***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

696,006 Views | 3632 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by ErnestEndeavor
bonfarr
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We have to get to the point where Reza Pahlavi can be protected if he lands in Tehran to form a transitional government. I don't think we are close to that being the case and will need someone with enough clout to get the Basij and Islamists to stand down. Who is that person?
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be taken at face value.
LMCane
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bonfarr said:

We have to get to the point where Reza Pahlavi can be protected if he lands in Tehran to form a transitional government. I don't think we are close to that being the case and will need someone with enough clout to get the Basij and Islamists to stand down. Who is that person?


Or Pahlavi gets 1000 men and invades Iran from southern Azerbaijan and sets up near Tabriz with Israeli air support

then links up with the Kurds moving west to east towards Teheran

https://maps.app.goo.gl/NXP5QAVwXP2aLEjz5
Dan Scott
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halfastros81
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The Mullahs and iRGC must not have gotten the email about the code of Iranians not murdering other Iranians.
Dan Scott
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bonfarr said:

We have to get to the point where Reza Pahlavi can be protected if he lands in Tehran to form a transitional government. I don't think we are close to that being the case and will need someone with enough clout to get the Basij and Islamists to stand down. Who is that person?


In Iran, the rich guys have easy access to the government contracts. You'll have to give these guys a pass I think. I like how we've learned that you don't completely get rid of the bureaucracy and create a bunch of pissed off fired people. Give these guys assurances they won't be arrested or lose their wealth, they'll rally.

Iran is also very traditional culture. Normal Iranians aren't super religious but they are traditional. It can't go back to what is was during Shah when he's bragging about mini skirts shorter in Tehran than Paris or porno theaters.
Gaeilge
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From Twitter and was posted in Persian. Not sure of validity, but the injury stuff tracks.
ErnestEndeavor
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BadMoonRisin
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We just keep finding more naval ships now? I thought their entire navy was sunk at this point.
AgBQ-00
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could be reporting on previously engaged ships and confirming how they were engaged
God loves you so much He'll meet you where you are. He also loves you too much to allow to stay where you are.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
Rapier108
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ErnestEndeavor said:



Also showing off to China, who has had an anti-ship ICBM for a while now, the DF-21D.
Dan Scott
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Being reported now that his tweet is deleted.
twk
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Dan Scott said:



Being reported now that his tweet is deleted.

I don't think tankers are going to run the straits until we get this alternative insurance thing worked out, even with an armed escort. It could be a few weeks.
benchmark
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twk said:

I think the US is probably going to seize Kharg Island before the shooting stops, so as to seize control over Iranian oil production (94% of their oil passes through this terminal). The Chinese don't give them money for nothing, they exchange money for oil.

Kharg can only export what it receives from offsite sources (i.e. offshore production platforms, onshore oil terminals, etc.).
MagnumLoad
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As long as our navy controls the water, we don't need boots on the island, and we would have to control the water even if we did occupy the island.
twk
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benchmark said:

twk said:

I think the US is probably going to seize Kharg Island before the shooting stops, so as to seize control over Iranian oil production (94% of their oil passes through this terminal). The Chinese don't give them money for nothing, they exchange money for oil.

Kharg can only export what it receives from offsite sources (i.e. offshore production platforms, onshore oil terminals, etc.).

Correct. I'm not talking about taking their oil, merely the means to export it. It's not particularly well defended, but without it, the Iranians would have a hard time selling oil to China. If you want to put pressure on the regime, that's probably the best way to do it.
ErnestEndeavor
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sam callahan
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How is a boat capable of deploying mines not an incredibly easy target for us, especially if Iran doesn't have a navy?
txags92
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sam callahan said:

How is a boat capable of deploying mines not an incredibly easy target for us, especially if Iran doesn't have a navy?

Should have a fleet of Reapers up there with hellfires just waiting for those opportunities.
Prosperdick
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ErnestEndeavor said:



The phrasing of that post makes my BS detector go off. Either Iran is lying about it which wouldn't surprise anyone or it's being leaked for profit from investors.
AgBQ-00
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Prosperdick said:

ErnestEndeavor said:



The phrasing of that post makes my BS detector go off. Either Iran is lying about it which wouldn't surprise anyone or it's being leaked for profit from investors.

Or they are trying to maintain the market uncertainty for political purposes
God loves you so much He'll meet you where you are. He also loves you too much to allow to stay where you are.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
American Hardwood
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Prosperdick said:

ErnestEndeavor said:



The phrasing of that post makes my BS detector go off. Either Iran is lying about it which wouldn't surprise anyone or it's being leaked for profit from investors.

