Expansion of the war? Smoke seen rising from Riyadh airport vicinity and flights have been cancelled:

After a widespread State Department alert for the Middle East, U.S. President Donald J. Trump is set to return early from Camp David, citing the potential for significant escalation in the region due to the Houthi’s attacks against Saudi Arabia, the president will return early… pic.twitter.com/52k9XFyxls

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 19, 2026

The Saudis should seriously consider bringing in some mercenaries at this point. They clearly don't know how to play the game.

javajaws said:

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The Saudis should seriously consider bringing in some mercenaries at this point. They clearly don't know how to play the game.

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They have mercs. They are called the Pakistanis. And the Paks are refusing to play.

https://aje.news/xib2xq?update=4966260

Tuekey and Egypt going with the Saudis

I think something's about to go down

The Fall Guy said:

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https://aje.news/xib2xq?update=4966260

Tuekey and Egypt going with the Saudis

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Can't trust Turkey

Exactly right.

A journalism note on today's Washington Post article that the Saudis are privately furious that Trump won't give the Kingdom more military help against the Houthis. Let's get real. I have written a book about Saudi Arabia and this is the template they have used for decades, to… pic.twitter.com/xWe8iE0UZr

— Gerald Posner (@geraldposner) September 19, 2026

Pissing on the Saudi's is perhaps the best thing Trump has done all year, imho.

Rocky Rider said:

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This sums up KSA. Their men are weak

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True, but forget the Saudis and Houthis. The most effecient way we can help is to cut off the head off the snake. If something is brewing in Washington, hopefully it's an escalation strategy laser focused on crushing the IRGC. We can deal with the Houthis later.

The Houthis will go away (like Hez and Hamas have gone away) once the weapons transfer from Iran goes away. And that had gone away. They can use what they have but they can't replace it. The question is how many ABMs do they have left to throw at Mecca and Riyadh?

The Israelis may have to intervene militarily to save their bacon.

Here's a wild prediction for how this war ends.

The UN is meeting this week. Iranian foreign minister and president have been granted visas. Trump and Xi meet in Washington on Thursday.

I wouldn't surprised if there is a secret meeting between the Iranian president and Trump. It's getting painful on both side this game of chicken. Both sides I think would be more agreeable to terms discussed back in April.

Iran is going to get sanctions relief but they don't control the strait like they've been wanting and some nuclear safeguards get thrown in.

This thing ends. Huge market rally, prices decline, Trump can claim a W.

Times have changed. During WWII we often let cities know we were coming and that anyone left would be considered an enemy. Then we went to a 1:1 enemy to civilian kill ratio around Vietnam. Between then and the end of GWOT that number kept shifting from 3:1, 10:1, 30:1, and I think it was 50:1. The enemy knows this which is why they put launchers around schools and hospitals.

The last time a large portion of the Middle East had true peace was when Israel would be in places like Lebanon and would kill everyone if Israelis civilians were attacked. This included women and children. The UN was not happy with this so Israel pulled out, few short years after the Beruit bombings happened under American control.

We can easily defeat the enemy but most people won't like the reality and Iran knows this. As others mentioned cheap, mass produced drones changed the landscape.

Dan Scott said:

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Here's a wild prediction for how this war ends.

The UN is meeting this week. Iranian foreign minister and president have been granted visas. Trump and Xi meet in Washington on Thursday.

I wouldn't surprised if there is a secret meeting between the Iranian president and Trump. It's getting painful on both side this game of chicken. Both sides I think would be more agreeable to terms discussed back in April.

Iran is going to get sanctions relief but they don't control the strait like they've been wanting and some nuclear safeguards get thrown in.

This thing ends. Huge market rally, prices decline, Trump can claim a W.

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Here's a not so wild development that occurs 48 hours after your wild prediction. Iran violates whatever is agreed to, launches more attacks against its neighbors then claim how they had Trump begging for a deal and they told him to get bent.

Also, the Iranian president and foreign minister do not speak for the IRGC, so I don't see that scenario happening.

But, if a deal happens and markets roll, then that is okay as Rs stack huge gains in the house and senate and Trump get back to bombing Iran on November 4th.

Rocky Rider said:

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"The Saudis have spent half a century using petrodollars to buy the best weapons money can buy, then hiring the United States as a personal protection force to actually use them. They don't want to fight. They want someone else to fight for them while they sit back and count the oil money."

This sums up KSA. Their men are weak

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They should give those toys to Israel and watch what they do with them and Iran

NY Times: Trump told the Pentagon on Thursday to prepare for airstrikes against the Houthis. But by Sunday he appeared to have reversed his decision. "There would be no U.S. airstrikes against the Houthis -- at least not for the time being...Trump’s decision to pull back from, or… pic.twitter.com/WtfNfaiEse

— Steve Lookner (@lookner) September 21, 2026

Over the last 12 hours, two US and Israeli drones were reportedly shot down by Iranian air defences over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Army air defences shot down an Israeli "Orbiter" drone over the Strait of Hormuz, with the debris falling in a coastal area of southeastern… pic.twitter.com/Nib7K32KI0

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) September 21, 2026

They also hit a tanker, though it just continued under it's own power I read.

