B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

837,400 Views | 5673 Replies | Last: 17 hrs ago by Nosmo
isitjustme
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dubi said:

cavscout96 said:

This would be a significant outlier. Would like to know comorbidity, but likely will not be released.
400 lbs
diabetic
smoker
hypertension

Yes, these comorbities would not be good to have if you get covid. Are you saying the 2 men in their 40s who died had all of these, or are you just listing the possible comorbidities and don't know if either had any of them?

Either way, the under-50 mortality barrier has now been broken locally and the press and others will use these as prime examples of the need to shut down again, or at least take more drastic measures.
Rapier108
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FlyRod said:

Outlier to be sure, but would comport with some national info about younger people getting more sick and dying in this latest wave (would like to see actual over time increase/decrease in mortality by age data to date if said exists.).
We're still in the first wave, but in the second half of it, more of the cases are younger so it would be expected to see more deaths in that age range. For whatever reason, this thing went like a laser guided bomb at old people first. Probably much of that had to do with large concentrations of seniors in nursing homes, on cruise ships, and just generally being more susceptible to picking up any kind of virus.

That said, people under 50 are not dropping dead left and right, and people under 40 are almost certain to survive it unless they have some kind of existing condition which puts them at higher risk. (Yes, there are always the rare cases where the person is perfectly healthy and dies from it; happens every year with the flu.) Even those with preexisting conditions, the majority will survive it. Even most people over 80 who get it survive so there there is no way its going to wipe out a massive number of young, health people.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
letterman72
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https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#PlaceDeath

Someone take a look at this and tell us what you think of Table 4. Table 4 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving COVID-19.
cavscout96
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dubi said:

cavscout96 said:

This would be a significant outlier. Would like to know comorbidity, but likely will not be released.
400 lbs
diabetic
smoker
hypertension

seriously or are you joking?
dubi
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cavscout96 said:

dubi said:

cavscout96 said:

This would be a significant outlier. Would like to know comorbidity, but likely will not be released.
400 lbs
diabetic
smoker
hypertension

seriously or are you joking?
Joking.

But to die at that age there is a HUGE likelihood of co-morbid conditions.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q



Lowest 7 day total since June 17
FlyRod
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35 cases today.
MiMi
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S
Quote:

35 cases today.
And 527 new tests and 0 deaths

scd88
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Nice!!
Ukraine Gas Expert
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Great spreadsheet, I was looking for that information. Is there a breakdown somewhere of deaths?

I know local media hypes cases, but wanted to compare against deaths, since that is what people fear. Sorry of asked somewhere else, this is a long thread.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
trouble
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4 discharges

none added to recovered

25 Brazos Co patients, 73 regional

Brazos Co hospitals
Total Bed Occupancy: 65%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 75%

Regional stats
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 495
Available Hospital Beds - 178
Available ICU Beds - 11
Available Ventilators - 36
91_Aggie
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May have missed this in this long thread, but how are they verifying recovered?

Do they keep calling people who tested positive?
Do people have to call in when they are recovered?
Just wait two weeks and if not dead, consider them recovered?
FlyRod
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Quote:

May have missed this in this long thread, but how are they verifying recovered?


Also curious about that. I know the CDC says "72 hours without a fever," but I'd really like to know how the discharged are doing...after-effects, etc. I can't imagine hospitals don't have such data, assuming patients are following up/being followed up on.
isitjustme
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91_Aggie said:

May have missed this in this long thread, but how are they verifying recovered?

Do they keep calling people who tested positive?
Do people have to call in when they are recovered?
Just wait two weeks and if not dead, consider them recovered?
They don't follow everyone, but they follow some. From the Health Dept. Facebook (I added the part in italics from what Sullivan has said in briefings):

*Recovered is defined as someone who has been fever free for 72 hours without fever reducing medications, and it has been 10 days after onset of symptoms. This number also includes those cases that are assumed to be recovered based on the average duration of illness. (usually 30 days since the positive test if no further tests or tracking available)



Fitch
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91_Aggie said:

May have missed this in this long thread, but how are they verifying recovered?

Do they keep calling people who tested positive?
Do people have to call in when they are recovered?
Just wait two weeks and if not dead, consider them recovered?
For some populations that are small enough they may be calling to verify, but in general the state uses a formula to retire cases from "active". Fatalities are deducted from total reported cases and of the remaining balance 80% are expected to not need hospitalization and "recover" after 14 days. Of the remaining 20% estimated to require hospitalization they "recover" after 30 days.

