Elephant in the room

11,157 Views | 116 Replies | Last: 13 days ago by medic1969p
AggieYankee1
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So, I just wanted to get the groups take on the 'elephant' in the room...

It would seem that the largest group getting this is 20 somethings and up. Our hospitals are near capacity with over flow currently being sent to the signature care on university.

Brazos Valley Urgent Care and Caprock are getting pushed to the limit right now and St Joes and BSW are near 85 - 90 % capacity.

The question is ... does anyone think it is going to get better once we add another 50,000 20 somethings and let schools open?

Or are we just gonna tell the nursing staff and hospitals suck it up for 3 months?

I know some of y'all might not care but I would like an honest conversation.

What are your expectations for our health care system in about 1 1/2 months?
new straw
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As a nurse on telemetry and covid floor, I expect it to be crap. But I also expect this board to say otherwise. It's not true if it isn't in their numbers.
AggieYankee1
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Let's not insult people - let's have a frank Conversation. Because an informed population can see the truth and make choices not assuming everything is going to be A OK. If they truly know it could get bad... very bad around here, not to mention that we serve as a hub for surrounding counties.

I am assuming right now we are stocking up as very before.

Extra beds
Iv's
Brazos Expo can maybe hold another 50-100 people.

St Joes does not have room for a tent city - so I'm assuming they are gonna be the ones to get the EXPO.

BSW has a big parking lot and will almost certainly suspend electives. Nurse will be Brought back from furlough or laid off and handle the parking lot tent traffic.

Where else? A local school gym? Storms are pretty bad down here in September OCT so having a large outdoor tent city not next to a hospital or shelter is a bad idea.

There is also the Bryan Business Park that has great power source and easy access off the highway.

I'm worried about the guy or gal who gets into a serious car accident and loses their life because they simply can not take care of them properly.
GiveEmHellBill
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AG
AggieYankee1 said:

So, I just wanted to get the groups take on the 'elephant' in the room...

It would seem that the largest group getting this is 20 somethings and up. Our hospitals are near capacity with over flow currently being sent to the signature care on university.

Brazos Valley Urgent Care and Caprock are getting pushed to the limit right now and St Joes and BSW are near 85 - 90 % capacity.




27 total current hospitalizations, down from 29 two days ago.

That's some elephant in your room.
GiveEmHellBill
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AG

[Discussions will remain respectful on this forum. -Staff]
AggieYankee1
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That is without an additional 50,000 people and open schools.

Need I remind you - you are not denying that local health care is near 85% capacity right now....

This is no - wait another 2 weeks - this is wait for 10,000's of young irresponsible people coming into a place that does not have the ability to handle the ratio increase.

Meaning - 120,000 people 86%
200,000 - same ratio of beds but increased ratio of population against those bed - with the same group getting sick that fill the bed.

I would like us all to be honest in this conversation. We owe it to the health care system and ourselves to be honest and say ... this might not turn out well if I do not do my part.
GiveEmHellBill
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Quote:

Need I remind you - you are not denying that local health care is near 85% capacity right now....
There are 27 COVID patients in local hospitals at this moment.

Down from 29 two days ago.
AggieYankee1
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86-90% with more than 50,000 to go plus schools.

86-90% without those 50,000. Living in Ag shacks - large apartments. Right now they are relatively spread out. But not come August.

Please focus on the question not the ridicule.
GiveEmHellBill
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AG
I'm sorry, but you keep throwing out 86-90% capacity while the BCHD reports only 27 hospitalized. Down from 29 two days ago.

Where are you getting your numbers? I'm getting mine from the health department.
AggieYankee1
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GiveEmHellBill said:

AggieYankee1 said:

So, I just wanted to get the groups take on the 'elephant' in the room...

It would seem that the largest group getting this is 20 somethings and up. Our hospitals are near capacity with over flow currently being sent to the signature care on university.

Brazos Valley Urgent Care and Caprock are getting pushed to the limit right now and St Joes and BSW are near 85 - 90 % capacity.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea-BxoqXgAA_Oxf?format=jpg&name=medium

27 total current hospitalizations, down from 29 two days ago.

