B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

795,504 Views | 5473 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by trouble
Rapier108
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1 new case, no deaths.

Number in the hospital up to 11. Since that number is still fairly high, I'm wondering if there could be another, albeit smaller, cluster at another nursing home/retirement community. Too bad they won't give us the ages of those in the hospital.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Brazos-County-reports-one-new-case-of-COVID-19--569769611.html
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Bucketrunner
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I don't understand how giving the ages would be violating any law.
Rapier108
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Bucketrunner said:

I don't understand how giving the ages would be violating any law.
It wouldn't.

There is a ton of data they could provide, which other counties in Texas put out, but they just want to keep it secret for whatever reason.

They always say "Although your interest during this extraordinary time is understandable, the Brazos County Health District (BCHD) can not release any other information about positive COVID-19 cases or deaths that are not already included in our daily updates." We all know it is BS, but our local media won't call them out on it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
88planoAg
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Is it to not blame or focus on students, I wonder?
Rapier108
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88planoAg said:

Is it to not blame or focus on students, I wonder?
I'd say no, because one thing they do tell us is age breakdowns of cases and people in their 20s still make up the single largest group of cases, and if we throw in people 15-19, it is almost 1/4 of all cases. We can safely assume many if not most in those groups are students.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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Looks like Washington County has an infected nursing home. I was wondering if they did because their number of cases were higher than similar counties in the area.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Washington-County-Nearly-half-of-all-cases-linked-to-one-facility-569771051.html

Of course they won't say which one, but I'm sure the locals already know.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
PS3D
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cavscout96 said:

Every time I hear "new normal" or culture shift, etc., etc., I want to vomit.

I'm so tired of all the Chicken Little BS.


Absolutely. There's another forum I visit that's already believing most movie theaters will never reopen.
cavscout96
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AG
Rapier108 said:

Bucketrunner said:

I don't understand how giving the ages would be violating any law.
It wouldn't.

There is a ton of data they could provide, which other counties in Texas put out, but they just want to keep it secret for whatever reason.

They always say "Although your interest during this extraordinary time is understandable, the Brazos County Health District (BCHD) can not release any other information about positive COVID-19 cases or deaths that are not already included in our daily updates." We all know it is BS, but our local media won't call them out on it.



Time for a FOIA request?
benchmark
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Rapier108 said:

Bucketrunner said:

I don't understand how giving the ages would be violating any law.
It wouldn't.

There is a ton of data they could provide, which other counties in Texas put out, but they just want to keep it secret for whatever reason.

They always say "Although your interest during this extraordinary time is understandable, the Brazos County Health District (BCHD) can not release any other information about positive COVID-19 cases or deaths that are not already included in our daily updates." We all know it is BS, but our local media won't call them out on it.
Okay, I'll say it. They don't want the public to know the full context of 'community spread' cases. An informed public might question their policies. Better to maintain a "fear of the unknown".atmosphere to control public behavior.
nthomas99
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benchmark said:

Rapier108 said:

Bucketrunner said:

I don't understand how giving the ages would be violating any law.
It wouldn't.

There is a ton of data they could provide, which other counties in Texas put out, but they just want to keep it secret for whatever reason.

They always say "Although your interest during this extraordinary time is understandable, the Brazos County Health District (BCHD) can not release any other information about positive COVID-19 cases or deaths that are not already included in our daily updates." We all know it is BS, but our local media won't call them out on it.
Okay, I'll say it. They don't want the public to know the full context of 'community spread' cases. An informed public might question their policies. Better to maintain a "fear of the unknown".atmosphere to control public behavior.

Imagine a world where anonymized data was by law opened sourced and community leaders had to actually make a scientific case with pre-defined metrics to even have a chance to violate our constitutional rights. Wouldn't that be great?

Nah, I'm probably just a monster that cares nothing for anyone but myself talking about all this liberty nonsense during such an "unprecedented time."
benchmark
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nthomas99 said:

Imagine a world where anonymized data was by law opened sourced and community leaders had to actually make a scientific case with pre-defined metrics to even have a chance to violate our constitutional rights. Wouldn't that be great?
All I know .... my antennas vibrate every time someone seems nontransparent
lockett93
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New cases last seven days shows the least new cases since March 28. I wish Brazos County would release how many of the most recent cases are still coming from known traces of the clusters they've identified vs no known infection source. They used to have 3 categories, unknown (community), contact with known case, and travel related.


