B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

681,298 Views | 4760 Replies | Last: 51 min ago by techno-ag
Oogway
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Hopefully a quick recovery and the rest of your family stays healthy.

benchmark
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AG
For me, my biggest takeaway since BCS started reporting cluster/comm data ... there's been no spike in community spread infections. Also, for the last 2 weeks, BCS has averaged only 2.4 community spread infections/day.

For local businesses, that's helpful intel for evaluating risk while interacting with the general public. For individuals, that's helpful info for retail consumers.

With community spread infections this low and with proper safeguards ... this is well within my risk tolerance for normalcy.
Slocum on a mobile
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AG
Quote:

Makes me think if there was a Hispanic event that led to this, it was a quinceanera.


I think it was called Easter, and we're still seeing the fallout from it.
Rapier108
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Slocum on a mobile said:

Quote:

Makes me think if there was a Hispanic event that led to this, it was a quinceanera.


I think it was called Easter, and we're still seeing the fallout from it.
Easter is too long ago for it to be the cause of the latest batch of cases.

And if it was Easter, you'd see a much more diverse (both in people and locations) cases.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
tb9665
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Until you know someone or your family.
FlyRod
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Was just reading a long depressing piece in Science about how pandemics disproportionately affect those on the margins. With that in mind, I'd very much like to see additional data on that for our area.
Tailgate88
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AG
benchmark said:

For me, my biggest takeaway since BCS started reporting cluster/comm data ... there's been no spike in community spread infections. Also, for the last 2 weeks, BCS has averaged only 2.4 community spread infections/day.

For local businesses, that's helpful intel for evaluating risk while interacting with the general public. For individuals, that's helpful info for retail consumers.

With community spread infections this low and with proper safeguards ... this is well within my risk tolerance for normalcy.



Agree. Now let's compare it to the flu.
benchmark
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AG
Tailgate88 said:

Agree. Now let's compare it to the flu.
I like the driving a car comparison.

In Brazos Co you're just as likely to know someone injured from an auto accident as someone with a community spread infection. Statistically speaking, 2.5 community spread infections/day per 230,000 population (about 400 per 100,000 annualized) is similar to the national avg for traffic accident injuries/deaths. Per CDC statistics ...
  • Auto accident Emergency Room visits ... 923 per 100,000
  • Auto accident hospitalizations ... 101 per 100,000
  • Auto deaths ... 11.2 per 100,000.
Be as careful as you are driving your car. You don't have to stop driving ... and you don't have to honk at everyone passing you while you're driving 35 in a 75 in the left lane
Rapier108
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6 new cases
70 new tests
0 deaths
No change in hospital numbers

77801 +3
77803 +3

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.16.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nthomas99
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AG
Rapier108 said:

6 new cases
70 new tests
0 deaths
No change in hospital numbers

77801 +3
77803 +3

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.16.20.pdf


No net change in hospitalizations, but there was 1 discharge, so 1 new patient.
lockett93
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AG
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

0 African American
1 Caucasian
5 Hispanic


5 Male, 1 Female

we had:
1 in 60's
1 in 50's
1 in 40's
2 in 30's
1 in 20's

0 in College Station zips
6 in Bryan zips

3 Community
3 Cluster
MBAR
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AG
The numbers dropping back down is a great thing. Hopefully the reopening keeps going ok here. That being said, you won't know it's gone sideways as it happens but until well after it has already happened.

Hope everyone stays safe. I'm going to keep wearing my mask and doing my part. I hope y'all do the same.
FlyRod
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Seems like identifying "clusters" will be important going forward for future targeted lockdowns (which other countries are doing right now), and there will be future lockdowns. Reducing the virus to a point where "mini outbreaks" can be quickly contained seems like a reasonably realistic thing (knock wood). I'm pretty optimistic BCS has the resources to handle this.

EBrazosAg
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AG
FlyRod said:

Seems like identifying "clusters" will be important going forward for future targeted lockdowns (which other countries are doing right now), and there will be future lockdowns. Reducing the virus to a point where "mini outbreaks" can be quickly contained seems like a reasonably realistic thing (knock wood). I'm pretty optimistic BCS has the resources to handle this.




