B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

833,861 Views | 5667 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by FlyRod
scd88
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AG
I think we'll see the "student spike" for another 10 days or so and then see the numbers drop. If A&M can weather this push without freaking out, they will be in good shape.
lockett93
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AG
Spreadsheet updated

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

Full disclosure I massaged the percentages to make more sense. They don't give enough granularity on the percentages and don't even give a number for the 90's category. I think it's obvious the 90+ should be around 30 people and the "remaining" percentage would have dropped it to 27 so I gave a little more there and took away from some other categories. Minor 1-2 person change in an age group. That will even itself out over time.

Without massaging a little the number jumped from 30 to 36 to 21 back to 30.
cavscout96
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AG
77% of today's new cases 15-30 age group. 29/43 in 77840
isitjustme
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AG
cavscout96 said:

77% of today's new cases 15-30 age group. 29/43 in 77840
Students started getting back about 2 weeks ago. So for cases that have been reported over the last 9 days, or starting 8/17, the 15-30 y.o. age group has accounted for 154 of the 248 newly reported cases, or 62.1%. Zip codes 77840/5 have accounted for 162 of those new cases, or 65.3%.

We all knew this was coming. There's no reason to think that the harsh covid complications % for this age group won't remain low, so hospital facilities shouldn't be overwhelmed. This should just be part of the continued march back towards normalcy.
Bunk Moreland
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honestly if we had 250 cases a day locally in a week or 2 but 75% or higher were aged 5-29 then it's all good.
cavscout96
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AG
agrab86 said:

cavscout96 said:

77% of today's new cases 15-30 age group. 29/43 in 77840
Students started getting back about 2 weeks ago. So for cases that have been reported over the last 9 days, or starting 8/17, the 15-30 y.o. age group has accounted for 154 of the 248 newly reported cases, or 62.1%. Zip codes 77840/5 have accounted for 162 of those new cases, or 65.3%.

We all knew this was coming. There's no reason to think that the harsh covid complications % for this age group won't remain low, so hospital facilities shouldn't be overwhelmed. This should just be part of the continued march back towards normalcy.
preach
cavscout96
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yep
ToxicAG
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Texas A&M COVID dashboard has been updated.

https://www.tamu.edu/coronavirus/dashboard/


KidDoc
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AG
ToxicAG said:

Texas A&M COVID dashboard has been updated.

https://www.tamu.edu/coronavirus/dashboard/



Nice to see they are not going to report active cases- just total.

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Belton Ag
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KidDoc said:

ToxicAG said:

Texas A&M COVID dashboard has been updated.

https://www.tamu.edu/coronavirus/dashboard/



Nice to see they are not going to report active cases- just total.


Yeah that first graph is pretty misleading. It says daily new cases, but looks to be total cases added onto daily.
ToxicAG
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KidDoc said:

ToxicAG said:

Texas A&M COVID dashboard has been updated.

https://www.tamu.edu/coronavirus/dashboard/



Nice to see they are not going to report active cases- just total.


Not surprised. Irregardless, those are some pretty big numbers that do not appear in the county reports (at last not yet).
ToxicAG
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Belton Ag said:

KidDoc said:

ToxicAG said:

Texas A&M COVID dashboard has been updated.

https://www.tamu.edu/coronavirus/dashboard/



Nice to see they are not going to report active cases- just total.


Yeah that first graph is pretty misleading. It says daily new cases, but looks to be total cases added onto daily.
I don't think so, since the numbers go down between Aug 14-15 and the faculty positives are only on one day. These are new daily totals.
AGGODDESS
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AG
nm
scd88
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AG
The only ones that would appear in the county numbers are the ones from students who test in town, right? Like at Brazos Valley Urgent Care, for example.
MiMi
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S
Quote:

I don't think so, since the numbers go down between Aug 14-15 and the faculty positives are only on one day. These are new daily totals.
Agreed. Also, these are only self-reported positives. I'm wondering how many are not reporting their positive test to TAMU?

However, we need to not focus solely on the number of positive test results - hospitalization rate can tell us much more.
cavscout96
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AG
also,

does thins include Galveston, technically part of "main campus?"
ToxicAG
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cavscout96 said:

also,

does thins include Galveston, technically part of "main campus?"
From the email from the Provost, this is just the main A&M campus.
cavscout96
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MiMi said:

Quote:

I don't think so, since the numbers go down between Aug 14-15 and the faculty positives are only on one day. These are new daily totals.
Agreed. Also, these are only self-reported positives. I'm wondering how many are not reporting their positive test to TAMU?

However, we need to not focus solely on the number of positive test results - hospitalization rate can tell us much more.
do this not include the random testing as well?
cavscout96
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AG
ToxicAG said:

cavscout96 said:

also,

does thins include Galveston, technically part of "main campus?"
From the email from the Provost, this is just the main A&M campus.
Galveston IS "main campus."

however, I went back and re-read the website and it does state: "The COVID-19 cases and testing reported on the Bryan-College Station campus..."
ToxicAG
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cavscout96 said:

MiMi said:

Quote:

I don't think so, since the numbers go down between Aug 14-15 and the faculty positives are only on one day. These are new daily totals.
Agreed. Also, these are only self-reported positives. I'm wondering how many are not reporting their positive test to TAMU?

