B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

802,845 Views | 5546 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by trouble
nthomas99
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Rapier108 said:

4 new cases
73 new tests
0 deaths
1 person out of the hospital

77802 +1
77803 +2
77840 +1

I'll leave the number crunching to lockett93.

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.14.20.pdf



Interactive Version

The positivity rate trend is reverting to the long term average. Only 1 new case in the hispanic community which hopefully (we'll see what tomorrow brings) means that cluster is under control.

No case whatsoever that the partial reopening has caused things to hit the fan.
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cavscout96
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Slocum on a mobile said:

They have to take it seriously for it to get under control.
No sure what you mean
lockett93
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You inspired me to start keeping track! Data is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

2 African American
1 Caucasian
1 Hispanic

1 Male, 3 Female

Somehow we had:
-2 in 90's
1 in 80's
2 in 70's
2 in 50's
-1 in 40's
1 in 30's
1 in 20's

1 in College Station zips
3 in Bryan zips

1 Community
3 Cluster
Rapier108
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Math isn't my strong suit, so I'm happy to let you do it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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It's been discussed previously that some communities aren't taking the risks seriously.
dubi
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trouble said:

It's been discussed previously that some communities aren't taking the risks seriously.
The Dubi community wants all the businesses to re-open and everyone to wash their darn hands!

Stay home if you are sick.

Stay home if you are elderly.

Stay home if you have risk factors.
cavscout96
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trouble said:

It's been discussed previously that some communities aren't taking the risks seriously.
OK... didn't get the context from the previous discussion. I though the comment was about the graphs for some reason.
dubi
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cavscout96 said:

trouble said:

It's been discussed previously that some communities aren't taking the risks seriously.
OK... didn't get the context from the previous discussion. I though the comment was about the graphs for some reason.

I think it was regarding some of the clusters!
nwspmp
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Quote:


No case whatsoever that the partial reopening has caused things to hit the fan.

The leading edge of testing numbers trails the infection by 1-2 weeks in most cases. After infection, a person is typically asymptomatic for on average a week (studies cite 5-14 days, with most being on the lower side) but still can be spreading and then, if tested, results are coming back in a few days to a week, so any results from a partial reopening won't hit for another week to week and a half likely. That time is cut if testing is done early and done quickly.

Hopefully, those number are still showing signs of going down at that time.
FlyRod
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The FlyRod community wants businesses to re-open when they feel it is safe to, and keep their employees safe.

Don't question, belittle, or scream at people who choose to wear masks.

Keep 6 feet+ away from folks who make it clear they are trying to social distance when they have to be out .

Good luck and good health to all.
BQ_90
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who cares about testing if the hospital aren't being overrun

what happened to flatten the curve.

now is Zero new testing positve, BS

open **** back up ASAP
nthomas99
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nwspmp said:

Quote:


No case whatsoever that the partial reopening has caused things to hit the fan.

The leading edge of testing numbers trails the infection by 1-2 weeks in most cases. After infection, a person is typically asymptomatic for on average a week (studies cite 5-14 days, with most being on the lower side) but still can be spreading and then, if tested, results are coming back in a few days to a week, so any results from a partial reopening won't hit for another week to week and a half likely. That time is cut if testing is done early and done quickly.

Hopefully, those number are still showing signs of going down at that time.

I guess I should've been clearer. There's no case to be made yet. I agree we're still on the edge of results coming in, but I'd argue if it was as bad as some claimed it would be, we'd already be seeing the fall out. Every day, I see the naysayers on social media get quieter and quieter as the confirmed cases don't explode and the hospitals aren't collapsing as promised.

The partial reopening was May 1, so tomorrow will be the 2 week mark. The 5-14 day range has some distribution associated with it (I haven't read enough to know what it is). So though it's possible some don't see symptoms until 14 days, that not the case with many. If the predicted apocalyptic uptick was imminent, we would already see significant symptomatic people testing positive.

As to testing turnaround. I've been told firsthand that S&W turn is around 2 hours now. I also had a friend take a test yesterday and was told the results today on the phone.

We seem to have had a cluster in one population group this week where most of our new cases came from. That's not the distribution you'd expect from people daring to go out and grab a burger and some stuff out of the garden department at Lowes.

From what I observe, people for the most part are playing it conservatively anyways. I think most people are taking this pandemic seriously enough that you don't need shelter-in-place style orders anymore.

EDIT - you got me curious. A couple studies say the mean is around 5-6 days. The cumulative probability for the incubation distribution function in the first from the NIH looks like 60%-70% show symptoms by day 7. (Disclaimer, I am not an epidemiologist, I just googled and looked for legit source sites).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7014672/#__sec2title
https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease


KidDoc
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nthomas99 said:

nwspmp said:

Quote:


No case whatsoever that the partial reopening has caused things to hit the fan.

