nortex97 said:

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Average advertised monthly rent in Tehran has climbed above 720 million rials, roughly three times the earnings of many Iranian workers, exposing a widening affordability gap as some tenants face increases of up to 100%, market data showed in late July.

Tindex, an Iran-focused… pic.twitter.com/r5rfOMkZWB

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) August 9, 2026

A bunch of industrial fires about Tehran (Nasrabad) I have read, plausibly sabotage operations by you know who.

The US objective toward Iran should be "regime collapse," US Senator Ted Cruz said, describing the Islamic Republic as a government that has been "tyrannical" toward Iranians and a "vicious" enemy of the United States.
Cruz told Iran International's Marzia Hussaini that removing… pic.twitter.com/5urjjfsugt

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) August 8, 2026

I agree with Ted Cruz on this one.

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Same.

Dan Scott said:

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Gasoline futures up 11% on the open. Look like no deal.

Initial reports of a vessel ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman. pic.twitter.com/rAGXmCFaAS

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 9, 2026

During a brief phone call Sunday with Axios, President Trump said that the United States is “low keying it” with Iran. “It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game,” Trump said, not expressing any anger or frustration about the fact that Iran has been holding up… pic.twitter.com/avCpaB9CnG

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 9, 2026

Israel has rejected President Donald Trump’s 15-point Gaza plan, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying Israel will not withdraw from its current positions until Hamas is completely disarmed. Netanyahu has also said Israel did not agree to the latest U.S. backed draft and… pic.twitter.com/fTILA2EScx

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 9, 2026

This is a dumpster fire.

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True, but it looks like Israel and Iran are just fine with the dumpster fire.

Why the Strait of Hormuz is Not "Irrelevant"

⚓The "Irrelevance" Argument: Analyzing the claim that underground pipelines will soon replace 50-70% of the energy moving through the Strait.
⚓The Pipeline Problem: Why moving oil is easy, but moving LNG, LPG, and bulk fertilizer… pic.twitter.com/OER4N5vke4

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) August 9, 2026

Well it doesn't seem like the conflict has had a notable impact on the global economy's net output/shipping.

War, disruption and rerouting fail to derail container demand

⚓️Global container volumes hit 98.4m teu in the first half of 2026, up 5.2% year on year despite Middle East disruption
⚓️Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America continued to drive growth as North American demand…

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) August 9, 2026

Always has been

Americans will put up with mistakes from their leaders. They will not put up with gross systemic incompetence as the Democrats found out with Biden's open borders policy in the last election cycle.
We better see something concrete, better than the status quo policy which existed in January of this year. Add to that the needless casualties and expensive property loss because the Army's deployed forces were foolishly exposed to Iranian drones in their housing modules and the Air Force parking tankers wingtip to wingtip in Saudi . How can we Americans not be furious over this incompetence and wastage of our military resources?

nortex97 said:

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Well it doesn't seem like the conflict has had a notable impact on the global economy's net output/shipping.

War, disruption and rerouting fail to derail container demand

⚓️Global container volumes hit 98.4m teu in the first half of 2026, up 5.2% year on year despite Middle East disruption
⚓️Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America continued to drive growth as North American demand…

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) August 9, 2026

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North American demand flattened
CTS estimates Middle East Gulf conflict cost up to 2m teu in lost volumes, while freight pricing surged to its highest level since September 2024

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Anyone know what the demand from North America was flattened?

I'm thinking consumers are part of Americans picking up the tab for the lost volume and freight price surge like we are for other things lately.

No Spin Ag said:

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North American demand flattened
CTS estimates Middle East Gulf conflict cost up to 2m teu in lost volumes, while freight pricing surged to its highest level since September 2024

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Anyone know what the demand from North America was flattened?

I'm thinking consumers are part of Americans picking up the tab for the lost volume and freight price surge like we are for other things lately.

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We cut our trade deficit via tariffs/demanding to finally be treated fairly (and a slight amount due to Canada being in a TDS-recession).

This has been actually good economic news relative to our trade deficit, though of course not reported on much in the 'regular' places.

nortex97 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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The remainder of the post that didn't show:

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North American demand flattened
CTS estimates Middle East Gulf conflict cost up to 2m teu in lost volumes, while freight pricing surged to its highest level since September 2024

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Anyone know what the demand from North America was flattened?

