"The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE's pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe five million barrels combined. The math doesn't work. The bottleneck is not political. It is geological and hydrographic.

Every TV analyst in America is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. They are asking the wrong questions. The binding constraint on Hormuz was never a minefield or insurance. It is the US Navy's willingness and ability to reopen it."

https://gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hypothesis-what-if-the-u-s-navy-isnt-in-a-hurry-to-reopen-the-strait/

DogCo84 said:

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"The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE's pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe five million barrels combined. The math doesn't work. The bottleneck is not political. It is geological and hydrographic.

Every TV analyst in America is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. They are asking the wrong questions. The binding constraint on Hormuz was never a minefield or insurance. It is the US Navy's willingness and ability to reopen it."

https://gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hypothesis-what-if-the-u-s-navy-isnt-in-a-hurry-to-reopen-the-strait/

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The reasons that you have stated, make the US Navy ships and aircraft vulnerable to anyone with an inexpensive drone.

Good article. Thanks for posting.

Perhaps this explains France's irrational behavior. They see the writing on the wall here.

Thanks for that article. Interesting read. I listen to Peter Zeihan occasionally and he mentioned hitting the pump stations and undersea pipes that supply Kharg. Rather than landing and taking it, just turn it off. It's not destroyed and can be brought back online when we are ready.

really glad you started a brand new thread

instead of using the TWO previous threads which have combined thousands of responses.

Outstanding article. I really hope Trump and his people are thinking on the level this guy is.

It's the aerial drone and the drone ship threat combined with threats from diesel submarines that have closed the strait.

There aren't enough military escort vessels to provide the coverage needed for the hundreds of ships that traverse strait daily.

If you can't guarantee the safety of a vessel then you make those that inflict that threat pay for it 10 fold.

We're not. That's one of the points of the article.

Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

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That we're just going to sell to the highest overseas bidder. It was never about "energy independence."

That was a very good article.

Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

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The US does not produce nor has proven reserves, in sufficient quantities, the entire range of API gravity crudes required for several critical, refined products. One being diesel.

TA-OP said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

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That we're just going to sell to the highest overseas bidder. It was never about "energy independence."

---

You hate making money?

That article has a ton of AI smells. "It's not this, it's that." And so on

Asia uses the great majority of oil that transits the strait. They are utterly unwilling to do what it takes to make it permanently safe and secure by dealing with Iran, as they'd all rather pay extorted tribute now that simply makes Iran an even bigger problem in the future. Fools.

They and the Europeans know that because oil is at least somewhat a fungible commodity that and major supply shock hits America also and that at some point we will act and yet again do the hard work. It's pathetic but seems to be the paradigm.

The euros like to call us childish and unsophisticated but it turns out they've been the spoiled children for a century. Some nation has to be the adult, and therefore rightly gets to be the hegemon with all the duties and benefits. Trump actually understands this.

Ozzy Osbourne said:

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That article has a ton of AI smells. "It's not this, it's that." And so on

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He might have used AI as an editor but I see a lot of AI slope and you can definitely see the Captain's independent voice coming through, here.

I don't care who or what generates it so long as the facts and logic are sound.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Asia uses the great majority of oil that transits the strait. They are utterly unwilling to do what it takes to make it permanently safe and secure by dealing with Iran, as they'd all rather pay extorted tribute now that simply makes Iran an even bigger problem in the future. Fools.

They and the Europeans know that because oil is at least somewhat a fungible commodity that and major supply shock hits America also and that at some point we will act and yet again do the hard work. It's pathetic but seems to be the paradigm.

The euros like to call us childish and unsophisticated but it turns out they've been the spoiled children for a century. Some nation has to be the adult, and therefore rightly gets to be the hegemon with all the duties and benefits. Trump actually understands this.

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Exactly. Konstantin often mentions the statistics concerning the fact that they are like 15% of the world's population but consume something like 40% of the world's welfare.

Europe is the world's largest nepo baby.

TA-OP said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

---

That we're just going to sell to the highest overseas bidder. It was never about "energy independence."

---

Well, considering half the crude exports that the US ships out comes out of the Port of Corpus Christi along with being a major refined products hub coupled with the reality that we are about to hit a catastrophic level of water shortage here in May, we may not be exporting out as much as before. Very good chance we are going to have some export disruptions of O&G over the next year.

All of the industry down here is about to take a 25% haircut on water usage next month. And there is actually a scenario where we deplete all of the water within months to a year.

This will be national news soon enough and become a factor on matters.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Asia uses the great majority of oil that transits the strait. They are utterly unwilling to do what it takes to make it permanently safe and secure by dealing with Iran, as they'd all rather pay extorted tribute now that simply makes Iran an even bigger problem in the future. Fools.