However, we need to not focus solely on the number of positive test results - hospitalization rate can tell us much more.
do this not include the random testing as well?
Good question and don't know. Random testing I believe started on Friday, so there may have been enough time to get the tests turned around. These numbers are in inline with other universities including University of Alabama which had over 500 positive tests last week.
histag10
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AG
cavscout96 said:

ToxicAG said:

cavscout96 said:

also,

does thins include Galveston, technically part of "main campus?"
From the email from the Provost, this is just the main A&M campus.
Galveston IS "main campus."

however, I went back and re-read the website and it does state: "The COVID-19 cases and testing reported on the Bryan-College Station campus..."


Main campus also includes the law school (all part 02 of the system)
ToxicAG
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cavscout96 said:

ToxicAG said:

cavscout96 said:

also,

does thins include Galveston, technically part of "main campus?"
From the email from the Provost, this is just the main A&M campus.
Galveston IS "main campus."

however, I went back and re-read the website and it does state: "The COVID-19 cases and testing reported on the Bryan-College Station campus..."
I figured that A&M would go out of their way to make sure that some cases came from other locations just to make the numbers look better.
Belton Ag
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AG
So if that's the case, then Brazos County's numbers are pretty much bunk and can't be looked at. There's really no point in updating it then since it doesn't include A&M's numbers (or maybe it includes some, or is updated sporadically).
ToxicAG
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Belton Ag said:

So if that's the case, then Brazos County's numbers are pretty much bunk and can't be looked at. There's really no point in updating it then since it doesn't include A&M's numbers (or maybe it includes some, or is updated sporadically).
That would be a good question for our local media to ask, oh wait...
FlyRod
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I think Belton Ag clarified it, but just days ago I was led to believe BCHD was including TAMU numbers.

What a data mess.

Edit: now hearing TAMU numbers "might" be included starting tomorrow. ARGHHHHH
aggielawyer00
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AG
So there will be a huge jump in numbers, with no clarification as what comes from TAMU. Which will lead to panic and fear...

...all according to plan?
FlyRod
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I'm going for grotesque incompetence underway here, vs conspiracy!
Rapier108
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[WE HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT WE WILL NOT TOLERATE NAME CALLING ON THIS FORUM AND IT DOES NOT MATTER IF IT IS DIRECTED AT ONE PERSON OR A GROUP OF PEOPLE THAT A POSTER DOES NOT AGREE WITH. Any post that has to be edited for being disrespectful will get a three day minimum-Staff]
SpringAg92
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Just heard on the national news about the outbreak on campus - Over 400 cases
FlyRod
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I am hearing 358 of these cases in last two weeks. Not an outbreak I suppose...which to me connotes the beginning of a pandemic (so we're already in it).

But an added thought: we just took in a bunch of Galveston evacuees and the island had a pretty high rate IIRC. Do we know if these cases will be counted with the total? Maybe not since they don't live here?
MBAR
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You guys can say what you want, but I am 99% sure that if the cases stay above 100 per day we're going to go online only.

I am a bit taken aback by how quickly we got to that point and by a positive rate of 17% last week. That's really bad. It shows uncontrolled growth within the student population and that's just going to get worse as the weeks go by. Very unlikely this is where it peaks.

On a related note, I taught my first in person lab of the semester today. Campus seemed very empty - more like the summer rather than early fall semester - and I only had 3 people show up in person. The others were on Zoom.
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

I'm going for grotesque incompetence underway here, vs conspiracy!


CONCUR!
Is Not a Turtle
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I tend to agree but I remain hopeful that hospital capacity stays down and they learn to distance.
trouble
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Yeah, they didn't get tamu numbers until today.

No idea how they'll decide to include them. It would be nice if they keep them separate but we'll see.
saltsman
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Belton Ag said:

KidDoc said:

ToxicAG said:

Texas A&M COVID dashboard has been updated.

https://www.tamu.edu/coronavirus/dashboard/



Nice to see they are not going to report active cases- just total.


Yeah that first graph is pretty misleading. It says daily new cases, but looks to be total cases added onto daily.
I pretty sure these are not total cases added onto each other daily.

If you look at faculty/staff, for example, you can see that it is not cumulative. Some days report new F/S cases (Aug 12, 17, 21), where as the other days do not.

Also, if you look at the table of number of cumulative positive cases for the week of Aug 16 it shows 358. If you add up the numbers shown for each of the days in that week from the graph, it works out.

I believe this graph is what is says it is... Daily new cases.

Does anyone know what organization is performing the TAMU tests. Perhaps the lab is not sending the data to the county health district? Or perhaps the lab is reporting the students permeant address rather than their school address...
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