B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

806,058 Views | 5550 Replies | Last: 17 hrs ago by trouble
trouble
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6 discharges

103 recovered

29 Brazos county patients, 70 regional

Brazos county occupancy (seems to be based on physical beds)
Total Bed Occupancy: 76%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 75%

Regional stats (based on staffed, admittable beds)
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 503
Available Hospital Beds - 125
Available ICU Beds - 3
Available Ventilators - 35
Tailgate88
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My question on all this is... how severe are the symptoms in the "Active" cases.

If someone gets contact tested, comes back positive, and is asymptomatic or has extremely mild symptoms (didn't even know they had it), is that considered an "Active" case? I'm guessing yes.
trouble
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Yes, all positives are counted as active cases.
toolshed
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agrab86 said:

Now showing 982 active cases - the Health Dept now matches my calculation. Is that a victory for accuracy as a result this thread? So, 0.41% is the current active case rate in Brazos county.



Yes, they probably watch and get info from TexAgs like Rusty and KBTX does for their news casts and Coming and Going of new businesses!
trouble
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I questioned their math on facebook yesterday and they ignored me
cavscout96
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trouble said:

I questioned their math on facebook yesterday and they ignored me
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
KidDoc
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agrab86 said:

Now showing 982 active cases - the Health Dept now matches my calculation. Is that a victory for accuracy as a result this thread? So, 0.41% is the current active case rate in Brazos county.

So I repeat a question - Why all these restrictions in Brazos county when less than 1/2 percent of the population has the covid?
And roughly 10% of the population has been tested!
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KidDoc
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Tailgate88 said:

My question on all this is... how severe are the symptoms in the "Active" cases.

If someone gets contact tested, comes back positive, and is asymptomatic or has extremely mild symptoms (didn't even know they had it), is that considered an "Active" case? I'm guessing yes.
yes for 10 days.
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Oogway
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agrab86 said:

Now showing 982 active cases - the Health Dept now matches my calculation. Is that a victory for accuracy as a result this thread? So, 0.41% is the current active case rate in Brazos county.

So I repeat a question - Why all these restrictions in Brazos county when less than 1/2 percent of the population has the covid?
We were talking a little about this at the supper table last evening. One thought was that if mask usage etc becomes more commonplace along with a few other mitigation efforts then some of the restrictions (local) might be eased as the hospitalization stats stabilize or decrease (as they appear to have done). If it looks as if things are out of control here (regardless of actuality) then the liklihood of higher numbers of students staying home and attending remotely might be greater. That is not ideal for a variety of reasons. The clock is ticking, but more residents are wearing masks and minding their spacing and so hopefully the trend in numbers hospitalized will stay lower.

I have no answers just speculation, but it has certainly been interesting to talk about around the table. The topic tonight is probably going to be the latest NCAA guidelines/statement regarding fall sports.
tb9665
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So, are we seeing the results of July 4 yet?
Bunk Moreland
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tb9665 said:

So, are we seeing the results of July 4 yet?


I know multiple people from various gatherings who were with others that tested positive over July 4 weekend have already gone to get tested and had results back. All negative. The only person who I'm pretty sure did have it actually tested negative but was sick with the same symptoms in the same household as someone who did test positive.

So somebody's test was wrong, the positive or the negative. Either way, those symptoms have already gone away (was about 3 days of fever, cough, chills) and they're back to normal
FlyRod
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https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

This is "fun." You can plug in numbers of people per event/workspace and see what your chance of encountering someone with COVID is. In Brazos County, at the lowest number they give (10), chance was 38.4%. I didn't go any higher after that. Enjoy.
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

This is "fun." You can plug in numbers of people per event/workspace and see what your chance of encountering someone with COVID is. In Brazos County, at the lowest number they give (10), chance was 38.4%. I didn't go any higher after that. Enjoy.
so, 4/10 folks have it in Brazos County? I think I'm throwing the BS flag.
FlyRod
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If I read it right it's the probability "at least 1 individual with COVID will be present at event of X size." Apologies for the interpretation.
KidDoc
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FlyRod said:

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

This is "fun." You can plug in numbers of people per event/workspace and see what your chance of encountering someone with COVID is. In Brazos County, at the lowest number they give (10), chance was 38.4%. I didn't go any higher after that. Enjoy.
That sounds like BS.
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KidDoc
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It has our risk level @ 99% with less than 1000 active cases. What the heck?!
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nought
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FlyRod said:

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

This is "fun." You can plug in numbers of people per event/workspace and see what your chance of encountering someone with COVID is. In Brazos County, at the lowest number they give (10), chance was 38.4%. I didn't go any higher after that. Enjoy.

