B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

609,233 Views | 4442 Replies | Last: 17 hrs ago by MiMi
nthomas99
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nwspmp said:

nought said:

The posts above got me thinking about numbers. The news reports about various places bringing in refrigerated trucks made me go hmmmmm.

According to the CDC, for 2018, there were 202,205 deaths in Texas. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

That's an average of 553.5 deaths a day.

Yesterday we had a "state-record high" COVID-19-related deaths of 129: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/07/16/texas-reports-highest-death-toll-scoronavirus-pandemic/

You can draw your own conclusions about the reported inability of morgues to keep up with the "overwhelming" number of COVID-19 deaths.




Well, people haven't stopped dying of other things too. If we are generous, an extra 20% of deaths could easily warrant an expansion of storage needed. I worked in a funeral home once. They had on site cold storage for four bodies. 20% expansion would need external storage.

Here's a CDC report I saw last week that tries to model the excess deaths from COVID-19. Haven't really reviewed the methodology, but it seems to be trying to answer the number of excess deaths question rationally. You can filter by state to see numbers for Texas.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

By those graphs, we are probably reaching the 20% in state now. Of course, we'll see what happens post pandemic (i.e., will we drop below the expected rate for a while? I don't know).

Oh, and look at the 2017/2018 flu season, which was last time we went statistically above the norm.
lockett93
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nthomas99 said:

If I'm counting right, here are our weekly tests performed for the last 4 weeks:


I hope you didn't actually count. My spreadsheet has that data on a rolling 7 day figure. ;-)
nthomas99
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lockett93 said:

nthomas99 said:

If I'm counting right, here are our weekly tests performed for the last 4 weeks:


I hope you didn't actually count. My spreadsheet has that data on a rolling 7 day figure. ;-)
Nope, between your spreadsheet, mine, and others, plenty to pull data from.

I'm just curious why Brazos county is deviated so much from the state growth in daily testing.
Rapier108
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24 New Cases
1 New Death (Male in his 60s who was hospitalized)
0 New Tests (Shocking...)
29 In the Hospital (Occupancy rates still about the same)

77801 +5
77802 +1
77803 +5
77807 +0
77808 +0
77840 +2
77845 +10
77881 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.19.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Belton Ag
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I'm assuming that in a day or two they'll report like a thousand or more new tests.
isitjustme
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Brazos county active case rate now 0.39% of population.
Rapier108
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Belton Ag said:

I'm assuming that in a day or two they'll report like a thousand or more new tests.
You'd think, but test numbers haven't made sense in a while, and I doubt anyone has faith in the BCHD giving out good information.

There is no way so few tests are being done in Brazos County when Texas continues to increase the number of tests it is conducting statewide.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
FlyRod
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Here's one anecdote: friend went to Urgent Care at the Physician's Center last week. Counted over 80 people in line just to get COVID tests (don't get me started on the lack of social distancing at that place). There is definitely more testing going on around here.
trouble
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4 discharges

82 recovered

29 Brazos county patients, 73 regional

Total bed occupancy: 71%
Total ICU occupancy: 75%

Regional stats
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 488
Available Hospital Beds - 131
Available ICU Beds - 5
Available Ventilators - 34
Belton Ag
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Rapier108 said:

Belton Ag said:

I'm assuming that in a day or two they'll report like a thousand or more new tests.
You'd think, but test numbers haven't made sense in a while, and I doubt anyone has faith in the BCHD giving out good information.

There is no way so few tests are being done in Brazos County when Texas continues to increase the number of tests it is conducting statewide.
And when TAMU starts their free testing, I wonder if those tests will be included.

I'm also expecting a huge spike in positives once that begins as well.
Rapier108
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Belton Ag said:

Rapier108 said:

Belton Ag said:

I'm assuming that in a day or two they'll report like a thousand or more new tests.
You'd think, but test numbers haven't made sense in a while, and I doubt anyone has faith in the BCHD giving out good information.

There is no way so few tests are being done in Brazos County when Texas continues to increase the number of tests it is conducting statewide.
And when TAMU starts their free testing, I wonder if those tests will be included.

