rbcs_2 said:

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I would still guess that QB has a similar hit rate in the 3rd round as every position.

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Yep, saw an article last year referencing the hit rate by position as the rounds go on...I will have to try and look it up...talked about first round hit rate overall and how many of those drafted in the first round don't get their 5th year option or new deal, I was surprised.

*by new deal for the first rounders, it is by their team that drafted them.

Right, so if Mills sucks, it actually helps us get better odds at finding a good replacement.

This organization is in position to take chances. We had a top 5 QB and still finished with the third worst record. Taking a chance on Mills is worth a 3rd, in my opinion.

Texan_Aggie said:

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Right, so if Mills sucks, it actually helps us get better odds at finding a good replacement.

This organization is in position to take chances. We had a top 5 QB and still finished with the third worst record. Taking a chance on Mills is worth a 3rd, in my opinion.

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I would agree with this if I thought they were truly going to take a chance on him and give him a legit chance to win the job. What I think will actually happen is he'll ride the pine for somewhere between 6-10 weeks while Tyrod Taylor starts. He'll then be given the remainder of the starts but between him being a rookie and this team being terrible, he won't look particularly good. In the meantime, some college QB will have a breakout year and will be all the rage going into the draft. The Texans will take him and he will then be crowned the heir apparent. At that point, Mills will no longer be given a fair shake at winning the job.

Mills has a decent upside from a lot of the breakdown I have seen. I'm not sure it matters long term. The point of this draft was to roll the dice on high potential guys. They're setting up for a few years of cellar dwelling so pretty much every pick here has a high ceiling and no real cap hit long term. It makes sense.

Quote:

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I would agree with this if I thought they were truly going to take a chance on him and give him a legit chance to win the job. What I think will actually happen is he'll ride the pine for somewhere between 6-10 weeks while Tyrod Taylor starts. He'll then be given the remainder of the starts but between him being a rookie and this team being terrible, he won't look particularly good. In the meantime, some college QB will have a breakout year and will be all the rage going into the draft. The Texans will take him and he will then be crowned the heir apparent. At that point, Mills will no longer be given a fair shake at winning the job.

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I think there is a very real chance that happens. It's also possible they like him enough after this coming season that they don't feel they need to take a QB.

I believe that the Texans drafted the highest rated player on their board in Mills. Many others view it as a response to the Deshaun situation. I hope it isn't, because that's a poor approach to the draft.

I suppose I am just an optimist. After all, I'm still hanging around this damn thread for some reason.

I'm Seinfeld returning the jacket at this point. I'm only here out of spite.

This has been my sentiment on their draft and while I understand people don't like the draft, I do believe it was a draft of potential high end success and if it fails, no big deal. This rebuild is a 2+ process and really given what is going on with Watson, they were f***ed regardless.

JCA1 said:

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Texan_Aggie said:

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Right, so if Mills sucks, it actually helps us get better odds at finding a good replacement.

This organization is in position to take chances. We had a top 5 QB and still finished with the third worst record. Taking a chance on Mills is worth a 3rd, in my opinion.

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I would agree with this if I thought they were truly going to take a chance on him and give him a legit chance to win the job. What I think will actually happen is he'll ride the pine for somewhere between 6-10 weeks while Tyrod Taylor starts. He'll then be given the remainder of the starts but between him being a rookie and this team being terrible, he won't look particularly good. In the meantime, some college QB will have a breakout year and will be all the rage going into the draft. The Texans will take him and he will then be crowned the heir apparent. At that point, Mills will no longer be given a fair shake at winning the job.

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And that's my point, he's a cheap backup, at least.

Something tells me, though, Caserio will not take a QB with a 1st unless he is absolutely sold he's the future franchise qb. I could see the team loading up on other talent ala best player availale and just waiting to find that final piece (QB).

Too many teams reach on bad QBs early in the draft.

Texan_Aggie said:

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JCA1 said:

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Texan_Aggie said:

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Right, so if Mills sucks, it actually helps us get better odds at finding a good replacement.

This organization is in position to take chances. We had a top 5 QB and still finished with the third worst record. Taking a chance on Mills is worth a 3rd, in my opinion.

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I would agree with this if I thought they were truly going to take a chance on him and give him a legit chance to win the job. What I think will actually happen is he'll ride the pine for somewhere between 6-10 weeks while Tyrod Taylor starts. He'll then be given the remainder of the starts but between him being a rookie and this team being terrible, he won't look particularly good. In the meantime, some college QB will have a breakout year and will be all the rage going into the draft. The Texans will take him and he will then be crowned the heir apparent. At that point, Mills will no longer be given a fair shake at winning the job.

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And that's my point, he's a cheap backup, at least.

Something tells me, though, Caserio will not take a QB with a 1st unless he is absolutely sold he's the future franchise qb. I could see the team loading up on other talent ala best player availale and just waiting to find that final piece (QB).

Too many teams reach on bad QBs early in the draft.

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As I've said before, if Caserio targeted a backup QB with his 1st ever pick, he needs to be fired. Backup QB shouldn't even be a consideration, much less take up valuable resources.

QBs are always a crapshoot, but historically, the good ones go in the first round. Trying to build a team around getting lucky on a QB is a recipe for disaster.

JCA1 said:

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Texan_Aggie said:

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JCA1 said:

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Texan_Aggie said:

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Right, so if Mills sucks, it actually helps us get better odds at finding a good replacement.

This organization is in position to take chances. We had a top 5 QB and still finished with the third worst record. Taking a chance on Mills is worth a 3rd, in my opinion.

