B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

609,226 Views | 4442 Replies | Last: 17 hrs ago by MiMi
iisanaggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
What KidDoc said! Also, the number of cases will continue to rise as more testing is done. On that note, I had the antibody test done the other day. I was negative for active case as well as antibodies. Are those results being reported? I would like to know how many positive as well as negative cases to get a better idea of the percent of positives from tests.
backinbcs
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The HIPPA excuse is definitely BS. They have done a terrible job giving out useful information. Pathetic actually. And where can you get the antibody test?
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
9 new cases. No new deaths. 1 hospital discharge.
trouble
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
They are reporting total number of tested. We're at about 6% positive.
GeographyAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
KidDoc said:

Enough with the day to day hand wringing over cases that likely were exposed 7-10 days ago. This virus is here to stay. The purpose of the shutdown was to allow the development of testing and build up PPE so hospitals were not over-run. Mission accomplished.

Mask, hand wash, take your vitamins, get good sleep. If you are high risk and can do it then shelter as best you can. It sucks.

When or if a vaccine is made then things will be pretty much back to normal. Until then we have to learn to live with the risk and take reasonable precautions.

(rant over)
Thank you!!
If I’m posting, it’s actually Mrs GeographyAg.
Mr. GeographyAg is a dedicated lurker.
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
9 new cases
No deaths
1 out of the hospital
133 new tests

77801 +2
77803 +3
77808 +2
77845 +2

Most new cases appear to be in the 15-19, and 50s age ranges. 40s and 20s did not show any increase or decrease percentagewise between yesterday and today.

Also, I'm guessing that orange sliver on the graph between 90s and 15-19 is people under 15. If so, that percentage yesterday was 3.2, and today it is 3.4.

Most cases would appear to again be Hispanic, probably at least 1 white due to that percentage not changing. Also, most are probably male given the change in breakdown between men and woman from yesterday to today.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nthomas99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Bored this morning. So I drew a graph.

7 Day trailing averages of positivity rate, hospitalizations, and deaths.

The positivity rate has certainly trended up (hard in a constrained testing environment to tell why). Hospitalizations as we all know declining. Deaths relatively flat. I'd draw the hospitalization capacity line, but it'd squash the scale of the graph

KidDoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
backinbcs said:

The HIPPA excuse is definitely BS. They have done a terrible job giving out useful information. Pathetic actually. And where can you get the antibody test?
St Jo has IgG- per the email I got it is $10 + blood draw fee
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
91_Aggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
KidDoc has it correct.

The point of the "shelter in place/social distancing" is to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

It is NOT to stop EVERY single instance of infection or new cases.
That can never happen.

The people that believe that we cannot do anything more to open up until there are zero new cases are not being reasonable/using common sense/have a sense of "no matter the cost, if a single person dies, then we haven't paid enough".

This isn't going away ever. Just like the common flu has never gone away and still kills people every year.

How do you think this works out?
Are you of the belief of "We just have to wait until the last person who has Covid currently gets over it, then we can open up back up because then everyone will be safe" ???

That is not how this works.

And we certainly can't wait 18 months to 2 years or more for a vaccine to be developed. Hell, we still don't have a full-proof vaccine for the flu

Quit being chicken-little and use some common sense here.
75AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And IF a vaccine is developed and proves effective (we had very little success with any coronavirus vaccine), how will it be massed produced? We currently in the US manufacture vaccine for approximately 168 million people each year: 4 million for the annual birth cohort; 4 million for adults; and roughly 160 million for influenza. To achieve herd immunity (~70%) we will need around 270 million doses. And that if it's only a 1 vaccine series. We have no where near the manufacturing capacity in the US. And if we transition current manufacturers to the novel coronavirus vaccine, what happens to the manufacturing of necessary childhood vaccines? And we haven't even discussed the 6-7 billion doses needed worldwide. Finding the vaccine is just a step. And maybe the easiest step.
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
91_Aggie said:

KidDoc has it correct.

The point of the "shelter in place/social distancing" is to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

It is NOT to stop EVERY single instance of infection or new cases.
That can never happen.
Unfortunately, the goal posts have been moved to "prevent even one new case."

