone really think that 9 people all of a sudden just got better on the same day 13 got sick.

It is more likely that they saw a huge influx and the staff made a choice to have some young's discharged to make room.
You have absolutely zero proof of this, but based on your very short posting history, you are completely invested in DOOM, and believe this virus will destroy everything. You accuse people who do not want to keep the schools closed or businesses shut down of not wanting to be safe, or not caring about others.

Quote:

There is simply no denying that if people keep heeding the advice of forum and Facebook posts - our nursing staff and Hospitals will be thrown under the bus and told to suck it up so no one has to admit that they have to take precautions.

This is no argument for crazy's eyed shut downs because we all know that even if things did get out of hand the deniers would win the day and they would turn out with God knows what strapped to their bodies.

But all we are asking is as we open you care about he economy because if you do not care about others you will scare people back into their house and then - boom goes the economy until there is a vaccine next year!
Here you basically admit you want to shut everything down, but people who don't agreed are "crazy eyed" who only care about the economy and not other people.

If you want to stay home, go right ahead. There is no proof there will ever be a vaccine so quit relying on that.

You can't stand those who don't agree with you so you toss out insults. If you want an echo chamber, try the Coronaboard.


Sir - please stop denying the truth because it suits your desire to ignore the truth.
we are in the top 10 for infections - our hospitalizations have doubled and it is only getting worse - and yes it stand to reason that as 13 people came in needing to be admitted the staff got together and said - where do we put them and doctors got together and said - they people can be let go so we can put ANOTHER 13 people somewhere.

You are calling speaking the truth , fear

Well - It is typical that those faced with the truth deny the truth because they themselves are ether afraid or are perfectly safe and are not in harms way.

we are on the aggieland board because aggieland is one of the worst in the country right now and our hospitals serve another 5-6 county's. Because people jump on boards and say - OPEN IT UP ITS ALL FAKE NEWS. ( ironically which is in and of itself fake news)

I am arguing for looking at things with a level head and being honest- not crazy, honest - you seem to want to deny things that are happening. Which one of us is acting scared?
AggieYankee1
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[Remain respectful on this board. -Staff]
Expert Analysis
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If you want to be honest, then stop speculating.

Here are today's stats.
16 new cases
0 new deaths
0 new tests
31 in the hospital (+13 -9)

See how the numbers do not make perfect sense. Weird stuff happens over the weekend, plus reporting of the numbers is fairly poor to begin with.

Our hospitals are not at or over capacity so your theory that sick people are being released to make room for sicker people is unwarranted.
Expert Analysis
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As previously noted, if the health department would provide more information it would allow people to better formulate their opinions instead of just speculating based on poor data and unknown variables.
trouble
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Expert Analysis said:

As previously noted, if the health department would provide more information it would allow people to better formulate their opinions instead of just speculating based on poor data and unknown variables.


Ding ding ding! We have a winner!
nought
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AggieYankee1 said:





There were nine discharged along with 13 admitted... does anyone really think that 9 people all of a sudden just got better on the same day 13 got sick.

It is more likely that they saw a huge influx and the staff made a choice to have some young's discharged to make room.


Again, our hospitals are not "at" or "near" capacity. They have a very normal capacity right now. It is normal for regular hospital beds to be occupied at around a 70% rate and ICU beds to be occupied at around an 80% rate. Hospitals would go broke if they didn't have roughly this capacity. Why do you think Scott & White had to lay people off and was begging to be allowed to have non-COVID-19 patients admitted?

Our current hospitalization numbers reflect a roughly normal usage of beds, with a few of those beds being occupied by COVID-19-positive patients (some of who have co-morbidities/other conditions that could have caused them to be hospitalized anyway).
toolshed
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AggieYankee1 said:




Update ref today...

There were nine discharged along with 13 admitted... does anyone really think that 9 people all of a sudden just got better on the same day 13 got sick.

It is more likely that they saw a huge influx and the staff made a choice to have some young's discharged to make room.


There is simply no denying that if people keep heeding the advice of forum and Facebook posts - our nursing staff and Hospitals will be thrown under the bus and told to suck it up so no one has to admit that they have to take precautions.

This is no argument for crazy's eyed shut downs because we all know that even if things did get out of hand the deniers would win the day and they would turn out with God knows what strapped to their bodies.

But all we are asking is as we open you care about the economy because if you do not care about others you will scare people back into their house and then - boom goes the economy until there is a vaccine next year!


