The Iranians are buying Chinese Man Portable Air Defense Systems, currently estimated to price at $175,000 per unit (low end).
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-get-chinese-shoulder-launched-missile-systems-weeks-sources-say-2026-07-29/

We are deploying LUCAS drones at about $35,000-50,000
We also have contracted for Family of Affordable Mass Missiles (FAMM) with $218,000 per round as the target price including variants launched from cargo pallets aboard transport aircraft at 500 mile ranges.
A longer term war of attrition favors us. Not Iran and their DSA allies.

UTExan said:

---

The Iranians are buying Chinese Man Portable Air Defense Systems, currently estimated to price at $175,000 per unit (low end).
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-get-chinese-shoulder-launched-missile-systems-weeks-sources-say-2026-07-29/

We are deploying LUCAS drones at about $35,000-50,000
We also have contracted for Family of Affordable Mass Missiles (FAMM) with $218,000 per round as the target price including variants launched from cargo pallets aboard transport aircraft at 500 mile ranges.
A longer term war of attrition favors us. Not Iran and their DSA allies.

---

Sure, on a long enough timeline we can defeat them militarily, there's no doubt about that. The problem is in the meantime they're going to destroy the entire region's oil and civilian infrastructure, which would cause massive economic pain that we can't withstand. Not to mention the cost in both dollars, lives, and the regional humanitarian crisis that would ensue.

It's why this whole thing was a massive blunder to begin with. It's too bad that dissenting voices on the right were mocked and dismissed as "panicans" while accurately predicting this would happen.

UTExan said:

---

The Iranians are buying Chinese Man Portable Air Defense Systems, currently estimated to price at $175,000 per unit (low end).
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-get-chinese-shoulder-launched-missile-systems-weeks-sources-say-2026-07-29/

We are deploying LUCAS drones at about $35,000-50,000
We also have contracted for Family of Affordable Mass Missiles (FAMM) with $218,000 per round as the target price including variants launched from cargo pallets aboard transport aircraft at 500 mile ranges.
A longer term war of attrition favors us. Not Iran and their DSA allies.

---

I read an article, sorry don't remember where, maybe politico, where the US General favors a massive 14 day bombing campaign that he argues will eliminate to a large degree Iran's ability to launch drones and missiles (if we can stop the drones and missiles, why haven't we already done this? But never mind). This is to assuage fears that all the US bases and all the critical infrastructure in the ME is at risk because of lack of patriot interceptors and the like. "Don't worry, our bombing campaign will take care of that."

I think escalation now could lead to Iran escalating their attacks on critical infrastructure across Saudi Arabia.

So we may very well see another doubling down by the Trump administration on the idea that a bombing campaign alone can win a war, even though an air war has never won a war in the history of the world.

If this fails, then we may see a huge shortage of gasoline across much of the world, leading to huge global economic effects.

I think we have to understand that voices in the room that say "Mr President, the war is lost, we should leave the theater" are going to be shut down and removed from the room. We have a situation where largely the advisors tell the president what he wants to hear.

It is possible to make this losing war an even worse loss over time.

Yes Vietnam was winnable too but the country didn't have the political will to do what it took to win. Militarily you are correct, economically and politically the US will lose badly while destroying Iran. The latter two matter more to the people. If the fear of a nuclear Iran was as dire as painted, we have no choice but to stop them but it will be impossible to accomplish without boots on the ground.

A negotiated settlement with Iran is the only thing more absurd than just bombing them into submission, unfortunately those are the two options Trump seems to be pursuing.

https://www.reuters.com/investigations/illicit-iranian-gambling-network-helped-pull-off-4-billion-sanctions-dodge-2026-07-31/

here's a good example why sanctions don't work 100%

Quote:

---

LONDON - One of the world's largest illegal gambling networks sends millions of dollars worth of crypto through an office in Dubai, part of a $4 billion Iranian sanctions evasion operation.

The office, above a budget hotel in an unfashionable neighbourhood, is the listed address of Shelbit, an unlicensed crypto exchange run by an expatriate Iranian, according to data shared by two crypto investigative firms and an independent analyst, and reviewed by Reuters.

Among Shelbit's main customers is a Farsi-language gambling network of more than 2,000 websites, fronted by two flashy Iranian influencers with high-level government connections one operating from an expensive villa in Madrid and the other, until recently, from a luxury hotel in Hong Kong.
The two men and the Iranian running Shelbit were convicted as partners in crime in an illegal gambling case in Iran in 2023.