I'm thinking consumers are part of Americans picking up the tab for the lost volume and freight price surge like we are for other things lately.

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We cut our trade deficit via tariffs/demanding to finally be treated fairly (and a slight amount due to Canada being in a TDS-recession).

This has been actually good economic news relative to our trade deficit, though of course not reported on much in the 'regular' places.

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Not needing others is a good thing. It would be better if prices went down because of it, but it's still a win in what the intent was.

Trump is now saying a nuke deal isn't happening and we will just catch them if they try to build again. Fine with me. Can we leave now?

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...even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he's willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.

On the nuclear concerns, Trump has told senior aides privately in recent weeks that Tehran is likely unable to revive its nuclear work during his presidency after the U.S. destroyed three primary nuclear sites last year, the officials added.

U.S. intelligence capabilities would likely catch any Iranian attempts to rebuild those facilities or covertly build a bomb, the president has said in recent meetings, and he is confident the threat of more American attacks would serve as an enduring deterrent.

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YouBet said:

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Trump is now saying a nuke deal isn't happening and we will just catch them if they try to build again. Fine with me. Can we leave now?

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...even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he's willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.

On the nuclear concerns, Trump has told senior aides privately in recent weeks that Tehran is likely unable to revive its nuclear work during his presidency after the U.S. destroyed three primary nuclear sites last year, the officials added.

U.S. intelligence capabilities would likely catch any Iranian attempts to rebuild those facilities or covertly build a bomb, the president has said in recent meetings, and he is confident the threat of more American attacks would serve as an enduring deterrent.

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I don't know if Trump saying this falls more in the "Torbush wow" camp or "TACO" camp, but it we end up leaving like this it's definitely not going to look good on his legacy.

I hope this is just things said that mean nothing.

I mean Iran is kind of proving the admin right. All they have to do is give up a nuclear program (that they swear isn't nefarious) and they likely get generously compensated for a rebuild.

They are absolutely close to a nuke.

Texaguser17 said:

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Spot on. The issue fundamentally is if Iran has nuclear weapons it cannot be dictated to. See Russia, China and NK. Nuclear deterrence is the only viable mechanism foreign countries see to US involvement. Let's not forget we first attacked Iran last year and again this year. To the world we are the aggressor. We invaded a sovereign nation of Iraq that left a million dead under false pretenses. The world has to come terms with two options. Use the US dollar or procure nuclear weapons.

The ultimate failure in this latest rendition is at you described in the highlighting ineffective use of carrier groups in the drone age. It was sadly even predictable, as o and many other pontificates would be the case. One only had to look at the Ukraine Russia war to realize this was 100% unwinnable for us. We can not defeat them from carriers while they mass produce drones. It would eventually show how 1. Our global hegemony is a farce and 2. How to effectively reduce our military capabilities.

Best course of action is to immediately return from the ME in its entirety and focus on the western hemisphere. No more funding for Israel and Europe. We are bankrupt to the tune of 40 TRILLION at the end of the day. We cannot continue to fund foreign nations and foreign wars.

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They can also look at other examples like Libya, where Gaddafi agreed to give up his nuclear aspirations in 03 and we still funded the terrorists who sodomized him to death.

$300 billion in restitution or $300 billion in circumvention. Tough choices.

Is the IDF capable of destroying Iran's nuke program without us ?

Captain Pablo said:

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Is the IDF capable of destroying Iran's nuke program without us ?

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Probably not. At least not conventionally. Iranians dig deep. The kind of deep that require the type of munitions that only the largest dedicated bombers can carry. The type of lift that Israel simply does not have. Very few nations actually do.

Can't fathom how Iran thinks 2029 is a better negotiation timeframe than 2026. China is electrifying fast. Europe is following behind. Gulf states are building circumvention. Autonomous electric vehicles are on the horizon. One autonomous vehicle replaces 6-7 vehicles worth of transport demand. It's entirely possible that by 2030 you're looking at total electrification of transport by 2040 with ever decreasing oil demand.

Not unlikely that by 2030 the total oil demand from the strait is either circumvented or reduced substantially that a significant proportion of the pressure is either relinquished or trend-lining to being a point of ever reducing concern.


