B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

609,207 Views | 4442 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by MiMi
Slocum on a mobile
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trouble said:

We do not. Sullivan won't release that.


Because, reasons... and the local news media aren't interested in doing other than follow Sullivan's narrative.

Keep tossing softballs, Rusty.
nthomas99
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FlyRod said:

Apologies if I asked before but do we have any data on the average time someone is spending in the hospital?
The average daily hospitalizations rate since June 1 (date picked just to be far enough back to get meaningful sample) is 23.34. During that same period average daily discharges is 3.32. So I think a rough estimate of would be about 7 days. I suspect there's a huge deviation in that though, as some have come for oxygen in non ICU bed for a day or two and are gone, while others are there for weeks.
trouble
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I keep hearing this but without any real proof. Houston still has available beds.
Rapier108
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Slocum on a mobile said:

trouble said:

We do not. Sullivan won't release that.


Because, reasons... and the local news media aren't interested in doing other than follow Sullivan's narrative.

Keep tossing softballs, Rusty.
They won't even be doing press conferences anymore.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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Here's the full picture for our region.

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 514
Available Hospital Beds - 202
Available ICU Beds - 15
Available Ventilators - 39
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently In Hospital - 53
trouble
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And the same information for Houston's region.

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 12,846
Available Hospital Beds - 2,121
Available ICU Beds - 118
Available Ventilators - 1,194
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently In Hospital - 2,699
trouble
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Rapier108 said:

Slocum on a mobile said:

trouble said:

We do not. Sullivan won't release that.


Because, reasons... and the local news media aren't interested in doing other than follow Sullivan's narrative.

Keep tossing softballs, Rusty.
They won't even be doing press conferences anymore.
They were a waste of time and taxpayer money anyway.
Slocum on a mobile
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trouble said:

Rapier108 said:

Slocum on a mobile said:

trouble said:

We do not. Sullivan won't release that.


Because, reasons... and the local news media aren't interested in doing other than follow Sullivan's narrative.

Keep tossing softballs, Rusty.
They won't even be doing press conferences anymore.
They were a waste of time and taxpayer money anyway.


So, we have this huge problem, public menace, etc. but aren't doing any more press conferences. That makes total sense...
91_Aggie
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trouble said:

Here's the full picture for our region.

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 514
Available Hospital Beds - 202
Available ICU Beds - 15
Available Ventilators - 39
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently In Hospital - 53


Be nice if they would say how many of the 53 hospitalized are in ICU beds
trouble
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I agree. And Sullivan could. He chooses not to and blames it on HIPAA.
trouble
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Slocum on a mobile said:

trouble said:

Rapier108 said:

Slocum on a mobile said:

trouble said:

We do not. Sullivan won't release that.


Because, reasons... and the local news media aren't interested in doing other than follow Sullivan's narrative.

Keep tossing softballs, Rusty.
They won't even be doing press conferences anymore.
They were a waste of time and taxpayer money anyway.


So, we have this huge problem, public menace, etc. but aren't doing any more press conferences. That makes total sense...
People were slowly starting to ask hard questions.
91_Aggie
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Slocum on a mobile said:

trouble said:

We do not. Sullivan won't release that.


Because, reasons... and the local news media aren't interested in doing other than follow Sullivan's narrative.

Keep tossing softballs, Rusty.


Be nice if journalism majors were required to take courses in statistics and how to discern when certain stats given do not really mean anything unless you understand the bigger picture.
cavscout96
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91_Aggie said:

Slocum on a mobile said:

trouble said:

We do not. Sullivan won't release that.


Because, reasons... and the local news media aren't interested in doing other than follow Sullivan's narrative.

Keep tossing softballs, Rusty.


Be nice if journalism majors were required to take courses in statistics and how to discern when certain stats given do not really mean anything unless you understand the bigger picture.

perish the thought....

ain't nobody got time for that kind of logic and contextual understanding......what kind of "education" do you think we're providing here.... sheesh!
nought
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Cumulative daily rate to get from where we started to where we are now continues to fall:

