From his lips to Yahweh's ears...

Gaeilge said:

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FWIW

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This fits exactly with what I was saying. China is better off looking for what's next and trying to get a seat at the table than they are trying to prop up a regime that is literally hated by 95% of the world.

Without big support from China, Iran as it is today won't last much longer.

Yesterday, an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel tried to evade the U.S. blockade after leaving Bandar Abbas, exiting the Strait of Hormuz, and transiting along the Iranian coastline. The guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) successfully redirected the vessel, which is… pic.twitter.com/EUnwhwYiDv

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 15, 2026

🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW dropped this epic moment:

"Do not attempt to breach the blockade. Vessels will be boarded for interdiction and seizure transiting to or from an Iranian port. Turn around and prepare to be boarded!"

"If you do not comply with this blockade, we will… pic.twitter.com/k02jVlTOLM

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 15, 2026

nortex97 said:

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Mandeb is vastly less critical vs. Hormuz. It's costlier but major freight carriers were already sailing around Africa to avoid it for much of the past few years (since O7). And the Saudi's/arabs/Israelis may just decide to go 'big' vs. the Houthis at some point. Would be amusing.

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Not really. The Red Sea becomes more critical if 7 mbd of Saudi crude has been diverted to their Red Sea port at Yanbu. That's almost all of Saudi's export volume with 5 mbd having go through the Mandab to Asia.

OTOH, the Houthis would be wise to notice that Israel and the Gulf states are the new sheriff in town. Iran just had a frontal lobotomy and isn't going to resupply them anytime soon - if ever. Being Iran's lackey won't go unnoticed by nearby Saudi and the UAE.

Oil shipped from Yanbu doesn't have to go south; much of it will go north. Going that way adds costs for exports to Asia, but it does not shut doesn't shut down or decrease the flow into the world crude market. It might make some Asian buyers look more to the US, and more Saudi oil go to Europe, but the market would balance that out.

benchmark said:

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nortex97 said:

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Mandeb is vastly less critical vs. Hormuz. It's costlier but major freight carriers were already sailing around Africa to avoid it for much of the past few years (since O7). And the Saudi's/arabs/Israelis may just decide to go 'big' vs. the Houthis at some point. Would be amusing.

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Not really. The Red Sea becomes more critical if 7 mbd of Saudi crude has been diverted to their Red Sea port at Yanbu. That's almost all of Saudi's export volume with 5 mbd having go through the Mandab to Asia.

OTOH, the Houthis would be wise to notice that Israel and the Gulf states are the new sheriff in town. Iran just had a frontal lobotomy and isn't going to resupply them anytime soon - if ever. Being Iran's lackey won't go unnoticed by nearby Saudi and the UAE.

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But that oil can go right out the Suez Canal...

Arabs are sick of the mullahs;

US Treasury Secretary Bessent:

We are seeking to freeze more Iranian leadership funds, Iran's neighbors more transparent now on Iran banking. pic.twitter.com/isa7JhiWVq

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) April 15, 2026

This is perhaps nearly half as significant financially as the blockade itself, imho.

Ag with kids said:

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But that oil can go right out the Suez Canal...

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Yes, and Cape of Africa transit if needed. Ditto equiv to Cape Horn transit vs Panama Canal . Regardless, the Mandab is critical if 5 mpd is added to Asia's crude transit needs

Mathguy64 said:

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I don't think that's going to cut it. If they can even find it or dig it out, giving it to Putin isn't going to work.

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If this is the plan it's a terrible idea
At a time Russia is on the ropes in Ukraine it throws them a life line.

We need to be isolating these countries not uniting them
Do we all of sudden trust the Russians to be honest ?

how would we know if all of the Uraniom was accounted for ? I don't think there is any consensus on how much they had

I think that was what Iran may have said, it ain't happening. Iran still thinking they will draw up terms of US surrender.

Trump has told Dutch officials at a private dinner event that he wants the Iran war to end quickly and plans to do it via a increasing squeeze on the Iranian economy causing them to come to the negotiating table with concessions-WSJ

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) April 15, 2026

🚨 The Islamic Republic is entering an economic death spiral it cannot withstand.

The warning signs are clear and accelerating:

⚪️ The Central Bank warns recovery could take up to 12 years, with inflation potentially reaching 180% and unemployment rising by another two million… https://t.co/tEu30szs6z pic.twitter.com/dvrnxK8wNG

— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) April 15, 2026

Latest from ISW

NEW | Evening Iran Update 🧵(1/3): US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on April 15 that no vessels had breached the blockade on Iranian ports during the first 48 hours of enforcement. CENTCOM stated that nine… https://t.co/PoDdAj9SzX pic.twitter.com/ml8yysYhyR

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 16, 2026

Interesting video of Iran's going economic problems and what might happen after the war is over.