The leading edge of testing numbers trails the infection by 1-2 weeks in most cases. After infection, a person is typically asymptomatic for on average a week (studies cite 5-14 days, with most being on the lower side) but still can be spreading and then, if tested, results are coming back in a few days to a week, so any results from a partial reopening won't hit for another week to week and a half likely. That time is cut if testing is done early and done quickly.

Hopefully, those number are still showing signs of going down at that time.

I guess I should've been clearer. There's no case to be made yet. I agree we're still on the edge of results coming in, but I'd argue if it was as bad as some claimed it would be, we'd already be seeing the fall out. Every day, I see the naysayers on social media get quieter and quieter as the confirmed cases don't explode and the hospitals aren't collapsing as promised.

The partial reopening was May 1, so tomorrow will be the 2 week mark. The 5-14 day range has some distribution associated with it (I haven't read enough to know what it is. So though it's possible some don't see symptoms until 14 days, that not the case with many. If the predicted apocalyptic uptick was imminent, we would already see significant symptomatic people testing positive.

As to testing turnaround. I've been told firsthand that S&W turn around is 2 hours now. I also had a friend take a test yesterday and was told the results today on the phone.

We seem to have had a cluster in one population group this last week where most of our new cases came from. That's not the distribution you'd expect from people daring to go out and grab a burger and some stuff out of the garden department at Lowes.

From what I observe, people for the most part are playing it conservatively anyways. I think most people are taking this pandemic seriously enough that you don't need shelter-in-place style orders anymore.

I had a few this week- one swab PCR took about 8 hours- a blood antigen test took about 24 hours.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Rapier108
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KBTX acting like Brazos County is going to be New York City in their interview with Governor Abbott.

Abbott told them that the models that predicted doom were wrong, and we've never seen any of what they said would happen.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Jbob04
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Rapier108 said:

KBTX acting like Brazos County is going to be New York City in their interview with Governor Abbott.

Abbott told them that the models that predicted doom were wrong, and we've never seen any of what they said would happen.

That channel is so hard to watch. They don't hide their bias at all. Don't get me started on Shel and his climate change bs too.
saltydog13
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Jbob04 said:

Rapier108 said:

KBTX acting like Brazos County is going to be New York City in their interview with Governor Abbott.

Abbott told them that the models that predicted doom were wrong, and we've never seen any of what they said would happen.

That channel is so hard to watch. They don't hide their bias at all. Don't get me started on Shel and his climate change bs too.

You mean freak out when it's 5 degrees warmer than the average, but act like nothing's different if it's 10-20 degrees below average?
Rapier108
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Jbob04 said:

Rapier108 said:

KBTX acting like Brazos County is going to be New York City in their interview with Governor Abbott.

Abbott told them that the models that predicted doom were wrong, and we've never seen any of what they said would happen.

That channel is so hard to watch. They don't hide their bias at all. Don't get me started on Shel and his climate change bs too.
Shel is useful during severe weather, but that's about it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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I just follow his Instagram. I get forecasts without the other bs
motherrunnersBCS
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What are the rules for grocery workers now? I did my weekly grocery pickup and the girl who brought out my groceries had no mask on her face, just around her neck. No gloves. This is different from last week. When asked about it, she said that "they want us to wear a mask". Apparently wearing it means around her neck. All the other delivery people were doing the same.

I wonder if it occurred to her that a lot of people who are getting their groceries from her are elderly, immune-compromised, or even people who have been exposed who are trying to protect the public by not going into the store. She could also carry it home. Done with that store.
cavscout96
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Did you call the manger?
Rapier108
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Every time I've gone to the store, either for pickup or the rare trip inside, I've seen employees wearing masks and many have had gloves on.

I don't think there is any local or state rules; but most companies have required it for their employees. How much each store enforces it probably varies to some degree.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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cavscout96 said:

Did you call the manger?
The world doesn't need more Karens right now.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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7 New Case
No New Deaths
73 New Tests
No Change in Hospital Numbers

77801 +2
77803 +3
77840 +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.15.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
firefly1204
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Here's my question.

First, a large percentage of the cases in Brazos county are "cluster related." We know there was a large cluster at one particular nursing home in South CS, so that is in the 77845 zip code. The next highest number of cases is occuring in 77803 zip code. No one is saying where those cases are originating and that may be due to HIPPA regulations, I don't know. Does anyone know where the cases in 77803 are coming from? A chicken processing facility? Another business that has people in close proximity? The origination of the cluster wouldn't have to be in that zip code but the people infected would live in that zip code, so I would think the "cluster" would be near there. Also, there has been a large amount of the Hispanic population that is being effected from this virus.
FlyRod
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I get stuff delivered to my house, and no one is ever wearing a mask. I wait a while, then disinfect each item. It's a pain, but that's part of the new normal. Ditto for snail mail.
Rapier108
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firefly1204 said:

Here's my question.