I don’t know what this is, or if it’s legit BUT remember we are in a new age of misdirection, decoy and guile. Specifically using low end drone technology. There are more ways to stimulate an enemy air defense system, distract a populous, assess the flow of public info from a… https://t.co/wW7YVlbayB

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) September 21, 2026

No clue, could be AI/fake.

Posner is better than most - at least he attempts to investigate before scribing. However, Posner claiming Saudi was "dragged deeper into a fight it didn't start" is a half-truth. Saudi broke the '22 truce in July when it hit the Sanaa airport. Both have been guilty of escalating ever since.

A lot of media coverage today about the escalating tough language from both Washington and Tehran. Some quick thoughts on where this actually goes next.

Seven months into the war, both sides are talking louder, not less. Trump told Axios he’s facing a “big decision” on whether…

— Gerald Posner (@geraldposner) September 20, 2026

I like his statement on "quick thoughts of where this goes next" and then tells us he has no idea where this goes next. Because no one does. His subsequent outcomes he writes all offset one another so you end up with no thoughts on where this goes next.

Amusing.

Not entirely sure this constitutes military action, but Trump and Bessent have brought a new way of messing with Iran.
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2026/09/21/this-move-against-iran-may-just-be-one-of-the-best-trump-trolls-ever-n2207195

🚨 BREAKING: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent just sent CHILLS down Iran's spine, saying EVERY IRANIAN AIRLINE is being SHUT OFF effective Wednesday, Sep. 23 — and banks will CONTINUE being severed

ANY Iranian airline has to be shunned by the host airport, or they will be "KNOCKED… pic.twitter.com/WE3OtEs3J7

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 21, 2026

So Iran can attend the UN Summit, but they'll have to find a way home that doesn't involve flying out of NY

Lucy is teeing up the football again folks...

Breaking: Oil crashes below $91 after reports say Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases its military blockade. pic.twitter.com/cPI2ufcRZh

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) September 22, 2026

I really hope Trump doesn't take that offer. Oil is transiting the strait already at MOU levels, if not pre-war. They can't afford to pay their paramilitary thugs much longer unless we do 'relax' the blockade.

Some of the oil dropping though is related to the Saudi pipeline re-opening (partially) so fast.

🛢️ Brent crude fell below $98 a barrel today, down from nearly $109 a week earlier, after Saudi Arabia partially restarted its East-West oil pipeline.

The restart reduces fears of a major Saudi supply shortage, pushing oil prices lower, although full repairs could still take…

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 22, 2026

Rebuilding oil infrastructure damaged by the IRGC is obviously a focus, though I am not sure why the rich arab countries need our cash to do it.

US Seeks to Rebuild Gulf Energy Infrastructure With $5 Billion Fund

Washington is proposing a $5 billion reconstruction fund to rebuild war-damaged energy assets and develop routes that reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.https://t.co/EAw4ClR92E

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 22, 2026

Nm

It was a strategic error lifting the blockade the first time. That allowed this mess to drag out longer with Iran getting millions of barrels of oil out for sale. Trump should continue to message that we will keep the blockade in force indefinitely until the shipping lanes are free and safe from Iranian harassment regardless of current US politics. It is too late to really do anything about the politics of the midterm elections anyway. He needs to focus on crushing Iran economically by blockade because it is much more effective than sanctions and will cause enough pain that they will not play this game with the shipping lanes again.

We should have entered full economic war as soon as Iran started striking tankers in the Gulf of Hormuz and stating that Iran would control and toll access to the Gulf going forward. This is the best strategy since we are not committing ground troops to end this. I also hope that Israel, Lebanon, and Syria will end Hezbollah as an effective Iranian proxy before this is all over. Excellent progress has already been made on that front. A benefit of the blockade is that Iran can't resupply Hezbollah and Hamas as well.

Trump is giving a detailed recap of the lead up to the Iran conflict and why we took action and what we have accomplished. Whether you agree with his take or not or his rationale or not, it represents in his own words what has happened, is happening and hopefully some indication of what will happen.

Either watch it now or later. But if you are interested in this thread, seems like a great place to refresh on how we got here.

Exactly! Well said. The blockade and economic war stay in place until Iran provides satisfactory proof of their goodwill, good faith, ... and abandoning their nuclear program.

Trump UN speech said it all, damn with the midterms, Iran will submit.

benchmark said:

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Exactly! Well said. The blockade and economic war stay in place until Iran provides satisfactory proof of their goodwill, good faith, ... and abandoning their nuclear program.

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They can get enough in and out in a week to survive a bit longer then will start bombing again. Need to make it painful and longterm.