ChoppinDs40 said:

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ChipFTAC01 said:

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College kids on a ski trip don't need to be drinking fancy whiskey with fancy food. They need to be slamming down Busch light and doing Jaeger bombs.

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The one's going to Park City sure as hell do.

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My thought exactly!!

when we were college kids the beer plan was the only way we could go!! Had to go somewhere we could drive to to make it cheap to get there, then bring an air mattress and cram 8 people in space for 4!!

Going to park city ain't that!!!

There are 5 - 10 acre lots but that's on the high side on Log Hill. Most are more like 2-5 on average.

Telluride is opneing a bunch of additional lifts this weekend, for whatever that's worth...

We're buying a place in Bariloche. Totally stoked to have a place to ski in the winter.

New Numbers out. If You follow the GFS it this one:

Telly: 15 over 10 (should help keep them at about 105-110% of average) so like a 56% percentile season (average to just above average)
Vail/BC: 15 over 10 (Vail at like 59% and BC at 63% percentile)
SS: 21 (should but them at about 50% percentile)
Snowmass: 11 (should out them at about 55%)
Purg: 10 (should out them 100-105% so like 55%)
Keystone/Breck: 7 (should put Keystone at about 45% and Breck at 105% so like 53%)
WC: 5 (likely to be at around 85% so like 43%)

Soo should be nice at Vail/BC/Telly/Purg

Keystone and WC will keep dropping against the average with those Numbers. WC will be struggling the most.

Just to put it in perspective, WC has had about 96 inches from September - Today. AVERAGE year that Number is about 140 inches that this point. So, they're about 4 Ft below average.

Moral of the story: outside of Monarch, it's a very average to slightly below season thus far. It started super hot but has really flat lined. They snow next week is badly needed. Then another 12-20 inch roller the next week or 2 would be huge. Fingers crossed.

If you think the ECMWF is correct then it's 1/4 to 1/3 of the GFS. If ECMWF is correct, CO and UT will be STRUGGLING come January.

Not sure I've seen that dicotomia in a forecast in a long long time.

New ski day today on the hill: QST Blank. 186 @ 112 underfoot, Shifts mounted +1. True PNW test on rain soaked chop. Miserable conditions, but at least I'm not in the office.

All my other rockered skis are detuned, but I plan to leave tips/shovels sharp for now. I'll gummy if needed.

trip98 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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ChipFTAC01 said:

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College kids on a ski trip don't need to be drinking fancy whiskey with fancy food. They need to be slamming down Busch light and doing Jaeger bombs.

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The one's going to Park City sure as hell do.

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My thought exactly!!

when we were college kids the beer plan was the only way we could go!! Had to go somewhere we could drive to to make it cheap to get there, then bring an air mattress and cram 8 people in space for 4!!

Going to park city ain't that!!!

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You also have to import your brews into UT. <5% ABV law = booooo!

Come on January snow! Need it by the 21st!

Need quite a bit at Park city! Thankfully it looks like there is snow seven out of the next 10 days.

Another boot question: with the family in Steamboat for a few days & based on the recs here I went down 1 mondo size from what I measured. After the first full day on the hill, I found that there was a lot of pressure on the balls of my feet. Is this normal? Could it have been worse than expected because we spent a lot of time trailing the instructor & the kids going pretty slow and not as much getting downhill?

Factory liner?

Liners always pack in over time, even with a heat mold. Usually it's 3-5 days of hell. Anything persistent will need more diagnosing. Bottom of your foot: did you mold some inserts? Both feet hurt? What snow and how did you ski today?

Unfortunately, all factors.

Edit: Ahh, did you pizza all day behind an instructor? If so, that will always hurt everything. Point still stands, tight liners need a seasoning period. They'll pack in and support you eventually.

