B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

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Rapier108
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10:42a, 4/23/20
No new cases announced today

8 in the hospital and 65 listed as recovered.

5.5% positive rate on tests.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/No-new-positive-COVID-19-cases-reported-in-Brazos-County-569888821.html
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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tb9665
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10:44a, 4/23/20
Also, still not doing much testing helps keep the numbers down. I wonder how many people would show up to a drive through clinic to be tested if they were asymptomatic and the results would come back positive?
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Rapier108
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In reply to tb9665 • 11:03a, 4/23/20
Even in areas where they've been testing at very high numbers, the general positive rate is around 7%-8%. I was following Seattle and at first, they were running near 50% positive due to that nursing home. It dropped fairly quickly to around 20% and then slowing declined as they ramped up testing to below 10% and seems to fluctuate around 7% give or take a point or two. I'd imagine spikes are due to a large cluster appearing (likely a nursing home) and then it slowly drops back over a few days.

No idea about NYC, but that should be classified by itself rather than lump them in with the rest of the country.

What is really needed is a reliable antibody test to see how many people had it and never had symptoms. Testing for the virus is great, it provides a lot of information, but it cant' show the entire picture.

Still, I'd like to see more testing done in B/CS because there likely a good number of cases never diagnosed because the symptoms were mild so as test was never done.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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H2SAag
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In reply to tb9665 • 12:45p, 4/23/20
AG
tb9665 said:
Also, still not doing much testing helps keep the numbers down. I wonder how many people would show up to a drive through clinic to be tested if they were asymptomatic and the results would come back positive?


All those potential positives aren't sick enough to be in the hospital. So hopefully it is spread throughout BCS
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cavscout96
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In reply to Inca • 2:58p, 4/23/20
AG
Inca said:
Excluding unfavorable data generally yields "better results."
excluding data that is not relevant to the whole data set is good practice for accurate statistical analysis.

That's why we correct for "outliers" or statistical anomalies.

The infection and fatality rates for close-quartered, high-risk individuals is not reflective of the rest of the community.

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Rapier108
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11:47a, 4/24/20
Quote:
BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX)- On Friday, Brazos County health officials have reported four new cases of COVID-19 in the county. The total number of positive cases is 181. Only 88 of the cases are active at this time.

A total of 77 cases have recovered and eight are hospitalized.

A recovered case is an individual that has been fever-free for 72 hours without medications and has been seven days after the first signs of the virus.

A total of 3,239 tests have been administered.

<snip>

According to the data sent by the Brazos County Health District, 11.6% of the cases are travel-related, 42.5% of the cases are community spread and 45.9% are cluster related.
https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/4-new-cases-of-COVID-19-in-Brazos-County-no-new-deaths-569922311.html
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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lockett93
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12:23p, 4/24/20
AG
Last 7 days now the lowest it's been since our first case was reported on March 19. During the first week March 19-26 we had 21 cases. During the last 7 days we've had 17 cases with higher testing as well. I'd say the hospitals aren't at any risk of being overwhelmed and it's time to open up Brazos County.
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In reply to Rapier108 • 6:55p, 4/24/20
AG
Rapier108 said:
According to the data sent by the Brazos County Health District, 11.6% of the cases are travel-related, 42.5% of the cases are community spread and 45.9% are cluster related.
Flashback to when I lived overseas and received A&M football scores nearly a month later.
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nthomas99
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In reply to lockett93 • 11:30a, 4/25/20
AG
lockett93 said:
Last 7 days now the lowest it's been since our first case was reported on March 19. During the first week March 19-26 we had 21 cases. During the last 7 days we've had 17 cases with higher testing as well. I'd say the hospitals aren't at any risk of being overwhelmed and it's time to open up Brazos County.

But, but, but... We have another day today with 0 confirmed cases and hospitalizations down. We are "winning" and we have "almost have this thing beat"! You clearly are super selfish and hate everyone in the community for daring to suggest we can safely go out in public. Come on BCS, we got this! Stay home for the summer!

