Anyone else get a text from the Abbott campaign within a couple of hours of voting thanking you for voting and sending you a link to look up to see if your friends and family have voted so you can encourage them to do so if they haven't?

Part of me appreciates the sophisticated outreach effort but also way creepy to me.

Rapier108 said:

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oh no said:

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318,000 Texans who voted in each of the last four Republican primaries haven't voted yet. Democrats have just 147,000 of their own left. Our most reliable voters are still at home. If that's you, go this week. Early voting ends Friday. Vote Republican all the way down the ballot.

— Bo French (@bofrench) October 26, 2026

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They keep acting like early voting is the only chance to vote.

I'm in that 318,000 and I'll vote on election day. Hit up one of the big locations about 10:30 in the morning and it will be a quick in and out. I've tried to vote early three times, each time the line was insane. Sorry, I would rather not stand in line for hours.

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I will still early vote, and have come around on holding my nose for Paxton, but I still know a ton like me that will sit out at least that race.

I pray they come around like I have and the Election Day vote is strongly red. Still can't believe we are here when this should have been a layup

there is a guy who was acquitted on all charges re: abusing his office because there was no evidence - straight from the whistleblowers' mouths under oath at the impeachment trial and after +3 years of Biden's FBI digging in.. and then there's a radical socialist that says capitalism needs to be dismantled and voted against every tax cut and ban on new taxes who also happens to be a false prophet heretic that says you can crush your babies' skulls because the Archangel Gabriel appeared to Mary at the Annunciation. The implications on turning over the US Senate to these radical socialists has Venezuela type implications to our nation, whereas the implications of Paxton voting for things like the Save Act can do no harm. This should still be a layup.

It isn't the fault of the people that voted for Paxton in the primary. It isn't even Paxton's fault. It is F'ing Cornyn's fault. If he wasn't such a sellout and RINO, he would be the one that won the primary. He had to read the Dummy's book on how to be a republican...not conservative. He has shown his ass by how he has acted since he lost the primary. He didn't care about Texans. This was his whole purpose in life and felt he was entitled to it. He should be out there supporting Paxton and telling people we cannot afford Talarico.

If he would go out there saying he is voting for Paxton, it definitely wouldn't be close. He would give more people cover to hold their nose when they vote for Paxton. He has decided not to because he doesn't care about Texans or Republicans. He only cares about himself.

The Shank Ag said:

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Rapier108 said:

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oh no said:

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318,000 Texans who voted in each of the last four Republican primaries haven't voted yet. Democrats have just 147,000 of their own left. Our most reliable voters are still at home. If that's you, go this week. Early voting ends Friday. Vote Republican all the way down the ballot.

— Bo French (@bofrench) October 26, 2026

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They keep acting like early voting is the only chance to vote.

I'm in that 318,000 and I'll vote on election day. Hit up one of the big locations about 10:30 in the morning and it will be a quick in and out. I've tried to vote early three times, each time the line was insane. Sorry, I would rather not stand in line for hours.

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I will still early vote, and have come around on holding my nose for Paxton, but I still know a ton like me that will sit out at least that race.

I pray they come around like I have and the Election Day vote is strongly red. Still can't believe we are here when this should have been a layup

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John had 24 years of not being a conservative, especially on gun control. The talks of primarying him started like 10 years ago but he was too arrogant to change.

Dan Scott said:

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That's what I'm looking at. From that county breakdown, get the cumulative votes entered. Then I applied the % split from the 2024 and 2018 Senate elections.

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It will change tomorrow and the next day.

Either way I like that your data study shows Paxton winning between 1% & 6%.

Now that I have the file setup, I can easily update for each day until early voting ends. We can play around with the split on the big counties.

stop dooming about Texas pic.twitter.com/7guSe5vJNX

— Ari Daniel Bradshaw (@AriBradshawAZ) October 27, 2026

Teslag said:

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Old McDonald said:

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*taps the sign*

Old McDonald said:

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EV analysis is a fun way to pass the time, but most of the people doing it are either ****posting, rage baiting, or wishcasting.

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The lack of self awareness with this post is simply stunning.