Yes, it's a rental setup. Rossignol 265's. The footbed is snug but not terrible. We were on the groomers all day. Got the kids another private lesson tomorrow AM, so the wife and I can get a little more vertical

We're just getting into skiing as a family (it had been 20 years since I had been before this spring), so I'm thinking of taking the plunge on a good pair of boots and maybe even some zip fit liners since it's looking like this could be an annual trip

ChoppinDs40 said:

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MAS444 said:

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Roughly 42k. I'm sure you know this....but there are so many different factors that affect that value of lots up there. Utilities and access are obviosuly huge, but most of the stuff on Log Hill has good access and utilities to lot line. But views are huge - and one of our primary criteria. 2 lots next door to each other could have totally different, or nonexistent, views. Some things that I loved about ours were it's "end of road," views of Sneffels and Cimmarons from ground, surrounded by a canyon on 2 sides and large, mature Ponderosa pines.

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yup. I've looked at lots of lots over in South Fork. Wish I'd pulled the trigger 3 years ago because they've doubled in price/acre. People flipping them now.

Utilities is a big one to consider. $42k doesn't sound too bad with good access. Decent sized lots over there? (5-10?)

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I saw your post on the Job forum today. We need to connect.

I was a CIVE, but I've been in M&A since b-school a decade ago. Consulting: EYP > S&. Ideal exit is a PortCo gig - remote so I can ski between calls. Hook a brotha up!

cp2011 said:

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Yes, it's a rental setup. Rossignol 265's. The footbed is snug but not terrible. We were on the groomers all day. Got the kids another private lesson tomorrow AM, so the wife and I can get a little more vertical

We're just getting into skiing as a family (it had been 20 years since I had been before this spring), so I'm thinking of taking the plunge on a good pair of boots and maybe even some zip fit liners since it's looking like this could be an annual trip

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Ahh, rentals!

Not comparable to a boot fitting. They'll heat mold the liners and give you a custom liner insole. That insole will last you a lifetime and you can swap between boots. But dialing takes time. The liners need to pack in before you know the true fit. Then maybe some shell work for any pressure points that linger. All in, 10 or so days of hard skiing to really get it right.

I'm the ZipFit guy and I'll die on this hill. But it's an investment near the cost of boots and skis themselves. I adore mine and ski 50 days a year in comfort with them.

I'll always tell to you to do it. Investment makes you go; and go makes more memories with the fam. We pay stupid money for our 6 year old to rip the mountain and I'd do it again. Wife and I scrolled our '24 photo album highlights at dinner tonight and 75% were on the mountain.

RangerRick9211 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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MAS444 said:

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Roughly 42k. I'm sure you know this....but there are so many different factors that affect that value of lots up there. Utilities and access are obviosuly huge, but most of the stuff on Log Hill has good access and utilities to lot line. But views are huge - and one of our primary criteria. 2 lots next door to each other could have totally different, or nonexistent, views. Some things that I loved about ours were it's "end of road," views of Sneffels and Cimmarons from ground, surrounded by a canyon on 2 sides and large, mature Ponderosa pines.

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yup. I've looked at lots of lots over in South Fork. Wish I'd pulled the trigger 3 years ago because they've doubled in price/acre. People flipping them now.

Utilities is a big one to consider. $42k doesn't sound too bad with good access. Decent sized lots over there? (5-10?)

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I saw your post on the Job forum today. We need to connect.

I was a CIVE, but I've been in M&A since b-school a decade ago. Consulting: EYP > S&. Ideal exit is a PortCo gig - remote so I can ski between calls. Hook a brotha up!

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Portco csuite gig isn't for the ski during the week lifestyle - at least not a bootstrap PE portco CFO.

How I wish it was but it's easily a 60/hr week grind right meow.

Would be happy to connect. The firm I'm at/about to be formerly at, is actively recruiting my replacement and looking to add another finance operating partner. Rub is, they have to be Dallas based because in-office is required. Big culture shop over there… and it works for them. Massive returns and one of the fastest growing most successful PE firms in Dallas.

I would 100% recommend trying zip fits before buying.

Best setup for skiing is remote accounting and renting a place in the mountains that includes electric and parking and sell your parking when you arent there and bitcoin mine w the free electric. For the accounting, You can work from the chair lifts and gondolas and if you get busy just keep your laptop in the car and knock out reconciliations etc during lunch. All you have to do is get your work done. While you're doing that, your miners are plugging away making you a decent daily return. Easy way to ski 5+ days a week w little to no stress.

Rain Snow Mix expected at Park City tomorrow/Monday and next Sunday. High is 42 and sunny Today and then 35 and 37 tomorrow and next Sunday. Woof.