Not a perfect formula, but there's no bandwidth to track the daily status of several ten thousand people.
cavscout96
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Fitch said:

91_Aggie said:

May have missed this in this long thread, but how are they verifying recovered?

Do they keep calling people who tested positive?
Do people have to call in when they are recovered?
Just wait two weeks and if not dead, consider them recovered?
For some populations that are small enough they may be calling to verify, but in general the state uses a formula to retire cases from "active". Fatalities are deducted from total reported cases and of the remaining balance 80% are expected to not need hospitalization and "recover" after 14 days. Of the remaining 20% estimated to require hospitalization they "recover" after 30 days.

Not a perfect formula, but there's no bandwidth to track the daily status of several ten thousand people.
well stated.
TexAg1987
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Fitch said:

91_Aggie said:

May have missed this in this long thread, but how are they verifying recovered?

Do they keep calling people who tested positive?
Do people have to call in when they are recovered?
Just wait two weeks and if not dead, consider them recovered?
For some populations that are small enough they may be calling to verify, but in general the state uses a formula to retire cases from "active". Fatalities are deducted from total reported cases and of the remaining balance 80% are expected to not need hospitalization and "recover" after 14 days. Of the remaining 20% estimated to require hospitalization they "recover" after 30 days.

Not a perfect formula, but there's no bandwidth to track the daily status of several ten thousand people.
Then how are we getting days with 0 recovered? Seems like a % of people who tested positive 14 or 30 days ago should move into recovered.

FlyRod
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Sadly no. Recovery time often takes months. Those may be a minority of cases, but they are very real.

And again, it maddens me we don't have good data on this, e.g. what % fully recover vs long term complications, and how long it takes to recover, perhaps by demographics, etc.
trouble
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Recovered is about being contagious in this case. This isn't tracking long term complications.
cavscout96
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Poor staff work. Period
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

Sadly no. Recovery time often takes months. Those may be a minority of cases, but they are very real.

And again, it maddens me we don't have good data on this, e.g. what % fully recover vs long term complications, and how long it takes to recover, perhaps by demographics, etc.


This is not representative of the common definition of "recovered."
Fitch
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My description was for how the state agencies treat the data, and which I think a few municipalities have adopted the same formula. Individual jurisdictions may track it differently, and some aren't tracking it at all.

It's very much a hodge podge, so I don't have a good answer for how B/CS is managing that.
Ratsa
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I've been cautiously optimistic watching the number of new cases fall for the last week and a half. So I decided to look at the total number of new cases for each of the last four weeks. There's been a significant decrease.

Date # New Cases
6/24 - 6/30 700
7/1 - 7/7 621
7/8 - 7/14 494
7/15 - 7/21 322


SPI-FlatsCatter 84
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trouble said:

Recovered is about being contagious in this case. This isn't tracking long term complications.


Good friend in H Town, 61? YOA, tested positive 13 freaking days ago. Just got his taste back today. Still only 75% strength

Guy walks 18-27 golf holes/day at 61 yrs and 255 lbs. He said it feels like pulling around a 75 lb napsack
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Nothing is getting fixed in D.C. until we get term limits for both the House and the Senate
cavscout96
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Although I think that's kind of how bchd is doing it but only after they were called to task
cavscout96
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Their accuracy has however been fairly suspect
Bunk Moreland
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So we're at .014% of people in the county testing positive today (I assumed 250k and we all know it's higher once the census comes out).

Sure doesn't seem like reason to even allow kids the option of distance learning. Get them back in the classrooms.
jeffk
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Always pay close attention to the context in which these studies take place. Schools in other countries aren't always great comparisons to America public schools. We're still very much in uncharted waters here.
Jinx
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Delete
trouble
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Can we move the school discussion to a different thread?

[Yes. -Staff]
EBrazosAg
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trouble said:

Can we move the school discussion to a different thread?


And the church said "AMEN"!!!
FlyRod
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80 new cases reported today.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q

80 cases, exactly the same as 1 week ago, so no change to last 7 days cases of 322

Once again the person making this graphic should be fired. Besides how ugly and unreadable it is, The hospital chart on english wasn't updated, and there isn't a number given for 90 year old %... Finally, the granularity of only .1% isn't sufficient to get accurate numbers day to day...

They should go look at Tx Med Ctr for nice graphics.
MiMi
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Quote:

80 new cases reported today.
156 reported tests, 0 deaths
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