B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

685,013 Views | 4780 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by trouble
dubi
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Quote:

Aside from CPAP what the hell is a vent-like device?

There was talk about using the anesthesia machines from the OR as a measure of last resort; but that would require full-time Anesthesia staff to tend to the patients. Obviously a costly solution.
KidDoc
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dubi said:

Quote:

Aside from CPAP what the hell is a vent-like device?

There was talk about using the anesthesia machines from the OR as a measure of last resort; but that would require full-time Anesthesia staff to tend to the patients. Obviously a costly solution.
Eh it is still a vent, not vent-like!

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nthomas99
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KidDoc said:

dubi said:

Quote:

Aside from CPAP what the hell is a vent-like device?

There was talk about using the anesthesia machines from the OR as a measure of last resort; but that would require full-time Anesthesia staff to tend to the patients. Obviously a costly solution.
Eh it is still a vent, not vent-like!


Not my term, so don't look at me to explain and/or defend it : ) Heard it on a presser somewhere. IIRC from the context, they were talking about CPAP.
dubi
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KidDoc said:

dubi said:

Quote:

Aside from CPAP what the hell is a vent-like device?

There was talk about using the anesthesia machines from the OR as a measure of last resort; but that would require full-time Anesthesia staff to tend to the patients. Obviously a costly solution.
Eh it is still a vent, not vent-like!


But a vent that would require a 24x7 Anesthesia provider instead of a RT like a regular vent.
Rapier108
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11 new cases
No new deaths
94 test results
1 more in the hospital

77801 +3
77803 +5
77845 +3

When it comes to demographics, looks like again, virtually all Hispanics. Percentage of cases among whites dropped, blacks dropped by 0.1%, but Hispanics increased. All of the increases were in the 15-19, 20s, and 30s age groups.

They've also now marked the majority of cases as "community spread," when yesterday most were cluster related.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.7.20.pdf

I'm starting to wonder if there was a Hispanic event which a bunch of younger people attended, and that is where it is coming from.

Edit: Because clearly my pre-caffeine grammar sucks.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
benchmark
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Rapier108 said:

I'm starting to wonder if there are a Hispanic event which a bunch of younger people attended, and that is where it is coming from.
Yessir.
nought
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benchmark said:

Rapier108 said:

I'm starting to wonder if there are a Hispanic event which a bunch of younger people attended, and that is where it is coming from.
Yessir.

Are you agreeing with the same speculation or do you have any concrete info?

If true, this is the sort of thing the health department should be telling us. It doesn't violate any sort of confidentiality to say "We have had an uptick in cases caused by a recent gathering." If anything, they can use this to support the need for social distancing.
cavscout96
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You're being rational and employing common sense. STOP! There is no room for that in considering how to (mis)inform the public!
KorbinDallas
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13 new cases 1 death

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Brazos-County-reports-18th-COVID-19-death-13-new-cases-570309741.html
Some people are like slinkies, basically useless, but still fun to watch tumble down stairs.
trouble
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Death was a hospitalized man in his 60s.
Rapier108
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To expand on it.

196 more test results (hopefully we're finally testing more, but that also means there will be more confirmed cases)

Back to majority cluster related, which seems to confirm there is a single source for many of the recent cases. I really hate to think that we have a super spreader here, but that is what it is starting to look like.

Still affecting more women then men, which is unusual. Many places it hits men more, sometimes up to 2-1.

Increase appears to be people in their 20s and 30s.

Most if not all increases appear to be in the Hispanic community based on the percentage increases and drops among other groups.

77801 +3
77803 +5
77808 +1
77840 +1
77845 +3

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.8.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
FlyRod
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The increase in Hispanic community might be a workforce cluster rather then an "event"; in my neighborhood, for example, I saw roofing crews consisting of up to 8 men, none...none wearing PPE.

But as you've previously noted, we don't have that kind of data released.
Rapier108
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FlyRod said:

The increase in Hispanic community might be a workforce cluster rather then an "event"; in my neighborhood, for example, I saw roofing crews consisting of up to 8 men, none...none wearing PPE.

But as you've previously noted, we don't have that kind of data released.
That's also possible, or at least part of it.

