B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

802,861 Views | 5546 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by trouble
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

And also likely that many deaths from COVID are being uncounted or counted as something else, so % fatality rate could be higher too.
Another story likely coming is what "recovered" means as more and more data trickle in about "survivors" with major damage to organskidneys, heart, lungs, and brain it seems mostly.
um... no. way more likely that the opposite is true.
MBAR
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cavscout96 said:

FlyRod said:

And also likely that many deaths from COVID are being uncounted or counted as something else, so % fatality rate could be higher too.
Another story likely coming is what "recovered" means as more and more data trickle in about "survivors" with major damage to organskidneys, heart, lungs, and brain it seems mostly.
um... no. way more likely that the opposite is true.
No, its is easily verifiable that we are under counting COVID deaths. Our death rates have gone way up, much higher than the death rates that are this point assigned to COVID. A large part of the difference between the two are COVID deaths attributed to natural sources. The number of people dying at home in many locations has skyrocketed over 500%.

So, more people are dying. More people are dying without a doctor around. Most of these deaths are not currently attributed to COVID.

Its fairly impossible that we're over counting the number of deaths from COVID but almost certain that we are under counting them.
Wicked Good Ag
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What are the current guidelines in town for groups?? No more than 10 or has that expired ??
Rapier108
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F84 spreading its doom and gloom on every other part of the site gets really old.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
benchmark
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Of the 70 cases reported the last 10 days (May 2-11)
  • 33% - Community (23)
  • 63% - Cluster (44)
  • 4% - Travel (3)
ETA. By Race for same period:
  • 74% - Hispanic (52)
  • 21% - Caucasian (15)
  • 3% - Black (2)
  • 1% - Other (1)
trouble
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I'm gonna need to see a citation for that.
MBAR
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trouble said:

I'm gonna need to see a citation for that.
https://www.businessinsider.com/yale-study-excess-deaths-nearly-twice-official-covid-19-count-2020-4

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066431v2

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/17/fact-check-covid-19-death-toll-likely-undercounted-not-overcounted/2973481001/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fdny/at-home-covid-19-deaths-may-be-significantly-undercounted-in-new-york-city-idUSKBN21P3KF

Rapier108
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Can we leave this to discussing what is occurring in B/CS and not turn it into another Coronaboard type discussion thread?
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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Thanks, I'll read those during naptime.
trouble
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Sorry
Esteban du Plantier
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The Reuters article is specifically about NYC. Not sure how that reflects on the country as a whole.

I had heard that there was a surge in at-home deaths...from cardiac arrest. People too afraid of covid to go to the hospital dying at home from what they think is a mild event.

CDC reported all-cause mortality was down, not up, since people are not likely to die from trauma on their couch.

I'm not sure what the exact answer is, but looking at NYC for meaningful data to extrapolate is disingenuous.
.
cavscout96
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Who is the guy ranting at the presser about masks.

Hantis?
Rapier108
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First off, I'll apologize if I make any errors on this.

From the BCHD's latest presser. They've got a bunch of people from the Hispanic community there today.

Not going to post the numbers they're reading, as those were already posted.

- Swimming pools/splash pads/hot tubs are not likely to spread the virus as long as the proper disinfection is done to the water (nothing different, just what is already done). No date on when they will reopen local pools.

- Talked about the study A&M is doing to see if the BCG vaccine can help with the virus.

- Karla from KBTX going over preventive measure, in both English and Spanish.

- Karla says this is not an "immigration issue." (Here is a hit Karla, no one cares about illegal immigration when it comes to the virus, other than we don't want people coming from Mexico and bringing the virus with them. No one is going to use the virus to check status and deport someone.) My Spanish sucks, but she said far more in Spanish than she did in English.

-The next three people are in Spanish only, so I can't say anything about what's he's saying. I can pick out a few words and phrases, but that's it.

This says to me that there is a much bigger problem then they're letting on with spread in the Hispanic community.

I'm out for a bit. Someone else please post if there is anything interesting during the Q&A. Not that I'm expecting much if anything at all.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
oklaunion
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I think it was Bill Oliver asked near the end if the priest and the next Spanish speaking lady could go back over what they said but this time in English. The lady came back up and started repeating what she said but still in Spanish. I walked out.
Rapier108
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9 new cases
0 deaths
1 more in the hospital
165 new tests

Increases in people in their 20s, 40s, 50s, with under 15 and 30s staying the same percentage.

Again, increase in cases among Hispanic, blacks inched up by 0.1%, and whites dropped by 0.7%.

Cluster related inched up by 0.5% while the others dropped.