That's some elephant in your room.


That is double than what is was "two weeks ago".

Actually 52*

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/06/20/exclusive-new-data-details-growing-capacity-concerns-for-area-hospitals/

*** update - do not take my non answer as anything other then I hit my post limit. See y'all in 24 hrs.
GiveEmHellBill
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AggieYankee1 said:

GiveEmHellBill said:

AggieYankee1 said:

So, I just wanted to get the groups take on the 'elephant' in the room...

It would seem that the largest group getting this is 20 somethings and up. Our hospitals are near capacity with over flow currently being sent to the signature care on university.

Brazos Valley Urgent Care and Caprock are getting pushed to the limit right now and St Joes and BSW are near 85 - 90 % capacity.




27 total current hospitalizations, down from 29 two days ago.

That's some elephant in your room.


That is double than what is was "two weeks ago".

Actually 52*

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/06/20/exclusive-new-data-details-growing-capacity-concerns-for-area-hospitals/
Quote:

In Thursday's report that was shared with local emergency and health authorities, hospitals in Brazos County reported a total of 52 patients with COVID-19 related illnesses. Of that total, 27 are Brazos County residents with confirmed cases of COVID-19. The others are residents from area counties who have been admitted to Brazos County hospitals and patients without a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis.
Actually 27. The others aren't from Brazos County.

Quote:

State officials including Governor Greg Abbott said this week there are still plenty of hospital beds and ventilators in the state for patients who need them. In it's latest report on Friday, The Texas Department of Health and Human Services reported 3,138 total COVID-19 patients hospitalized. 13,591 hospital beds were still available including 1,443 ICU beds and nearly 6,000 ventilators ready to use.
oklaunion
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How many of the lecturers, profs, and department personnel who will come into contact with students are over 65? They are currently teaching remotely or are very isolated at their work stations. Probably won't be in August. I expect more hospitalizations than the local systems can handle.
tb9665
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I think what people are missing is that yes there might only be 27 or so from Brazos County but the local hospitals are getting full. The surrounding countries come here for medical treatments. If people don't practice social distancing etc. there will not be room anywhere for any kind of hospital treatments. It's not a good situation when a city is making Urgent Cares for Covid only patients.
LOYAL AG
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AggieYankee1 said:

GiveEmHellBill said:

AggieYankee1 said:

So, I just wanted to get the groups take on the 'elephant' in the room...

It would seem that the largest group getting this is 20 somethings and up. Our hospitals are near capacity with over flow currently being sent to the signature care on university.

Brazos Valley Urgent Care and Caprock are getting pushed to the limit right now and St Joes and BSW are near 85 - 90 % capacity.




27 total current hospitalizations, down from 29 two days ago.

That's some elephant in your room.


That is double than what is was "two weeks ago".

Actually 52*

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/06/20/exclusive-new-data-details-growing-capacity-concerns-for-area-hospitals/

*** update - do not take my non answer as anything other then I hit my post limit. See y'all in 24 hrs.


Take this for what it is which is genuinely trying to understand your statistics. We have 52 hospitalizations and you're saying that's 90% capacity. Does that mean we only have 57 hospital beds in Brazos County? Of course not we all know that's not true. So what's does the 90% represent and why can't we increase capacity? Less than a month ago BSW announced 1200 layoffs which would seem to indicate they aren't busting at the seems.

What has never changed is that this has always been about stretching the infections out to avoid over taxing our hospitals. To that end I get the spirit of your question but I find it impossible to believe 52 hospitalizations is more than the three hospitals in BCS can handle.

To directly answer your OP I don't really know what we'll do but if the government starts shutting things down again the damage will be significant to this community and to this country. I own a small business consulting with other small businesses. I'm probably as aware as anyone here about the impact this thing has had on our small businesses and is not pretty. Lost revenues. Lost jobs. (No property tax relief though in fact here a property tax increase. Looking at you City of Bryan.) We're asking small business owners to support 12 months of life with nine months of revenue. Of course it's worse than that because they lost three of their stronger months.