China's foreign minister calls on Iran to allow for 'normal navigation' in the Strait of Hormuz.

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) April 16, 2026

Possible move to board/seize IRGC tankers globally now.

BREAKING 🔴🔴

USNAVCENT expands the Iran blockade worldwide. Iranian vessels, OFAC sanctioned ships, and suspected contraband carriers can now be boarded and seized by U.S. forces anywhere, with the move targeting Iran’s shadow fleet of more than 570 tankers.

Key points

•…

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 16, 2026

Yingst just reported Lebanon may join the Abraham accords.

IDF elite units such as MAGLAN and EGOZ

now doing the final clearing operations in the now former main Hizbullah capitol of Bint Jbeil in Lebanon:

#عاجل قوات وحدة ايغوز دمرت نحو 70 بنية تحتية لحزب الله الإرهابي في بنت جبيل خلال دقيقة واحدة فقط

🔸تعمل قوات لواء الكوماندوز تحت قيادة الفرقة 98 على تعميق العملية البرية المركزة وتدمير البنى التحتية الإرهابية في جنوب لبنان.

🔸في إطار نشاط عملياتي في منطقة قصبة عيناتا في منطقة… pic.twitter.com/V102ERlRva

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) April 16, 2026

I understood every word

maddiedou said:

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I understood every word

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Here ya go!

Quote:

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Breaking:
Forces from the Egoz Unit destroyed approximately 70 Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure sites in Bint Jbeil in just one minute.
Commando Brigade forces, under the command of the 98th Division, are continuing to deepen the focused ground operation and destroy terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
As part of an operational activity in the area of Ainata (Bint Jbeil region), Egoz Unit forces yesterday raided a combat zone used by Hezbollah terrorists. The forces found dozens of weapons that had been used by Hezbollah operatives to carry out terrorist attacks from within a civilian area.
Among the weapons found were RPG rockets, Kalashnikov rifles, ammunition, improvised explosive devices, an anti-aircraft missile, surveillance equipment, and combat gear.
At the same time, Maglan Unit forces eliminated a large number of militants who had been operating from that area against our forces.
After completing clearing operations, the forces destroyed approximately 70 infrastructure sites in just one minute.

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Wonder if they'll actually give him the Nobel finally if he brings true peace/stability to the ME. Kudos to him and Rubio. This is very impressive seeing it go down in real time.

BREAKING: President Trump says he is inviting Lebanon’s President Aoun and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu to the White House for the first talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983. pic.twitter.com/uVVyzNfl3r

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 16, 2026

Edit: Probably belongs on the other thread so I'll save the mods the work and remove it.

I think we are going to see how much of a bargaining chip the 60% Uranium always was for Iran.

Its value has never been higher as Mark Levin and others have convinced much of America that its equivalent to an imminent dirty IED or nuke. Its also an off ramp for Trump to claim he saved the world from nuclear holocaust.

The question is what does Iran get in return? Perma sanction relief and a new Hormuz revenue stream at minimum I would think. That would be much better than US taxpayer reparations.

MarvZindler said:

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I think we are going to see how much of a bargaining chip the 60% Uranium always was for Iran.

Its value has never been higher as Mark Levin and others have convinced much of America that its equivalent to an imminent dirty IED or nuke. Its also an off ramp for Trump to claim he saved the world from nuclear holocaust.

The question is what does Iran get in return? Perma sanction relief and a new Hormuz revenue stream at minimum I would think. That would be much better than US taxpayer reparations.

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Well, considering that Homuz is against international maritime law, I'm going to guess it will NOT be part of the deal.

If that is allowed, there will be other countries that want to do that for THEIR straits...

Gaeilge said:

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Wonder if they'll actually give him the Nobel finally if he brings true peace/stability to the ME. Kudos to him and Rubio. This is very impressive seeing it go down in real time.

BREAKING: President Trump says he is inviting Lebanon’s President Aoun and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu to the White House for the first talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983. pic.twitter.com/uVVyzNfl3r

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 16, 2026

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Yeah, this is a big deal. Well done Trump. Never thought I would see Lebanon and Israel working together to eliminate Hezbolla. There is no good reason those two countries shouldn't be strong allies.

Trump and Rubio are fundamentally transforming the Middle East and the entire global power structure.