Don't think that we have a lot of contact tracing capacity. We do not. The medical community in general is quite doubtful of the health department's capacity in contact tracing. You are correct on the strategy, along with some sort of background testing to see how prevalent it is in the "asymptomatic community". That data will probably give a warning if there is about to be a community spread (rather than cluster related) increase.
nmf96
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AG
Sorry for a little rant, but here it goes anyway... AGS, if there was ever a time to be part of the "resistance" it is now to RESIST the implementation of contact tracing!! That is an absolute assault on (Or confiscation of) our personal liberties and freedoms in the name of a government-run "health experiment." Our constitutional freedoms & protections matter and we must protect them, even in times of crisis (when I would argue these protections are even MORE important)!! Be smart, be prudent, be mindful of others, and most importantly, be you! We are all different and each one of us is responsible for our own decision making and risk tolerance. Americans don't live in fear, but Texans damn sure don't! Stay safe and be well and we will persevere. I am confident that we (the Aggie Family) will lead the way through this recovery bc that is what we do....LEAD BY EXAMPLE!! Thank you to all our Drs & frontline works for ALL that you do & know we all support you! Happy Sunday & Gig Em!!
Fitch
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AG
I'm not attacking here, but the concept of contact tracing is intended to limit spread, limit sickness and to give people who may be infected a heads up so they can be more cautious around their family, co-workers or at-risk loved ones. It can be an invasion of privacy --some governments and societies are taking a heavy handed approach but it doesn't have to be necessarily. Anyone who's carried a cell phone around the last ten years has had their anonymous location data shared with any number of data aggregators that package and resell it.

The idea of willfully withholding information that may help others is by all means the right of everyone, but I find encouraging it on a public forum to be concerning. We gotta get past this thing, get back to commerce and try to save people's businessesthe road to get there lies in being able to rebuild consumer confidence they won't get sick in a store or restaurant or at least have an understanding of the risk situation so they can decide for themselves.
nmf96
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AG
I am in total agreement with the objective, Fitch, but the idea that we have to turn over access to our personal health information to a private business and/or the government to eat in a restaurant, go shopping, go to any event is overkill Imo. There is no science that says that is effective at limiting the spread and the potential for abuse is boundless. There are WAY less restrict means that must be developed and deployed first before we start tracking ppl imo. That is a significant incursion on people's privacy that is not, at least at this stage, reasonably proven to relate to any health benefit. It is an experiment & the general population should not be mandated to be the subjects of that experiment. If private businesses want to employ those measures to protect their customers, then by all means, let the customers decide if they want to share their personal health information to go to that particular business. But, the govt has no business requiring that type of personal data collection on a widespread basis, again imo. The point of my post is to encourage Civil discourse And share my opinion. That is the purpose of this site and I think that is critical to an informed public....open and civil discourse. I don't begrudge those who disagree, but I think the consequences of giving up these personal freedoms is too great to sit by silently.
Monywolf
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Fitch said:

We gotta get past this thing, get back to commerce and try to save people's businessesthe road to get there lies in being able to rebuild consumer confidence they won't get sick in a store or restaurant or at least have an understanding of the risk situation so they can decide for themselves.
It's easy to give up freedoms. Not so easy to get them back.
Rapier108
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7 new cases
0 deaths
0 new tests
1 person out of the hospital

77802 +2
77803 +4
77808 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.17.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
benchmark
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AG
Good read on Digital Contact Tracing (DGT). Very controversial because of it's gateway potential to other "public interest" gov policies.