This is why some people are calling for full on, 3 month lock downs, while others want shelter in place orders that go on and on, and on perhaps forever, for at least for another 18 months.

Why, who knows, but for some it is because they're nothing but terrified sheeple who are now afraid to come out of their closet. Others it is 100% political because they are using the virus as an election year weapon. Then of course you have the risk-averse Karens who wrap their children in bubble wrap before going outside.

Yes, the Karens comment is hyperbole, but the point about those kinds of people is true.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Fitch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Charts are self-made, but use data from the Texas Department of State Health Services (Cases over Time by County): https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

Those saying "don't pay attention to the daily change" are 100% correct. All of these data are lagged by anywhere from 3-14 days from when a test was actually performed, let alone when someone may have become sick. Trends over time tell the story much better. Day-to-day changes will drive you loco.

My own two-cents is that if people are given data and not opinionated hyperbole they can make an informed decision about how to respond and conduct themselves. We need to get past the bombastic absolutes between sheltering at home indefinitely and going back to business as though nothing has changed. There are a lot of different paths forward to resuming commerce and daily life in a way that minimizes personal and community risk.
Tookieclothespin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's not total hyperbole! I saw a family biking around outside in face masks. I'm just not seeing how that is necessary in the open air with no one around. I'm willing to bet it was the mom making it happen.
KidDoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
75AG said:

And IF a vaccine is developed and proves effective (we had very little success with any coronavirus vaccine), how will it be massed produced? We currently in the US manufacture vaccine for approximately 168 million people each year: 4 million for the annual birth cohort; 4 million for adults; and roughly 160 million for influenza. To achieve herd immunity (~70%) we will need around 270 million doses. And that if it's only a 1 vaccine series. We have no where near the manufacturing capacity in the US. And if we transition current manufacturers to the novel coronavirus vaccine, what happens to the manufacturing of necessary childhood vaccines? And we haven't even discussed the 6-7 billion doses needed worldwide. Finding the vaccine is just a step. And maybe the easiest step.


With the amount of $$$$ to be made production will not be the roadblock. Also, since it is fairly harmless in most kids, I can see this being an adult vaccine for the most part.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
75AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I'm certain this vaccine will either be "sold" at cost, or given away through government mandate. That's if it's produced in this USA. What if it's China?
KidDoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
75AG said:

I'm certain this vaccine will either be "sold" at cost, or given away through government mandate. That's if it's produced in this USA. What if it's China?


Pretty big what if. What was the last vaccine invented by China?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
75AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
KidDoc said:

75AG said:

I'm certain this vaccine will either be "sold" at cost, or given away through government mandate. That's if it's produced in this USA. What if it's China?


Pretty big what if. What was the last vaccine invented by China?

Not talking about inventing. It's about production. We simply don't have manufacturing capacity right now. That certainly could change. But as you know, vaccine manufacturing facilities are very expensive operations.
Fitch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Updated with estimated active cases, i.e. known confirmed cases less those that have died or are presumed to be recovered based on days since testing. This provides a better look than just the "total confirmed" cases.



If anyone is curious how Brazos County shakes out relative to the rest of the state, here you go:



  • Green: 0-5 active cases
  • Yellow: 6-100 active cases
  • Orange: 100-200 active cases
  • Red: 200-400 active cases
  • Purple: 400-800 active cases
  • Black: 800+ active cases
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
6 new cases
0 new deaths
0 new tests
5 in the hospital

Increases in under 15, 15-19, and 40s (probably 3, 2, 1, but I'm not a statistician)

Most if not all cases are still within the Hispanic community, although "other" did increase slightly, but that might just be where they put people if ethnicity isn't available at the time the report is published.

Seems to be it is now mostly males who are getting it as the percentage keeps getting close and close to 50% each, where women used to be much higher.

77801 +2
77803 +3
77807 +1

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.10.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Aggiewife64
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KIDDOC

What is your take on the new cases of the 73 small kiddos being sick from the virus; but in a different way than older people.