Rain Snow Mix expected at JH next weekend.

Otherwise forecast for next week has mellowed. Now looks like between 5-10 for the State. SS should pick up around 14-15 but may catch some rain at the base. Vail and BC are expecting 11-12. Breck is expecting around 6 and Keystone 5. Keystone now at 82%. WC down to 84%. Everything else is melting back towards the average. Over all the State needs at least a foot or two in most places. Anything that's going to open over the next 10 days will be mostly fake base without mother nature helping. Better than 42 and Sun or 37 and rain.

Good news: JH has moved from 53% snow pack to 81% snow pack in a week and has more expected before the rain.

Bad News: Park City is now at 49% w the high today at 42 degrees w full sun a high tomorrow of 35 and a high Tuesday of 39 and sunny before snowing Tuesday night. They are actually closing terrain. They're down to 15% open. 7:1 Snow to Liquid ratio is about a half step above rain and then the next week the SLR is 5:1. Thats as wet and heavy as you get.

The snow / rain floor is supposed to be around 7500-7900 ft this weekend (Base is 6800). So that's a bad draw for the bottom of the hill and town. Next Sunday It's 8400 so the bottom 45% of the skiable terrain will be under the snow floor.

Park City is now recording the worst SME at this point over the last 40 years. Officially now in the 0%.

https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdb/site-plots/POR/WTEQ/UT/Thaynes%20Canyon.html

I hate to say it but it may be time to rethink UT if you have the ability to switch or cancel w a refund. These #s are BAD.

Here are the terrain Stats:

Cndor: 100% closed
Bonanza McConk Pio - Bonanza Home Run Muckers (that's it and all man made groomed)
Iron Mountain: Cascade & Chrome Alley & White Pine (all else closed)
Jupiter: Closed
King Kong: Closed

OBX/Saddle/Sun Peak: Hidden Bear, Mellow Moose, Sweat Pea, UP Main, Boomer, Echo, Flume, Koko, Main Line, Paint Horse, Pine Draw, Raptor, Snow Dancer, TOF,
Willow Draw, Xtc, Pines

$$$ Day: 1/4, Bonanza, FTR, Homerun, Turtle Trail, UFT,
Divided, Silver & Treasure Hollow, widow mkr, waterfall, 3 kings.

Peak 5/9990/Tombstone: Another World, Chicane, Red Pine

5/Dreamscape/Dreamcatcher: Closed

Silverload/Thaynes/Motherload: claimjumper, assessment, detonador, Hidden splendor, Mel alley,
Parkley park, powder King, short fuse


So yeah not alot open and alot of skiing the same peak and over top each other. Thats REALLY dangerous and the base will probably be even lower next week.



Edit to add: they actually now at 14% they closed more terrain this afternoon.

Thursday at 5pm the base was 22.38 right now it's 21.51 and dropping. So it's losing about 2% of the base a day. Hopefully tomorrow at least puts a stop to the melt. If not it could be at ~20 by the wednesdays storm.

Bad news: the New York Times had an article about Schweitzer today.

Sunlight in GWS is apparently up for sale and a memorndum of understanding has been completed they just need to finalize the deal. The buyers are a group of ex-Vail/Mammoth CA mountain ops guys that have made a ton developing The Valley and around the State and want a place to play to play around. What I've seen is they plan to make some huge up grades to the snow making capabilities and terrain parks and turn it into the World/Nations premier ski bike training facility like Woodward has done at Copper and elsewhere w the agreement that remainder of the terrain become a ski only, locals only ski club. So a revolving ski bike camp w the remainder of the hill restricted to Garfield and Pitkin locals w a valid DL from inside the County. If you're a second or third homeowner with an out of Valley License or a local with an out of state or Valley License, you won't be eligible to purchase a pass. They're supposedly going to use Sheer ID to validate Compliance like Aspen currently does w their locals only pass. From the platte they're Mapping 3-4 terrain parks and mltiple races courses along w a expert only guided skiing through the chutes. I would be thrilled if this materializes. Passes would be somewhere in the $3,000 a season range but that includes parking, lockers, guides, and guest access for full members. It's a steep price but probably well worth it.