Mar 20 2020 6 50.00 *
Mar 21 2020 10 58.11
Mar 22 2020 12 44.22 *
Mar 23 2020 12 31.61 *
Mar 24 2020 16 31.95
Mar 25 2020 21 31.83
Mar 26 2020 28 32.05
Mar 27 2020 31 29.17 *
Mar 28 2020 40 29.15 *
Mar 29 2020 44 27.10 *
Mar 30 2020 46 24.86 *
Mar 31 2020 53 24.03 *
Apr 01 2020 63 23.62 *
Apr 02 2020 68 22.43 *
Apr 03 2020 72 21.25 *
Apr 04 2020 75 20.11 *
Apr 05 2020 94 20.41
Apr 06 2020 94 19.17 *
Apr 07 2020 97 18.27 *
Apr 08 2020 108 17.91 *
Apr 09 2020 114 17.29 *
Apr 10 2020 116 16.54 *
Apr 11 2020 134 16.49 *
Apr 12 2020 140 15.97 *
Apr 13 2020 143 15.38 *
Apr 14 2020 149 14.93 *
Apr 15 2020 151 14.39 *
Apr 16 2020 158 14.03 *
Apr 17 2020 164 13.66 *
Apr 18 2020 169 13.29 *
Apr 19 2020 170 12.86 *
Apr 20 2020 170 12.43 *
Apr 21 2020 173 12.09 *
Apr 22 2020 177 11.79 *
Apr 23 2020 177 11.44 *
Apr 24 2020 181 11.17 *
Apr 25 2020 181 10.85 *
Apr 26 2020 182 10.57 *
Apr 27 2020 182 10.28 *
Apr 28 2020 188 10.10 *
Apr 29 2020 193 9.92 *
Apr 30 2020 197 9.72 *
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Texas reopens May 01 2020
May 01 2020 202 9.55 *
May 02 2020 208 9.40 *
May 03 2020 208 9.18 *
May 04 2020 209 8.98 *
May 05 2020 219 8.89 *
May 06 2020 232 8.83 *
May 07 2020 243 8.74 *
May 08 2020 256 8.67 *
May 09 2020 265 8.57 *
May 10 2020 271 8.45 *
May 11 2020 278 8.33 *
May 12 2020 287 8.23 *
May 13 2020 301 8.17 *
May 14 2020 305 8.05 *
May 15 2020 312 7.94 *
May 16 2020 318 7.84 *
May 17 2020 325 7.74 *
May 18 2020 333 7.65 *
May 19 2020 341 7.56 *
May 20 2020 362 7.54 *
May 21 2020 373 7.46 *
May 22 2020 383 7.39 *
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Memorial Day weekend May 23-25 2020
May 23 2020 436 7.48
May 24 2020 438 7.37 *
May 25 2020 441 7.27 *
May 26 2020 444 7.17 *
May 27 2020 455 7.10 *
May 28 2020 463 7.02 *
May 29 2020 470 6.94 *
May 30 2020 477 6.87 *
May 31 2020 483 6.79 *
Jun 01 2020 487 6.70 *
Jun 02 2020 501 6.65 *
Jun 03 2020 517 6.61 *
Jun 04 2020 532 6.56 *
Jun 05 2020 565 6.55 *
Jun 06 2020 605 6.56
Jun 07 2020 626 6.52 *
Jun 08 2020 634 6.45 *
Jun 09 2020 665 6.43 *
Jun 10 2020 684 6.39 *
Jun 11 2020 710 6.36 *
Jun 12 2020 721 6.30 *
Jun 13 2020 781 6.32
Jun 14 2020 803 6.28 *
Jun 15 2020 821 6.24 *
Jun 16 2020 880 6.25
Jun 17 2020 1025 6.36
Jun 18 2020 1095 6.36
Jun 19 2020 1163 6.36
Jun 20 2020 1225 6.35
Jun 21 2020 1244 6.30
Jun 22 2020 1260 6.24
Jun 23 2020 1305 6.21 *
Jun 24 2020 1377 6.21 *
Jun 25 2020 1493 6.23
Jun 26 2020 1615 6.25
Jun 27 2020 1720 6.25
Jun 28 2020 1822 6.25
Jun 29 2020 1943 6.25
Jun 30 2020 2005 6.22
Jul 01 2020 2127 6.22
Jul 02 2020 2228 6.21 *
Jul 03 2020 2331 6.19 *
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- July 4 2020 weekend
Jul 04 2020 2401 6.16 *
Jul 05 2020 2484 6.14 *
Jul 06 2020 2532 6.10 *
Jul 07 2020 2626 6.07 *
Jul 08 2020 2704 6.05 *

The asterisks on a given day represent an all time low (or a tie with the current all time low) as of the given date. There are now lines for "significant" dates (Texas reopening starting, Memorial Day weekend, July 4 weekend). Strangely, rates have continued to fall after each of these dates where the authorities warned us that rates were going to increase.

I can't emphasize enough how important it is to look at rates and not just absolute numbers.
dubi
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Quote:

I can't emphasize enough how important it is to look at rates and not just absolute numbers.

It would be wonderful if they didn't even publish the "number of cases".
scd88
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Can someone help me understand the cumulative daily rate?
dubi
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oops
nought
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scd88 said:

Can someone help me understand the cumulative daily rate?
Think of it like an APR of compound interest.

Let's say in year 1 you invest $1,000. You leave it alone and it earns interest at some rate. On year 21 (so 20 years have passed), you look and you have $2,653. What was your APR assuming simple interest compounded once per year? It was 5%. There's a formula to backsolve for that 5%, but you can check by taking $1,000 times 1.05 (and then keep multiplying by 1.05 19 more times). Or, you can take 1.05 to the power of 20, and then multiply by $1,000.