Gambling is outlawed in the Islamic Republic, punishable by lashing and prison. Yet, the gambling network identified by Reuters has access to Iran's online payments system, which is closely overseen by the country's central bank.

Shelbit is the hub of the Iranian money-moving operation, through which the gambling network, the central bank and other sanctioned Iranian entities have access to global crypto markets.

The data on the Shelbit money flows, including the total of at least $4 billion that the exchange has processed since May 2024, were analysed by the two crypto investigative firms and Rich Sanders, an independent blockchain researcher and investigator focused on Iran. The two companies requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive data, which was reviewed by Reuters. Tens of millions of dollars of the gambling network's crypto can be traced through blockchain records to Shelbit.

Shelbit has moved hundreds of millions in currency to some of the most prominent players in crypto, including the world's biggest exchange, Binance.

Shelbit also interacts directly with Iran's central bank; with wallets the Israeli government has linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and with Nobitex, an Iranian exchange which the U.S. government sanctioned earlier this year after a Reuters investigation revealed its ties to the government. Some of the crypto that has flowed to Shelbit came from what the two crypto investigative companies say is an Iranian bitcoin mining operation, which mints new digital coins.

"It's an IRGC operation, and that's plain as day," Sanders said of Shelbit.

---

BQ78 said:

---

Yes Vietnam was winnable too but the country didn't have the political will to do what it took to win. Militarily you are correct, economically and politically the US will lose badly while destroying Iran. The latter two matter more to the people. If the fear of a nuclear Iran was as dire as painted, we have no choice but to stop them but it will be impossible to accomplish without boots on the ground.

A negotiated settlement with Iran is the only thing more absurd than just bombing them into submission, unfortunately those are the two options Trump seems to be pursuing.

---

It will be extremely hard to do a group invasion of Iran, where perhaps there could be tens of thousands of American casualties, esp given that this administration has no particular aims or goals in this war. Given that the American public is massively opposed to this war as it is. Wait until thousands of Americans are dying. Congress I believe would try to stop the war.

This fall election will be a referendum on the war. If you want an escalated war with much sacrifice, vote for MAGA. If you do not, vote for the Democrats.

They do have a clear goal, but it probably won't be accomplished without boots on the ground. Thousands of casualties, pshaw! But I don't think the public will stand for a few hundred that it probably would take.

For a "massively opposed war" I find it curious we have not seen any war protests, even Desert Storm got a few idiots out. So far on this one, the ridiculous "No King" protests makes a bigger splash. It seems curious to me that the left isn't stirring up the NPCs with this one.

shiftyandquick said:

---

UTExan said:

---

The Iranians are buying Chinese Man Portable Air Defense Systems, currently estimated to price at $175,000 per unit (low end).
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-get-chinese-shoulder-launched-missile-systems-weeks-sources-say-2026-07-29/

We are deploying LUCAS drones at about $35,000-50,000
We also have contracted for Family of Affordable Mass Missiles (FAMM) with $218,000 per round as the target price including variants launched from cargo pallets aboard transport aircraft at 500 mile ranges.
A longer term war of attrition favors us. Not Iran and their DSA allies.

---

I read an article, sorry don't remember where, maybe politico, where the US General favors a massive 14 day bombing campaign that he argues will eliminate to a large degree Iran's ability to launch drones and missiles (if we can stop the drones and missiles, why haven't we already done this? But never mind). This is to assuage fears that all the US bases and all the critical infrastructure in the ME is at risk because of lack of patriot interceptors and the like. "Don't worry, our bombing campaign will take care of that."

I think escalation now could lead to Iran escalating their attacks on critical infrastructure across Saudi Arabia.

So we may very well see another doubling down by the Trump administration on the idea that a bombing campaign alone can win a war, even though an air war has never won a war in the history of the world.

If this fails, then we may see a huge shortage of gasoline across much of the world, leading to huge global economic effects.

I think we have to understand that voices in the room that say "Mr President, the war is lost, we should leave the theater" are going to be shut down and removed from the room. We have a situation where largely the advisors tell the president what he wants to hear.

It is possible to make this losing war an even worse loss over time.

---

Well, the best move at this point is to continue lower scale drone attacks, don't publicize them and keep POTUS from saying anything.

Good luck with the latter.

