Logos Stick said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Perception is reality. Liberals are very good at propaganda and messaging!

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Keep trying to sell that message. Tell people their economic hardships are not real. See how that works out at the polls.

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Poverty is down, median income at record, and wages are beating inflation. Not sure how to convince someone who is delusional that what they believe is not real.

Liberals believe men can get pregnant. /shoulder shrug

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Maybe it's because what you claim to be real is not what they are experiencing.

But who knows? Maybe you're right.

If you are, then Republicans will be rewarded with expanded majorities in the midterms. After all, if things are as rosy as you claim, then why would they vote out the party in charge? Doesn't make sense.

The voters will speak based on how they really see things, not based on CNN or FoxNews talking points. And I think anybody who's trying to be objective knows which way the votes are going in November.

Do you realize how out of touch that makes you sound? Raising kids and affording a weeks groceries is not door dash and Starbucks. You going to pull out "learn to code" and "two.more teas" next?

Ag_of_08 said:

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Do you realize how out of touch that makes you sound? Raising kids and affording a weeks groceries is not door dash and Starbucks. You going to pull out "learn to code" and "two.more teas" next?

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You forgot cutting out the Avocado toast.

Learn to code is passe because of A.I. You need to learn to weld now.

Logos Stick said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Perception is reality. Liberals are very good at propaganda and messaging!

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Keep trying to sell that message. Tell people their economic hardships are not real. See how that works out at the polls.

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Poverty is down, median income at record, and wages are beating inflation. Not sure how to convince someone who is delusional that what they believe is not real.

Liberals believe men can get pregnant. /shoulder shrug

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Your graph actually turns out to be weak sauce. When you go to FRED and pull the data, it moved from 373 in Q125 when Trump took office to 378 in Q226. That is 1.3% improvement over 15 months, or 1% annually. Even if you accept that those numbers are 100% accurate, that is "noise" that most people don't even see. And because other things in the moment like mortgage rates and gas prices going up, the "feel" factor by many people won't align with the message you're trying to sell.

This is exactly the point I've been harping on lately. Some Trump fans think if they just spin the story harder that people will wake up and see the light. That is hilariously tone-deaf. It's also sad, because I would rather Trump and team dial some realism into their message -- while still retaining some optimism about the future -- to retain as many seats as they can. But when you try to tell people something they know is not true, they dismiss you as out-of-touch and not worthy of their vote.

MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Perception is reality. Liberals are very good at propaganda and messaging!

---

Keep trying to sell that message. Tell people their economic hardships are not real. See how that works out at the polls.

---

Poverty is down, median income at record, and wages are beating inflation. Not sure how to convince someone who is delusional that what they believe is not real.

Liberals believe men can get pregnant. /shoulder shrug

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Maybe it's because what you claim to be real is not what they are experiencing.

But who knows? Maybe you're right.

If you are, then Republicans will be rewarded with expanded majorities in the midterms. After all, if things are as rosy as you claim, then why would they vote out the party in charge? Doesn't make sense.

The voters will speak based on how they really see things, not based on CNN or FoxNews talking points. And I think anybody who's trying to be objective knows which way the votes are going in November.

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I'm not disagreeing that the Rs could lose. But it wasn't a red wave in 2022 and conditions where much worse.

The gas sticker shock is the big one because people see it and feel it every day.

Logos Stick said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Perception is reality. Liberals are very good at propaganda and messaging!

---

Keep trying to sell that message. Tell people their economic hardships are not real. See how that works out at the polls.

---

Poverty is down, median income at record, and wages are beating inflation. Not sure how to convince someone who is delusional that what they believe is not real.

Liberals believe men can get pregnant. /shoulder shrug

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Maybe it's because what you claim to be real is not what they are experiencing.

But who knows? Maybe you're right.

If you are, then Republicans will be rewarded with expanded majorities in the midterms. After all, if things are as rosy as you claim, then why would they vote out the party in charge? Doesn't make sense.

The voters will speak based on how they really see things, not based on CNN or FoxNews talking points. And I think anybody who's trying to be objective knows which way the votes are going in November.

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I'm not disagreeing that the Rs could lose. But it wasn't a red wave in 2022 and conditions where much worse.

The gas sticker shock is the big one because people see it and feel it every day.

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Inflation took off in 2022 but the cumulative effects of it weren't really felt until afterwards. It's what helped pull Trump into office in 2024.The inflation rate has come down, but prices are still moving up YoY and more than the long-advertised target of 2%. I don't think he gets any street cred on inflation with the bumps he's added to it with tariffs and oil.