The numbers I posted are the same thing, but a DPR (daily periodic rate) rather than an APR needed to get from our first day of cases (4) to wherever we are on each day since.

On April 30, the day before Texas started reopening, we had a total of 197 cases. It took a daily rate of 9.72% each and every day to get us from those first 4 cases to those 197 cases.

Today we have 2,704 cases. It took a daily rate of 6.05% each and every day to get us from the first 4 cases to those 2,704 cases.

Why is it important to look at this? To know if things are getting better or worse. The absolute numbers will always grow and will always make it look like things are getting worse. And, absolute numbers do matter in terms of hospital beds (which by the way we are just fine on as of right now despite the constant "in two weeks there will be doom, I tell you, doom!" predictions). But, if we look at the rate like this, we can see that we absolutely are flattening the curve -- this is literally the definition of flattening the curve. The rate at which the number of local cases is growing is steadily decreasing, even after reopening and even after holiday weekends and protests.

We won't really know if the mask edict is making a difference for at least another week given the long incubation period of COVID-19. If the rate keeps decreasing at about the same rate it was already decreasing, then it means that masks didn't really improve anything -- it was already declining. If the rate decreases at a faster rate though, then we can guess that masks are making an impact.
scd88
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Thanks. I have several Covid Nazis in my family and need information to provide context to them.

Much appreciated.
australopithecus robustus
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/506241-stanford-expert-says-80-85-percent-of-texas-hospital%3famp
nought
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scd88 said:

Thanks. I have several Covid Nazis in my family and need information to provide context to them.

Much appreciated.

Just to play devil's advocate against myself -- realize that we need the rate to keep dropping. We are at roughly a 6% cumulative rate right now. Even at 6%, it means the total number of cases will double every 12 days. If the rate does not continue to drop, we'll hit Brazos County population 75 days from now.

Today's number is 2,704 cases. Take 1.06 to the power of 75 and then multiply by 2704. You get a little over 226,000, which is just about the population of our county. We need to hope that the rate continues to drop. Getting it down to just 5% changes that 226,000 to 110,000! 4% would be 53,000. 3% is 25,000. Getting the rate to half of what it is now, over the next 75 days, makes a difference of roughly 200,000 cases.
scd88
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Good stuff. Thanks.
Ratsa
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Nought, your approach is interesting. But there are a few things that I'm not seeing it capture. The big one to me is that recovered individuals shouldn't be contributing to new cases. By comparing the total number of cases to the very first 4 cases reported on March 19th, it seems like that is implying that infected people never stop spreading the virus.

The other thing that comes to mind is imagine that there were no new cases of COVID day after day (i.e., the total number of cases stays constant after a certain point in time.) We would say that COVID was no longer spreading in our community. But the "APR" approach you are suggesting would show that rate slightly reducing each day there aren't new cases, but not going down to 0%.

I'm wondering if something akin to spot rates might be a better way to think about this. I don't have the answer, but there are a lot of smart people here that may have an idea to contribute.
Slocum on a mobile
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I had a conversation with a Doctor friend on this today.

Deaths are falling as case numbers go up because of two main reasons:


1. Treatments are getting better with regards to certain steroids given and 2. The virus is getting weaker.
FlyRod
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As cavscout96 noted earlier, we're all getting rather different information from our doctors. Hell even my set of doctor friends disagree with each other where we might be headed.

They all agree that Houston is...in real trouble.

My PPO did say treatments are improving, so there's that.
jwj
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jwj
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[This thread is for talking about case numbers and we are doing our best to keep the thread from turning into a mask vs no mask thread. Thank you - Staff]
scd88
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Wherever I go, people are minding the mask orders. You should see if it has an impact and recognize the change in behavior. That is a big deal.
trouble
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Yes, more people are dying because more people have been infected. Worse would be if the rate of infection slowed and the death rate increased. Or if we start seeing spikes in younger demographics.

People are going to die. There's literally no way to stop that completely.
tb9665
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saltydog13
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Are you an Aggie Yankee sock?
AggieYankee1
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[We are trying to avoid banning posters for derailing threads but we are trying to keep this thread on track about numbers and not mask or no mask. Thank you - Staff]
AggieYankee1
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I am truly sorry if the tone I am seeing here is one of rage about wearing masks and how stupid they are.

[We are doing our best to keep any tone about masks off of this thread. Thank you - Staff]
EBrazosAg
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Don't hang hat on test numbers......lots of variables affect that. Not in the least that many local clinics are not testing those who are close contacts (wives, etc) of positives. Just telling them if symptomatic they are positive. 3 numbers matter: hospitalizations, ICU admits and deaths. Those are what tell you what is happening and what may affect you if you get sick.
MiMi
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S
100 new cases, 747 tests, no deaths

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.9.20.pdf
 
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