BQ78 said:

---

They do have a clear goal, but it probably won't be accomplished without boots on the ground. Thousands of casualties, pshaw! But I don't think the public will stand for a few hundred that it probably would take.

For a "massively opposed war" I find it curious we have not seen any war protests, even Desert Storm got a few idiots out. So far on this one, the ridiculous "No King" protests makes a bigger splash. It seems curious to me that the left isn't stirring up the NPCs with this one.

---

The only demographic that supports this war is older Republicans. Americans do not want to be involved in yet another Middle East quagmire.

NEW: 64% of Americans believe the Iran war was not worth fighting, including 37% of Republican voters, causing a collapse in Trump’s approval rating according to AP/NORC polling data.

— Dominic Michael Tripi (@DMichaelTripi) July 30, 2026

This is not 2003 Iraq, the Russia/Ukraine war has proven how devastating the new drone warfare era is. Will you be lacing up your boots if it comes to that? Or will you stay behind a keyboard?

Dude, I am just painting the picture not advocating anything. But since I'm collecting monthly checks for 30 years os service, I'll stay behind the keyboard.

'The only demographic that supports this war are older Republicans'.....

You're right.
We have long memories.

pdc093 said:

---

'The only demographic that supports this war are older Republicans'.....

You're right.
We have long memories.

---

Reagan was arming them again within a decade of this. Then we toppled their biggest regional rival in two subsequent wars. What a great enemy we are! Surely this time around a regime change will work in our favor

this is essentially Schrodinger's War. It is both the longest and shortest ware we have ever fought depending on whatever the excuse for incompetence is needed at the time

How else do you square this "truth" with the number of posts in this thread.

AgDev01 said:

---

this is essentially Schrodinger's War. It is both the longest and shortest ware we have ever fought depending on whatever the excuse for incompetence is needed at the time

How else do you square this "truth" with the number of posts in this thread.

---

Yet this also happened regarding lengths.

Quote:

---

+4 President George W. Bush gave his "Mission Accomplished" speech roughly 1.5 months (43 days) after the Iraq War began. The invasion started on March 19, 2003, and he made the speech on May 1, 2003.

---

Now, if the war ended right now, compared to the others, it would definitely be something to boast about.

I don't forsee Iran lasting as long as Iraq. That doesn't mean it hasn't lasted longer than the many times Trump has said the war has been won.

No Spin Ag said:

---

AgDev01 said:

---

this is essentially Schrodinger's War. It is both the longest and shortest ware we have ever fought depending on whatever the excuse for incompetence is needed at the time

How else do you square this "truth" with the number of posts in this thread.

---

Yet this also happened regarding lengths.

Quote:

---

+4 President George W. Bush gave his "Mission Accomplished" speech roughly 1.5 months (43 days) after the Iraq War began. The invasion started on March 19, 2003, and he made the speech on May 1, 2003.

---

Now, if the war ended right now, compared to the others, it would definitely be something to boast about.

I don't forsee Iran lasting as long as Iraq. That doesn't mean it hasn't lasted longer than the many times Trump has said the war has been won.

---

Also the GWOT was from September 2001-August 2021, which is about 1,040 weeks if we're going off that chart.

AgDev01 said:

---

this is essentially Schrodinger's War. It is both the longest and shortest ware we have ever fought depending on whatever the excuse for incompetence is needed at the time

How else do you square this "truth" with the number of posts in this thread.

---

Can you explain what is meant by "Schrodinger's War"? I am familiar with his cat and the fact he served in the Austrian army, but I am having trouble understanding a quantum physics thought experiment with a conflict in Iran,

Will you elaborate on what is mean by the term?


And was reposting this chart supposed to be some ownage of Trump? Cause I don't think it shows that.

We're winning the war overwhelmingly while losing it embarrassingly at the same time is how I interpret that.

BQ78 said:

---

We're winning the war overwhelmingly while losing it embarrassingly at the same time is how I interpret that.

---

So some dumbarse journalist *******ized the term, used it in a headline, in an article that includes no explanation of his *******ized term.

The whole point of the cat is that by opening the box to make absolute certain what is going on, you may change the state of what's in the box, thus you cannot determine the status inside the box.

How does that apply here? The term is not just about duality.

It sounds really stupid to those who know what the original term means, which the author of the source article evidently did not understand.

But until you open the box the cat is both dead and alive, no?