77801 +1
77802 +1
77803 +3
77807 +2
77808 +1
77845 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.12.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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I built a simple spreadsheet to look at the daily data if anyone wants to look.

Today's increases were 2 in their 50's, 2 40's, 2 30's and 3 in their 20's.

1 African American
2 Caucasian
6 Hispanic
4 men, 5 women.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit
benchmark
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Also ... 6 of today's 9 are "cluster" related.
02skiag
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I wish we could know what the ages of the hospitalized are here, statewide as well. The known data on deaths points to this only being a major issue for the elderly. I am curious if hospitalizations show the same.
Loaded
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Has "cluster" been defined previously and I missed it? I'm interested to know how a case qualifies as cluster vs community spread.
dubi
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Loaded said:

Has "cluster" been defined previously and I missed it? I'm interested to know how a case qualifies as cluster vs community spread.
Multiples living in a home, a social group, a workplace, nursing home, or an extended family who is NOT social distancing.
KidDoc
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Loaded said:

Has "cluster" been defined previously and I missed it? I'm interested to know how a case qualifies as cluster vs community spread.
I do not work with the health department but I will let you know how it works in theory.

You get Bob, who is sick, he gets tested and has COVID.

You do contact tracing and get in touch with everyone Bob has been in contact for the last 7ish days. You call them and ask about symptoms, inform them that they were exposed to a confirmed COVID, and ask them to start 14 day self quarantine. If you start to get sick during that time you contact the tracer staff and they get you tested.

That is a cluster related case.

Community spread means no known exposure.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Rapier108
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Loaded said:

Has "cluster" been defined previously and I missed it? I'm interested to know how a case qualifies as cluster vs community spread.
Vaguely at best.

We know something like The Waterford and Sanderson Farms are classified as clusters. The same for a residence that one person brings it home, and then gives it to the other people living there.

Beyond that, they haven't said what else they define as a cluster. IIRC, someone asked that question at one of the press conferences, and Sullivan did his usual "we can't give out more information" reply.

What we don't know is if an event where a lot of people gathered together and some were infected is defined as a cluster by the BCHD. Logic says it should be, but our local officials don't seem to follow logic. Same for an outbreak in a neighborhood. I'm absolutely certain there was one in College Station early on, due to the number of EMS calls to 5 or 6 difference addresses on one street over the course of 3-4 days; some addresses had more than one call for EMS. Almost every call was for "difficulty breathing or respiratory problems". Again, logic says it would be classified as a cluster, but they've never said what else they officially say is or is not.

One thing we know has not happened is a cluster, whether they define it that way or not, at a grocery store according to one of the earlier press conferences.

To me, "community spread" is when someone is infected, but they do not known when or where. They had no contact with a sick person, but clearly came into contact with someone while in public such as at the grocery store, doctor's office, or some other public location.

It seems now, given so many people are avoiding contact with others, going out only when needed, wearing masks (actual level of benefit of that is debatable), washing hands, etc. etc. etc. that cluster spread would account for most new cases.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Loaded
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Thanks dubi, KidDoc, and Rapier108.
cavscout96
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KidDoc said:

Loaded said:

Has "cluster" been defined previously and I missed it? I'm interested to know how a case qualifies as cluster vs community spread.
I do not work with the health department but I will let you know how it works in theory.

You get Bob, who is sick, he gets tested and has COVID.

You do contact tracing and get in touch with everyone Bob has been in contact for the last 7ish days. You call them and ask about symptoms, inform them that they were exposed to a confirmed COVID, and ask them to start 14 day self quarantine. If you start to get sick during that time you contact the tracer staff and they get you tested.

That is a cluster related case.

Community spread means no known exposure.


I'm not saying you are not correct, but this is not what I presumed. I would have called this a classic example of community spread.



I presumed clusters to be:

- families where multiple contract
- coworkers from the same office/facility
- cohabitants like Retirement homes and prisons (feels weird to but those two together)

I would have thought C/S was more like "John is positive, works with Sally, Sally (now exposed) goes to XYZ place and interacts with Jill. Jill contracts. Jill is infected, but doesn't know, and goes to ABC hair salon and gives it to James, her stylist, etc., etc., etc. (channeling my best Yul Brenner).
KidDoc
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cavscout96 said:

KidDoc said:

Loaded said:

Has "cluster" been defined previously and I missed it? I'm interested to know how a case qualifies as cluster vs community spread.
I do not work with the health department but I will let you know how it works in theory.

You get Bob, who is sick, he gets tested and has COVID.

You do contact tracing and get in touch with everyone Bob has been in contact for the last 7ish days. You call them and ask about symptoms, inform them that they were exposed to a confirmed COVID, and ask them to start 14 day self quarantine. If you start to get sick during that time you contact the tracer staff and they get you tested.