Link: Compulsory Digital Contact Tracing Is Probably Legal, but Still Sub-Optimal
Quote:

In order to be effective, however, contact tracing programs need the participation of about fifty to sevety percent of the population. Given such a high participation requirement, some experts are wondering if participation in these programs should be compulsory for smartphone users. This raises a number of legal and practical questions: would a compulsory DCT program be legal or practical at the state level? What about at the federal level? What are the implications of a compulsory DCT program, and are there any other strategies that could maximize citizen uptake?
Fitch
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AG
Specificity is pretty critical to this conversation. I agree there's a fine line that should be vigilantly watched, but the types of systems I've read Google and Apple are developing seem intentionally designed to keep the government or other onlookers out and privacy secure while still providing a mechanism for people to know if they have been in contact with a person who tested positive. It' would be more of a voluntary enrollment and self enforcement system than elsewhere.
Fitch
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AG
Well said. Thank you for introducing the topic and civil discourse.
lockett93
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AG
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

0 African American
1 Caucasian
6 Hispanic


4 Male, 3 Female

we had:
5 in 50's
2 in 40's

0 in College Station zips
7 in Bryan zips

2 Community
5 Cluster

Belton Ag
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AG
Fitch said:

Specificity is pretty critical to this conversation. I agree there's a fine line that should be vigilantly watched, but the types of systems I've read Google and Apple are developing seem intentionally designed to keep the government or other onlookers out and privacy secure while still providing a mechanism for people to know if they have been in contact with a person who tested positive. It' would be more of a voluntary enrollment and self enforcement system than elsewhere.
I'm still trying to reconcile the two thoughts where on one hand the county refuses to provide anything more than the most basic information regarding new cases or hospitalizations (other than we know they are humans and not plant based life forms) including remaining silent on the assisted living tragedies, while on the other hand they are going to go and backtrace everyone who tests positive and inform every single person the subject had contact with in the last 2 weeks that they tested positive.
Rapier108
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8 New Cases
0 New Deaths
0 New Tests (3 days in a row with 0 new tests)
4 In the Hospital (+1)

77801 +2
77802 +3
77803 +2
77845 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.18.20.pdf

I wonder if there is a cluster in 77802 because until very recently, the number of cases there hadn't increased much at all, and in the last few days it has jumped. I would guess a residence, but there are a lot of nursing homes in that zip code as well.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
gunan01
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AG
Seems like the increase in cases last few days in that zip code has been mostly in the Hispanic community. So my guess is a residence type situation.
lockett93
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AG
Rapier108 said:

I wonder if there is a cluster in 77802 because until very recently, the number of cases there hadn't increased much at all, and in the last few days it has jumped. I would guess a residence, but there are a lot of nursing homes in that zip code as well.
Based on no increases in the 70+ crowd since 5/13 it isn't a nursing home. 77802 has had 7 cases in last 7 days.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

3 African American
2 Caucasian
3 Hispanic

6 Male, 2 Female

we had:
1 in 40's
1 in 30's
2 in 20's
3 in 15-19
1 in <15



1 in College Station zips
7 in Bryan zips

4 Community
4 Cluster
Tailgate88
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AG
https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/KBTX-Investigates-More-than-two-dozen-COVID-19-cases-at-local-poultry-plant-570559221.html


Quote:

BRYAN, Tex. (KBTX) - More than two dozen employees have tested positive with COVID-19 at a poultry processing plant in Brazos County, KBTX has confirmed.

Several employees at the Sanderson Farms facility in Bryan have reached out to KBTX and shared concerns about working conditions inside the plant on Shiloh Avenue and the increasing number of workers who are testing positive for the virus.

As of Monday morning, at least 26 COVID-19 cases in Brazos County were linked to Sanderson Farms and its employees, according to records kept by the Brazos County Health District.

A spokeswoman for the health department says the situation will be part of Dr. Seth Sullivan's talking points during Monday afternoon's news conference at 4:30 p.m. that will be carried live on KBTX and KBTX.com.
Rapier108
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So KBTX is just now realizing this?

The BCHD said weeks ago that Sanderson Farms is one of the two clusters they could identify, the other being The Waterford.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
MiMi
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S
I believe the story was supposed to be focused on the employees reaching out to the media about their concerns of unsafe working conditions because the protocols Sanderson Farms says they put in place are not being fully enforced and that positive cases continue to increase?
Rapier108
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Looks like the lack of "new tests" on the daily update is a glitch. Sullivan said it will be updated tomorrow.