First, a large percentage of the cases in Brazos county are "cluster related." We know there was a large cluster at one particular nursing home in South CS, so that is in the 77845 zip code. The next highest number of cases is occuring in 77803 zip code. No one is saying where those cases are originating and that may be due to HIPPA regulations, I don't know. Does anyone know where the cases in 77803 are coming from? A chicken processing facility? Another business that has people in close proximity? The origination of the cluster wouldn't have to be in that zip code but the people infected would live in that zip code, so I would think the "cluster" would be near there. Also, there has been a large amount of the Hispanic population that is being effected from this virus.
Early on where was an outbreak at Sanderson Farms. This is the only confirmed cluster other than The Waterford. Many of the other clusters have been residences where one person brings it home and infects everyone else. These they can't talk about specifically because it would require giving out addresses. That said, I am virtually certain there was a cluster that involved at least 5 houses on one street in College Station based on the number of EMS calls over the course of 3 days, all of which were for "difficulty breathing/respiratory problems". This was early on in the outbreak, not recently.

Unless there has been a second cluster appearing at Sanderson Farms, which seems unlikely, the spike in cases in the Hispanic community, especially 77803, is from something else. Given the Monday press conference, which was nearly all targeting the Hispanic community, I'm thinking it has been due to something else. My theory, and it is just an educated guess, is there was some kind of gathering that ended up being a small super spreading event. I say this because we went from a very low number of daily cases to a double digit spike which continued for days. As was seen in other cities and states, this tends to correspond to a mass gathering which results in a lot of cases in short order. The other possibility is most people in that community are just not taking even basic precautions which makes it easier to spread the virus around, especially since it is not uncommon for Hispanic families to be large, with 2-3 generations living in one household. Perhaps it is a combination of the two.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

0 African American
1 Caucasian
5 Hispanic
1 Other

2 Male, 5 Female

we had:
2 in 20's
2 in 15-19
3 in <15

2 in College Station zips
5 in Bryan zips

2 Community
5 Cluster


2 and 5 keeps popping up, so maybe it's 5 young hispanic girls in Bryan zip codes are part of the cluster, Then 1 Caucasian male and 1 other race male in CS zip code 77840 ??
trouble
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I don't disinfect anything. The chances of it being passed through contact are incredibly small. I just wash my hands after I put everything away, like I've always done.
Rapier108
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Quote:

2 and 5 keeps popping up, so maybe it's 5 young hispanic girls in Bryan zip codes are part of the cluster, Then 1 Caucasian male and 1 other race male in CS zip code 77840 ??
That makes perfect sense.

Makes me think if there was a Hispanic event that led to this, it was a quinceanera.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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It definitely seems that way. I'm thinking a private event, wedding, birthday, quinceanera, something along those lines.
motherrunnersBCS
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No, I did not report it. However I have had a cough for three days which is why I used pickup. Now this kid just breathed air from my little hatchback car where I was just sitting for 20 minutes waiting for my groceries. I feel really bad for her because I did not wear a mask, because I was not getting out of my car. I do not have a fever, but I have a cough and red eyes and a stomach ache. Could just be the regular flu, or a stomach bug - the store I went to last week had half the staff out for a stomach problem. Meanwhile, I need groceries and supplies. Hopefully the other stores have their acts together. I gotta get stuff together in case I cannot get out for awhile.
lockett93
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motherrunnersBCS said:

No, I did not report it. However I have had a cough for three days which is why I used pickup. Now this kid just breathed air from my little hatchback car where I was just sitting for 20 minutes waiting for my groceries. I feel really bad for her because I did not wear a mask, because I was not getting out of my car. I do not have a fever, but I have a cough and red eyes and a stomach ache. Could just be the regular flu, or a stomach bug - the store I went to last week had half the staff out for a stomach problem. Meanwhile, I need groceries and supplies. Hopefully the other stores have their acts together. I gotta get stuff together in case I cannot get out for awhile.
A mask would not have helped too much to prevent the staff member from breathing the potentially contaminated air from your car. Masks predominantly help keep the infected person from broadcasting their germs. So, unless they were wearing a properly fitted mask that was truly filtering all air in and out and not "around" the mask.
tb9665
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Well, I guess the store that had half their staff out for a stomach problem was not wearing their masks correctly.
amdee28
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Kinda seems like you should have been the one wearing the mask in this situation.
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