***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

3,009,756 Views | 13864 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by nortex97
The Fall Guy
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Nothing about it being reported anymore. Who knows.
flashplayer
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I think that was a duplicate report from earlier in the day. I saw that come across the wire too but was never able to verify it since with any reliable source.
flown-the-coop
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I am posting the below not as political commentary but on how difficult it is to get an accurate picture of what it's like inside Iran.

Victor Davis Hanson is well known if not well respected. He was on Kudlow and discussing that UN has reports of folks facing food shortages and starving. I had not heard that, so quick Grok+ says no, it's not happening.

Asked Grok to try harder and come up with the below. Shows even someone like VDH can twist things a bit to support a position. Nothing he said was technically untrue, but conflating separate sources and reports can lead to odd summations.

The truth is people are likely suffering, but there are no UN reports of such as of now.

I am oft critical of sources and propaganda. This is a solid acknowledgment it works both ways and sources are crucial and criticism of sources vital.

Quote:


Is the UN reporting that Iranians are starving?
Short answer: No. Victor Davis Hanson has been saying on Fox Business / Daily Signal that Iranians are short of food, water, and fuel and that starvation could trigger an uprising. That is his analysis of the blockade and sanctions. It is not a UN finding that the Iranian population is now starving.

What Hanson actually said…

Sept. 4 Daily Signal: Trump's "anaconda" squeeze; people facing the choice of being slaughtered or starving; hypothetical of "thousands of them are starving" heading for the IRGC.https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/09/04/hanson-trumps-bessents-anaconda-strategy/

Sept. 8 Daily Signal: "the Iranian people are now short of food, they're short of water, they're short of fuel."https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/09/08/hanson-iranian-people-overthrow/

Middle East Forum (Sept. 2) made a similar "next crisis: starvation" argument. That is commentary, not a UN report.https://www.meforum.org/mef-online/the-next-iran-crisis-starvation

What the UN is actually reporting
WFP/FAO hunger reports treat the Iran war (Hormuz, oil, fertilizer, shipping) as a driver of global hunger in already-fragile countries. Iran itself is not on the hotspot lists (Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen, Gaza, Nigeria, Somalia, etc.).

AP: UN food agency says millions pushed into hunger by the Iran war (Somalia, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka)https://apnews.com/article/un-food-hunger-iran-mideast-somalia-afghanistan-ac6e40407199fec6ce12ee0812cd7a87

AP / UN News: FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots, June 2026 13 hotspots; Iran not listedhttps://apnews.com/article/fao-wfp-hunger-report-famine-sudan-yemen-gaza-a399839162c23531efc3e096d7d69b76https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/06/1167742

Guardian: WFP on historic global hunger levels tied to the Middle East conflict and oil spikehttps://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/may/27/us-israel-war-on-iran-driving-historic-levels-of-global-hunger-un-says

Inside Iran, UN agencies say something narrower
WFP's Iran operation is still mainly refugees in settlements (~35,000 people), not the general population. Humanitarian updates describe markets as functional and food available, with the real pressure coming from inflation and the collapsing rial.

WFP Iran Country Brief, June 2026https://reliefweb.int/report/iran-islamic-republic/wfp-iran-country-brief-june-2026-reporting-period-may-2026

Tehran Times summary of WFP July activity in Iranhttps://www.tehrantimes.com/news/529621/WFP-releases-July-report-on-Iran

World Hunger News (July 26) compilation: food supply recovered; household security worse because of inflation; child malnutrition worst in Sistan-Baluchestan; Iran welfare food baskets for ~181,000 malnourished kidshttps://www.worldhunger.org/update-about-hunger-war-in-iran/

Bottom line
Hanson is describing economic collapse and arguing the squeeze will produce shortages and possibly revolt. The UN is reporting that the war is making poor countries hungrier, and that Iran has high food inflation and pockets of child malnutritionnot a declared famine or "Iranians are starving." Those are two different claims.
lb3
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Any revolt in Iran will go about as well as in Venezuela where the average BMI probably dropped into the teens.

Starving people may be angry, but they're easy to control.
txags92
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lb3 said:

Any revolt in Iran will go about as well as in Venezuela where the average BMI probably dropped into the teens.

Starving people may be angry, but they're easy to control.

As long as you have food to offer the ones who behave well. When you run out of food to buy them off with, and can't pay/feed your shock troops either, things get a bit more dicey.
flown-the-coop
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Iran out with another very serious warning.

ErnestEndeavor
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What navy?
flown-the-coop
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ErnestEndeavor said:

What navy?
Navy Goats?