Date total Last 7 days
19 170 30
18 169 35
17 164 48
16 158 44
15 151 43
14 149 52
13 143 49
12 140 46
11 134 59
10 116 44
9 114 46
8 108 45
7 97 44
6 94 48
5 94 50
4 75 35
3 72 41
2 68 40
1 63 42
31 53 37
30 46 34
29 44 32
28 40 30
27 31 25
26 28 24
25 21
24 16
23 12
22 12
21 10
20 6
19 4
gigem92
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Here is today's update. No new cases and no new deaths

As of 4.20.20, there have been no additional positive cases of COVID-19 reported to the Brazos County Health District. The total number of positive cases in Brazos County remains at 170.

Although your interest during this extraordinary time is understandable, the Brazos County Health District (BCHD) can not release any other information about positive COVID-19 cases or deaths that are not already included in our daily updates or press releases.

Positive COVID-19 Cases in Brazos County
Total number of cases: 170
Total number recovered*: 57
Active cases**: 97
Number of current hospitalizations: 11
Daily number discharged from hospital: 0
Total number of deaths: 16
Total number of COVID-19 tests performed: 2,853
*Recovered is defined as someone who has been fever-free for 72 hours without fever-reducing medications, and it has been 7 days after onset of symptoms.
**Active cases are those that have not met the definition of being recovered.
To find out more information, visit our dashboard.
http://brazoshealth.org//de/files/inline-files/4.20.20.pdf
Our next press conference is scheduled for Monday, April 20 at 4:30 pm and can be viewed on Facebook live /BrazosCountyHealthDistrict or live streaming on local TV and radio stations.
isitjustme
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After 5 full weeks of case reporting:

Week Ending Avg Daily Cases
3/23/2020 1.7
3/30/2020 4.9
4/6/2020 6.9
4/13/2020 7.0
4/20/2020 3.9

So have we peaked? I would think so, a week ago. I'll also say that if we opened up everything with no distancing, then the following weeks' numbers would grow, probably by quite a bit. How much is acceptable? I'm ready to find out, but I think we should keep our distancing for a while.

Also, of the 16 Covid-19-related deaths (which implies a 9.4% overall mortality rate), 15 have been in patients over age 70 and many with underlying conditions and at least 11 from the one assisted living facility. That equates to 15/41 cases, or a sadly high 36.6% mortality rate. The other person to die was in his 60s.

The Covid-19-related mortality rate for those under 60 in Brazos County is 0%, or 0 out of 113 cases.

Do with this info what you want.

Carnwellag2
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looks like we have met the declining 14 days.

Participation trophies caused all of this
Tailgate88
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The Health Data model was significantly revised last week to move the peak in Texas from April 30th to April 19th.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

trouble
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We can open things and still have distancing. They aren't mutually exclusive.
Rapier108
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3 new cases

No deaths and no change in the number in the hospital.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/4.21.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
isitjustme
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Rapier108 said:

3 new cases

No deaths and no change in the number in the hospital.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/4.21.20.pdf

Also, now reporting cases per zip code, not ranges. CS zip codes-101; Bryan is codes-72. Not too unbalanced considering the assisted living facility cluster and where most students live, but still nice to know.
75AG
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trouble said:

We can open things and still have distancing. They aren't mutually exclusive.
We can, but will people actually "social distance"? Hair salons, barber shops, restaurants? I'm not certain how that will work.
trouble
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We were doing it in restaurants before the shelter in place. We went to Rx the Sunday before it started and they were seating people with an empty table in between.

Salons and such are going to be more difficult but with masks it can be done. It should be up to the barber/stylist and their client if they want to take on the risk.
75AG
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trouble said:

We were doing it in restaurants before the shelter in place. We went to Rx the Sunday before it started and they were seating people with an empty table in between.

Salons and such are going to be more difficult but with masks it can be done. It should be up to the barber/stylist and their client if they want to take on the risk.
I guess ultimately we all have to assess the risk, and make decisions based upon the best information available. Our DC offices will not re-open until mid-May, at the earliest. Business travel is prohibited until further notice. But they've been hit harder than us... so far.
trouble
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DC is much different than Brazos county though. That's been the problem throughout this. We keep hearing that we don't want to turn into another New York while ignoring the things that make us nothing like New York.

We aren't walking on crowded sidewalks all day, we don't take public transit to go most places. We don't work in high rises full of other people.

If we (and most places around the country) had real leadership, decisions could have been made that didn't decimate local economies.
cavscout96
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trouble said:

DC is much different than Brazos county though. That's been the problem throughout this. We keep hearing that we don't want to turn into another New York while ignoring the things that make us nothing like New York.

We aren't walking on crowded sidewalks all day, we don't take public transit to go most places. We don't work in high rises full of other people.