So far nobody I work with has thrown in the towel but another shutdown and who knows. We've seen businesses close. Another shut down and that number will grow substantially and for what? We're destroying lives to quarantine healthy people so they don't get a virus that is extremely unlikely to kill them. On March 9 I understood even if I disagreed. On June 21 another closure would be illogical and the destruction indefensible.

So what do we do? We look for ways to protect those at risk of dying and the rest of us go in with life knowing we'll get it and confident that there's a 99.8% chance we'll survive.
toolshed
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AggieYankee1 said:

That is without an additional 50,000 people and open schools.

Need I remind you - you are not denying that local health care is near 85% capacity right now....

This is no - wait another 2 weeks - this is wait for 10,000's of young irresponsible people coming into a place that does not have the ability to handle the ratio increase.

Meaning - 120,000 people 86%
200,000 - same ratio of beds but increased ratio of population against those bed - with the same group getting sick that fill the bed.

I would like us all to be honest in this conversation. We owe it to the health care system and ourselves to be honest and say ... this might not turn out well if I do not do my part.


You do realize that your 86% is of the capacity of the hospital and not the population of the town, right? Not sure why you're using the 120,000 and 200,000 numbers in relation to the percent capacity at the medical centers?

How many empty beds and floors are there now at the old Med that St Joes purchased? Has it been fully restarted and at 87% capacity as well?

The problem with your "Elephant in the room" is that we haven't been told the truth from the beginning by those in charge. They're decided what information is worthy to be passed along and made the decision that they know better than us plebes, so they withhold information and distort the facts to their own advantage, to strike up fear and loathing among the population.

First it was millions dead in the US within weeks.

Masks don't work and won't help, wait, yes they do, you'll only survive if you wear one at all times, even in your car by yourself on a country road. The WHO says masks aren't effective, US says yes they are. Now the US officials admit they told us they weren't effective so the health professionals could have plenty of PPE. While that's necessary for them to have it, the admission that you lied just adds another strike against you, as to why the public doesn't trust the officials in charge.

Numerous papers support both sides of the argument regarding transmission. And I'd give more weight to those papers published before the hysteria than the ones published now, knowing there's an agenda. Since you can also get it through your eyes, I don't see anyone recommending wearing swimming goggles all the time?! I laugh every press conference I see these stupid politicians in the background, making sure they are seen on camera, with their mask over their mouth and their nose holes wide open and exposed to the world. What idiots!

Asymptomatic people are spreading this like wildfire! Wait, no they aren't, they may not really be spreading it at all. Wait, pay no attention to that statement, they are spreading it, everyone put on a mask! Two if you have them!

We are misled on the numbers locally, not given the full information (not asking for HIPA or patients rights to be violated). Just some simple connection of the dots would go far in informing the public properly, without fear mongering. Most of the local headlines from the media are ridiculous. We get good news on number of cases for a few days, but instead of reporting that in a positive manner, they find another attention grabber to post as "Breaking News"! I get it, fear sells, promotes clicks and gets them their ad money. There's an underlying agenda to how the media reports the news and it's sickening. And frankly, I'm tired of it and no longer trust the media to give unbiased information, whether local news or national. It's all about selling a viewpoint, and making a headline more salacious to get a click.

If, as noted elsewhere, Amarillo and other cities can give better information with more dots connected, why can't we?

I could go on, but what's the point? Arguing and facts don't seem to sway anyone's viewpoint. You have yours and I'll have mine and we can just move on.


Edited for numerous spelling errors!
agrab86
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Many of us, including me, posted on this site that there would be an increase in cv cases when we ended the shelter in place and started to reopen the economy. The shelter in place was largely to prepare the hospitals, which I believe they are. They are working together. No one is going without care. And those in their 20s & 30s (the current surge) rarely need hospital care if they get cv.

My big question before the reopening is how will governing bodies react to these increased cases. Nobody except the most hyper-worried wants to close the economy again. If we do, we are even more screwed. The biggest thing we can all do is distance in small groups, something 20- & 30-somethings aren't very good at. And if you really want to wear a mask, then by all means wear one. But distancing from others you don't know is most effective.

