chris1515 said:

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Bob_Ag said:

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Increasing population and a limited supply of land. Economics are fairly simple on this one.

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But, is the population of people that want rural land AND can afford current levels also increasing?

I've thought for a long time that the "reset" has to happen sometime, just because I've struggled to see where all the future demand comes from.

And how many thousands of acres are set to turnover due to inheritance in the next 10 years? More than usual?

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Any type of recreational land within 1.5 hours of any major metro will continue to have stable or increasing demand which will likely lead to increasing prices. There will always be a steady level of people that want property to buy, but affordability will be dictated by the market. We had a large increase in price per acre this last year, but prices have already stabilized in several areas. There are still several listings that have sat for 6+ months because buyers have indicated the price is too high.

Basically, anything in the 20-80 acre range with any level of proximity to a major city will continue to be a hot commodity for the foreseeable future.

We've been passively looking around for 20-100 acres and are AMAZED when we look at our county's BIS map - HUGE swaths of parcels being bought up by companies from Massachusetts, Colorado, etc.

My friends with places midway between Houston and Austin have called me recently about the big run up in prices for 'pretty' rural land this year.

In some cases, 100+ acre places are bringing $25K+/acre, which I find is kind of astounding.

But, I guess some guy who just unloaded his phone-booth-sized house in California for $5 million and replaced it in Austin for $1 million needs some place to park his money other than those 'high-yield' CD's bringing .5% APY in a period of 6% inflation.

Heck, even those "we would like to buy your land for pennies on the dollar" form letters I get have recently begun to offer CAD value plus a buck or two compared with their usual CAD value / 3 pitch.

That said, after witnessing what happened to Houston CRE in the '80s I hesitate to say that prices can't go down.

Do folks not realize that Texas land isn't being bought by Texans?

International companies
RE conglomerates
International COUNTRIES

ETC

This ain't your daddies TX RE world.

chris1515 said:

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Bob_Ag said:

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Increasing population and a limited supply of land. Economics are fairly simple on this one.

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But, is the population of people that want rural land AND can afford current levels also increasing?

I've thought for a long time that the "reset" has to happen sometime, just because I've struggled to see where all the future demand comes from.

And how many thousands of acres are set to turnover due to inheritance in the next 10 years? More than usual?

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My opinion is that It's about the target acreage. As stated, the smaller parcels up to 100 acres will be going up. But if you are selling 1000 acres, you won't be able to command a price like that unless it's a specialty piece of some sort. I've been tentatively watching Properties in 1,000-2,000 acre range, not only are they selling for less than 2,000 an acre where I'm looking, they are on live water and theyve been on the market for 6 months or more.

What you are seeing in the smaller acreages is a direct result of people moving here with money AND covid sprawl. People realized during covid that they can make the same money remotely which means you can get out of the city but still maintain proximity for infrastructure that allows for remote work. That makes the price high alone but also figure in the demand.

My suggestion for anyone going for 100 acre pieces or smaller is to figure out how to make more money to afford it rather than wait for the bottom to fall out.

Either that or keep moving west until you can afford what you want now.

TikkaShooter said:

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Do folks not realize that Texas land isn't being bought by Texans?

International companies
RE conglomerates
International COUNTRIES

ETC

This ain't your daddies TX RE world.

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Sweet. This is an easy problem to settle. Dual property taxes based on residency. Let out of staters pay the majority of property taxes.

I think the key to any reset is the banking situation. From '81 to '83 I was dealing in Kerr County land, 250-900 acres and prices had crept up to $4000 an acre. That was an astounding price at the time but people were buying/selling. By '86-'87 the same land was going for $900 an acre with no takers. The S&L crisis and collapse of credit availability changed the whole game for a few years. So, my thinking is you need to look at the banks and decide if they can sustain themselves now, or if they are going to go through their own reset as an industry. If you think there is a banking and USD crisis on the horizon hold off for a few years and pick something up in the aftermath. If not, move right now, price no concern.

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Sweet. This is an easy problem to settle. Dual property taxes based on residency. Let out of staters pay the majority of property taxes.

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More regulation. Just what the world needs

:/

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What you are seeing in the smaller acreages is a direct result of people moving here with money AND covid sprawl

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I recently heard of two families that moved out to the country during COVID and are now looking to move closer to the city. Not everyone can deal with the lack of entertainment and the loneliness of being isolated. Hopefully this is a trend.

I think some out-of-staters buy into the Hollywood and "Texas Monthly" version of rural Texas and find out that our rural areas are a lot more poor, trashy, or elderly than they thought. Time will tell.

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our rural areas are a lot more poor, trashy, or elderly than they thought.

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"Hey, now"
-rural Texan

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Sweet. This is an easy problem to settle. Dual property taxes based on residency. Let out of staters pay the majority of property taxes.

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Aren't most of the big tracts Ag Exempt? Pennies on the dollar. Now... if you have to be a resident to get an Ag Exemption that's a regulation I could get behind.

schwack schwack said:

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Sweet. This is an easy problem to settle. Dual property taxes based on residency. Let out of staters pay the majority of property taxes.

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Aren't most of the big tracts Ag Exempt? Pennies on the dollar. Now... if you have to be a resident to get an Ag Exemption that's a regulation I could get behind.

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Most of the small parcels are ag exempt too. They just carve out the homes.

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Most of the small parcels are ag exempt too. They just carve out the homes.

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Is it 20+ acres to get the exemption?

I believe it's generally 10 acres. Timber is higher. Some counties have use/density requirements.

Yep, here in tree covered East TX - it's 20+ w/ a timber management plan.

schwack schwack said:

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How do y'all feel about pipeline/power easements? Deal breakers?

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I would rather be crossed by an underground pipeline than a high power line.

TAM85 said:

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schwack schwack said:

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How do y'all feel about pipeline/power easements? Deal breakers?

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I would rather be crossed by an underground pipeline than a high power line.

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ditto for mineral development/production when I don't own a share

txrancher69 said:

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I think the key to any reset is the banking situation. From '81 to '83 I was dealing in Kerr County land, 250-900 acres and prices had crept up to $4000 an acre. That was an astounding price at the time but people were buying/selling. By '86-'87 the same land was going for $900 an acre with no takers. The S&L crisis and collapse of credit availability changed the whole game for a few years. So, my thinking is you need to look at the banks and decide if they can sustain themselves now, or if they are going to go through their own reset as an industry. If you think there is a banking and USD crisis on the horizon hold off for a few years and pick something up in the aftermath. If not, move right now, price no concern.

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And now that same land will go for as much as 18K an acre!

Bough land in the hill country the exact time this thread was made and I'm happy I did.

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I've been tentatively watching Properties in 1,000-2,000 acre range, not only are they selling for less than 2,000 an acre where I'm looking, they are on live water and theyve been on the market for 6 months or more.

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Man, I'd like to know where this was... prices are pretty damn high for 1000+ acre places anywhere east of the hill country, since there aren't many on the market. Must be some place where 1000 acres doesn't move the needle much.