It looks like they must be assuming roughly 4.75% of people in this county are affected.

I think this is the way to calculate this. If you want to know the chances of at least 1 out of 10 people being positive, what you really need to look at are the chances of no one being positive. Then, subtract that from one.

If 1 percent of people are positive, that means 99% are not. So, you take .99 to the power of 10, and subtract the result from 1. You might be surprised that even if only 1% of people are positive, there is a 9 and a half percent chance that a random group of 10 people will have at least one positive case!

Based on the known number of active cases, we think roughly half a percent of people are positive right now, right? So, take .995 to the power of 10, subtract the result from 1, and multiply that result by 100. There's a 4.8% chance 1 out of 10 people in a room has it.

What if the real rate is 10 times higher, so 5% instead of .5%? Take .95 to the power of 10, etc. If I'm right, there would then be a 40% chance of 1 out of 10 in a room having it.

Maybe someone who knows more maths than me can tell me if I went wrong somewhere along the way.
Tailgate88
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Bunk Moreland said:

tb9665 said:

So, are we seeing the results of July 4 yet?


I know multiple people from various gatherings who were with others that tested positive over July 4 weekend have already gone to get tested and had results back. All negative. The only person who I'm pretty sure did have it actually tested negative but was sick with the same symptoms in the same household as someone who did test positive.

So somebody's test was wrong, the positive or the negative. Either way, those symptoms have already gone away (was about 3 days of fever, cough, chills) and they're back to normal
I'm sure it was the positive test that was wrong, because those symptoms sound like the flu.
nought
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The posts above got me thinking about numbers. The news reports about various places bringing in refrigerated trucks made me go hmmmmm.

According to the CDC, for 2018, there were 202,205 deaths in Texas. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

That's an average of 553.5 deaths a day.

Yesterday we had a "state-record high" COVID-19-related deaths of 129: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/07/16/texas-reports-highest-death-toll-scoronavirus-pandemic/

You can draw your own conclusions about the reported inability of morgues to keep up with the "overwhelming" number of COVID-19 deaths.

FlyRod
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Nought, I'm wondering if what they did was take the average of the positivity rate over time. If you look at the "ugly graphics" on our local site, it's been all over the place. And since I hear more chatter about the positivity rate across the country, my guess is that's exactly what they did which makes your math spot on.

It's problematic to be sure...I think "active cases" is as well, for completely different reasons. Another discussion,
Ratsa
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I had the same exact thoughts and came to the same conclusion as you. It seems like they think we have 10 times the number of active cases than we do. I tried briefly to figure out where they got their data from, but didn't have any luck quickly and gave up.
Oogway
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Isn't it rather like the hospitals though with regards to how they often run high occupancy percentages and there isn't usually (sorry to be so blunt) a lot of storage space for the deceased?

In addition, the CDC talks about how some months average higher death totals than others. Such as January, February, and December being higher (usually due to flu and other respiratory infections). So wouldn't this also apply to locales in terms of outbreaks? By that I mean: Harris County has around 2000 fatalities a month. Thus far they have had around 500 COVID deaths. I didn't bother to look up when they began to see an increase, but one might safely assume it wasn't all at once. So, if they began to see an increase around, for example, April/May then that is roughly an extra 100 plus deaths a month which might be enough that they need the trucks? I understand that due to the way testing is conducted that there might be overlap, or that fatalities for other reasons such as automobiles might have decreased, but it doesn't seem out of the question that locations may ebb and flow in their need for mortuary assistance.

cavscout96
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Those all sound like reasonable reverse engineering of how they got there, but it doesn't change the fact that, for people unable or unwilling to do the same post mortem, that the sky is most certainly falling. Which it most certainly is......not.