^^^ Summarizing facebook sentiments I see these days...
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Esteban du Plantier
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12:58p, 4/25/20
AG
Watchlisted.
.
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Cancelled
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4:57p, 4/25/20
AG
I dont think we should get too carried away with numbers of cases. Sure it's good because less people are ill and it show SD works. But the fact is that SD WAS NEVER about reducing the virus or somehow eliminating the virus. We have to be careful with this because there are people that believe that was the purpose. The fact is it was to buy the hospitals time to prepare. Nothing more. If we keep such a mindset, people will want to close up in case there's any increase in cases, which insure there will be.
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cavscout96
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In reply to Cancelled • 7:43a, 4/26/20
AG
queso1 said:
I dont think we should get too carried away with numbers of cases. Sure it's good because less people are ill and it show SD works. But the fact is that SD WAS NEVER about reducing the virus or somehow eliminating the virus. We have to be careful with this because there are people that believe that was the purpose. The fact is it was to buy the hospitals time to prepare. Nothing more. If we keep such a mindset, people will want to close up in case there's any increase in cases, which insure there will be.


Mass media wins. Those were the talking points, verbatim.

Reality... Bad models + bad leadership = panic

Panic + poor policy making = devastated economy

Wake up.
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Rapier108
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11:57a, 4/26/20
Quote:
As of Sunday morning, there is one additional case of COVID-19 in Brazos County, bringing the total number of positive cases to 182.

There are 89 active cases of the virus in the area, with 77 people marked as recovered from COVID-19.

The Brazos County Health District says an error was made on Saturday's announcement about seven current hospitalizations in the county. That number is six.
https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Brazos-County-reports-one-new-case-of-COVID-19-569961421.html
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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cavscout96
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In reply to Cancelled • 12:01p, 4/26/20
AG
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AggieBarstool
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In reply to Cancelled • 12:27p, 4/26/20
queso1 said:
I dont think we should get too carried away with numbers of cases. Sure it's good because less people are ill and it show SD works. But the fact is that SD WAS NEVER about reducing the virus or somehow eliminating the virus. We have to be careful with this because there are people that believe that was the purpose. The fact is it was to buy the hospitals time to prepare. Nothing more. If we keep such a mindset, people will want to close up in case there's any increase in cases, which insure there will be.
Take it a step further, bud. WHY was there concern about availability of hospital beds? Answer: Because the medical community knew if hospitals were overrun, people would die in far greater numbers than those already dead.

So, if you're following along:

SD was to keep hospitalizations at a manageable level (and it worked).
Managing the number of people in the hospital was about maintaining level of care.
Level of care meant, hopefully, fewer deaths.

So, SD = saving lives.
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nthomas99
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In reply to AggieBarstool • 1:02p, 4/26/20
AG
AggieBarstool said:
queso1 said:
I dont think we should get too carried away with numbers of cases. Sure it's good because less people are ill and it show SD works. But the fact is that SD WAS NEVER about reducing the virus or somehow eliminating the virus. We have to be careful with this because there are people that believe that was the purpose. The fact is it was to buy the hospitals time to prepare. Nothing more. If we keep such a mindset, people will want to close up in case there's any increase in cases, which insure there will be.
Take it a step further, bud. WHY was there concern about availability of hospital beds? Answer: Because the medical community knew if hospitals were overrun, people would die in far greater numbers than those already dead.

So, if you're following along:

SD was to keep hospitalizations at a manageable level (and it worked).
Managing the number of people in the hospital was about maintaining level of care.
Level of care meant, hopefully, fewer deaths.

So, SD = saving lives.

I follow the argument, and it's fair to say SD was a sufficient condition to avoid hospital over utilization, but there's no way yet (or maybe ever) to prove it was a necessary condition.

But it's important that we study this deeply to know for future recurrences.