Perhaps they misinterpreted the Naval Academy's mascot.
An L of an Ag
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lb3 said:

Any revolt in Iran will go about as well as in Venezuela where the average BMI probably dropped into the teens.

Starving people may be angry, but they're easy to control.


And they have no weapons. That's kind of a prerequisite for a successful revolution.
flown-the-coop
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Regarding Irans ability to strike, I would always hesitate to say they have no way to fight back. A caged rabid beast is entirely unpredictable and become moreso as they face hunger and ultimately demise with ever fewer options.

Hamas did a desperation attack just a few years ago. And whilst the consequences for them was severe, the terror they managed to inflict is something I would not want to see again
TRM
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https://www.reuters.com/world/multiple-us-military-aircraft-suffered-damage-overnight-strikes-on-jordan-air-2026-09-10/
Quote:


Multiple American military aircraft suffered damage in strikes overnight on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs said on Wednesday on X.
One A-10 Thunderbolt, known as the Warthog, was struck and left with a missing wing, while roughly eight F-15s sustained light damage and were placed back into service, she added.

nortex97
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The blockade in real time:


Centcom helps under cover of night (around 7 minutes):

Whole video is pretty good coverage/data.
benchmark
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Quote:

Probably best to just assume Trump is gonna see the Iran thing through now and not wait until post Eday. The Iranian rial is in systemic collapse and lost 2% if its value in the last 24 hours alone

Everyone is predicting "total economic collapse" - but what does that really look like? Assuming humanitarian aid (food and medical) will be allowed to pass through the strait - how bad is bad and is it bad enough?
YouBet
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We have setback in Yemen.

Quote:

Iran-backed Houthi militants seized the strategic port city of Mokha on Yemen's west coast Thursday, Yemeni and Saudi officials said, further expanding their control near the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint for energy exports through the Red Sea.

The successful advance deepens the threat to Saudi oil exports at a time when Iran is crimping shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. Saudi Arabia had kept its exports up by piping crude across the desert to the Red Sea, but Houthi attacks have complicated that workaround.
halfastros81
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Once they fired on our warships the gloves should come off. No targets off limits and collateral damage of no consequence. Jmo.
nortex97
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Frustrating. Pipelines are also pretty easy targets, though surface ones can be repaired fairly quickly (if not being shot at).
The Fall Guy
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nortex97 said:


Frustrating. Pipelines are also pretty easy targets, though surface ones can be repaired fairly quickly (if not being shot at).


Only way to stop this is the Pakis getting involved in this
agent-maroon
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Quote:

Only way to stop this is the Pakis getting involved in this

Curious as to why Pakistani involvement is so critical?
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Pichael Thompson
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Bc Saudi is inept at everything other than funding terrorists
nortex97
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Sauds have always been cowards, since mohammed was fabricated. That won't change in this conflict.
The Fall Guy
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agent-maroon said:

Quote:

Only way to stop this is the Pakis getting involved in this

Curious as to why Pakistani involvement is so critical?


Because they have a pact if one or the other gets attacked the other should come to their aid
EastSideAg2002
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agent-maroon said:

Quote:

Only way to stop this is the Pakis getting involved in this

Curious as to why Pakistani involvement is so critical?


Do the sauds even fight in their own military? Pact is probably sauds hiring Pakistani mercenary army.
schmendeler
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[You've been warned multiple times about trolling this thread. Your timeouts will double in length if you continue with the behavior -- Staff]
ABATTBQ11
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Don't touch our boats. Don't even look at them.
Ag with kids
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nortex97 said:

Sauds have always been cowards, since mohammed was fabricated. That won't change in this conflict.


WSMR is awesome!
You can turn off signatures, btw
Rossticus
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nortex97
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Sauds did launch air strikes, but it wasn't enough apparently.


Pathetic.
sts7049
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next target should be some of their refining capability

P.U.T.U
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nortex97 said:

Sauds did launch air strikes, but it wasn't enough apparently.


Pathetic.


Thought Saudi had an agreement with Pakistan and Turkey. Where are they?
Twisted Helix
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From the comments:

'Saudi has been spending billions on weapons for decades now. Only to be humiliated by cave dwelling rats."

I wonder if Saudi could fall if left to their own devices.









nortex97
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Oh they do. And for some reason the Pakistanis are saying they haven't been asked to help while trying to stay friends with the Iranians and the Turks haven't said a word because Israel isn't involved.