Yeah, unnamed intelligence sources have "begun to see indications" is vague AF.
The best way to keep evil men from wielding great power is to not create great power in the first place.
ABATTBQ11
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sam callahan said:

How is a boat capable of deploying mines not an incredibly easy target for us, especially if Iran doesn't have a navy?


Could be using subs.
ttu_85
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ErnestEndeavor said:



CBS is as usual, so stupid. China, Iran's ally, would take the biggest hit. If Iran does this, which I doubt, they are simply trying to burn the world down
txags92
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ABATTBQ11 said:

sam callahan said:

How is a boat capable of deploying mines not an incredibly easy target for us, especially if Iran doesn't have a navy?


Could be using subs.

Could be starting to load them into trucks and drive them to docks. Probably still opportunity to stop them before they are actually deployed based on that ambiguous language.
laavispa
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The Israelis and Trump may have differing definitions of success in Iran. For example in the article " When should the Iran war end? Achievements, risks, and the path forward - analysis" WHEN there are a number of revelations including analysis of manpower.

" In his 2021 book Empire of Terror, former senior US Defense Department intelligence official Mark Silinsky estimated that Iran's military had around 400,000 fighters, that the IRGC had around 125,000, and that the Basij had between one and two million, of which 200,000 were hardcore members."

In addition, the article makes these observations:

Achievements

Out of the Islamic Republic's 2,500 missiles at the start of this war, over 1,000, likely between half and two-thirds, have been used or destroyed.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with the chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the chief of the Iranian military, and an additional 50-plus top Iranian officials, have been killed, mostly in the opening hours of the war on February 28.

Iran's ballistic missile launches have dropped by about 90% from the first day of the war across the Middle East including attacks on roughly a dozen Sunni countries while the number of missiles fired at Israel has declined by roughly 75-90%, depending on the day.

Of Iran's roughly 450-500 missile launchers, about 75% are now out of commission roughly half destroyed outright and the other half rendered unusable by cave-ins or logistical damage caused by airstrikes.

What remains is the Islamic Theocracy of Iran's desire to bring the return of the 12th Iman and establish the supremacy of the Dar al Islam through a decisive battle (Armageddon). Which means we goanna have to do this again.

The Article is worth the read.
--------------
Nobody with open eyes can any longer doubt that the danger to personal freedom comes chiefly from the left. F. A. Hayek



GAC06
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I heard that we took out at least one of their Kilo's. They supposedly have 20 midget subs that can lay mines. Don't know how many were operational at the start or that we've taken out. They can only carry two torpedoes so presumably they can't lay many mines (maybe just one or two?)
Dan Scott
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ABATTBQ11
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txags92 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

sam callahan said:

How is a boat capable of deploying mines not an incredibly easy target for us, especially if Iran doesn't have a navy?


Could be using subs.

Could be starting to load them into trucks and drive them to docks. Probably still opportunity to stop them before they are actually deployed based on that ambiguous language.


Yeah. Could be a lot of things.
samurai_science
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ttu_85 said:

ErnestEndeavor said:



CBS is as usual, so stupid. China, Iran's ally, would take the biggest hit. If Iran does this, which I doubt, they are simply trying to burn the world down

Its fake news, 100%
RangerRick9211
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txags92 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

sam callahan said:

How is a boat capable of deploying mines not an incredibly easy target for us, especially if Iran doesn't have a navy?

Could be using subs.

Could be starting to load them into trucks and drive them to docks. Probably still opportunity to stop them before they are actually deployed based on that ambiguous language.

I reading up on the Tanker Wars yesterday.

In '87 the Iranian freighter Ajar was "re-supplying" offshore platforms and dropping a mine here and there. One of the mines eventually struck the USS Samual B. Roberts.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-09-26-mn-2495-story.html

So maybe another "commercial" boat that just so happens drop a few mines here and there.
ErnestEndeavor
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Apart from the Navy ships we've blown up a few of their tankers in the last 48 hours. Maybe that's why.
Dan Scott
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samurai_science
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Inactive.....so the mining story is BS
The Fall Guy
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Iran says they are not seeking a ceasefire.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-parliament-speaker-says-we-arent-seeking-a-ceasefire/
halfastros81
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So I guess we just keep pounding then until they have nothing left and then they will cease fire by default?
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