It seemed like small kids were going to "escape" this sickness.

Any enlightenment on the situation.

Thank you in advance for your time.
02skiag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Not sure what you're referring to, but this thread is specific to BCS.
KidDoc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Aggiewife64 said:

KIDDOC

What is your take on the new cases of the 73 small kiddos being sick from the virus; but in a different way than older people.

It seemed like small kids were going to "escape" this sickness.

Any enlightenment on the situation.

Thank you in advance for your time.
It seems to be triggering a Kawasaki type syndrome rarely. Kawasaki is nothing new and no clear etiology has ever been found. It is not that surprising that a very long viral infection that seems to cause vessel inflammation and blood clots would trigger it. There are treatments for it such doctors just need to be on alert for it, which they always should be honestly.

I've diagnosed about 8 cases in my 20 years. Rare but it happens.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Slocum on a mobile
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Talking to a Hispanic friend on Friday, she said that the majority of her friends and family aren't taking it seriously. The idea is that COVID-19 is a "rich white people's disease". Again, not my words...

This floored me, and no wonder why the numbers are high. I'm more concerned that the numbers are a heck of a lot higher, and that a lot of folks aren't getting tested because reasons.
australopithecus robustus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
There's likely thousands if not millions more cases than reported. That reality drops the death rate% much lower.
FlyRod
How long do you want to ignore this user?
And also likely that many deaths from COVID are being uncounted or counted as something else, so % fatality rate could be higher too.
Another story likely coming is what "recovered" means as more and more data trickle in about "survivors" with major damage to organskidneys, heart, lungs, and brain it seems mostly.
australopithecus robustus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I would say that's much less likely but is a possibility.
75AG
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
australopithecus robustus said:

There's likely thousands if not millions more cases than reported. That reality drops the death rate% much lower.
It does. But damn, over 70,000 deaths an 2 months.
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FlyRod said:

And also likely that many deaths from COVID are being uncounted or counted as something else, so % fatality rate could be higher too.
Another story likely coming is what "recovered" means as more and more data trickle in about "survivors" with major damage to organskidneys, heart, lungs, and brain it seems mostly.
That's the type of negativity that's usually reserved for another part of the forum.

Yes, some people will have problems, but the vast majority will not. There have been people in their 90s and 100s who recovered and did not suffer any such after effects.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
australopithecus robustus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Yes indeed. It's terrible. The vast majority being high risk groups as I understand it.

Hopefully remdesivir along with some of the "cocktails" being tested will be viable treatment options until there's a breakthrough.
Fitch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's a fair statement nonetheless. Recovered but permanently impaired seems to be a thing with this bug.
FlyRod
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Yes, and as with so many other aspects of this disease, I'd live to see more data on its effects. It's so new we don't know what "recovered" really means. Of the (all in their 20s) folks I know who caught it, half seem to have recovered fine...two weeks of nastiness. The others are struggling with heart and lung issues.

As far as being accused of negativity, I am actually quite optimistic that answers will come sooner rather then later because medical science has progressed a lot, and so much energy and resources are focused on this.
91_Aggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
FlyRod said:

Of the (all in their 20s) folks I know who caught it, half seem to have recovered fine...two weeks of nastiness. The others are struggling with heart and lung issues.

.
Man, with only 115 confirmed recovered in all of Brazos County, there are some weird odds for you to know enough 20-somethings out of the 115 to discuss that with to come up with your anecdotal evidence.

Are you in the health field that you are able to interact with so many of the 20-somethings out of the 115 that have recovered?

FlyRod
How long do you want to ignore this user?
None of them are physically in BCS, so they are not being counted as BCS cases. Yet being A&M students, they sort of are.

No I'm not in the health field. I'm in a profession that involves interaction with a lot of students.
02skiag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Nm
Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
7 new cases
0 new deaths
0 new tests
1 person out of the hospital

Slight increase among whites, decrease among blacks, and biggest increase is still Hispanics.

Increase in under 15, 15-19, and 40s.

Back to majority of cluster related.

77801 +1
77803 +5
77808 +1

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.11.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.