They are trying deflect by attempting to derail the discussion just like they always do. It was clear what was meant by the post, just like you originally stated. There is really no point in engaging further with them on it.

BQ78 said:

---

But until you open the box the cat is both dead and alive, no?

---

How does that apply hear? There is no box. There are just different perspectives. That is not Schrodingers cat.

AgDev01 said:

---

They are trying deflect by attempting to derail the discussion just like they always do. It was clear what was meant by the post, just like you originally stated. There is really no point in engaging further with them on it.

---

You cannot explain anything or attempt to answer a question and I am deflecting?

Have you ever read the article that started the nonsense of the term?

It literally never explains the title. It's like having a title "the blue house" then talking about the lives of 5 cats on safari.

Sure. Strong argument there.

Different takes on the same thing is not quantum physics. Try again.

The Vance foreign policy in action and Trump was right to be skeptical, but dumb to actually listen to Vance.

Trump says he knew the Vance peace plan with Iran was a joke. pic.twitter.com/nSPYRs86t9

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) August 1, 2026

The buck stops anywhere but Trump

PaulsBunions said:

---

The buck stops anywhere but Trump

---

Sends in JD to make a deal because he's losing the war. Then blames him when it's a crappy deal. All the while, knowing he has no intention of keeping any part of any deal. Because he is completely untrustworthy. And so is Iran. The two deserve each other. The sad part is how many people will have to die that aren't to blame for any of these decisions.

TRM said:

---

The Vance foreign policy in action and Trump was right to be skeptical, but dumb to actually listen to Vance.

Trump says he knew the Vance peace plan with Iran was a joke. pic.twitter.com/nSPYRs86t9

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) August 1, 2026

---

True executive leadership at work right there , ladies and gentlemen. I am actually starting to believe all the stories from the first term that I had previously dismissed.

It's pretty clear to anyone with a brain who is actually paying attention to this war, that we have no real idea what we are doing and probably haven't in some time.

At this point, the actual answer is probably just cut our losses and leave it all overnight but of course, optics. We can't "lose" so we are going to have to double down and then triple down. Iran knows we are on a clock. A short one too.

Another thing to remember that I think gets lost, is our force projection is nowhere near what I think most people think it is. People are talking like we have Desert Shield/Storm level of forces in the area. Which is simply untrue. We have comparatively few offensive squadrons to work with in that area and most of those have already been working consistently. Probably less than 200. (Feel free to correct me if terribly wrong of course) Against an entire nation. It's not capability, it's coverage. Same applies to our ISR assets. Maybe even more so. One of the reasons I believe for this constantly extending timeline.

We need to send a junket of democrat politicians to Tehran to meet with the ayatollah and see how he is doing. They are more worried about the ayatollah and his IRGC henchmen than they are the citizens of the United States.

Eliminatus said:

---

TRM said:

---

The Vance foreign policy in action and Trump was right to be skeptical, but dumb to actually listen to Vance.

Trump says he knew the Vance peace plan with Iran was a joke. pic.twitter.com/nSPYRs86t9

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) August 1, 2026

---

True executive leadership at work right there , ladies and gentlemen. I am actually starting to believe all the stories from the first term that I had previously dismissed.

It's pretty clear to anyone with a brain who is actually paying attention to this war, that we have no real idea what we are doing and probably haven't in some time.

At this point, the actual answer is probably just cut our losses and leave it all overnight but of course, optics. We can't "lose" so we are going to have to double down and then triple down. Iran knows we are on a clock. A short one too.

Another thing to remember that I think gets lost, is our force projection is nowhere near what I think most people think it is. People are talking like we have Desert Shield/Storm level of forces in the area. Which is simply untrue. We have comparatively few offensive squadrons to work with in that area and most of those have already been working consistently. Probably less than 200. (Feel free to correct me if terribly wrong of course) Against an entire nation. It's not capability, it's coverage. Same applies to our ISR assets. Maybe even more so. One of the reasons I believe for this constantly extending timeline.

---

I don't see any other option at this point. If he goes through with his announced two week bombing run set to begin this weekend and that changes nothing, then what else is there to do?

Ground troops aren't happening so that only leaves cutting losses and bailing. If he did that, at least we would ok domestically and things would pretty much improve overnight here. Rest of world would be in a bind but not sure that matters much anymore.