Like many such phenomena, we may find that targeted shutdown of 20% venues of high transmissibility yield 80%+ of the benefit and still satisfy the hospital utilization constraint.
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02skiag
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1:12p, 4/26/20
AG
It seems that all we needed to do, as BCS has shown, is protect nursing homes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nursing-homes-coronavirus-deaths-europe/2020/04/23/d635619c-8561-11ea-81a3-9690c9881111_story.html%3foutputType=amp
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Rapier108
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In reply to 02skiag • 1:30p, 4/26/20
02skiag said:
It seems that all we needed to do, as BCS has shown, is protect nursing homes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nursing-homes-coronavirus-deaths-europe/2020/04/23/d635619c-8561-11ea-81a3-9690c9881111_story.html%3foutputType=amp
And New York was, by the governor's order, sending positive cases into nursing homes.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/new-york-lacked-common-sense-in-nursing-homes-coronavirus-approach/

https://nypost.com/2020/04/22/coronavirus-in-ny-cuomo-says-nursing-homes-must-supply-own-ppe/

https://www.businessinsider.com/nursing-home-given-body-bags-when-they-accepted-coronavirus-patients-2020-4

But B/CS and Texas are supposed to use NY as a basis for how we respond to the virus.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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benchmark
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3:05p, 4/26/20
AG
To summarize,

For the last 7 days since April 20 ... BCS has reported 12 new cases. That's 1.7 new cases per day.

Subtracting the cluster and travel cases for apples-to-apples comparison, that's an avg 2.4 cases/day for community spread cases over the previous 4 weeks.
  • March 23 ... BCS total count was 12 (10 travel + 2 unknown)
  • April 26 ... BCS total count is 182 with community spread (78), travel (21), and cluster (83)
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KidDoc
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3:10p, 4/26/20
AG
Why in the hell is Lick Creek closed. The chance of getting exposed there is nil. Stupid.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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In reply to KidDoc • 3:18p, 4/26/20
AG
KidDoc said:
Why in the hell is Lick Creek closed. The chance of getting exposed there is nil. Stupid.
Bingo. At less than 2 cases/day community-spread over 230,000 population ... same question for every closed business in Brazos County.
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Rapier108
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In reply to KidDoc • 3:26p, 4/26/20
KidDoc said:
Why in the hell is Lick Creek closed. The chance of getting exposed there is nil. Stupid.
Same for Veterans Park, which has been closed for at least a month now. They had the gates locked before the cities ever went into shutdown mode.

People are still going inside, and the Karens are calling the cops on them almost everyday.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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cavscout96
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In reply to AggieBarstool • 4:19p, 4/26/20
AG
AggieBarstool said:
queso1 said:
I dont think we should get too carried away with numbers of cases. Sure it's good because less people are ill and it show SD works. But the fact is that SD WAS NEVER about reducing the virus or somehow eliminating the virus. We have to be careful with this because there are people that believe that was the purpose. The fact is it was to buy the hospitals time to prepare. Nothing more. If we keep such a mindset, people will want to close up in case there's any increase in cases, which insure there will be.
Take it a step further, bud. WHY was there concern about availability of hospital beds? Answer: Because the medical community knew if hospitals were overrun, people would die in far greater numbers than those already dead.

So, if you're following along:

SD was to keep hospitalizations at a manageable level (and it worked).
Managing the number of people in the hospital was about maintaining level of care.
Level of care meant, hopefully, fewer deaths.

So, SD = saving lives.


Except all of those lives now at much higher risk of real health threats by being impoverished.

I guess those lives don't matter. /Sarcasm
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MisterShipWreck
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8:46a, 4/27/20
I think there have been a lot more people with it that were never counted. A few weeks ago, I've heard from doctors that the count was way higher. Many people were never given tests in the beginning - but told they likely had it and were sent back home.

I know someone who has it but tested negative. Before the results came back, the doctor told that person that even if the test came back negative, the doctor was sure that the person had it, based on the chest xray and symptoms. It seems that the test is only 70% accurate or so.
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cavscout96
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In reply to MisterShipWreck • 11:04a, 4/27/20
AG
MisterShipWreck said:
I think there have been a lot more people with it that were never counted. A few weeks ago, I've heard from doctors that the count was way higher. Many people were never given tests in the beginning - but told they likely had it and were sent back home.