The truth is the numbers are already forcing our local hospitals to hit capacity and so more kids will get sick along with older people.
It is time to deny the deniers - y'all were wrong to say "masks are government tyranny"

Do you shack your fists at yellow caution lights and say "i do not need big brother warning me about a cross street" - or so you tap the break look both ways and then glide through - thinking as a society how nice is it that we care for one another so much that we put up caution lights to say "hey be careful - you might get hurt if you do not look both way".
Do you honestly believe that the health department, media, etc. who have been telling us how serious this is, that the sky is falling, etc. would not report that we have so many cases that we are kicking out people who have not recovered to make way for more sick people who may be in worse shape (or whatever your reasoning for the Dr's making the decision to kick out 9 for the 13 new ones to come in).

Why do you doubt that 9 people have been hospitalized long enough to be recovered, or considered well enough to be discharged? Do you honestly believe that the same health officials and media who are reporting everyone needs to wear masks or we're doomed wouldn't be reporting on the fact that we are now at the point of rationing hospital beds now because of so bad?

The truth is you have no data, no evidence to support such claims of kicking people out of beds to make way for more sick people, simply assuming and fear mongering. This type of "reporting" is why people have no trust in the system to begin with, because false claims are made, based in fear or to promote fear, and shame people for asking simple questions, for dots to be connected instead of everyone having to make assumptions to back their claims, sane or insane!!
91_Aggie
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Conspiracy theories rampant on both extremes.

here are the two extreme sides... if you find yourself on one of these you are the lunatic fringe.

We should open everything back with up no restrictions and Hell no, I won't wear mask at all.

and

We should not be opening anything up because someone might get sick and die.


Find a middle ground and be reasonable.
Wearing a mask doesn't mean you believe the "doomers" or that you suddenly a Democrat But there is enough evidence since all this started that should convince reasonable person it can slow the spread of the virus. A reasonable person who just the smallest bit concern for anyone but themselves would say "Yeah, I can handle this minor inconvenience for the sake of others" (and I would say if you consider yourself a Christian this would be a no-brainer of an attitude to take).


And clinging to some hope that you can stop everyone from getting it if we just stay completely shutdown until a vaccine is produced is not reasonable either or maybe, "if the last person who has it gets over it, then we can open up and everyone will be safe". We'll have more health problems besides Covid if that happens. And so far, the mortality rate is very low for those under 55. The elderly and those with the health conditions that are in danger need to make sure they protect themselves.



isitjustme
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You do, however, seem to be convinced that the face covering is the deal breaker. As an over-55 Christian who goes out often and is doing just fine, I take your insinuation that millions of Christians like me who don't think face coverings are needed are brainless to be offensive. But that's ok. I forgive you and will simply distance from you and all will remain just fine.
MeKnowNot
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Governor Abbott at today's press conference:

"I know that some people feel that wearing a mask is inconvenient or is an infringement of freedom, but I also know that wearing a mask will help us to keep Texas open," he said. "Not taking action to slow the spread will cause COVID-19 to spread even worse, risking people's lives and ultimately leading to the closure of more businesses."
isitjustme
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MeKnowNot said:

RGovernor Abbott at today's press conference:

"I know that some people feel that wearing a mask is inconvenient or is an infringement of freedom, but I also know that wearing a mask will help us to keep Texas open," he said. "Not taking action to slow the spread will cause COVID-19 to spread even worse, risking people's lives and ultimately leading to the closure of more businesses."
Yet the Governor did not mandate them. He encourages them. I can accept that. Wear them if you want to.
laavispa
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Quote:

And clinging to some hope that you can stop everyone from getting it
Cynic that I am. First from the day you are born- you are dying. Some people take longer than others. Second with COVID it is not IF but WHEN you contract the disease.

My objective is to postpone #1 AND #2 as long as possible. In doing so just maybe I keep #2 from interrupting goal #1.

motherrunnersBCS
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Last I heard, wearing a mask protects you something like 60%, but other people more like 80%. I wear a mask now if I have to leave the house, because I think I am recovering from covid. And let me tell you, it is horrible. It is horrible to have it, it is horrible to "recover from" (I need to change my user name, no way am I running any time soon, I barely hobble to my car and back), and it must be a horrible way to die. I was middle-aged but healthy. I think we have a lot more cases than are showing in the numbers. If I'm out there, I'm sure others are too.