I think 'our friends' the Saudis actually have the largest air force in the region, maybe second to Israel. The Saudi's made their problem with Trump already.
Quote:

A Middle Eastern intelligence official told The Times of Israel that relations between the two countries have substantially soured because of the war, partly confirming a Wall Street Journal report on Wednesday.
Saudi Arabia refused to allow the US to use its bases to conduct Project Freedom, which was aimed at breaking Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz by escorting stuck ships out of the channel.

Saudi bases and airspace were critical to the operation and Riyadh's refusal to cooperate forced the US to abort the mission, the WSJ revealed. At the time, US President Donald Trump claimed that it was progress in talks with Iran that led him to call off Project Freedom after less than two days.

Infuriated by the Saudi decision, the White House threatened to hold back the delivery of interceptors that Riyadh had been using to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones, WSJ said, citing US and Arab officials familiar with the matter.

And while Trump has been criticized for the MoU period where Iran restarted oil trade for 2 months, keep in mind that blockade lift was pushed by 'our friends.'
Quote:

Saudi Arabia took particular issue with continued Emirati attacks on Iran, fearing that it put regional energy facilities at further risk.

Riyadh wanted the US to pressure the UAE to halt its attacks and join regional diplomatic efforts to end the war, WSJ reported.

Abu Dhabi's hardline stance against Iran further exacerbated tensions with Saudi Arabia that have been bubbling for the past year. The UAE pulled out of the Saudi-led OPEC in April.

Saudi Arabia also pushed the US during the war to drop its blockade of Iranian ports, something that Trump refused to do until a deal was reached last month.

nortex97
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Quote:

This is the call after the refusal.

In May, Trump announced Project Freedom on Truth Social… US escorts through Hormuz. Saudi hadn't signed off. Riyadh then closed Prince Sultan and the airspace to the US. Trump had to pause a branded operation within 36 hours and never said why in public.

In July MBS wanted political cover to hit Sanaa and said Saudi did not need American planes. Trump gave it. Then that same month Trump made the nuclear deal contingent on the Abraham Accords. Saudi still said no.

Now the Houthis have Mocha, the Red Sea is the remaining oil route, and MBS wants US strikes after all.

Trump offering intel and keeping US jets out of this is not a mystery. He already got walked back in public once. Saudi embarrassed Trump on a public stage. He is not going to put his name on their air war. And Trump is right to do this. Let the Arabs fight their own wars. They don't get to pick and choose when they use the US for their convenience.

Exactly right.
The Fall Guy
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nortex97 said:


Quote:

This is the call after the refusal.

In May, Trump announced Project Freedom on Truth Social… US escorts through Hormuz. Saudi hadn't signed off. Riyadh then closed Prince Sultan and the airspace to the US. Trump had to pause a branded operation within 36 hours and never said why in public.

In July MBS wanted political cover to hit Sanaa and said Saudi did not need American planes. Trump gave it. Then that same month Trump made the nuclear deal contingent on the Abraham Accords. Saudi still said no.

Now the Houthis have Mocha, the Red Sea is the remaining oil route, and MBS wants US strikes after all.

Trump offering intel and keeping US jets out of this is not a mystery. He already got walked back in public once. Saudi embarrassed Trump on a public stage. He is not going to put his name on their air war. And Trump is right to do this. Let the Arabs fight their own wars. They don't get to pick and choose when they use the US for their convenience.

Exactly right.


Time for the Pakis and Turkey to use that pact they just signed. I agree that Trump was embarrassed so oh well. Same as Israel not helping the US anymore after the stoppage of going after Iran.
txags92
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Twisted Helix said:

From the comments:

'Saudi has been spending billions on weapons for decades now. Only to be humiliated by cave dwelling rats."

I wonder if Saudi could fall if left to their own devices.

The problem with the Saudi Air Force is that most of the pilot positions are awarded based on relationship to the royal family and not based on any level of pilot skill or any desire to do the hard work necessary to actually be a good pilot. They have a bunch of spoiled princes and other royal hangers on who love to shoot gunnery practice and know very little else about how to actually utilize the various systems in their planes. When it comes to being in the air with them, they would likely be more danger than help to any US campaign.

Turkey has no interest in picking a fight with Iran given their relationship with Iran's Russian benefactors. And Pakistan has too much cross border trade with Iran and a vulnerable land boundary they don't want to jeopardize by joining any attacks.
nortex97
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Yes that's all true. The Saudi's also don't even maintain their planes, they hire the American/Euro contractors to do it for them. It is by far the most hollow significant air force on earth that is utterly paper thin in real world combat capabilities.

Mokha/Mocha Island would be indefensible by the Houthi's vs. a serious military strike/power. But it's a clown show on both sides in/around Yemen.
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