I know someone who has it but tested negative. Before the results came back, the doctor told that person that even if the test came back negative, the doctor was sure that the person had it, based on the chest xray and symptoms. It seems that the test is only 70% accurate or so.
I think you will find that A LOT of folks have already had this in JAN/FEB and did not realize it. I know at least one medical professional who has tested positive for the antibodies with a case likely in Jan.
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trouble
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11:16a, 4/27/20
AG
No new cases today. No new deaths.
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MisterShipWreck
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In reply to cavscout96 • 11:28a, 4/27/20
cavscout96 said:
MisterShipWreck said:
I think there have been a lot more people with it that were never counted. A few weeks ago, I've heard from doctors that the count was way higher. Many people were never given tests in the beginning - but told they likely had it and were sent back home.

I know someone who has it but tested negative. Before the results came back, the doctor told that person that even if the test came back negative, the doctor was sure that the person had it, based on the chest xray and symptoms. It seems that the test is only 70% accurate or so.
I think you will find that A LOT of folks have already had this in JAN/FEB and did not realize it. I know at least one medical professional who has tested positive for the antibodies with a case likely in Jan.
I understand that - but that is not what I am referring too. Yes, that is a TON of people. I am talking about just people since all of this stuff started in March and end of March up until a couple of weeks ago.
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cavscout96
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In reply to MisterShipWreck • 12:16p, 4/27/20
AG
MisterShipWreck said:
cavscout96 said:
MisterShipWreck said:
I think there have been a lot more people with it that were never counted. A few weeks ago, I've heard from doctors that the count was way higher. Many people were never given tests in the beginning - but told they likely had it and were sent back home.

I know someone who has it but tested negative. Before the results came back, the doctor told that person that even if the test came back negative, the doctor was sure that the person had it, based on the chest xray and symptoms. It seems that the test is only 70% accurate or so.
I think you will find that A LOT of folks have already had this in JAN/FEB and did not realize it. I know at least one medical professional who has tested positive for the antibodies with a case likely in Jan.
I understand that - but that is not what I am referring too. Yes, that is a TON of people. I am talking about just people since all of this stuff started in March and end of March up until a couple of weeks ago.
got it
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MiMi
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In reply to trouble • 1:27p, 4/27/20
S
No new cases but this is from only 53 tests reported since yesterday. Given the 30% false negative rate, the number of true positive cases may be higher. Even still, it's great to see that we may be on the other side of this and can hopefully start to reopen a bit.
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gunan01
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In reply to MiMi • 1:51p, 4/27/20
AG
Our rate of positive tests is 5.4% of all tests done in the county. So zero cases out of 53 test is really good still. We have had several days in the last week of zero new cases.

I don't think our policy should be the same as a county/state with a lot more cases. I would support limited re-opening at this point.
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Carnwellag2
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In reply to gunan01 • 2:51p, 4/27/20
gunan01 said:
Our rate of positive tests is 5.4% of all tests done in the county. So zero cases out of 53 test is really good still. We have had several days in the last week of zero new cases.

I don't think our policy should be the same as a county/state with a lot more cases. I would support limited re-opening at this point.
and even if you didn't support in a reopening, you would HAVE to participate.

Participation trophies caused all of this
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AggieBarstool
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In reply to KidDoc • 6:57p, 4/27/20
KidDoc said:
Why in the hell is Lick Creek closed. The chance of getting exposed there is nil. Stupid.
Because people are stupid and don't know how to maintain social distancing, either when around others or they go to the park in large groups themselves.

Same with grocery stores. Families treat it like a *******ed outing.
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Rapier108
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In reply to AggieBarstool • 7:07p, 4/27/20
AggieBarstool said:
KidDoc said:
Why in the hell is Lick Creek closed. The chance of getting exposed there is nil. Stupid.
Because people are stupid and don't know how to maintain social distancing, either when around others or they go to the park in large groups themselves.

Same with grocery stores. Families treat it like a *******ed outing.
Okay Karen.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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nthomas99
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In reply to AggieBarstool • 7:15p, 4/27/20
AG
And yet magically, hospitalizations decline and the world isn't ending.
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Rapier108
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11:26a, 4/28/20
6 new cases, no new deaths or change to hospitalizations.

Of course they won't tell us if those 6 cases are due to a testing backlog clearing or cluster related.

I can hear the Karens already calling for everything to be shut down again.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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