B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

603,977 Views | 4423 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by cavscout96
Rapier108
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Last night on Broadcastify, there was a call to a facility in Brazos County (don't want to say the name or even the city for obvious reasons) and the dispatcher didn't even bother to say "check the call notes" which is usually code for the person should be treated as an assumed positive case. The dispatcher told them that the patient has all the major symptoms of the coronavirus. It's possible that all of the people at this location were already tested sometime ago and there was finally one which required hospitalization, or it could be the first case at that facility and we'll see a huge jump in its zip code in the next week or two, if they end up testing everyone there.

That said, I wish all of the people who only focus on the number of cases would use critical thinking for once and realize that the more we test, the more cases we will find, especially when tests are done for contract tracing purposes. If we tested every single person in Brazos County today, we would find thousands of cases, probably 10s of thousands, mostly asymptomatic.

Also, the number of deaths has dropped dramatically due to better care, especially not using ventilators except as the ultimate last resort, and possibly due to the fact the virus has started to weaken; like pandemic viruses always do eventually if they don't burn out first like SARS did. This is why the number of deaths doesn't get brought up much anymore; the numbers are no longer scary, but new cases can be made to sound apocalyptic.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
91_Aggie
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Yep. Would just like some honest assessment of that stats by doctors and scientists.
But that doesn't get eyes and clicks for CNN, Foxnews, every other news outlet that depends on advertising to make a profit.

So, they just talk about the thousands and thousands of positive cases and make it sound apocalyptic.
trouble
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S&W is seeing about a 5 day lag time for results and I'm hearing similar from St Joe's folks.
Bunk Moreland
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trouble said:

Slocum on a mobile said:

I'm in for 95.

Whoop!
Looks like you're the winner

Price is right rules. I win
EBrazosAg
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trouble said:

S&W is seeing about a 5 day lag time for results and I'm hearing similar from St Joe's folks.


Depends ... at least at Joes. Different priorities different turn time. Can be as low as 45 min for the rapid test (limited supply daily). Next day at ~ noon for the TVDML test (a limited supply again - mostly hospitalized and pre operative patients) 3-5 days for the rest - non hospitalized, etc. - these are send outs to a regional facility of a national lab.
isitjustme
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EBrazosAg said:

trouble said:

S&W is seeing about a 5 day lag time for results and I'm hearing similar from St Joe's folks.


Depends ... at least at Joes. Different priorities different turn time. Can be as low as 45 min for the rapid test (limited supply daily). Next day at ~ noon for the TVDML test (a limited supply again - mostly hospitalized and pre operative patients) 3-5 days for the rest - non hospitalized, etc. - these are send outs to a regional facility of a national lab.
And if it was prescribed in preparation of a procedure where anesthesia is involved, they'll have it back more quickly as the test/results have to be within 3 days of the procedure. This for S&W
oklaunion
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That said, I wish all of the people who only focus on the number of cases would use critical thinking for once and realize that the more we test, the more cases we will find, especially when tests are done for contract tracing purposes. If we tested every single person in Brazos County today, we would find thousands of cases, probably 10s of thousands, mostly asymptomatic.

But Rapier, last week the positivity rate was 49%. Way higher than it has been.
Rapier108
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oklaunion said:

That said, I wish all of the people who only focus on the number of cases would use critical thinking for once and realize that the more we test, the more cases we will find, especially when tests are done for contract tracing purposes. If we tested every single person in Brazos County today, we would find thousands of cases, probably 10s of thousands, mostly asymptomatic.

But Rapier, last week the positivity rate was 49%. Way higher than it has been.
Which was crap. Either they were only testing sick people and no one else which would cause a high positive rate, or there is serious issues with reporting.

I'll go with the latter because we've seen how piss poor the BCHD does with their reporting.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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Bunk Moreland said:

trouble said:

Slocum on a mobile said:

I'm in for 95.

Whoop!
Looks like you're the winner

Price is right rules. I win


What was your guess?
nthomas99
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oklaunion said:

That said, I wish all of the people who only focus on the number of cases would use critical thinking for once and realize that the more we test, the more cases we will find, especially when tests are done for contract tracing purposes. If we tested every single person in Brazos County today, we would find thousands of cases, probably 10s of thousands, mostly asymptomatic.