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I would agree with this if I thought they were truly going to take a chance on him and give him a legit chance to win the job. What I think will actually happen is he'll ride the pine for somewhere between 6-10 weeks while Tyrod Taylor starts. He'll then be given the remainder of the starts but between him being a rookie and this team being terrible, he won't look particularly good. In the meantime, some college QB will have a breakout year and will be all the rage going into the draft. The Texans will take him and he will then be crowned the heir apparent. At that point, Mills will no longer be given a fair shake at winning the job.

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And that's my point, he's a cheap backup, at least.

Something tells me, though, Caserio will not take a QB with a 1st unless he is absolutely sold he's the future franchise qb. I could see the team loading up on other talent ala best player availale and just waiting to find that final piece (QB).

Too many teams reach on bad QBs early in the draft.

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As I've said before, if Caserio targeted a backup QB with his 1st ever pick, he needs to be fired. Backup QB shouldn't even be a consideration, much less take up valuable resources.

QBs are always a crapshoot, but historically, the good ones go in the first round. Trying to build a team around getting lucky on a QB is a recipe for disaster.

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I don't think he's trying to get lucky on a QB. I think this years draft/FA are an anomaly. He's tried his best to turn over the roster and had the worst draft position possibly of all time. I think this year was about high upside, low cost. Throw it up against the wall and see what, if anything, sticks. He's got a 6 year contract and built-in excuses right now, why not?

Next year at this time we'll know a lot more about him. I just don't see him getting lured into drafting a Trubisky/Bortles type with a top pick, is all. He seems too objective/calculated to reach on an average QB that gets inflated by the media/hype and takes them just because he has a high draft pick, which many teams often do.

Fair comment and I hope you're right. I'm just a little more pessimistic than most.

Everyone at 610 is all up in arms about OTAs today.

Apparently media had limited access to only defense, none of the players had names on their jerseys, and the media was handed out current rosters with no numbers on them. Basically no way to tell one player from another.

Maybe I'm wearing tin foil hat too tight but to that screams we don't want you know who's here and who's not especially on the offense.

Oh yeah...And lol at the whole Patriot way everything is secret we can't let anyone know what's going on.

Ag_07 said:

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Everyone at 610 is all up in arms about OTAs today.

Apparently media had limited access to only defense, none of the players had names on their jerseys, and the media was handed out current rosters with no numbers on them. Basically no way to tell one player from another.

Maybe I'm wearing tin foil hat too tight but to that screams we don't want you know who's here and who's not especially on the offense.

Oh yeah...And lol at the whole Patriot way everything is secret we can't let anyone know what's going on.

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Offense was in the bubble...all the media had access to was what outside and that was the defense...

Edit to add: Not defending the Texans, but just for clarification.

That's the kind of stupid games that NE played and people confused with genius when Tom Brady is your QB.

Exactly...That wasn't a coincidence.

I think was A) to not let anyone see whether Deshaun was there or not (we're not dumb we all know he wasn't) and B) to protect Mills

Culley also refused to answer any Watson questions. Even the simple 'Was he here today' got the 'I've got nothing to say about Deshaun. We're not addressing that' response.

It just goes to show the tone-deafness of this entire organization. They think they're hiding all this top secret when everyone knows the truth.

Eh, what else is there to say about Watson? Like seriously...I wouldn't even ask the question as a reporter, guy is in the midst of a lawsuit in which he ALLEGEDLY did some things with massage therapist.

On the seeing a QB an offense play against air, who cares? It's OTA's, not everyone is there and any reporter or fan is wringing their hands about this is just overhyping it...again, no defense of the Texans, but we are talking about OTA's.

Are there actually people in the world who were wondering if Watson was there?

There was a better chance of a Bigfoot sighting than a Watson sighting.

Has nothing to do with his legal issues.

Maybe something along the lines of 'Deshaun has yet to show up but these are voluntary workouts. We're focused on working hard with the players we have here'.

Instead it's 'We've got nothing to say about Deshaun Watson'. It's a joke.

But you're right. They've handled all this impeccably.

Yes, but the question and the response is the only thing noteworthy of this team, right now.

We all know the question and the answer, it is lazy, but it makes headlines.

Honestly, what the hell else is the press supposed to ask that people outside of the team an immediate fans supposed to care about? There is literally nothing noteworthy about this team, right now.

Exactly.

And look we all know the answer but as a media member if it's not brought up you're not doing your job.

All I want is them to not treat everyone (media, fans, general public, etc) like they're idiots.

This organization is rebuilding and needs some good juju of any kind. Therefore to me it would make sense to open up all access, put numbers and names on your players since 50 of them are new, and show off your new toy (Mills) to the public and get some buzz going.

Instead it's all a big secret. Why? No one GAF about what schemes your running or whoa working with what group. You're gonna be DFL anyhow!!! Might as well earn some good graces and get some good vibes going.

Such a shlt show

Texans sign ex-Patriots RB Rex Burkhead https://t.co/Fu61Wk0bXh via @houstonchron

— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) June 1, 2021

I think these guys are just training camp bodies. Not guys we're hoping will be upgrades.

Something about deck chairs and the titanic comes to mind.

Gonna be running the wishbone.

Julio to Tennessee

So Julio wanted to go to a team with a big arm qb and ends up on the team that would run up the gut every snap if they could? Don't really think this does much for the Titans. The Texans weren't going to beat the Titans anyway, so this doesn't change much.

I'm not saying they are like those teams. But Tannehill is not a "big arm qb" and I don't think the Titans got materially better from this deal. If anything, the Colts are the big losers here as they probably would have benefitted more from Julio and now have to play against him twice.