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takes one to know one. welcome back!

oh no said:

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318,000 Texans who voted in each of the last four Republican primaries haven't voted yet. Democrats have just 147,000 of their own left. Our most reliable voters are still at home. If that's you, go this week. Early voting ends Friday. Vote Republican all the way down the ballot.

— Bo French (@bofrench) October 26, 2026

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How many of these people are Election Day voters? I used to vote on Election Day but started EV recently.

That guy is doing it the same way I did it except he's using the Trump/Kamala split from 2024. I think the more accurate way would be to compare the senate vote. That as of yesterdays tally was +6 Paxton.

Imagine being a lib and cheerfully rooting on these marxists. The amount of self delusion must be staggering in order not to break down.

The Shank Ag said:

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Rapier108 said:

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oh no said:

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318,000 Texans who voted in each of the last four Republican primaries haven't voted yet. Democrats have just 147,000 of their own left. Our most reliable voters are still at home. If that's you, go this week. Early voting ends Friday. Vote Republican all the way down the ballot.

— Bo French (@bofrench) October 26, 2026

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They keep acting like early voting is the only chance to vote.

I'm in that 318,000 and I'll vote on election day. Hit up one of the big locations about 10:30 in the morning and it will be a quick in and out. I've tried to vote early three times, each time the line was insane. Sorry, I would rather not stand in line for hours.

---

I will still early vote, and have come around on holding my nose for Paxton, but I still know a ton like me that will sit out at least that race.

I pray they come around like I have and the Election Day vote is strongly red. Still can't believe we are here when this should have been a layup

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Go get them to vote GOP?

TAMU1990 said:

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oh no said:

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318,000 Texans who voted in each of the last four Republican primaries haven't voted yet. Democrats have just 147,000 of their own left. Our most reliable voters are still at home. If that's you, go this week. Early voting ends Friday. Vote Republican all the way down the ballot.

— Bo French (@bofrench) October 26, 2026

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How many of these people are Election Day voters? I used to vote on Election Day but started EV recently.

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The Texas GOP absolutely believes they win ED…their focus has been turning out EVs…

Bank the easy votes now, so they can work on turning out the lower propensity voter

About 16% of these voters are election day voters.

Rapier108 said:

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oh no said:

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318,000 Texans who voted in each of the last four Republican primaries haven't voted yet. Democrats have just 147,000 of their own left. Our most reliable voters are still at home. If that's you, go this week. Early voting ends Friday. Vote Republican all the way down the ballot.

— Bo French (@bofrench) October 26, 2026

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They keep acting like early voting is the only chance to vote.

I'm in that 318,000 and I'll vote on election day. Hit up one of the big locations about 10:30 in the morning and it will be a quick in and out. I've tried to vote early three times, each time the line was insane. Sorry, I would rather not stand in line for hours.

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I was in that 318,000 until I voted this evening. I am less worried about the high propensity voters eventually turning out and more interested in the 1 of 4 and 0 of 4, whether they turn out, and which way they break.

bobbranco said:

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Have fun hosting Ken!

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We had Gov. Greg Abbott at the Arc Light last week on Oct 22. -- around 300 came out.

@GregAbbott_TX in #sanangelo at the Greatest Bar in Texas, the Arc Light Bar & Grill on Oct 22, 2026 pic.twitter.com/4zs1nGHNjU

— San Angelo LIVE! (@SanAngeloLIVE) October 22, 2026

Paxton on Wed at 11 a.m.

Trump is going to be in Texas with JFF, Danny Amendola, and Cart McCoy, today I think.

I am looking like I’m going to be right on the money about El Paso County. Formulas and models are great but basic arithmetic will carry the field all day.

Beto had a special power play in getting 98% or presidential turnout in his home county and beating Cruz by 50 points. That… https://t.co/ZX4PMReJkm

— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) October 27, 2026

Good analyses, imho. GOP turnout continues to steadily rise:

Collin County, TX Early Vote (Days 1 - 8)

🗳️ Ballots so far: 244,225

🔴 Republicans: 56,338 (23.1% of all ballots)
🔵 Democrats: 47,661 (19.5% of all ballots)

📊 Margin: R +8,677
R share of identified: 54.2%

Latest (Mon Oct 26): R +1,761 pic.twitter.com/g72CpJQZqt

— Justin (@JustinVos) October 27, 2026

Not that much backsliding, really.