But Rapier, last week the positivity rate was 49%. Way higher than it has been.
If the positvity rate was indeed 49% in the presence of (semi) robust testing, and not because of delays or other artifacts in reporting, well... there'd be no point to masks, as we'll all have it within a week.

It takes a certain amount chutzpah to claim a 49% rate with absolutely no context and keep a straight face. I almost admire them.
Bunk Moreland
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89. I began the morning activity right above Rapier's post.

All in good fun. being 1 off is definitely closer, but Barker would have given it to me
FlyRod
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Had a visit with my doctor this morning (two of his colleagues were positive cases, one in the 50s, one in the 60s) and he was pretty adamant about not getting too cavalier about that hospitalization rate. They're bracing for a pretty bad surge. I hope it doesn't happen.

Fascinating to hear some things straight from someone on the front lines that you don't get from the press conferences or ugly graphics website.
jwj
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You say no one talks about deaths. You want critical thinking and then assert that deaths have "deaths have dropped dramatically ". Deaths statewide are at 84 today, over 20% higher than the previous high. How's that for critical thinking?
jim james
Bunk Moreland
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Is he your PCP or is he on the 'front lines?'
Rapier108
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There is no reason to come here and act like a jerk.

Deaths have been going down for over 2 months. There will always be random days with higher numbers.

I'd rather not flag people, but if all you want to do is toss insults at me, then so be it. Staff has already said more than once that this thread needs to remain civil.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
toolshed
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National daily deaths were in the thousands a couple or three months ago. End of last week it was around 250. There's no denying a drop in daily deaths. Even if they went up for a day or few. They are down, dramatically, overall.

Despite those that say otherwise, things are going really well on the medical front regarding treatments and survivability..
Bunk Moreland
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Deaths aren't even up imo. They're just being counted much more now thst we're testing so many more. And of course tagging every death who tested positive as a 'covid' death.

If we saw a spike to 300 deaths a day for a week I'd then acknowledge there's a major spike in true Corona deaths but the relatively small spike in deaths is likely much more due to people who began living their lives again and died for other reasons but have covid.
Oogway
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toolshed said:

National daily deaths were in the thousands a couple or three months ago. End of last week it was around 250. There's no denying a drop in daily deaths. Even if they went up for a day or few. They are down, dramatically, overall.

Despite those that say otherwise, things are going really well on the medical front regarding treatments and survivability..
No doubt. There was a period where it was 2000 a day when NY and NJ along with Detroit, Chicago, and New Orleans were suffering mightily.

I believe the doctors and research scientists have learned a lot in the months since the virus began surging in the densely populated areas as have we all. That's a positive thing to come from such a sad time.

When looking at the charts now, I find it somewhat helpful if one wants to make comparisons to look at California. Not as a side by side comparison as the two states are not identical but they are similar. Texas is slightly larger in area and California is slightly larger in population.

Three weeks ago, each state looked like this:
Average new cases/day
California: 3130
Texas: 1964

Two weeks ago:
California: 4148
Texas: 3940

One week ago:
California: 5554
Texas: 5559

This week (keeping in mind this week is not complete and all the numbers are averages)
California: 6670
Texas: 6991

For fatalities since January, California has had 6,460 while Texas has had 2,677. (all data from JHU)

The virus was in California fairly early and there was a report from a coroner in Santa Clara county where the autopsy revealed COVID back in February 6 from someone who had not traveled (fitting the then criteria to get tested) and in hindsight the thinking is that it was already in the community there at that time as earlier (January 31) Santa Clara had a traveler from Wuhan test positive.
California's first known case was January 25 from a traveler returning from Wuhan. Officials in various cities began declaring local emergencies as new cases emerged and eventually as the case count and fatalities rose, Gov. Newsom declared a state of emergency and began restricting gatherings and eventually shut down everything.

Texas first known COVID death was in March (16?) and because awareness was higher at that point, I believe that worked to assist in slowing the spread here as well as aid in the treatment of hospitalized patients and perhaps assist in their recovery.