They and the Europeans know that because oil is at least somewhat a fungible commodity that and major supply shock hits America also and that at some point we will act and yet again do the hard work. It's pathetic but seems to be the paradigm.

The euros like to call us childish and unsophisticated but it turns out they've been the spoiled children for a century. Some nation has to be the adult, and therefore rightly gets to be the hegemon with all the duties and benefits. Trump actually understands this.

---

The First Barbary War...

This is what we're dealing with now...

I'm not the biggest fan of Trump, but he does have brass balls like Jefferson had...

Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

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why do some people refuse to learn that this isn't how it works?

YouBet said:

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TA-OP said:

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Tailgate88 said:

---

Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

---

That we're just going to sell to the highest overseas bidder. It was never about "energy independence."

---

Well, considering half the crude exports that the US ships out comes out of the Port of Corpus Christi along with being a major refined products hub coupled with the reality that we are about to hit a catastrophic level of water shortage here in May, we may not be exporting out as much as before. Very good chance we are going to have some export disruptions of O&G over the next year.

All of the industry down here is about to take a 25% haircut on water usage next month. And there is actually a scenario where we deplete all of the water within months to a year.

This will be national news soon enough and become a factor on matters.

---

While not the financial boondoggles that we see in our favorite blue cities and states, Corpus Christi's dysfunctional incompetence is truly astounding.

I lived in Beeville from 08-17. I was intimately involved in Beeville water nightmares throughout most of that time. Nothing smart could ever get off the grind and by and large morning has changed since I left.

IIIHorn said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

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The US does not produce nor has proven reserves, in sufficient quantities, the entire range of API gravity crudes required for several critical, refined products. One being diesel.

---

I thought the Venezuelan crude was perfect for diesel?

panhandlefarmer said:

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IIIHorn said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

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The US does not produce nor has proven reserves, in sufficient quantities, the entire range of API gravity crudes required for several critical, refined products. One being diesel.

---

I thought the Venezuelan crude was perfect for diesel?

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It is but there is not enough of it

Kenneth_2003 said:

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YouBet said:

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TA-OP said:

---

Tailgate88 said:

---

Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

---

That we're just going to sell to the highest overseas bidder. It was never about "energy independence."

---

Well, considering half the crude exports that the US ships out comes out of the Port of Corpus Christi along with being a major refined products hub coupled with the reality that we are about to hit a catastrophic level of water shortage here in May, we may not be exporting out as much as before. Very good chance we are going to have some export disruptions of O&G over the next year.

All of the industry down here is about to take a 25% haircut on water usage next month. And there is actually a scenario where we deplete all of the water within months to a year.

This will be national news soon enough and become a factor on matters.

---

While not the financial boondoggles that we see in our favorite blue cities and states, Corpus Christi's dysfunctional incompetence is truly astounding.

I lived in Beeville from 08-17. I was intimately involved in Beeville water nightmares throughout most of that time. Nothing smart could ever get off the grind and by and large morning has changed since I left.

---

It is truly a Charlie Foxtrot down here in the Corpus area...

JFC, our politicians AND everyone involved in all the management of the city suck...

panhandlefarmer said:

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IIIHorn said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

---

The US does not produce nor has proven reserves, in sufficient quantities, the entire range of API gravity crudes required for several critical, refined products. One being diesel.

---

I thought the Venezuelan crude was perfect for diesel?

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I believe you are correct.

Loren Visser said:

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Why are we responsible for keeping it open?

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Because the US started this mess even though it did not.

Logos Stick said:

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panhandlefarmer said:

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IIIHorn said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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Drill baby drill! We've got plenty of our own oil.

---

The US does not produce nor has proven reserves, in sufficient quantities, the entire range of API gravity crudes required for several critical, refined products. One being diesel.

---

I thought the Venezuelan crude was perfect for diesel?

---

It is but there is not enough of it

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How does ME oil help that? Isn't ME oil light and sweet while Venezualan oil is heavy and sour?

BTKAG97 said:

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Loren Visser said:

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Why are we responsible for keeping it open?

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Because the US started this mess even though it did not.

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Truth...

We're just cleaning up 50 years of **** off by the rest of the world and all the previous Presidents. They ALL wanted to kick the can down the road.

Well, Trump decided we weren't going to kick it. We were going to blow it the **** up...

Ag with kids said:

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BTKAG97 said:

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Loren Visser said:

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Why are we responsible for keeping it open?

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Because the US started this mess even though it did not.

---

Truth...

We're just cleaning up 50 years of **** off by the rest of the world and all the previous Presidents. They ALL wanted to kick the can down the road.

Well, Trump decided we weren't going to kick it. We were going to blow it the **** up...

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His bone spurs must be hurting.

;-)

He wants it to be the Straits of America.