He could explain better why he did those things and why they are investments in a better future. He wouldn't convince everybody, but it would be better than simply dismissing those concerns as TDS.

Logos Stick said:

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On average, 20 million people are fired each year... in a NORMAL year.

Knowing people who have been fired and are unemployed in any given year is pretty normal thing.

The only thing concerning to me is that companies are not hiring new grads at the same rate because of AI - 5.6% UE versus overall of 4.2%.

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"Because of AI" is misleading.

They are not hiring new grads because they want to spend on AI infra, or are just waiting on the sidelines because of perceived risk right now (maybe waiting for Trump to leave). Not because AI is improving their processes in a very meaningful way. But corps won't say it because they lie a lot.

"getting fired". Sure. Earlier they were fired for low performance. Now they are fired to make way for Ramesh and Vijay.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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Per the BLS average hourly real wages decreased year over year compared to August 2025. The average work week increased which made up for the loss.

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What I don't believe ever gets factored into those numbers is part of what you said about OT pay, but its also that bonuses aren't included in that factor and many--even most, non-government workers--get bonus comp. Even hourly workers. Those may only pay once a year, hell, it may just be a Christmas bonus, but that's not included in the BLS stuff, at least from what I've been told.

Like my dad used to say, You'd gripe if someone hung you with a new rope.

infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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On average, 20 million people are fired each year... in a NORMAL year.

Knowing people who have been fired and are unemployed in any given year is pretty normal thing.

The only thing concerning to me is that companies are not hiring new grads at the same rate because of AI - 5.6% UE versus overall of 4.2%.

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"Because of AI" is misleading.

They are not hiring new grads because they want to spend on AI infra, or are just waiting on the sidelines because of perceived risk right now (maybe waiting for Trump to leave). Not because AI is improving their processes in a very meaningful way. But corps won't say it because they lie a lot.

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If they were doing that then productivity would be down accordingly. Ether that or every company was overstaffed to begin with. That's Two Teas level logic. That's not what is happening. They are replacing cognitive labor with AI, thus they have reduced hiring for new grads.

Bull Meachem said:

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BusterAg said:

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Bull Meachem said:

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Would the OP believe the Census Bureau if a Democrat was in office?

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Are you saying that the Census Bureau is lying about this?

I'm not afraid of calling out lying data.

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Lying is a little strong. Manipulated? Probably.

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All summaries of large sets of data are imperfect. Manipulating data to the point that it is not representative of the truth is a damn lie.

How bad do you think the data is manipulated? How are you asserting that it has been manipulated?

infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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On average, 20 million people are fired each year... in a NORMAL year.

Knowing people who have been fired and are unemployed in any given year is pretty normal thing.

The only thing concerning to me is that companies are not hiring new grads at the same rate because of AI - 5.6% UE versus overall of 4.2%.

---

"Because of AI" is misleading.

They are not hiring new grads because they want to spend on AI infra, or are just waiting on the sidelines because of perceived risk right now (maybe waiting for Trump to leave). Not because AI is improving their processes in a very meaningful way. But corps won't say it because they lie a lot.

"getting fired". Sure. Earlier they were fired for low performance. Now they are fired to make way for Ramesh and Vijay.

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Corporate earnings are up a lot more than corporate revenue over the past 12 months. Why is that?

Logos Stick said:

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infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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On average, 20 million people are fired each year... in a NORMAL year.

Knowing people who have been fired and are unemployed in any given year is pretty normal thing.

The only thing concerning to me is that companies are not hiring new grads at the same rate because of AI - 5.6% UE versus overall of 4.2%.

---

"Because of AI" is misleading.

They are not hiring new grads because they want to spend on AI infra, or are just waiting on the sidelines because of perceived risk right now (maybe waiting for Trump to leave). Not because AI is improving their processes in a very meaningful way. But corps won't say it because they lie a lot.

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If they were doing that then productivity would be down accordingly. Ether that or every company was overstaffed to begin with. That's Two Teas level logic. That's not what is happening. They are replacing cognitive labor with AI, thus they have reduced hiring for new grads.

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And to be clear, they are replacing inefficient, non-thinking cognitive labor with smart, better equipped cognitive labor, which is what is making the difference.

AI just makes smart, thinking people more efficient. It doesn't do a good job of replacing people (yet).