With that, I wouldn't be surprised to see some fluctuation in numbers here, but HHS has indicated they are headed back to Texas to assist with more testing in surging areas, so hopefully that will help keep any contagious folks from spreading it around too much too soon.
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

Had a visit with my doctor this morning (two of his colleagues were positive cases, one in the 50s, one in the 60s) and he was pretty adamant about not getting too cavalier about that hospitalization rate. They're bracing for a pretty bad surge. I hope it doesn't happen.

Fascinating to hear some things straight from someone on the front lines that you don't get from the press conferences or ugly graphics website.



Not disputing your conversation, but I've had multiple conversations with a doc with 40+ years and gotten the exact opposite response.
cavscout96
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Dp
Counterpoint
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cavscout96 said:





Not disputing your conversation, but I've had multiple conversations with a doc with 40+ years and gotten the exact opposite response.
Isn't that exactly how EVERYTHING has gone during this pandemic?
cavscout96
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Counterpoint said:

cavscout96 said:





Not disputing your conversation, but I've had multiple conversations with a doc with 40+ years and gotten the exact opposite response.
Isn't that exactly how EVERYTHING has gone during this pandemic?



Unfortunately yes. makes it hard to separate the fact from the opinion
Rapier108
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78 New Cases
0 New Deaths
107 New Tests
Slight increase in hospital cases

77801 +4
77802 +10
77803 +24
77806 +2
77807 +5
77808 +3
77840 +14
77845 +16

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.8.20.pdf

There was a revised PDF from yesterday, but it probably just fixed some of the usual graphic errors. The numbers didn't change.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Is Not a Turtle
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so trend is down?
trouble
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1 discharge

72 additional recovered

Total Bed Occupancy: 67%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 69%

28 Brazos county residents hospitalized, 53 total Covid patients

Rapier108
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Quote:

28 Brazos county residents hospitalized, 53 total Covid patients
So +1 virus patients total from yesterday.

Given the increase in total patients, almost all of it was not due to the virus.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Oogway
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I'm confused. Are you referring to the difference between 53 total and the 28 Brazos County residents? I thought the 53 was inclusive of the other 6 or so counties in the trauma region. Or do you mean that some of the remainder is from people being tested prior to admission for other hospital care (that then tested positive).
toolshed
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Yesterday was 52 total patients. Today 53.

Yesterday's tally from a couple pages back.

trouble said:

23 Brazos county residents hospitalized, 52 total in local hospitals.

8 discharges

11 more recovered

Total Bed Occupancy: 63%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 61%
Rapier108
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Oogway said:

I'm confused. Are you referring to the difference between 53 total and the 28 Brazos County residents? I thought the 53 was inclusive of the other 6 or so counties in the trauma region. Or do you mean that some of the remainder is from people being tested prior to admission for other hospital care (that then tested positive).
Yesterday there was 52 total in the hospitals from Brazos and other counties. Today is it is 53.

There is a higher occupancy rate today than yesterday, but if the total number of virus patients only increased by 1, then the rest of the occupancy rate increase had to come from non-virus patients.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Oogway
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Ah, I get what you're saying now. That seems like a good thing (on the virus end of it) if the hosp # stays flat or trends downward over the next week.

Thanks for clarifying.
Ratsa
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I thought the 67% hospital occupancy and 69% ICU occupancy was specifically for Brazos County hospitals, while the 53 inpatients are for Trauma Service Area N, which includes 7 different counties in the Brazos Valley. Granted, I don't know how many of the other counties in the Brazos Valley have hospitals. I think Caldwell does?
trouble
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It's 25 beds and they are likely sending Covid patients here.

I can include the number of beds, ICU beds, and ventilators available in the region of anyone would like.
FlyRod
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Apologies if I asked before but do we have any data on the average time someone is spending in the hospital?
trouble
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We do not. Sullivan won't release that.
EBrazosAg
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Houston area hospitals are trying to send COVID patients here. In general our hospitals are not accepting, but do in very limited numbers.
 
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