I was so stupid, Thought I was below the age to worry, and I have strong lungs. Maybe that is why I did not have to go to the hospital, but I do not have strong lungs anymore. I only wore a mask sometimes when I thought I was going somewhere "dangerous", like the post office. I did not wear any protection when running, or outside anywhere. I did not wear a mask in Lowes because I only went to the outdoor section. I did not want to wear a mask in the grocery store, so I only did pick up, ignoring the fact that not all delivery people were going to wear masks. I talked to neighbors outside, six feet apart but no mask. I live alone so I have to do all my own errands. Plus I was bored, so I thought I needed out of the house.



Don't live with the regrets I now do - my life is probably forever changed. And I really hope I do not give it to someone else, or get it again.


[We are doing our best to keep these thread civil and respectful. Please refrain from being insulting to others that don't agree with you -Staff]
cavscout96
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motherrunnersBCS said:

Last I heard, wearing a mask protects you something like 60%, but other people more like 80%. I wear a mask now if I have to leave the house, because I think I am recovering from covid. And let me tell you, it is horrible. It is horrible to have it, it is horrible to "recover from" (I need to change my user name, no way am I running any time soon, I barely hobble to my car and back), and it must be a horrible way to die. I was middle-aged but healthy. I think we have a lot more cases than are showing in the numbers. If I'm out there, I'm sure others are too.

I was so stupid, Thought I was below the age to worry, and I have strong lungs. Maybe that is why I did not have to go to the hospital, but I do not have strong lungs anymore. I only wore a mask sometimes when I thought I was going somewhere "dangerous", like the post office. I did not wear any protection when running, or outside anywhere. I did not wear a mask in Lowes because I only went to the outdoor section. I did not want to wear a mask in the grocery store, so I only did pick up, ignoring the fact that not all delivery people were going to wear masks. I talked to neighbors outside, six feet apart but no mask. I live alone so I have to do all my own errands. Plus I was bored, so I thought I needed out of the house.



Don't live with the regrets I now do - my life is probably forever changed. And I really hope I do not give it to someone else, or get it again.
Not sure this is accurate. I would like to see the reference.

If you think you've had it, why have you not been tested?
Carnwellag2
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AggieYankee1 said:



Update ref today...

There were nine discharged along with 13 admitted... does anyone really think that 9 people all of a sudden just got better on the same day 13 got sick.

It is more likely that they saw a huge influx and the staff made a choice to have some young's discharged to make room.

There is simply no denying that if people keep heeding the advice of forum and Facebook posts - our nursing staff and Hospitals will be thrown under the bus and told to suck it up so no one has to admit that they have to take precautions.

This is no argument for crazy's eyed shut downs because we all know that even if things did get out of hand the deniers would win the day and they would turn out with God knows what strapped to their bodies.

But all we are asking is as we open you care about the economy because if you do not care about others you will scare people back into their house and then - boom goes the economy until there is a vaccine next year!


The truth is the numbers are already forcing our local hospitals to hit capacity and so more kids will get sick along with older people.
It is time to deny the deniers - y'all were wrong to say "masks are government tyranny"

Do you shack your fists at yellow caution lights and say "i do not need big brother warning me about a cross street" - or so you tap the break look both ways and then glide through - thinking as a society how nice is it that we care for one another so much that we put up caution lights to say "hey be careful - you might get hurt if you do not look both way".
with hospitals and clinics laying off thousands and having vast empty wings, it seems like hospital directors back in March should have been planning to shift resources towards the COVID disease, right??? I mean with elective procedures being cancelled and less people involved in accidents due to SIP. seems obvious?

Hospitals are businesses, who are the smart directors who shifted resources?





laavispa
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The most authoritative report I have seen was produced by the Army's Chemical Biological Center back in April.
The report only addresses homemade masks of the type typically seen locally.


Quote:

They found that one of the best readily available materials to use in a homemade face covering is four-ply microfiber cloth which can be found in the cleaning section of most big box stores. It filters out over 75 percent of particles. In comparison, the N95 mask used by healthcare workers in hospitals can filter 95 percent of particles or greater. The team also found that even a polyester bandana can be reasonably effective if it is used in layers. It will filter out 40 percent of suspended particles.

https://www.cbc.ccdc.army.mil/newspost/ccdc-chemical-biological-center-tests-for-the-best-homemade-face-covering-materials/

You might check out this as well https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/05/19/anti-microbial-machine-washable-face-masks-coming-to-soldiers-to-help-protect-against-coronavirus/

And Biosmart material may not be available for civilian market
 
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