Yea he will win by 3%

I haven't gone through the data super detail, but I think right now Talarico is winning.

Trump outperformed Cruz by 600K votes in 2024. Cruz lost Tarrant, Williamson, and a lot of the border counties that Trump won. That's the Trump effect. They vote for Trump, not the R.

Without Trump on the ballot to carry the R senate candidate, it's like back in 2018 where Cruz won by 215K votes. I think Paxton is weaker than Cruz, but also think Talarico is weaker than Beto, but not as weak as Paxton is compared to Cruz.

Its going to be close. Very close.

Dan Scott said:

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I think the takeaway: DFW and Austin metros are voting. Houston and San Antonio are behind. Lots of rural counties well below the state average.

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Crazy about San Antonio other than us being fat and lazy. There are so many voting stations available that it's pretty easy to vote here early.

annie88 said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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There was the typical nose ring type in front of me at the voting line. She voted for Paxton.

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That's good to hear, but I cannot stand those disgusting nose rings. Why anyone wants to put something in their nose that looks like crap is hanging out of it is beyond me. It is the most unflattering thing. And you usually see it on the ugliest people.

How did you know she voted for Paxton?

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We were in line to scan our ballot. I peaked

I know, I know

Joe Deertay said:

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Seriously, do we think Paxton wins?

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With Dem cheating? It will be close, but hopefully the good guys win.

You're thinking talfreako is winning on the noise you've been reading? You worry too much, unless of course if he's your guy.

News: Trump is bringing three football stars — Johnny Manziel, Colt McCoy and Danny Amendola — onto the campaign trail in Texas tomorrow

The play: Turn football fans into midterm voters — especially the young men who helped Trump win in '24https://t.co/CzonDP71Na

— Alex Isenstadt (@axiosalex) October 26, 2026

Woke is losing badly. It was alive and well when Beto ran against cruz.

I hope Johnny shows

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Dan Scott said:

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I think the takeaway: DFW and Austin metros are voting. Houston and San Antonio are behind. Lots of rural counties well below the state average.

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Crazy about San Antonio other than us being fat and lazy. There are so many voting stations available that it's pretty easy to vote here early.

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You should have seen how confused my Hispanic co-worker was when he learned that Talerico wasn't Hispanic. He said the with voting for that dude …

TAMU1990 said:

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News: Trump is bringing three football stars — Johnny Manziel, Colt McCoy and Danny Amendola — onto the campaign trail in Texas tomorrow

The play: Turn football fans into midterm voters — especially the young men who helped Trump win in '24https://t.co/CzonDP71Na

— Alex Isenstadt (@axiosalex) October 26, 2026

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What's the Kalshi line on JFF showing up absolutely hammered?

Rockdoc said:

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You're thinking talfreako is winning on the noise you've been reading? You worry too much, unless of course if he's your guy.

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Based off the data, he's winning right now, meaning if the election were closed today. I only can see voting up until today. The turnout in the D senate voting counties is high and the rural counties is low.

Dan Scott said:

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Rockdoc said:

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You're thinking talfreako is winning on the noise you've been reading? You worry too much, unless of course if he's your guy.

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Based off the data, he's winning right now, meaning if the election were closed today. I only can see voting up until today. The turnout in the D senate voting counties is high and the rural counties is low.

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Dude, everything you refer to can be countered by a different polling idiot. Is Talifreako your guy?

Many Hispanics I know and associate with along the border aren't voting for Talafrecko or any other Dem. They all remember going into their local HEBs watching recent Biden arrivals loading up multiple carts with tax $$ while they got almost nothing.

Rockdoc said:

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Dan Scott said:

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Rockdoc said:

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You're thinking talfreako is winning on the noise you've been reading? You worry too much, unless of course if he's your guy.

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Based off the data, he's winning right now, meaning if the election were closed today. I only can see voting up until today. The turnout in the D senate voting counties is high and the rural counties is low.

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Dude, everything you refer to can be countered by a different polling idiot. Is Talifreako your guy?

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I'm not relying on any twitter polling guy. Like I said, too much contradicting info so I went to the secretary of state website and am looking at the data myself. Here it is.

Official Early Voting Turnout by Date - Early Voting Results

Historical Dem Senate voting counties are turning out in bigger numbers.

We're in halftime of voting. Right now Talarico has the lead.

The answer is yes, he Desperately want the Talkafreako pro crime agenda

Republicans always show up on election day in huge numbers. Democrats need to have a huge lead going into election day to have any real chance.

I agree with that, but I only have official voting data coming into today. I'm not making any projections and don't have the grapefruits to make a $4K bet

You didn't answer my question.

Not my guy, but neither is the other guy.

Dan Scott said:

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Not my guy, but neither is the other guy.

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Thanks, I got my answer.

UNDERCOVER: GAVIN NEWSOM SAYS THE DSA IS "GOING TO BE DOMINANT" AND "MAINSTREAM" IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY!

"The DSA, the energy and the desire and demand for bold change, not incremental change, is very much going to be dominant. I mean, that's going to be a mainstream Democratic… pic.twitter.com/y83qCrYiwO

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) October 26, 2026

We all know this. Now it's official. You vote democrat you're a socialist.

Your welcome. Did you look at the official state data I provided. Do you still dispute what I said?

Yes. I hate to inform you that Paxton wins by at least 3.

Dan Scott said:

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Your welcome. Did you look at the official state data I provided. Do you still dispute what I said?

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Less than 20 minutes to download the excel files and run some numbers. Sure why not?

We agree, it's going to be close.

Do you AI bro?

Get the % breakdown by county between R and D in 2018 and 2024. Assume the ratio is the same. Apply to votes submitted so far.

We have an Early Vote Update from Texas now live on the website! pic.twitter.com/7jk4xsnXeq

— E_DataGuy (@E_DataGuy) October 26, 2026

Plenty of stuff out there showing republicans are voting

Quick question are you taking the data comparison off of the final outcome? Or are you comparing based on where things set one week out from both races?

And AI also has bias built in.

Rubicante said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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We will all be winners on November 4 when we don't have to see or hear these ads anymore.

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Also WoW Forever, Ocarina of Time, and soon after GTA VI will come out. It will be a good month.

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I'll never star your posts but I'll quote to agree

Not familiar with your AI methods.

Raw data for statewide early voting shows the 269751 rows in the screenshot below. Look up your name is all that's possible with this data. FYI not able to locate mine.



And the by county breakdown is as follows.



All of that data would be GIGO.

Wife voted today. Said no line at the poll on the other side of town as she was at the public library returning books, apparently it's in the run down church… she voted straight R and complained that she couldn't just hit the button anymore.

SoulSlaveAG2005 said:

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Wife voted today. Said no line at the poll on the other side of town as she was at the public library returning books, apparently it's in the run down church… she voted straight R and complained that she couldn't just hit the button anymore.

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Yall still electronic?

Wonder what the breakdown is here in Texas. Thought there was a big push to go back to paper.

All paper up here in my parts

ETA: Well still optically scanned after done with the paper ballet. So I guess a hybrid method?

Sorta.

Paper ballot, goes into the machine dohickey… then it's touchscreen selection, then it prints out the ballot and you feed another machine scanner thingy.
Touchscreen is an upgrade from the turn wheel thingy in the past.

My first thought