Very misleading. Maybe not intentionally, but nonetheless.
tb9665
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Belton Ag
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Has someone put together a estimated case fatality rate and case hospitalization rate for our area?
isitjustme
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Belton Ag said:

Has someone put together a estimated case fatality rate and case hospitalization rate for our area?
On fatality, about 1.15% overall on 3,313 cases. (Reported covid deaths = 0.016% of total population)
About 15.6% for those 70 and older.
About 1.5% for those in their 50s and 60s. (my age group)
0.0000% for those under 50, or 0 of 2,581 cases, or 78% of total cases.


lockett93
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I think that 50% occupancy doesn't mean 50% of the tables. It means 50% of the Fire Marshall max occupancy.
Rapier108
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60 New Cases
1 New Death (Female in her 90s)
0 New Tests (Whatever)
31 in the hospital, occupancy rates virtually unchanged.

77801 +7
77802 +9
77803 +21
77807 +4
77808 +2
77840 +5
77845 +12

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.18.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nwspmp
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nought said:

The posts above got me thinking about numbers. The news reports about various places bringing in refrigerated trucks made me go hmmmmm.

According to the CDC, for 2018, there were 202,205 deaths in Texas. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

That's an average of 553.5 deaths a day.

Yesterday we had a "state-record high" COVID-19-related deaths of 129: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/07/16/texas-reports-highest-death-toll-scoronavirus-pandemic/

You can draw your own conclusions about the reported inability of morgues to keep up with the "overwhelming" number of COVID-19 deaths.




Well, people haven't stopped dying of other things too. If we are generous, an extra 20% of deaths could easily warrant an expansion of storage needed. I worked in a funeral home once. They had on site cold storage for four bodies. 20% expansion would need external storage.
91_Aggie
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nought said:

The posts above got me thinking about numbers. The news reports about various places bringing in refrigerated trucks made me go hmmmmm.

According to the CDC, for 2018, there were 202,205 deaths in Texas. See https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

That's an average of 553.5 deaths a day.

Yesterday we had a "state-record high" COVID-19-related deaths of 129: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/07/16/texas-reports-highest-death-toll-scoronavirus-pandemic/

You can draw your own conclusions about the reported inability of morgues to keep up with the "overwhelming" number of COVID-19 deaths.


That's a somewhat simplistic view.
And not enough information to draw any accurate conclusions except misguided ones.

Depends on where the deaths are happening, and the circumstances.

if more elderly dying and maybe ones that are poorer, they might be staying in morgues longer until family can get them.
But no one knows because not enough information.
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
trouble
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Death was a woman in her 90s.

3 discharges

69 recovered

Active cases down to 972

31 Brazos County patients, 68 regional

Brazos county hospitals

Total Bed Occupancy: 74%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 75%

Regional Stats
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 517
Available Hospital Beds - 145
Available ICU Beds - 4
Available Ventilators - 32
nthomas99
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If I'm counting right, here are our weekly tests performed for the last 4 weeks:

6,832 (6/21-6/27)
2,469 (6/28-7/4)
2,118 (7/5-7/11)
1,867 (7/12-7/18)

We are trending notably downwards in reported tests, during a time when daily testing at the state level has increase by around 50% (on 6/21 there was 33.5K viral tests and 7/16 there was 54K).

Any idea why? Are we really running less tests or is the backlog in reporting larger?
Bunk Moreland
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nthomas99 said:

If I'm counting right, here are our weekly tests performed for the last 4 weeks:

6,832 (6/21-6/27)
2,469 (6/28-7/4)
2,118 (7/5-7/11)
1,867 (7/12-7/18)

We are trending notably downwards in reported tests, during a time when daily testing at the state level has increase by around 50% (on 6/21 there was 33.5K viral tests and 7/16 there was 54K).

Any idea why? Are we really running less tests or is the backlog in reporting larger?


From 7/12-7/18 we've had 412 positive cases reported. Do you think 22% of all tests during that time have been positive?

If you don't then that means our county is awful at reporting the tests stat, which has been commented on numerous times.
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