I'm also expecting a huge spike in positives once that begins as well.
Same here. Hopefully they'll at least tell us how many cases from the TAMU tests, and how many are asymptomatic.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
GiveEmHellBill
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Rapier108 said:

24 New Cases
1 New Death (Male in his 60s who was hospitalized)
0 New Tests (Shocking...)
29 In the Hospital (Occupancy rates still about the same)


So, 24 new cases on 0 new tests?

We have long past the point of absurdity in this world.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
91_Aggie
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GiveEmHellBill said:

Rapier108 said:

24 New Cases
1 New Death (Male in his 60s who was hospitalized)
0 New Tests (Shocking...)
29 In the Hospital (Occupancy rates still about the same)


So, 24 new cases on 0 new tests?

We have long past the point of absurdity in this world.
tests done day or days before, coming back positive... this is not a difficult logical puzzle.
Slocum on a mobile
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91_Aggie said:

GiveEmHellBill said:

Rapier108 said:

24 New Cases
1 New Death (Male in his 60s who was hospitalized)
0 New Tests (Shocking...)
29 In the Hospital (Occupancy rates still about the same)


So, 24 new cases on 0 new tests?

We have long past the point of absurdity in this world.
tests done day or days before, coming back positive... this is not a difficult logical puzzle.


Numbers are hard.
jeffk
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If we were going to see a post-July 4th weekend bump in cases, it'd be this week, yeah?
Rapier108
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jeffk said:

If we were going to see a post-July 4th weekend bump in cases, it'd be this week, yeah?
Perhaps if for some reason it is really lagging (or test results are really lagging), but we should have seen evidence of it last week, and we didn't.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
EBrazosAg
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That would have been last week. 5-10 days post exposure. Most 3-7
GiveEmHellBill
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91_Aggie said:

GiveEmHellBill said:

Rapier108 said:

24 New Cases
1 New Death (Male in his 60s who was hospitalized)
0 New Tests (Shocking...)
29 In the Hospital (Occupancy rates still about the same)


So, 24 new cases on 0 new tests?

We have long past the point of absurdity in this world.
tests done day or days before, coming back positive... this is not a difficult logical puzzle.

Note the smiley face. Just trying to have some fun because all this sucks right now.
MiMi
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S
But the big unknown about if or when we might see a bump in cases as a result of the 4th depends on when the tests are reported by the BCHD. We still don't know the connection between reported tests and reported positive cases, since test results can take days to get back and then BCHD has to get around to reporting them in their daily ugly graphic.
jeffk
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That makes sense. Of course, not knowing anything about testing backlogs complicates things a bit.
EBrazosAg
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No doubt. It would be spread out. Some test one day. Some 3. Some 5 or more.
Rapier108
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10 New Cases
443 New Tests
2 New Deaths
Hospital Occupancy Dropped 5%, ICU stayed the same.

77801 +0
77802 +0
77803 +3
77807 +0
77808 +1
77840 +4
77845 +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.20.20.pdf

We'll see if tomorrow has the often Tuesday catch up spike.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
scd88
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Damn good weekend. Let's how we do with Monday's numbers tomorrow.
FlyRod
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Deaths were two men in their 40s.
cavscout96
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This would be a significant outlier. Would like to know comorbidity, but likely will not be released.
Rapier108
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cavscout96 said:

This would be a significant outlier. Would like to know comorbidity, but likely will not be released.
Won't matter because the panic crowd will jump all over it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
FlyRod
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Outlier to be sure, but would comport with some national info about younger people getting more sick and dying in this latest wave (would like to see actual over time increase/decrease in mortality by age data to date if said exists.).
dubi
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cavscout96 said:

This would be a significant outlier. Would like to know comorbidity, but likely will not be released.
400 lbs
diabetic
smoker
hypertension
RGRAg1/75
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dubi said:

cavscout96 said:

This would be a significant outlier. Would like to know comorbidity, but likely will not be released.
400 lbs
diabetic
smoker
hypertension


Geez
jeffk
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Do one or both of the two that died fit those descriptors?
trouble
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4 discharges

46 recovered

active cases now under 900

27 Brazos County patients, 74 regional

Brazos County
Total Bed Occupancy: 66%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 71%

Regional
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 498
Available Hospital Beds - 160
Available ICU Beds - 6
Available Ventilators - 35
trouble
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I'm assuming the hospitalized one
dubi
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jeffk said:

Do one or both of the two that died fit those descriptors?
Sarcasm alert.
jeffk
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sorry
 
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