I've always wondered how long they would holdout as the owners don't vibe w Vail or Aspen and SSR always felt like it lost of a ton of money but that the owners never were in it for the money. Sounds like they wanted a place to play and make money while insulated from crowds w the selling party focused on locals to losing access and having to choose between aspen and Vail who they disdain.

Heard this from one of the minority owners that lives in GWS. If this happens, he's going to make an absolute fortune. I'm Very familiar w the potential purchesors so comfortable sharing.

In the summer its slated to be a private BMX and Motocross Training track one part and a Day/Season pass course on the non profesional portion. The owners are very close friends with the Tomac's and the Deegans so that would make sense plus they live and train together in Cortez in SW CO and the area has alot of BMx and moto riders. So you add all of that together and it could be a huge draw for younger rider and people from across the country. The Vail guy that's buying it already has a private track outside Gypsum that he uses and rents that is absolutely insane so I think he's seen how well that's done and decided to expand that Venture.

He also HELLA shreds so he's hella not a Rob Katz that skis in jeans. I actually think he may be in the 100/100 ski club which is 100mph downhill and 100m ski jump. Thats my dream so can't be mad at him wanting a place where he gets to winnow access. I've felt like an extreme Sports mountain would always do well and this kinda sounds like it's that hybrid.

You think Park City is doomed for mid March skiing? That seems a long ways away.

Naw. UT picks up in clumps. Usually those really hit in January.

I wouldn't want to be there now. They're getting snow this week and next so that's good, but with whats open and whats coming and the temps it's not enough to want to be there in the next couple of weeks IMO. Now if after this storm they get enough to open to around 50% and then pickup another 20+ inches, yeah id go. Right now that doesn't look likely but you never know.

If after this set (the 1/6 GFS) it goes back dry and traces back to the basement over the last 40, then id start to worry.

Just to put it in perspective:

The dry line keeps being on top of the UT hills. Literally they're the boundary. If it moved just a little bit east, they're good.

Jackson Hole was in space but last week picked went from 51% of average base to 81% with 3+ ft of snow and another 2ft expected over 10.

There's ALOT of moisture up there it's just dying as it moves east over UT.

The ones id be REALLY worried about right now are Wolf Creek (crazy honestly they get the most snow in CO so this is mind blowing - AT LEAST the SUMMIT has a 36 inch base so you can find snow but if that goes to anything under 30 watch out), Taos (type horrible la niña year), and Angelfire (23 inch base which isn't too bad actually but they needs a refill big time).

I'm worried about those because they have almost nothing in the forecast. WC has 5 over 10 and NM has 2-5 over 10. UT is at least picking up snow, these guys are treading water at best so everyday they're dropping further behind. Granted they arent at 49% of their average, but if UT get snow and move up into the mid 60s or 70s (probs a low 30 base) and open more terrain so you can catch rope drops, I'd much rather be on that over a hill that's at 80% that hasn't received more than 5-10 inches in a month and a half. Taos is already down to 61% w a 17 inch base. Their snow pack has basically been in melt off since Thanksgiving. I'm not sure ive ever seen a negative slope for their december snowpack. They're been slammed w some really warm weather. That should change over the next 10 so that's at least good. If it's not gonna snow at least be cold.

DEF a good year to buy insurance on your rentals and take out rocks skis if you're an owner in UT CO or NM.

ChoppinDs40 said:

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RangerRick9211 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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MAS444 said:

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Roughly 42k. I'm sure you know this....but there are so many different factors that affect that value of lots up there. Utilities and access are obviosuly huge, but most of the stuff on Log Hill has good access and utilities to lot line. But views are huge - and one of our primary criteria. 2 lots next door to each other could have totally different, or nonexistent, views. Some things that I loved about ours were it's "end of road," views of Sneffels and Cimmarons from ground, surrounded by a canyon on 2 sides and large, mature Ponderosa pines.

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yup. I've looked at lots of lots over in South Fork. Wish I'd pulled the trigger 3 years ago because they've doubled in price/acre. People flipping them now.

Utilities is a big one to consider. $42k doesn't sound too bad with good access. Decent sized lots over there? (5-10?)

