Logos Stick said:

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Lucy is teeing up the football again folks...

Breaking: Oil crashes below $91 after reports say Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases its military blockade. pic.twitter.com/cPI2ufcRZh

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) September 22, 2026

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They need to demonstrate they can actually control their military for a week before I'd do anything. I think too many rogue colonels have different plans from whoever we are talking to. The last go round Iran took the benefit of their own lack of cohesion, this time they can take the brunt of any "miscommunications".

tangentially related
US airstrike reportedly targets al-Qaeda logistics coordinator Sulaiman al-Muhammadi in Burum area of Mukalla, Yemen

Would be interesting if the Houthis gave up the info as part of the no combat deal with the US. CIA plays some interesting games in the background of these conflicts.

Then again, reading about that city it looks like that was one of the ones the Yemeni government forces took control of when the Saudis helped intervene against a UAE-backed group at the start of the year.

If we are blockading Iran, who is supplying the Houthis with weapons and intel? China? How are a group of rebels, sand rats, in Yemen able to and allowed to cause problems?

MagnumLoad said:

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If we are blockading Iran, who is supplying the Houthis with weapons and intel? China? How are a group of rebels, sand rats, in Yemen able to and allowed to cause problems?

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the blockade IS working against Yemen

in previous months Yemen fired dozens of ballistic missiles against Israel and Saudi and international shipping

LMCane said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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If we are blockading Iran, who is supplying the Houthis with weapons and intel? China? How are a group of rebels, sand rats, in Yemen able to and allowed to cause problems?

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the blockade IS working against Yemen

in previous months Yemen fired dozens of ballistic missiles against Israel and Saudi and international shipping

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I was reading similar from GPF. The Houthis are sort of down to whatever they have left. Resupplies and refunding are not happening or not at significant levels.

Also of note, Saudi Arabia reopened the E-W pipeline. Was not sure if that had been updated.

Good info. So are the Houthis Yemen, or a rebel group like Hezbolla (sp?) in Lebanon?

MagnumLoad said:

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Good info. So are the Houthis Yemen, or a rebel group like Hezbolla (sp?) in Lebanon?

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They're a faction in the Yemeni civil war. Like many things in the Middle East, it's part religious, part tribal, and part political.

So things haven't changed since 1500 BC.

Edited to add that the Houthis are acting as our enemy and I would treat them as such despite the civil war. I might even support the other side.

Trump on Iran:

Either we’re gonna make a deal, or it’s gonna end very, very quickly.

It will end so quickly your head will spin. pic.twitter.com/pNw7gNqxK6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 22, 2026

Iran's Mahan Air continues to operate flights to Turkey. And yet Trump praised Erdogan as a tough, brilliant guy.

U.K. Sending Voyager Tanker To Help Defend Saudi Airspace

The tanker deployment will support Saudi Arabia's defense against Houthi missiles and drones.https://t.co/XhmsCW3pQe

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) September 22, 2026

The UK tanker to Saudi is rather meaningless, only a show of support. Saudi has the second largest fleet of air tankers, second only to the US.

I wouldn't think they'd need to gas up in the air to hit the houthi's anyway, but it's a weirdly supportive gesture from Londonistan in any case.

Saudi's cranking it up (and MSM Reuters is pathetic, as always).

OK, so this is not how one tracks vessels in the Middle East. Most of the ones moving any cargo of value are keeping their AIS transponders switched off. Our month-on-month sightings show that Saudi Arabia's crude oil loadings along at its east coast are up sevenfold.#OOTT… pic.twitter.com/8Ey1SXrAQ7

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) September 23, 2026

The numbers have doubled in less than a month.

The total crude oil egress via the USN-BL is now 13 Mbpd, with estimated SoH transits at 10.35 Mbpd given that Fujairah and Mina al-Fahal together account for around 2.65 Mbpd on average.

This is partly attributed to Saudi Arabia… https://t.co/ZffcwAhQ4J

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) September 23, 2026

Good news, daytime centcom convoys/escorts of tankers is news to me. I thought that was only happening at night.

I was at an industry conference recently and a couple of the drilling companies that had offshore drilling rigs in the Arabian Gulf were asked about taking their rigs out of the region. They own jack-up rigs that are transported on heavy lift carriers. They were quite non-committal, but from what I gathered an insurance premium was paid to an Iranian entity and were then effectively guaranteed safe passage. This would have been facilitated through the dry haul carrier which was most likely Chinese. My assumption is that the Chinese company paid the Iranians and so the drilling companies can claim ignorance as to whether any payment (i.e. toll, insurance premium, whatever) was made.

Every American Aircraft Lost Or Damaged During The Iran War, Visualized

Three F-15's were shot down by a Kuwaiti traitor (and one in Iran of course, with no loss of life), the others are all expendable drones, and lost on tarmacs basically. The MQ-4 was expensive, just lost control and crashed into the gulf for reasons unknown (similar happened to one of Japan's recently fwiw). The E-3 was slated for retirement shortly, and the KC-135's ran into each other (another lost on the ground).