If this was earlier, I would say it was connected to Sanderson Farms, but that was long enough ago where it probably isn't.

The two things that makes me think an event is the quick increase in number of daily cases and ages being affected. To me that says a lot of people were exposed in a very short amount of time, if not all at once. Also, since right now almost all of the cases appear to be people under 40, and especially 15-29, that is more in line with some kind of gathering/party/event happening.

I might be wrong, but I'm just applying everything I learned about analyzing data while doing research for graduate school.

I just wish someone in our local media would ask about stuff like this, but they won't, and if by one of them decided to commit a random act of journalism, the BCHD would answer with a whole lot of nothing.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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Random act of journalism
Rapier108
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trouble said:

Random act of journalism
I wish I could take credit for that, but I stole it from Rush Limbaugh who coined the phrase years ago.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
gunan01
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Looks like they tested 169 people at the Expo center yesterday for some reason?
MiMi
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S
Quote:

Looks like they tested 169 people at the Expo center yesterday for some reason?

Brazos County hosts mobile COVID-19 testing center
rsa
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benchmark said:

Rapier108 said:

I'm starting to wonder if there are a Hispanic event which a bunch of younger people attended, and that is where it is coming from.
Yessir.

Easter get togethers could be a possibility. Other areas have seen upticks from folks who celebrated the weekend with friends & family.
musicforall
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I know we are looking bad locally, but are we looking better on average for the state? Is it likely that the governor can open up things more because statewide we are trending downward as far as cases and hospitalizations and deaths? I know my family in Austin and in Dallas are not happy right now - apparently it never went down or held stable there and now took a big jump up. People visiting their elderly for Easter is the rumor. Makes me worry for Mothers Day.
MiMi
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S
If you look at the daily charts from the health department, I would say that we are not doing better locally compared to the state. The trend remains upward. We really need more details on these recent cases. Are they due to a social event or family clusters at Easter?

It will take at least another week, maybe two, to see if the re-openings that started on May 1 causes a further increase in positive cases.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.8.20.pdf
nought
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MiMi said:

If you look at the daily charts from the health department, I would say that we are not doing better locally compared to the state. The trend remains upward. We really need more details on these recent cases. Are they due to a social event or family clusters at Easter?

It will take at least another week, maybe two, to see if the re-openings that started on May 1 causes a further increase in positive cases.

http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.8.20.pdf
What do you mean "the trend remains upward"?

They post a misleading graph showing all cases. That will always trend upward and is meaningless other than if you want to know the total number of cases.

What matters is the number of new cases per day, but they stopped showing that.

The two others that matter to look at are the active cases and the number of active hospitalizations.

The latter (active hospitalizations) is showing a downward trend over the last month.

The former (active cases) has been essentially flat (with a very slight downward trend) for the last month. The last three days of double-digit cases have caused an uptick at the end, but it remains to be seen if that is truly a trend or just statistical randomness. It also can be from an increase in testing.

The health department needs to be including graphs of new cases per day and tests performed per day.
trouble
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There's going to be new cases for a long time. That was never going to stop.

Hospitalizations matter. The entire point of the shelter in place and shut down was to allow health care systems to prepare and not be overwhelmed.

I really hate that the focus on this went from flatten the curve to stay home, stay safe.
benchmark
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trouble said:

I really hate that the focus on this went from flatten the curve to stay home, stay safe.
Only superseded by the scandalous lack of contextual information from local authorities.
Rapier108
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Quote:

People visiting their elderly for Easter is the rumor. Makes me worry for Mothers Day.
Since most cases are in people under 40, it probably isn't Easter related.

The age range is what makes me think social gathering of some kind.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
australopithecus robustus
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trouble said:

There's going to be new cases for a long time. That was never going to stop.

Hospitalizations matter. The entire point of the shelter in place and shut down was to allow health care systems to prepare and not be overwhelmed.

I really hate that the focus on this went from flatten the curve to stay home, stay safe.


Well said and summed up to be sure. Health care has had going on two months now (at least since mandatory closings of businesses). The world needs to open back up and go on. It's no pleasure cruise but society is going to unravel if it doesn't.
AggieBaseball06
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Easter was 4 weeks ago. This isn't from Easter.
dubi
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trouble said:

There's going to be new cases for a long time. That was never going to stop.