TAMU1990 said:

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stop dooming about Texas pic.twitter.com/7guSe5vJNX

— Ari Daniel Bradshaw (@AriBradshawAZ) October 27, 2026

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I don't see how anybody can come up with these type numbers when 30% of the votes are showing no party affiliation.

The twitter voter turnout engagement posts are all over the place.

This one is taking county averages from a 2024 election with Trump on the ballot and applying it to this election. Don't think I'd call that a great model.

Why do you assume the electorate has shifted dramatically in 2-4 years? Most of the models have undecideds breaking the same way they have in prior elections. The ones that don't, like Theo, are the ones that look dumb and unrealistic.

In general I'd say applying trends from a red state election with Trump on the ballot to an election without Trump on the ballot is a bad method.

aggiegolfer2012 said:

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In general I'd say applying trends from a red state election with Trump on the ballot to an election without Trump on the ballot is a bad method.

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I think non-hispanic white Texans are incredibly unlikely to shift 10+ points left this cycle vs. whatever compare in the past 10 years is used. But this is used in projections nationally to paint the blue wave imho.

Same thing when people in GA genuinely think White Georgians will shift 10+ points to the left when they only had a 10 point gap between Brian Kemp and HERSCHEL WALKER. Like what are we even doing here

— VS (@StrongRanger579) October 26, 2026

Theo apparently gave an interview where he indicated his expertise comes from being an 'astrophysicist.' Again he has a slick website/good current vote data but I just find his projections silly, more than anything else. Not trying to trash him, but he has no track record with projections and looks/sounds like a young blue partisan unfamiliar with the statistics in the state. (He also relies on a huge shift left for hispanics.)

The Unforgiven said:

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It isn't the fault of the people that voted for Paxton in the primary. It isn't even Paxton's fault. It is F'ing Cornyn's fault. If he wasn't such a sellout and RINO, he would be the one that won the primary. He had to read the Dummy's book on how to be a republican...not conservative. He has shown his ass by how he has acted since he lost the primary. He didn't care about Texans. This was his whole purpose in life and felt he was entitled to it. He should be out there supporting Paxton and telling people we cannot afford Talarico.

If he would go out there saying he is voting for Paxton, it definitely wouldn't be close. He would give more people cover to hold their nose when they vote for Paxton. He has decided not to because he doesn't care about Texans or Republicans. He only cares about himself.

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He is one of the globalist uni-party along with all the other RINOs. The Davos elitists with the desire to rule the world economically. Unfortunately, they have their head up and locked when it comes to the expansion of radical Muslims.

Former Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice (from 1988 to 2004) Tom Phillips (Republican) endorses @jamestalarico for Senate in a scathing rebuke of Ken Paxton. Read this y’all 👇
https://t.co/6wpE8wcCjE

— Scott Uhl (@ScottUhlTX) October 27, 2026

[Do not spam this thread with a wall of copied text. Select the slice you would like for supplementary context to support your post. Staff]

Quote:

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Second, the Republican Party needs to restore its traditional beliefs to succeed in 2028 and beyond, and Paxton would be more likely to obstruct those efforts than to facilitate them. In the last decade, core Republican principles like limited government, free enterprise, debt reduction and support for emerging democracies across the globe have been jettisoned in favor of government ownership in private companies, record deficit spending, endless vanity projects and cozying up to foreign strongmen instead of strengthening our alliances with friendly nations. The president has supported policies that obscenely enhanced his and his family's wealth, and he has cultivated a pay-to-play aura surrounding his administration's initiatives that is unprecedented in American history.

Those Republican officeholders who have stood against these policies, or those whose duties are unrelated to the president's policies, should not be punished for a mere party label the country needs good Republican officials to maintain a strong two-party system. But unwavering Trump cheerleaders such as Paxton should be returned to private life, allowing the remaining Republican officials to reclaim their party's proud and principled heritage.