"Yesus Christi folks, stop picking gnat **** out of pepper."(Stolen from Clob94)

Let's go back to those successful Democratic Party leadership policies

• Inflation 10%(Biden) to 20% (Carter)
• PreCOVID unemployment under Biden @ ~7%
• Drug costs at historic high prices
• An invasion of ~20-25 MILLION ILLEGAL ALIENS. That brought in fraud, rape gangs murderers.
• Violent crime at ridiculously high rates, now at historic lows
• Loss of manufacturing jobs costing workers well paying jobs
• Reversing the trend of eliminating 129 regulations to adding 1. That's right bring on those Democratic Party inspired bull**** regulations
• Hell let's bring on single payer insurance and eliminate ALL OTHER PRIVATE INSURANCE PLANS
• Yes lets follow Maine's example and allow the teachers to transition children without the parents knowledge, then arrest the parents, kidnap the daughter and prevent the parents from seeing or talking to their daughter FOR TWO FIGGIN YEARS.

ETA links
Massachusetts took custody of daughter after parents refused to affirm gender transition pushed by school
Catholic parents fighting for custody of their trans teen whose school helped to transition without their knowledge: report
This is a short list of the insanity of the Democratic Party.

This reminds me of the gas is less than $3 spike the football thread.

MouthBQ98 said:

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And yet, we as a group will myopically put Democrats back in power to derail it all because we quickly forget what true leftist misery is like when we've had a run of prosperity.

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This is why democrats complain about issues without ever trying to fix them. People don't like what it takes to fix problems.

Republicans fix the issues they campaign on (not as much as they should, but they do) which, for example, causes people to cry about ICE raids after 70% of the population were FOR deportations.

We are a nation of fatties, a potbelly is considered normal.

What once was considered a once a month treat is now part of a daily diet.

Gluttonous behavior amongst our poor has bubbled up to mainstream.

Quote:

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We have the richest and fattest poor people in the world.

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Nothing that some democrats and GLP can't fix.

hard to be poor when the fed gov and state govs have opened the deficit spigots to pay worthless illegals and democrat voters to sit at home all day and do nothing other than procreate

MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Perception is reality. Liberals are very good at propaganda and messaging!

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Keep trying to sell that message. Tell people their economic hardships are not real. See how that works out at the polls.

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What's you solution?

MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Perception is reality. Liberals are very good at propaganda and messaging!

---

Keep trying to sell that message. Tell people their economic hardships are not real. See how that works out at the polls.

---

Poverty is down, median income at record, and wages are beating inflation. Not sure how to convince someone who is delusional that what they believe is not real.

Liberals believe men can get pregnant. /shoulder shrug

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Maybe it's because what you claim to be real is not what they are experiencing.

But who knows? Maybe you're right.

If you are, then Republicans will be rewarded with expanded majorities in the midterms. After all, if things are as rosy as you claim, then why would they vote out the party in charge? Doesn't make sense.

The voters will speak based on how they really see things, not based on CNN or FoxNews talking points. And I think anybody who's trying to be objective knows which way the votes are going in November.

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For the millionth time, the party that controls the presidency loses the house 80% of the time.

Are you saying 80% of the time things are objectively bad economically during midterms?

Or is it more likely that swing voter are notoriously fickle and easy to manipulate?

Biden and Harris used to"economic indicators " and numbers to tell people how great the economy was. When people are struggling, they don't give a rat's ass about statistics, they know what their struggles are. If Republicans are trying to sell numbers to people, they will get the same results as Democrats did in 2024. You can't tell someone that they are imagining what they see with their own eyes by giving them numbers.

BusterAg said:

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infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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On average, 20 million people are fired each year... in a NORMAL year.

Knowing people who have been fired and are unemployed in any given year is pretty normal thing.

The only thing concerning to me is that companies are not hiring new grads at the same rate because of AI - 5.6% UE versus overall of 4.2%.

---

"Because of AI" is misleading.

They are not hiring new grads because they want to spend on AI infra, or are just waiting on the sidelines because of perceived risk right now (maybe waiting for Trump to leave). Not because AI is improving their processes in a very meaningful way. But corps won't say it because they lie a lot.

"getting fired". Sure. Earlier they were fired for low performance. Now they are fired to make way for Ramesh and Vijay.

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Corporate earnings are up a lot more than corporate revenue over the past 12 months. Why is that?

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I didn't check if that is correct, but assuming it is so, there are various ways corps can show whatever they want to achieve their goals. Don't blindly believe the spiel corps put out.

Be more cynical.

infinity ag said:

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BusterAg said:

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infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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On average, 20 million people are fired each year... in a NORMAL year.

Knowing people who have been fired and are unemployed in any given year is pretty normal thing.

The only thing concerning to me is that companies are not hiring new grads at the same rate because of AI - 5.6% UE versus overall of 4.2%.

---

"Because of AI" is misleading.

