javajaws said:
Trump's problem is that he continually undervalues Iran's ability to withstand a little military and economic pain. He's treating them like they are a first world country when they aren't.
1) You can't negotiate with terrorists, especially when said terrorists don't collectively speak with one voice
2) You can't out-wait them. Their leadership has all the power and will take everything they can to remain comfortable and in-control until total collapse.
3) Their religion is a stronger driver for them to keep resisting than anything we have on our side (economy and elections).
The only way to make progress that doesn't involve just pulling out of the region entirely is to further degrade their military, economy, and infrastructure until total collapse is imminent.
Bingo.
True cult religion fanatics are gonna fanatic.
The region is about to see a lot more waw-waw and a lot less jaw-jaw for awhile. (Churchhill reference).
The Iranian regime is essentially saying: "You hit us with some hard, stinging jabs to the face in Round 1 last summer. Then you punched the hell out of us in Round 2 in March. Yawn. Let's get back in the ring and see what else you got. Send in 150,000 ground troops. We dare you."
The U.S. can't afford to back down now. We must hit them hard.
Militarily-speaking, now would be a wise time to replace Hegseth with a seasoned, Middle East region war-experienced, objective, top-quality professional as SecDef. This conflict is now on a path that may quickly escalate into a fullscale ground war with tens of thousands of U.S. ground troops.
Iran will attempt some punches of their own. Completely closing the SoH is the most obvious objective for the Iranians to try. Another important one is their capability to destroy or significantly damage infrastructure in UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia.
Trump and Netanyahu started a hot war. They thought it would be over in 6 to 8 weeks. But now it could go on for years if the IRGC and Iranian military refuse to submit to U.S. demands. It is what it is. We should commit fully now to war, imo, and use force to cause regime change.