---

I saw your post on the Job forum today. We need to connect.

I was a CIVE, but I've been in M&A since b-school a decade ago. Consulting: EYP > S&. Ideal exit is a PortCo gig - remote so I can ski between calls. Hook a brotha up!

---

Portco csuite gig isn't for the ski during the week lifestyle - at least not a bootstrap PE portco CFO.

How I wish it was but it's easily a 60/hr week grind right meow.

Would be happy to connect. The firm I'm at/about to be formerly at, is actively recruiting my replacement and looking to add another finance operating partner. Rub is, they have to be Dallas based because in-office is required. Big culture shop over there… and it works for them. Massive returns and one of the fastest growing most successful PE firms in Dallas.

---

We're never going back to TX. But I'll still DM you details. Always nice to meet someone new in the industry.

Good luck in the new role. I keep bouncing Big 4s to stay in the Manager/Director gig - never promote; eventually get counseled out; layer between PPMD and myself to filter BS; client BS I get to push down to the team. Middle management for the absolute hobby win. I barely travel anymore, work EST from PST, and I make plenty; criminally plenty considering the effort.

RangerRick9211 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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RangerRick9211 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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MAS444 said:

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Roughly 42k. I'm sure you know this....but there are so many different factors that affect that value of lots up there. Utilities and access are obviosuly huge, but most of the stuff on Log Hill has good access and utilities to lot line. But views are huge - and one of our primary criteria. 2 lots next door to each other could have totally different, or nonexistent, views. Some things that I loved about ours were it's "end of road," views of Sneffels and Cimmarons from ground, surrounded by a canyon on 2 sides and large, mature Ponderosa pines.

---

yup. I've looked at lots of lots over in South Fork. Wish I'd pulled the trigger 3 years ago because they've doubled in price/acre. People flipping them now.

Utilities is a big one to consider. $42k doesn't sound too bad with good access. Decent sized lots over there? (5-10?)

---

I saw your post on the Job forum today. We need to connect.

I was a CIVE, but I've been in M&A since b-school a decade ago. Consulting: EYP > S&. Ideal exit is a PortCo gig - remote so I can ski between calls. Hook a brotha up!

---

Portco csuite gig isn't for the ski during the week lifestyle - at least not a bootstrap PE portco CFO.

How I wish it was but it's easily a 60/hr week grind right meow.

Would be happy to connect. The firm I'm at/about to be formerly at, is actively recruiting my replacement and looking to add another finance operating partner. Rub is, they have to be Dallas based because in-office is required. Big culture shop over there… and it works for them. Massive returns and one of the fastest growing most successful PE firms in Dallas.

---

We're never going back to TX. But I'll still DM you details. Always nice to meet someone new in the industry.

Good luck in the new role. I keep bouncing Big 4s to stay in the Manager/Director gig - never promote; eventually get counseled out; layer between PPMD and myself to filter BS; client BS I get to push down to the team. Middle management for the absolute hobby win. I barely travel anymore, work EST from PST, and I make plenty; criminally plenty considering the effort.

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This is exactly where I was at. I gave notice at big 6 public firm I was leaving for this PE gig the same day I found out I was making partner.

That director role is sweet. I'm still very good friends with my partner sponsor and we just facepalm at the director levels in his/my former group. There are people there making 250-275k that will never get promoted. But hey, unlimited PTO, repeatable work, mostly remote and just "try" to do some business development and you'll keep the gig.

Not to draw a line directly to you, but the ones in particular we talk about are in the Denver office. Similar reasons for lack of progress, whether intentional or not, is present in that geography. The group has since quit actively recruiting that locale.

ChoppinDs40 said:

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RangerRick9211 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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RangerRick9211 said:

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ChoppinDs40 said:

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MAS444 said:

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Roughly 42k. I'm sure you know this....but there are so many different factors that affect that value of lots up there. Utilities and access are obviosuly huge, but most of the stuff on Log Hill has good access and utilities to lot line. But views are huge - and one of our primary criteria. 2 lots next door to each other could have totally different, or nonexistent, views. Some things that I loved about ours were it's "end of road," views of Sneffels and Cimmarons from ground, surrounded by a canyon on 2 sides and large, mature Ponderosa pines.