They are not hiring new grads because they want to spend on AI infra, or are just waiting on the sidelines because of perceived risk right now (maybe waiting for Trump to leave). Not because AI is improving their processes in a very meaningful way. But corps won't say it because they lie a lot.

"getting fired". Sure. Earlier they were fired for low performance. Now they are fired to make way for Ramesh and Vijay.

---

Corporate earnings are up a lot more than corporate revenue over the past 12 months. Why is that?

---

I didn't check if that is correct, but assuming it is so, there are various ways corps can show whatever they want to achieve their goals. Don't blindly believe the spiel corps put out.

Be more cynical.

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1 - it is correct. Let me know if you see data that is contrary, I'm not afraid to change my understanding of that with new, reliable data.
2 - Do you think that corporations just magically all decided to start fudging earnings since AI was introduced? Earnings manipulation is a new thing?

The SG&A savings from AI is real. I see it at work in my company. It's not in the form of replacing people, but reducing the number of people that don't have to think to do their jobs with people that do think that can use AI to do the work of 4 unthinking employees. Which is a lot of them.

BusterAg said:

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infinity ag said:

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BusterAg said:

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infinity ag said:

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Logos Stick said:

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On average, 20 million people are fired each year... in a NORMAL year.

Knowing people who have been fired and are unemployed in any given year is pretty normal thing.

The only thing concerning to me is that companies are not hiring new grads at the same rate because of AI - 5.6% UE versus overall of 4.2%.

---

"Because of AI" is misleading.

They are not hiring new grads because they want to spend on AI infra, or are just waiting on the sidelines because of perceived risk right now (maybe waiting for Trump to leave). Not because AI is improving their processes in a very meaningful way. But corps won't say it because they lie a lot.

"getting fired". Sure. Earlier they were fired for low performance. Now they are fired to make way for Ramesh and Vijay.

---

Corporate earnings are up a lot more than corporate revenue over the past 12 months. Why is that?

---

I didn't check if that is correct, but assuming it is so, there are various ways corps can show whatever they want to achieve their goals. Don't blindly believe the spiel corps put out.

Be more cynical.

---

1 - it is correct. Let me know if you see data that is contrary, I'm not afraid to change my understanding of that with new, reliable data.
2 - Do you think that corporations just magically all decided to start fudging earnings since AI was introduced? Earnings manipulation is a new thing?

The SG&A savings from AI is real. I see it at work in my company. It's not in the form of replacing people, but reducing the number of people that don't have to think to do their jobs with people that do think that can use AI to do the work of 4 unthinking employees. Which is a lot of them.

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Yep. This is well known and we've discussed it quite a bit even before AI came up. AI just accelerated it regardless if one believes layoffs are due to AI or not. Goldman is projecting kickass corporate earnings going forward due to ongoing profitably focus whether that is AI or not.

Pre-COVID corporate America was all about growth (revenue). Post COVID there was a sea change to focus on profitability. You can go back and read business articles on this from 4-6 years ago and see the change in business media. I've shared my own experience with this from my F250 company before I retired during COVID. Our primary metric was revenue growth. We literally didn't even look at profitability which is stupid. I measured it on my own and would inject it wherever I could but no one cared.

After I left, and revenue tanked during COVID, profitability suddenly became important again. I've stayed in touch with my old team and all they look at now is profitability. It has completely changed how they operate. As a result, layoffs and firings are old hat. Need to increase that metric? Fire some people. Easy peasy.

You guys complaining about prices haven't seen anything yet. Without a miracle America will see inflation over 100%! We are now printing and borrowing money to pay interest on the debt. That's the doom loop of the Weimar Republic. And nobody is even talking about reducing spending!

pfo said:

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You guys complaining about prices haven't seen anything yet. Without a miracle America will see inflation over 100%! We are now printing and borrowing money to pay interest on the debt. That's the doom loop of the Weimar Republic. And nobody is even talking about reducing spending!

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Some of us have been saying this for a long time.

pfo said:

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You guys complaining about prices haven't seen anything yet. Without a miracle America will see inflation over 100%! We are now printing and borrowing money to pay interest on the debt. That's the doom loop of the Weimar Republic. And nobody is even talking about reducing spending!

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There is actually a small movement in Washington (the bi-partisan Problem Solvers Caucus) that is pushing for legislation to keep deficit spending at 3% of GDP vs the 6% that it is currently. The theory (also pushed by Buffett and likely where this group took the idea) is that maintaining it at 3% will help us over time with the debt.

Will they succeed on this legislation? Likely not but there is at least someone up there that recognizes the problem.