I hope governments - local or state - don't do anything rash like reissue a shelter in place order. The Gov. seems to be on the right track and hopefully the locals are forced to follow.
Tailgate88
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In regards to the 50,000 students, I would argue the combined damage being caused to their lives by the lockdown is greater damage than Covid would be.

Posted by Rapier on the other thread:

Quote:

From what I've heard, they're testing anyone who have had contact with a confirmed case, someone who was tested after showing symptoms. A lot of the people being tested due to contact are coming back positive, but either asymptomatic or very mild cases. This has resulted in multiple cases where residences with 4, 5, 6+ roommates all testing positive for it, but none being sick. Testing is readily available in Brazos County. All of the hospitals and their affiliated clinics can usually test someone same day or next day at the latest. Same for most of the urgent care places. If someone has had contact with a known case, that is all it takes to get in to get tested.

Since people under 30 are at extremely low risk of serious illness, unless they have underlying health issues which will cause a problem regardless of age, it is good that it is burning its way through that demographic right now, before all the students come back. If we want the pandemic to end, then herd immunity is the only true solution since there is no guarantee a worthwhile vaccine will ever be developed, or if it is, it could be a year or two away. The doomers don't realize that locking everyone up again will not stop this virus. All it will do is create a slow burn, and the virus will just be waiting to reappear with a vengeance. The damage a long term lock down would cause would be far worse than the virus ever could be. There are no good solutions, only the least bad one, and that is to just get it over with, while doing the best possible to protect the most vulnerable part of the population.
toolshed
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And who's to say these college students aren't getting sick now wherever they are, becoming immune before they even get here. Maybe they'd be out and about more at their college town vs at home, but we act like we are the epicenter, and all these healthy kids will show up, get sick and spread it like wildfire. There are a lot of assumptions being made to promote and perpetuate the fear.
Belton Ag
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I believe there is a different elephant in the room. That is that we don't know if there will ever be a vaccine, and if one is developed it may not be very effective and is probably a year or more away from being ready to go. We also don't know if herd immunity is achievable because we have no idea if humans can develop durable immunity after contracting the virus.

The fact that students returning to College Station will cause the virus to spread is no secret and definitely no "elephant in the room." We know and expect that to happen. It's been discussed a lot.






agrab86
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There are also a lot of some simple questions upon testing positive that could help solve some of this, and then share certain categorized responses. Questions like:

Did you go to northgate or other bar area recently? What day, what bar(s)?
Did you go to Lake Bryan or other similar place recently? What day, what place?
Did you go to church recently? What day, what church?
Did you attend a protest recently? What day and where?
Did you attend a party recently? When and where?

They may already be asking these questions, which would be good. My guess is this would cover a vast majority of the new "community spread" cases since shelter in place ended. And if a lot of infected had the same response for any particular time and place, then those should be classified as cluster, not community spread.

I think there is a lot less random transmission at places like HEB, Walmart, and restaurants than they would like us to believe. Customers are not that close to each other or staff, and many staff, esp in restaurants, are masked up. Working in large groups in close proximity, living very close to each other in bunches, and attending large gatherings with minimal distancing are the hotspot areas.

Btw, I can answer yes to the first 4, but we had decent distancing at all but the protest event, and few masks were worn by most and none by me. But still no covid,
birdman
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Of course there will be an increase in cases when students return. That's obvious.

But stating that local hospitals are at 86% capacity is a preposterous lie.
JMac03
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AG
I seriously doubt 50k students are coming back here in the fall. I bet many stay home and do
classes online.
aggiegal99
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OP- Where are you getting your info that overflow from hospitals is going to the "signature care" on University? (I don't think that's the name of it, but I haven't driven by lately). The article on KBTX says that CapRock is consolidating their Covid-19 patients at their facility on University instead of having them at all 4 facilities. That seems like a smart move both business and health wise, but it's not because they are at capacity. And it has nothing to do with the capacity at the hospitals.