---

yup. I've looked at lots of lots over in South Fork. Wish I'd pulled the trigger 3 years ago because they've doubled in price/acre. People flipping them now.

Utilities is a big one to consider. $42k doesn't sound too bad with good access. Decent sized lots over there? (5-10?)

---

I saw your post on the Job forum today. We need to connect.

I was a CIVE, but I've been in M&A since b-school a decade ago. Consulting: EYP > S&. Ideal exit is a PortCo gig - remote so I can ski between calls. Hook a brotha up!

---

Portco csuite gig isn't for the ski during the week lifestyle - at least not a bootstrap PE portco CFO.

How I wish it was but it's easily a 60/hr week grind right meow.

Would be happy to connect. The firm I'm at/about to be formerly at, is actively recruiting my replacement and looking to add another finance operating partner. Rub is, they have to be Dallas based because in-office is required. Big culture shop over there… and it works for them. Massive returns and one of the fastest growing most successful PE firms in Dallas.

---

We're never going back to TX. But I'll still DM you details. Always nice to meet someone new in the industry.

Good luck in the new role. I keep bouncing Big 4s to stay in the Manager/Director gig - never promote; eventually get counseled out; layer between PPMD and myself to filter BS; client BS I get to push down to the team. Middle management for the absolute hobby win. I barely travel anymore, work EST from PST, and I make plenty; criminally plenty considering the effort.

---

This is exactly where I was at. I gave notice at big 6 public firm I was leaving for this PE gig the same day I found out I was making partner.

That director role is sweet. I'm still very good friends with my partner sponsor and we just facepalm at the director levels in his/my former group. There are people there making 250-275k that will never get promoted. But hey, unlimited PTO, repeatable work, mostly remote and just "try" to do some business development and you'll keep the gig.

Not to draw a line directly to you, but the ones in particular we talk about are in the Denver office. Similar reasons for lack of progress, whether intentional or not, is present in that geography. The group has since quit actively recruiting that locale.

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The Partner I work for 90% of the time is out of DIA. We both ski and MTB a lot.

I support his BD just so I can reserve me seat ant his table and keep the gig rolling.

I'm the only M&A person out of PDX - so no pressure to office. We do collocate a quarter (normally DIA, but sometimes NYC). Client travel is starting to pick up, but it's one week a quarter right now. Life rips, the music will end at some point. As you know, up or out eventuality. Hope to be FI by then instruct or something.

Fun day at Steamboat. Could use a bit more snow but it wasn't bad. Maybe we get a decent accumulation this week.

20-24 expected

Not sure of your source, but what is it saying about Winter Park over the next week or so? My daughter is heading up there next Friday for a high school ski trip.

Forecast for CO and UT and especially WY really starting to pickup. Looks like 1ft for most of CO sans WC and 2ft in Steamboat.

34 at Jackson
25 at Soliude! AYYY
19-21 at PC but could be some rain at lower elevacin. Still that's a ft 1/2

Now we just need it to happen.

Jackson just got blasted and is about to get slammed again. Super great news for them. They will have gone from 51% to probs 105-10% in 2 weeks. Perfect Christmas Storm for GT and JH.

They are saying people had to be rescued from the gondola at Winter Park today!

Bayou City said:

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20-24 expected

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That would be welcome!

Bayou City said:

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Forecast for CO and UT and especially WY really starting to pickup. Looks like 1ft for most of CO sans WC and 2ft in Steamboat.

34 at Jackson
25 at Soliude! AYYY
19-21 at PC but could be some rain at lower elevacin. Still that's a ft 1/2

Now we just need it to happen.

Jackson just got blasted and is about to get slammed again. Super great news for them. They will have gone from 51% to probs 105-10% in 2 weeks. Perfect Christmas Storm for GT and JH.

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An update for Grand County (Winter Park) as part of these would be great

BigNastyNate said:

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They are saying people had to be rescued from the gondola at Winter Park today!

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Broke down or high winds?

ChoppinDs40 said:

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BigNastyNate said:

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They are saying people had to be rescued from the gondola at Winter Park today!

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Broke down or high winds?

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Structural member broke on The Gondola.