163 tests were done at the mobile testing site, 160 negative, 3 were positive.

Next mobile site in Brazos County will be May 20th. Appointment is required and you can register starting on the 19th.

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nthomas99
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AG
Someone asked on Brazos Health's FB page about the number of non-covid deaths per day in Brazos County. No answer from them, but it's a great question to put things in perspective. I did a little research and found that the CDC keeps a database (wonder.cdc.gov) of death data, and you can search at the county level.

In 2018, we had a total of 494.8 deaths per 100K in the population. In 2020, we have about 230K residents, so we'd expect 494.8*2.3 = 1,138 deaths this year. On average, that works out to 1138/365 = 3.12 per day. Deaths are likely not evenly distributed throughout the year, but this is a good rough estimate.

In the last 31 days, we've had 2 people die of covid-19. During that period, we would have expected 3.12*31 = 96.72.

Thus, assuming absolutely no co-morbidities (people who had no other conditions leading to death besides covid-19, which is very unlikely the case), we have had a 2/96.72 = 2.1% rise in deaths during the last month due to covid-19.

Going back to the first reported case on March 17 (which again is conservative, because it's likely been here longer that), including the tragedy at the Wateford, we've had a 18/(3.12*63)=9.2% rise in deaths (again, assuming no co-morbidity factors).

Thought it was interesting.
02skiag
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AG
Not sure I get the point of your calculation. You seem to say it would be interesting to have the current rate of non covid deaths. Then you make a calculation based on last years data.
lockett93
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AG
nthomas99 said:



Going back to the first reported case on March 17 (which again is conservative, because it's likely been here longer that), including the tragedy at the Wateford, we've had a 18/(3.12*63)=9.2% rise in deaths (again, assuming no co-morbidity factors).

Thought it was interesting.


I don't understand how you can say that we've had a rise of 9.2% unless we also had the other 3.12*63 deaths PLUS the 18 Covid deaths. I think the number of COVID alone isn't meaningful without the current year number of non covid. We may have saved more lives due to lower flu numbers or due to lower traffic fatalities, or we may have actually had many more than 18 "covid" deaths due to suicide, murder, or other causes related to the shutdown or the economy...
nthomas99
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AG
02skiag said:

Not sure I get the point of your calculation. You seem to say it would be interesting to have the current rate of non covid deaths. Then you make a calculation based on last years data.

This was a back of the napkin calculation to understand roughly the potential scope of the impact of covid-19. I think people on facebook, etc think we've seen a dramatic rise in deaths due to this thing. This calculation simply says, "no, it's no 10x, at the very worst, it's 2% in the last month, 9% overall."

I don't know that we have access to current death data for the last few months. That would certainly be worth calculating. It's not perfect, but extrapolating 2018 data as baseline for this year's is the best I could think of late at night


Quote:

I don't understand how you can say that we've had a rise of 9.2% unless we also had the other 3.12*63 deaths PLUS the 18 Covid deaths. I think the number of COVID alone isn't meaningful without the current year number of non covid. We may have saved more lives due to lower flu numbers or due to lower traffic fatalities, or we may have actually had many more than 18 "covid" deaths due to suicide, murder, or other causes related to the shutdown or the economy...

My goal was to get in the ballpark. Sure:

(1) less people died from car accidents/etc, so that would cause a downward adjustment

(2) some people listed as dying from covid-19 had other issues that might've lead to their demise. In any case, another downward adjustment.

(3) We may have more people who die due to putting off medical care during the shelter-in-place, causing an upward adjustments. This number would be great to measure the side-effects of our mitigation measures.

(4) ??? (something else we're not thinking about)

These will all have to be analyzed when we have this year's numbers in, and I think it'll be difficult to define the proper experimental controls / adjustments to isolate the deltas to the numbers for each of these. We may never know these answers.
 
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