It's absolutely astounding how ineffective Iranian air defenses were/are. The Saudi's managed to lose an F-15 to the Houthi's this month while flying a miniscule percentage of missions vs. what we did over Iran. The overall loss rate for USAF/USN must have approached per flying hour what normal training losses would be, in equipment/air frames.

Today, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, we engaged in lengthy talks with the Iranian delegation through the mediators, who shuttled between the two sides throughout the day. They successfully completed a round of discussions that we hope will prove…

— Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (@SEPeaceMissions) September 22, 2026

So, nothing, in other words.

ETA: the MQ-9's are not in production, replacements are supposedly going to be cheaper, likewise we destroyed the MC-130's when they got stuck. I don't think the E-3, MC-130's, MQ-9's, MQ-4, AH-64 nor F-15's will wind up getting 'replaced' in any case.

When are we going to accept that you cannot deal with Iran?

MagnumLoad said:

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So things haven't changed since 1500 BC.

Edited to add that the Houthis are acting as our enemy and I would treat them as such despite the civil war. I might even support the other side.

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The USA is supporting the "legitimate" government of Yemen-

while the Houthis are the breakaway rebellion against the government of Yemen.

The Saudis, UAE and Gulf support the government while the Houthis are supported by Iran.

Yemen has been a basket case worse than Afghanistan since the 1950s when Gamal Abdel Nasser invaded and created a "union" with Yemen and the Egyptian Arab Republic in the 1960s

Indeed, if legit

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-909499

That's one of the few Sunni majority areas in Iran and they've had trouble with separatists in that province for a while. I thought when this all kicked off that may be the first province to really get hot in terms of internal fighting. Possible it's been going on but the Iranian media isn't going to report on it.

Iranian media did report it.

I know I was referring more to what's been going on in that region since the war started. There's probably been a lot of unrest that has gone unreported. They were having issues even before the war.

Yeah they have had trouble with Baluchestan for a long time. Need to see that spread.

More flight cancellations. I saw a flight had to turn around due to Azerbaijan denying airspace to it.

Bessent on Iran:

The external flights from Iran, probably more than 80 or 90% of them, got shut down. I'm not sure how the Iranian representatives at the UN are going to get home.pic.twitter.com/yytvPcMbEQ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 23, 2026

LMCane said:

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MagnumLoad said:

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So things haven't changed since 1500 BC.

Edited to add that the Houthis are acting as our enemy and I would treat them as such despite the civil war. I might even support the other side.

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The USA is supporting the "legitimate" government of Yemen-

while the Houthis are the breakaway rebellion against the government of Yemen.

The Saudis, UAE and Gulf support the government while the Houthis are supported by Iran.

Yemen has been a basket case worse than Afghanistan since the 1950s when Gamal Abdel Nasser invaded and created a "union" with Yemen and the Egyptian Arab Republic in the 1960s

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The Houthis captured all the major population centers long ago. They are the government. Remnants of the old regime exist in small pockets and their low intensity conflict exists only to launder money from the west and other gulf states.

jt2hunt said:

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BREAKING: Iranian freedom fighters have ambushed and killed IRGC commander Hossein Zarifi in the Baluchistan region.

Iran will soon be free from the Islamic regime! pic.twitter.com/XPJhIxt0FX

— Dr. Maalouf ‏ (@realMaalouf) September 23, 2026

Seems significant

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Is this the guy that has been claimed dead multiple times already?

Fly to Pakistan, drive or rail in. People can still travel in and out of Iran. It is just less convenient.

Especially when who your'e talking with has no control
Over what may be multiple groups that have the weapons . .

I'm thinking that may be the primary issue with Trump's slow playing . They don't have a clear picture of who has what weaponry and who they answer to if anybody.

Take out pipelines ( which puts out the lights), key bridges , trains, airports , and any tunnels you know of . Then hit anything you want to that remains and shows light or heat signature . They need power to launch weapons with i suppose the exception of drones and hand helds.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Fly to Pakistan, drive or rail in. People can still travel in and out of Iran. It is just less convenient.

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If the news about Zarifi is true (and I have no way of knowing) traveling cross country from Pakistan sounds like a bad idea.

The lasers have been deployed… https://t.co/Lxn9HleJbS pic.twitter.com/1e7zmOqQTX

— The Reckoning 💥 (@sethjlevy) September 24, 2026

That's pretty cool.

BIG: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan are convening an urgent chiefs-of-staff meeting under their Mecca Joint Defence Pact after intensifying Houthi attacks on Saudi territory.

This is the first activation-level move under the pact, which treats an attack on one as an attack… pic.twitter.com/G8ALLdzO79

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 25, 2026

Within a few yrs there will be even more pipeline alternatives.

A solution which Saudi, Kuwait and Iraq should explore, is to pipe out their oil to Ras Markaz, Oman; which faces the Arabian Sea. It is a relatively new oil terminal and for a country that may run out of oil in just 13 years, Oman would probably be happy to see transit revenue. https://t.co/uSN8JSagZo pic.twitter.com/NwxNdokITA

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) September 24, 2026