Paxton vs Talarico [See Staff Note in OP]

1,420,771 Views | 17060 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by schmendeler
Eliminatus
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SoulSlaveAG2005 said:

Sorta.

Paper ballot, goes into the machine dohickey… then it's touchscreen selection, then it prints out the ballot and you feed another machine scanner thingy.
Touchscreen is an upgrade from the turn wheel thingy in the past.

Ah, yeah, that's what I remember too now for CS that you mention it. I think that counts for electronic. Up here in N. Texas it was a paper ballot with a marker. Did not smell like the old Magnum markers

Then feed into scanner.

Was just curious because it was a change from '24 which was what you describe.
ErnestEndeavor
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Hart InterCivic, most likely. It's what I used the other day. Same type of deal.

All the electronic kiosk does is mark your paper ballot for you to prevent stray marks and double selections. The computer you make selections on is just a replacement for a pen/marker. Otherwise it's just like the old pen/paper ballots of the past. When your paper prints it shows who you voted for on the paper. You scan it in to the counting machine and it saves your paper ballot for review if needed.

Not sure why anyone would get rid of that type of system. It's paper voting.
Dan Scott
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Good news for you guys. I found an error in my Math.

So if you apply total votes so far reported for each county and apply the 2018 Senate Race breakdown, Paxton is winning 50.4 to 49.5

If you apply the 2024 Senate breakdown, Paxton is winning 53% to 47%

Dan Scott
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I'm looking at final outcome from 2018 and 2024.

AI was used only to make the format of the spreadsheet for me. But there was an error
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Joe Deertay
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That's what I was thinking…
Dan Scott
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That's what I'm looking at. From that county breakdown, get the cumulative votes entered. Then I applied the % split from the 2024 and 2018 Senate elections.
Rockdoc
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It's meaningless Dan. All smoke. Use my dog's red tennis ball method. 3 point Paxton win.
Dan Scott
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Was that signed off by the secretary fo state?

Of course its meaningless we don't know anything until next week. It's just guessing now.
TAMU1990
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FireAg
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TAMU1990 said:



Plenty of stuff out there showing republicans are voting

Be careful with how you read this…

That "firewall" is more indicative of Dan Patrick and, to an extent (though maybe a smidge lesser) Abbott…

That is NOT the same firewall for Paxton…it will be significantly less…

Keep an eye on the AA vote…their motivation to come out or stay home will be a major factor with who wins that Senate seat…
Tramp96
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FireAg said:

TAMU1990 said:



Plenty of stuff out there showing republicans are voting

Be careful with how you read this…

That "firewall" is more indicative of Dan Patrick and, to an extent (though maybe a smidge lesser) Abbott…

That is NOT the same firewall for Paxton…it will be significantly less…

Keep an eye on the AA vote…their motivation to come out or stay home will be a major factor with who wins that Senate seat…


People coming out to vote for Dan Patrick aren't voting for Talarico.
Dan Scott
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Its only way to do it. I don't think data is available to know what the votes were for each candidate by day historically.
Ag87H2O
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My wife and I plus five from our office just went and voted for Paxton and straight R. We are calling and encouraging all of our friends that vote Republican to remember to vote if they haven't already done so.

I encourage every Paxton supporter to do the same. That's what it will take to win.
Joe Deertay
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You were telling us that GOP is saying this is going to be good for all of the GOP… I thought that's what your sources before
FireAg
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Tramp96 said:

FireAg said:

TAMU1990 said:



Plenty of stuff out there showing republicans are voting

Be careful with how you read this…

That "firewall" is more indicative of Dan Patrick and, to an extent (though maybe a smidge lesser) Abbott…

That is NOT the same firewall for Paxton…it will be significantly less…

Keep an eye on the AA vote…their motivation to come out or stay home will be a major factor with who wins that Senate seat…


People coming out to vote for Dan Patrick aren't voting for Talarico.

I agree…but they could skip it…
Dan Scott
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That twitter guy is based in Europe. His total number is wrong, 4.417M votes so far officially reported as of today. Also there is no split in R, D, or other in the data.
Joe Deertay
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Which is why none of this matters lol if the Rs show up on vote day.. Dems are in trouble. If they don't… well you know
FireAg
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Joe Deertay said:

You were telling us that GOP is saying this is going to be good for all of the GOP… I thought that's what your sources before

I said they were saying that nationwide, they were feeling bullish on keeping the House (which sent a bunch of people into a frenzy, but that's what they were saying)…

I have never once said they felt like Paxton was going to win that seat with any significant level of comfort…

They have been concerned this whole time about the Paxton/freako contest, but they were feeling better about EV trends internally late last week… Comfortable? Not even close in that race, and I Have never said otherwise…they just liked how things were trending…

I also said that they said that Trump would be coming back to Texas this week, and Trump is coming back to Texas this week…
Who?mikejones!
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FireAg
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I also said that they said that Trump would be visiting Corpus and another spot…I said Wreck 'em as a clue…

And he's going to Corpus and lubbutt this week…
Who?mikejones!
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txags92
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No line in Bastrop County at 6:15 tonight.
Old McDonald
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*taps the sign*
Old McDonald said:

EV analysis is a fun way to pass the time, but most of the people doing it are either ****posting, rage baiting, or wishcasting.
AgDad121619
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Rockdoc said:

You're thinking talfreako is winning on the noise you've been reading? You worry too much, unless of course if he's your guy.
Dan S is among the most concerned moderates out there if you pay attention to his posts
Teslag
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Old McDonald said:

*taps the sign*
Old McDonald said:

EV analysis is a fun way to pass the time, but most of the people doing it are either ****posting, rage baiting, or wishcasting.



The lack of self awareness with this post is simply stunning.
AgDad121619
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ErnestEndeavor said:

Hart InterCivic, most likely. It's what I used the other day. Same type of deal.

All the electronic kiosk does is mark your paper ballot for you to prevent stray marks and double selections. The computer you make selections on is just a replacement for a pen/marker. Otherwise it's just like the old pen/paper ballots of the past. When your paper prints it shows who you voted for on the paper. You scan it in to the counting machine and it saves your paper ballot for review if needed.

Not sure why anyone would get rid of that type of system. It's paper voting.
and creates a traceable vote if needed
Bluto
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TAMU1990 said:





Ballsy move Trump! YUGE wildcard that JFF
TRM
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Should have taken Craig James to Lubbock.
samsal75
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Wonder if Johnny is even registered as a voter??
normalhorn
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TRM said:

Should have taken Craig James to Lubbock.


Looks like we know who supports killing hookers :-)
...take it easy on me, I'm a normal horn
BigRobSA
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FireAg said:

Be careful with how you read this…

.....

Keep an eye on the AA vote…their motivation to come out or stay home will be a major factor with who wins that Senate seat…

I doubt Elon is voting for Talarico.
oh no
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Whoop2
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In Tennessee a gal was about to put paper in and checked and it wasn't who she voted for and it happened two more times so make sure you sheet has who you voted for.
FireAg
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Whoop2 said:

In Tennessee a gal was about to put paper in and checked and it wasn't who she voted for and it happened two more times so make sure you sheet has who you voted for.

I double checked mine this morning before butting it into the tabulator…
Rapier108
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oh no said:



They keep acting like early voting is the only chance to vote.

I'm in that 318,000 and I'll vote on election day. Hit up one of the big locations about 10:30 in the morning and it will be a quick in and out. I've tried to vote early three times, each time the line was insane. Sorry, I would rather not stand in line for hours.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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