Hospitalizations matter. The entire point of the shelter in place and shut down was to allow health care systems to prepare and not be overwhelmed.

I really hate that the focus on this went from flatten the curve to stay home, stay safe.
Like Trouble, I just want to see hospitalizations and death statistics.

Hearing "there were 10 new cases today" is just stupid. Lots of new cases is good when they are young. Herd immunity! Old folks and the health compromised still need to be careful.

Lots of folks are long over the bull**** scare tactics and we have resumed our normal lives.
Fitch
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Hospitalizations and death statistics are more meaningful statistics than just case positives, but the picture is incomplete without the number of recovered and disabled. Those that recover but walk away with permanent lung, liver or kidney damage don't get any press -- for that reason alone an increase in overall cases is something to take note of. No reason to live in fear, but people should be smart about how they go about things.
FlyRod
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This. The public health folks I'm in contact with are talking more and more about the long term issues affecting people who have "recovered," including dialysis.

We are still in the front end of this, and learning that many "recovered," are in fact, not. We still don't know so much about this virus, and yet we're assuming so much as well.
musicforall
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Where are those charts from? That is disheartening. Looks like the folks (like me) who thought we were doing "better" were mistaken - I believed the wishful thinkers. My kids wanted to go to the pool. Uh, no.

Rethinking Mothers Day, for sure. That would be a crummy gift.

I did hear that people of all ages are recovering but then dying suddenly two weeks later. Are they included as a CV death? The only one I sort of know about, the answer was no, but the family believes she did die because of the virus, just somehow delayed.
isitjustme
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musicforall said:

Where are those charts from? That is disheartening. Looks like the folks (like me) who thought we were doing "better" were mistaken - I believed the wishful thinkers. My kids wanted to go to the pool. Uh, no.

Rethinking Mothers Day, for sure. That would be a crummy gift.

I did hear that people of all ages are recovering but then dying suddenly two weeks later. Are they included as a CV death? The only one I sort of know about, the answer was no, but the family believes she did die because of the virus, just somehow delayed.
We were doing better. Over 6 weeks time, the weekly daily avg grew from about 1 case/day to about 7/day for a couple of weeks then shrank back to 1/day. Now we have a cluster(s)-related spike in the Hispanic community, mainly in North Bryan/Brazos County. I'm about as personally concerned about this cluster as I was about the Watercrest cluster.

I do hope that those in the cluster area begin to understand what they're into and take steps to start to minimize the spread among their population. That's going to take a lot of outreach by the health district, medical professionals, and their community leaders. Let's hope for their sake the growth in their cluster cases wane, and for everyone's sake that new clusters and community cases don't take off.
KidDoc
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Enough with the day to day hand wringing over cases that likely were exposed 7-10 days ago. This virus is here to stay. The purpose of the shutdown was to allow the development of testing and build up PPE so hospitals were not over-run. Mission accomplished.

Mask, hand wash, take your vitamins, get good sleep. If you are high risk and can do it then shelter as best you can. It sucks.

When or if a vaccine is made then things will be pretty much back to normal. Until then we have to learn to live with the risk and take reasonable precautions.

(rant over)
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
trouble
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You're my favorite.
australopithecus robustus
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KidDoc said:

Enough with the day to day hand wringing over cases that likely were exposed 7-10 days ago. This virus is here to stay. The purpose of the shutdown was to allow the development of testing and build up PPE so hospitals were not over-run. Mission accomplished.

Mask, hand wash, take your vitamins, get good sleep. If you are high risk and can do it then shelter as best you can. It sucks.

When or if a vaccine is made then things will be pretty much back to normal. Until then we have to learn to live with the risk and take reasonable precautions.

(rant over)


KidDoc gets the Voice of Reason VIP Prize for pragmatism!
Aggie
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dubi said:


Lots of folks are long over the bull**** scare tactics and we have resumed our normal lives.


Local and state officials need to let us return 100% to normal lives.. it's time.
At this point it's beyond ridiculous to keep businesses closed / or 25% capacity.
Most restaurants can not operate at 25%.

This thing was never as bad as predicted, it's not magically going away... time to return to normal way of life.

 
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