That is a cluster related case.

Community spread means no known exposure.


I'm not saying you are not correct, but this is not what I presumed. I would have called this a classic example of community spread.



I presumed clusters to be:

- families where multiple contract
- coworkers from the same office/facility
- cohabitants like Retirement homes and prisons (feels weird to but those two together)

I would have thought C/S was more like "John is positive, works with Sally, Sally (now exposed) goes to XYZ place and interacts with Jill. Jill contracts. Jill is infected, but doesn't know, and goes to ABC hair salon and gives it to James, her stylist, etc., etc., etc. (channeling my best Yul Brenner).
We are saying the same thing basically. In your case James has no known exposure since Jill doesn't know she is infected.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
benchmark
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Loaded said:

Has "cluster" been defined previously and I missed it? I'm interested to know how a case qualifies as cluster vs community spread.
Per CDC (paraphrased for simplicity) - clusters are infections that can be traced to a larger transmission chain.
Rapier108
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14 new cases
189 new tests (wonder if this is mostly from the drive through testing they did)
0 new deaths or hospital cases

They've finally labeled the under 15 category on the pie chart and it had a pretty good jump today.

Under 15, 15-19, 40s, and 60s showed an increase while 50s remained the same, percentagewise. Everything else dropped a bit.

0.2% drop in blacks, 1% in whites, 1.2% increase among Hispanics.

Cluster related also increased its total percentage.

77801 +2
77803 +6
77808 +1
77840 +3
77845 +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.13.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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I'd guess yes on the number of tests.
lockett93
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DDP
lockett93
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Today's results include:

1 African American
3 Caucasian
10 Hispanic

9 Male, 5 Female

1 in 70's
2 in 50's
2 in 40's
1 in 30's
2 in 20's
4 in <15

5 in College Station zips
9 in Bryan zips

5 Community
9 Cluster

cavscout96
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benchmark said:

Loaded said:

Has "cluster" been defined previously and I missed it? I'm interested to know how a case qualifies as cluster vs community spread.
Per CDC (paraphrased for simplicity) - clusters are infections that can be traced to a larger transmission chain.
fairly broad definition
benchmark
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cavscout96 said:

benchmark said:

Per CDC (paraphrased for simplicity) - clusters are infections that can be traced to a larger transmission chain.
fairly broad definition
If it helps ... 'community spread' is generally defined as infections that can't be traced and localized enough to 'ring-fence.'

That said, who knows how Brazos Co classifies.
etj77845
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Brazos County, relative to say Galveston County, does not do a good job of passing along information. I monitor Galveston County's Dashboard due to having family in the area and they are IMO much superior to locals.
http://galvcountymaps.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cb485269e11f42508e6ed1e969e4ef75

For example:
"Of the county's 691 cases, 257 are tied to long-term care facilities. This count includes residents and employees. Cities that have seen a large number of cases tied to long-term care facilities are noted on the case update. Twenty-seven of the 30 deaths reported to date by the health district are related to long-term care facilities in Galveston County."

Same can be said of Brazoria County's reporting to their citizens. They too have a Dashboard with useful information.
Rapier108
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etj77845 said:

Brazos County, relative to say Galveston County, does not do a good job of passing along information. I monitor Galveston County's Dashboard due to having family in the area and they are IMO much superior to locals.
http://galvcountymaps.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cb485269e11f42508e6ed1e969e4ef75

For example:
"Of the county's 691 cases, 257 are tied to long-term care facilities. This count includes residents and employees. Cities that have seen a large number of cases tied to long-term care facilities are noted on the case update. Twenty-seven of the 30 deaths reported to date by the health district are related to long-term care facilities in Galveston County."

Same can be said of Brazoria County's reporting to their citizens. They too have a Dashboard with useful information.
Yep, which goes to show the "we can't release anymore information" excuse that Sullivan keeps giving is nothing but a flat out lie. They wouldn't even admit the outbreak at The Waterford until the families went to the media, and KBTX had a random act of journalism in looking into it. Although, I have no doubt KBTX knew about it, and kept it quiet at the behest of our local leaders. They listen to the local police and fire/ems traffic all the time, so they knew there were multiple runs per day to The Waterford for people suffering from coronavirus.

Our local media, be it KBTX, The Eagle, KAGS, or WTAW are worthless when it comes to holding our local officials accountable for anything.

No one has ever asked for names and addresses of people with the virus, but they should be telling us far more then they are.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Rapier108
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4 new cases
73 new tests
0 deaths
1 person out of the hospital

77802 +1
77803 +2
77840 +1

I'll leave the number crunching to lockett93.

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.14.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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