I find it incredible no matter how much Israel pounds Hezbollah in Lebanon, over many years, there's always more--more cannon fodder, more leaders, more guns, more missiles, etc. Shows the extent to which it is just an extension of Iran, and its presence was either acquiesced in by the Lebanese, or they were too weak to stop it. Good on Trump, Israel and Lebanon for trying to wipe it out. Such a destabilizing force.

Jmo, I don't see a Hormuz toll. I do see sanctions removed on exports. They've been selling oil at well under market because of sanctions. Also don't see reparations of any kind. Trump needs to get the uranium.

MarvZindler said:

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I think we are going to see how much of a bargaining chip the 60% Uranium always was for Iran.

Its value has never been higher as Mark Levin and others have convinced much of America that its equivalent to an imminent dirty IED or nuke. Its also an off ramp for Trump to claim he saved the world from nuclear holocaust.

The question is what does Iran get in return? Perma sanction relief and a new Hormuz revenue stream at minimum I would think. That would be much better than US taxpayer reparations.

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The only answer should be that some Iranians get to live.

They have no real leverage now. Friendly ships are moving through the SoH. Iranian ships are being blockaded. China is giving them the Heisman, starvation is on the horizon, troops aren't getting paid, etc.. The next test will be what happens at the end of the ceasefire. We should continue to bomb and increase pressure at that point and see what capabilities Iran has left. Despite what Iran has believed and planned for, time is not on their side, it is on ours as long as Trump is in office.

I still wish we had an update on their water catastrophe that was supposed to come to a head 3 months ago.

If that is real, that's the biggest change event in this entire ordeal and it seems to have just disappeared as an issue. Things will fail overnight if that water issue is real.

YouBet said:

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I still wish we had an update on their water catastrophe that was supposed to come to a head 3 months ago.

If that is real, that's the biggest change event in this entire ordeal and it seems to have just disappeared as an issue. Things will fail overnight if that water issue is real.

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it is still bad but as usual the media amped it up for the clicks

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tehran-enters-sixth-consecutive-year-of-drought-as-dam-levels-drop/ar-AA20Rog1

Old Army Ghost said:

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YouBet said:

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I still wish we had an update on their water catastrophe that was supposed to come to a head 3 months ago.

If that is real, that's the biggest change event in this entire ordeal and it seems to have just disappeared as an issue. Things will fail overnight if that water issue is real.

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it is still bad but as usual the media amped it up for the clicks

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tehran-enters-sixth-consecutive-year-of-drought-as-dam-levels-drop/ar-AA20Rog1

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Well, that's good for the people then if it's not on the verge of collapse.

He Iranians flew an F4 and a Mig29 yesterday to escort the Pakistani generals to Tehran and now/also trying to dig out already.

Iran using ceasefire to dig out its missile bases https://t.co/CN48wP5aYu

— Mark R. Levin (@marklevinshow) April 16, 2026

Im just about certain we have more military targets to get after.

nortex97 said:

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He Iranians flew an F4 and a Mig29 yesterday to escort the Pakistani generals to Tehran and now/also trying to dig out already.

Iran using ceasefire to dig out its missile bases https://t.co/CN48wP5aYu

— Mark R. Levin (@marklevinshow) April 16, 2026

Im just about certain we have more military targets to get after.

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It's nice that the Iranians are moving all of that soil and debris. It will be less depth the next round of bunker busters will have to penetrate to continue the work!

At least eight vessels have crossed the US blockade line westbound since Monday and are heading for Iranian ports or to load Iranian cargohttps://t.co/3uM2EDzloq

— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) April 16, 2026

If it is this obvious to energy specialists, I sure hope the US Navy figures this out.

ALICIA (IMO: 9281695), a sanctioned VLCC, is getting ship-to-ship transfers with Iranian crude but used an AIS signal to go to Iraq.

This is how Iran will bypass the blockade. It will signal… pic.twitter.com/0p66YuC8Xv

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) April 16, 2026

I'm not sure if transferring ship to ship in the Persian gulf will really enable blockade-running.

There are only five VLCC supertankers in the world which have that superstructure (and we have photographed many from shores), and all five are owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company. This looks like DEEP SEA (9218492) transporting 2 million barrels of Iranian crude. https://t.co/Prluv0Rpvm

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 16, 2026

Executions (and Iraqi shia militias) being used to prevent an uprising vs. IRGC. Caution, graphic article.

Lindsey Graham said things got 'sporty' on a Trump call with IRGC leader to the point DJT lost his voice. No idea if/how that would be true, but interesting claim. I still can't stand that guy.