Actually it was a strategic move called setting the table. Trump has done it his whole life in business. He gave them an "opportunity" to come to the table and negotiate (surrender). He knew they weren't going to do that so basically the ayatollahs handed him the stick to beat them with. Now it's Game on! Now he is getting cooperation from the Saudi''s, to crush the terrorists that set up shop in Iraq. This is not going to be another Biden screw up like Afghanistan.

We we believe a random WSJ guy now?

Skull Session said:

---

Actually it was a strategic move called setting the table. Trump has done it his whole life in business. He gave them an "opportunity" to come to the table and negotiate (surrender). He knew they weren't going to do that so basically the ayatollahs handed him the stick to beat them with. Now it's Game on! Now he is getting cooperation from the Saudi''s, to crush the terrorists that set up shop in Iraq. This is not going to be another Biden screw up like Afghanistan.

---

The Saudis were at war with Yemen from 2015-2022. 7 years, and the Houthis remained in power. Iran is I think 3.5 times the size of Iraq, with significantly more complex terrain. It also has a robust black market economy that has gotten stronger through years of sanctions.

Eliminatus is right, we overestimate our regional capabilities and underestimate what's needed. At this point, we might not even be able to build up a large land force for an invasion without coming under constant attack. When we built up our current forces, Iran was trying to avoid escalation and war. Now they know that any temporary truce or ceasefire is just an opportunity for us to reload for more bombing. If they get the sense we're trying to invade, or restart a bombing campaign, they're going to start attacking again.

The whole "2 more weeks" thing is a joke, but also how much longer are we going to keep trying to extend this by just 2 more weeks to try something new.

We really need to negotiate something meaningful, preferably with actual diplomats and not real estate developers. I would imagine a negotiated settlement would be better than just leaving one night. Because then we also have to figure out what we are going to do with our bases in the region that took substantial hits.

YouBet said:

---

Eliminatus said:

---

TRM said:

---

The Vance foreign policy in action and Trump was right to be skeptical, but dumb to actually listen to Vance.

Trump says he knew the Vance peace plan with Iran was a joke. pic.twitter.com/nSPYRs86t9

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) August 1, 2026

---

True executive leadership at work right there , ladies and gentlemen. I am actually starting to believe all the stories from the first term that I had previously dismissed.

It's pretty clear to anyone with a brain who is actually paying attention to this war, that we have no real idea what we are doing and probably haven't in some time.

At this point, the actual answer is probably just cut our losses and leave it all overnight but of course, optics. We can't "lose" so we are going to have to double down and then triple down. Iran knows we are on a clock. A short one too.

Another thing to remember that I think gets lost, is our force projection is nowhere near what I think most people think it is. People are talking like we have Desert Shield/Storm level of forces in the area. Which is simply untrue. We have comparatively few offensive squadrons to work with in that area and most of those have already been working consistently. Probably less than 200. (Feel free to correct me if terribly wrong of course) Against an entire nation. It's not capability, it's coverage. Same applies to our ISR assets. Maybe even more so. One of the reasons I believe for this constantly extending timeline.

---

I don't see any other option at this point. If he goes through with his announced two week bombing run set to begin this weekend and that changes nothing, then what else is there to do?

Ground troops aren't happening so that only leaves cutting losses and bailing. If he did that, at least we would ok domestically and things would pretty much improve overnight here. Rest of world would be in a bind but not sure that matters much anymore.

---

Aye, but then he would have to admit this whole thing was a mistake. That is impossible for Trump. Well, to be fair, that would be impossible for most current self serving politicians. Too much rhetoric has been spoken about our "victory" and overwhelming control, etc.

We are in quite a dilemma here with no good options at this point. Only less painful ones. The only difference really is which is more painful to whom. The nation as a whole? Or Trump and his administration specifically. That may be the deciding factor in the end.

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's new claim that Iran has asked for a deal and seeks to agree to it by reopening the Strait of Hormuz, saying "there is no agreement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," adding the US-backed Qatari proposal to reopen the Strait…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) August 2, 2026

From a political fallout standpoint, I think we need to leave Iran and focus on the Western Hemisphere almost fully. Internally, we have a burgeoning national crisis on our hands right now with the rise of communism in this country via the DSA. All efforts need to be focused on purging those people. DSA is openly allying with China. It's a literal insurgency gaining a ton of steam. When mainline Democrats are now fretting, it's time to address it but we are distracted with the Iran quagmire that is not going to change.