You want an honest conversation. Be honest in the facts you are presenting.
MiMi
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S
Quote:

Where are you getting your info that overflow from hospitals is going to the "signature care" on University? (I don't think that's the name of it, but I haven't driven by lately).
Signature Care in on Texas Ave across from the Kohl's shopping center. Caprock Urgent Care is on University at Century Square and is where they want their COVID cases to go instead of their other locations.
Oogway
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W/O getting into the 'elephant' debate, the discussion about which #'s are from Brazos county vs the seven surrounding counties is relevant only to a certain extent wouldn't you think? The DHS dashboard displays the regional #s and availability w/respect to hospital capacity but are the local hospitals to turn people away if they aren't from Brazos County and need medical attention? Regardless of whether one thinks there is an issue or not, total capacity for the region and not just Brazos county seems to be what the health officials are considering as they are planning. It's not like people are having their temps taken as they travel to and fro in the greater metro.
FlyRod
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Not at all unreasonable to plan/prepare for what are likely going to be very real consequences as fall begins. Even if most young people returning will be ok, they will be exposed to a lot of people over 50 in the workplace, who don't have the option of locking themselves up (including at TAMU).

We know by now that that demographic is more likely to get sick, require longer hospitalization, and suffer worse outcomes. The costs speak for themselves, in devastated families, medical bills, and a strain on the local health care networks.

Prepping for this seems like pure common sense rather then being caught off guard when it happens.
91_Aggie
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AG
Is the county posting the ages of those in the hospital? I want to know those demographics. And the doomers should as well. If none of them are in their 20s (or if they are but had other health issues) the. 50,000 20-somethings may not impact other than causing more interactions with the 59+ group.

techno-ag
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AG
I'll be glad when all the fear mongering stops. Maybe after the election, sheesh.
halibut sinclair
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trouble
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They are not. Sullivan claims it violates HIPAA.

We get age ranges for those who test positive and then for deaths.
Expert Analysis
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trouble said:

They are not. Sullivan claims it violates HIPAA.

We get age ranges for those who test positive and then for deaths.

Health department could do a lot better to inform our community.

Sub 40 year olds are not filling up our hospitals.
How many ICU beds do we even have here?
GSS
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trouble said:

They are not. Sullivan claims it violates HIPAA.

We get age ranges for those who test positive and then for deaths.
And this...
HHS emergency declaration

"Health and Human Services Secretary Alex M. Azar II declared a public health emergency for the entire United States to aid the nation's healthcare community in responding to 2019 novel coronavirus."

Directly ties into this...
HIPAA info

"Is the HIPAA Privacy Rule suspended during a national or public health emergency?"

Does not take a lawyer to interpret that additional information could be released, but for reasons we will never know, some secrecy seems to be desired...
NRA Life
TSRA Life
91_Aggie
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trouble said:

They are not. Sullivan claims it violates HIPAA.

We get age ranges for those who test positive and then for deaths.
ugh, if not being able to release a stat of:
"79% of those hospitalized are 60 years and older" due to HIPAA, then that law is just silly.

There's no privacy concerns with data that generalized.
Rapier108
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Our local media should be hitting Sullivan over the head with that question until he coughs up an answer, but they won't do it.

Also, what is the average stay for patients in the hospital?

How many patients have required ventilators and how many currently do?

How many of those in the hospital are in ICU and non-ICU?

Not all people in the hospital are in ICU. Some only need supportive oxygen therapy for a few days before being discharged, and this does not require ICU.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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91_Aggie said:

trouble said:

They are not. Sullivan claims it violates HIPAA.

We get age ranges for those who test positive and then for deaths.
ugh, if not being able to release a stat of:
"79% of those hospitalized are 60 years and older" due to HIPAA, then that law is just silly.

There's no privacy concerns with data that generalized.


I didn't say it violates HIPAA. Sullivan did.

There's no reason to not have the hospitalizations broken down into age ranges exactly like the positive results. We don't need to know "there's a 63 year old Hispanic woman in ICU" but "there are 3 patients in the 90s, 4 in their 70s, etc" would be useful information.
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