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The Unforgiven said:

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It isn't the fault of the people that voted for Paxton in the primary. It isn't even Paxton's fault. It is F'ing Cornyn's fault. If he wasn't such a sellout and RINO, he would be the one that won the primary. He had to read the Dummy's book on how to be a republican...not conservative. He has shown his ass by how he has acted since he lost the primary. He didn't care about Texans. This was his whole purpose in life and felt he was entitled to it. He should be out there supporting Paxton and telling people we cannot afford Talarico.

If he would go out there saying he is voting for Paxton, it definitely wouldn't be close. He would give more people cover to hold their nose when they vote for Paxton. He has decided not to because he doesn't care about Texans or Republicans. He only cares about himself.

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He is doing what he has been told to do….no different than his entire political career…this does not make him unique

Quote:

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I'm Republican. I care about GOP values. That's why I'm voting for Talarico

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If you truly care about GOP values, then work really hard to primary Paxton next time around. You don't go vote for a socialist who wants to pack the Supreme Court, and transition your kids without parent consent. I'm surprised the TX Supreme Court judge would be in favor of someone within a view that is so extreme regarding our US Supreme Court

The justice sounds like a Democrat. And he probably really is. Zero chance he voted for someone like Cruz or Trump and patted himself on the back with that split too.

jt16 said:

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If you truly care about GOP values, then work really hard to primary Paxton next time around. You don't go vote for a socialist who wants to pack the Supreme Court, and transition your kids without parent consent. I'm surprised the TX Supreme Court judge would be in favor of someone within a view that is so extreme regarding our US Supreme Court

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I'm republican and did NOT vote for Talarico, but this BS narrative about "transitionong kids without parental consent" is just stupid. If people would stick to real arguments over real issues our political process might just have a chance of one day emerging from the complete chaos it is now.

OldAg92 said:

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jt16 said:

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If you truly care about GOP values, then work really hard to primary Paxton next time around. You don't go vote for a socialist who wants to pack the Supreme Court, and transition your kids without parent consent. I'm surprised the TX Supreme Court judge would be in favor of someone within a view that is so extreme regarding our US Supreme Court

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I'm republican and did NOT vote for Talarico, but this BS narrative about "transitionong kids without parental consent" is just stupid. If people would stick to real arguments over real issues our political process might just have a chance of one day emerging from the complete chaos it is now.

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Except we have had cases of counselors and teachers had tried to do that very thing. So yes, it is a real issue.

NunnyFame said:

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Former Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice (from 1988 to 2004) Tom Phillips (Republican) endorses @jamestalarico for Senate in a scathing rebuke of Ken Paxton. Read this y’all 👇
https://t.co/6wpE8wcCjE

— Scott Uhl (@ScottUhlTX) October 27, 2026

[Do not spam this thread with a wall of copied text. Select the slice you would like for supplementary context to support your post. Staff]

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A more accurate intro to that tweet would be "I'm a staunch Rino."

We pint out every day that there are a lot of fake republicans in Texas politics. Anyone who would vote for Talarico is not and never was a conservative. Talarico is a marxist.

Have you not been awake? It's absolutely what they advocate for.

OldAg92 said:

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jt16 said:

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If you truly care about GOP values, then work really hard to primary Paxton next time around. You don't go vote for a socialist who wants to pack the Supreme Court, and transition your kids without parent consent. I'm surprised the TX Supreme Court judge would be in favor of someone within a view that is so extreme regarding our US Supreme Court

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I'm republican and did NOT vote for Talarico, but this BS narrative about "transitionong kids without parental consent" is just stupid. If people would stick to real arguments over real issues our political process might just have a chance of one day emerging from the complete chaos it is now.

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You do know where that argument is coming from though correct. Transitioning might be a strong word to use there, but Talarico is all for "protection" of kids and teachers at school to allow them to call your boy a girl, get their teachers to do the same, and get resources in your kids hands that makes and start the transitioning process easier.

I get it, Talarico isn't holding the knife in the surgeons office to whack a willy off, but he is for kicking the snowball down the hill and making it grow fast enough that a parent may not know how to stop it. Or he will simply say you are an unfit parent and take your kid away.