Why would a president that didn't cause the problem be motivated to resolve the problem with the problem is trend-lining to being resolved without any action and 3 years of the current state being the new normal? Trump is far and away the most motivated to solve the conflict today than some indeterminant theoretical president in 3 years? 3 years of self inflicted economic upset? Iran's economic future looks way more punishing than the U.S.'s. 3 years of AI weapons development with asymmetric capabilities relative to a single expensive warhead.


Unless Iran decides to aggressively build and deploy a nuclear weapon in the next 3 years I don't see how it works out in their favor. You can argue whether the juice was worth the squeeze for Trump, but Iran does not appear to be in a better negotiating position with a new admin. In their best future negotiating leverage they have to do what Trump warned about entirely vindicating him.

Sq 17 said:

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A couple of things would you seriously negotiate with Trump
He forced a renegotiation of NAFTA and 6 years later he is breaking the agreement he negotiated & signed with unilateral tariffs

If Iran can discredit and emasculate the POTUS ( regardless of Party ) that is a win

If this also ruins Bibi's legacy that is another win for IGRC

Regarding the next POTUS solving this problem Succeeding where DJT failed would be a good talking point

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You would first have to get the DJT hard-core supporters (half of the R party) to acknowledge your statements, which ain't happening. I suspect it will have to burn to the ground to start fresh anew, probably after a hard swing left with all of the socialist BS that comes with it.

Sq 17 said:

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A couple of things would you seriously negotiate with Trump
He forced a renegotiation of NAFTA and 6 years later he is breaking the agreement he negotiated & signed with unilateral tariffs

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I'd rather negotiate with good leverage than negotiate with bad leverage. If I'm stuck negotiating with a guy that renege on promises in 3 years then I don't have to worry, because he'll be gone. In 3 years the world will have shifted and whatever happens is likely to be worse.

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If Iran can discredit and emasculate the POTUS ( regardless of Party ) that is a win

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Get to trade severe domestic economic turmoil, lost leverage, international skepticism for making a guy with low approval ratings with a negative international perception to receive low approval ratings and a negative international perception.

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If this also ruins Bibi's legacy that is another win for IGRC

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Not if their people get tired of rationing in the ensuing 3+ years and you have perpetual repeats of Jan 2025. This is short term thinking.

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Regarding the next POTUS solving this problem Succeeding where DJT failed would be a good talking point

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How does that benefit Iran? Succeeding by folding when you have an improved negotiating position is not a win.



You're focusing on what's bad for Trump, not really what's good for Iran. Iran makes Trump look bad, that's minimally valuable to Iran relative to the consequences. It's bad for Trump. They make Bibi look bad. Are you under the impression Iranians have a positive view of Bibi currently? That the rest of the world does? How much worse can he look?


What Iran is doing is not without consequence to Iran. My post is about when their maximal negotiating position exists. It is not in 3 years.

hph6203 said:

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$300 billion in restitution or $300 billion in circumvention. Tough choices.

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I don't think this is relevant anymore. That deal was several weeks ago.

Iran does not care about its people and if they can credibly blame Israel and America for the sufferings that is a win for the IGRC

The SoH is going to be an important piece of real estate for at least 10 years. Global demand might begin to wane but similar to coal it will be an important fuel for a very long time

what do you think Iran should be asking for ?
What do you think they should be willing to settle for ?
IMO there are few demands that Trump is going to have a hard time saying yes to and Iran will probably consider as non-negotiable
1) Iran assets must be unfrozen
2) All us Naval ships must leave the area
3) Oil passing the strait will have a toll I am guessing about $2 a barrel for Iranian reconstruction
Iran does have leverage here that being said can they force Trump into concessions that look like he got beat

It would be nice if the other countries in ME could help solve this problem but the UAE, Saudi, Qatar never felt like they needed to be a regional military enforcer just an economic / production enforcer

Iran asked for $400 billion. U.S. and gulf states countered with $300 billion. Unless you think they've suddenly reduced their demands then minimally the number is $300 billion, paid for the expediency of opening the strait.

Iran has now countered with no negotiations for 2 1/2 years. In 3 years time substantial alternatives can be created.

Those numbers were being thrown around and maybe the other gulf states would have paid some of it but that would still look like a loss and their would still be the issue of unfreezing assets and US naval assets leaving

Those talks like the MOU were talking points and never close to being an actual deal that both sides would sign and abide by