If we (and most places around the country) had real leadership, decisions could have been made that didn't decimate local economies.
amen
cavscout96
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agrab86 said:

Rapier108 said:

3 new cases

No deaths and no change in the number in the hospital.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/4.21.20.pdf

Also, now reporting cases per zip code, not ranges. CS zip codes-101; Bryan is codes-72. Not too unbalanced considering the assisted living facility cluster and where most students live, but still nice to know.
77845 is ~200 sq miles.

Not especially helpful.
75AG
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trouble said:

DC is much different than Brazos county though. That's been the problem throughout this. We keep hearing that we don't want to turn into another New York while ignoring the things that make us nothing like New York.

We aren't walking on crowded sidewalks all day, we don't take public transit to go most places. We don't work in high rises full of other people.

If we (and most places around the country) had real leadership, decisions could have been made that didn't decimate local economies.
Good points. We are not those cities.
Rapier108
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agrab86 said:

Rapier108 said:

3 new cases

No deaths and no change in the number in the hospital.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/4.21.20.pdf

Also, now reporting cases per zip code, not ranges. CS zip codes-101; Bryan is codes-72. Not too unbalanced considering the assisted living facility cluster and where most students live, but still nice to know.
And I'd bet many of the Bryan cases are connected to Sanderson Farms, either directly or people bringing it home to their families. They've never said how many of the cases came from there, but if is anything like what's happened at other processing facilities, it wasn't just a few.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nthomas99
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75AG said:

trouble said:

DC is much different than Brazos county though. That's been the problem throughout this. We keep hearing that we don't want to turn into another New York while ignoring the things that make us nothing like New York.

We aren't walking on crowded sidewalks all day, we don't take public transit to go most places. We don't work in high rises full of other people.

If we (and most places around the country) had real leadership, decisions could have been made that didn't decimate local economies.
Good points. But until there is a vaccine (and herd immunity) I'm concerned with going back into restaurants, bars, to sporting events, etc., even with social distancing. But everyone will have to make their own decision once things are opened back up.

Agreed, and I think there will generally be a broad spectrum of individuals' engagement in "normalish" activities for quite some time. But just leave it the hands of the people. The only role the government should be playing in this whole thing is making efforts that *local* hospitalizations in the various regions don't approach levels which will result in deaths caused by lack of capacity (Mayor Nelson surprisingly said as much in a chamber of commerce interview yesterday, even though I may disagree with him on what that point is). We are waaaayyyy faaaaaarrrrrrr aaawwwaaaayyy from this point in the Brazos county.
75AG
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nthomas99 said:

75AG said:

trouble said:

DC is much different than Brazos county though. That's been the problem throughout this. We keep hearing that we don't want to turn into another New York while ignoring the things that make us nothing like New York.

We aren't walking on crowded sidewalks all day, we don't take public transit to go most places. We don't work in high rises full of other people.

If we (and most places around the country) had real leadership, decisions could have been made that didn't decimate local economies.
Good points. But until there is a vaccine (and herd immunity) I'm concerned with going back into restaurants, bars, to sporting events, etc., even with social distancing. But everyone will have to make their own decision once things are opened back up.

Agreed, and I think there will generally be a broad spectrum of individuals' engagement in "normalish" activities for quite some time. But just leave it the hands of the people. The only role the government should be playing in this whole thing is making efforts that *local* hospitalizations in the various regions don't approach levels which will result in deaths caused by lack of capacity (Mayor Nelson surprisingly said as much in a chamber of commerce interview yesterday, even though I may disagree with him on what that point is). We are waaaayyyy faaaaaarrrrrrr aaawwwaaaayyy from this point in the Brazos county.
And testing. Government is key to statewide testing. So far, we're around 200,000 tests in Texas. We need more accurate testing. Only then will we know how far this has spread.
gigem92
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4 new cases today.

0 new deaths

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/4.22.20.pdf
Rapier108
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Yep, nursing home in Washington County has roughly half the country's cases.

Quote:

BRENHAM, Tex. (KBTX) - A state senator wants public health officials to become more involved in a cluster of COVID-19 cases inside a Washington County nursing home, KBTX has confirmed.

Nearly half of the county's 70 cases are at the Brenham Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, according to Senator Lois Kolkhorst.

Six of the county's seven deaths were residents at the facility, according to her office. At least 18 other residents have tested positive and four have been hospitalized.
https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/State-senator-wants-more-action-following-multiple-COVID-19-deaths-at-Brenham-nursing-home-569869091.html
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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Washington County also hasn't enacted any of the stay at home orders at the county level and I don;t suspect anything will be forthcoming after 30 April.
Inca
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Yes, Washington County has done exactly nothing . I guess dine in restaurants have been closed - that is it. Shops have been open the entire time.
cavscout96
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yes, and adjusting for the large number of cases and deaths at the retirement home, they are no worse for it.
Inca
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Excluding unfavorable data generally yields "better results."
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