Agador Spartacus said:

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The Fall Guy said:

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They are getting their licks in because they know Iran cannot fire back because of the ceasefire. None of the gulf nations were included. Hope they pick off some good targets.

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If these two things are true :
1. Hexbollah/ Lebanon was on the ceasefire list (per the Pakistani mediator) and Israel decided to execute their strike anyway.
2. We agreed to the ceasefire as the USA and Israel… but are now giving information to the UAE/ Saudi Arabia / (insert any other local ally here) to carry out our strikes for us

If those are both true, then that is dirty pool on our side and we're responsible for the talks breaking down.

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Neither are true. Of course, you believe the Iranians.

The hallmark of any binding agreement is a meeting of the minds. The Pakistani mediator has pretty much admitted that the US and Israel never contemplated including Lebanon, so, by definition, there was no mutual agreement between the two sides to do so.

Lebanon isn't a party to the war with Iran in regards to having some sort of official alliance with Iran. The Lebanese government doesn't even really control the southern portion of that nation.

Seems like the Islamic Republic has fractured into warring sects.

definitely proves they "won" the war.

only an idiot could possibly truly believe that:

This post by Dan is a lie.

1 out of 3 factions in Islamic Republic begged for ceasefire. 2 other hardline factions are now hunting down the pro-ceasefire side.

1 of the hardline factions in charge of IRGC Navy declared Hormuz closed. Then this morning, the pro-ceasefire faction… https://t.co/rlg3Imlhnd

— Mahyar Tousi (@MahyarTousi) April 9, 2026

People are getting Lebanon conflated with Hezbollah and Iran loves to play that because most of the global population including the vast majority of Americans don't understand the difference.

I tend to find myself mostly comfortable with anything Israel feels they need to do during this extended campaign.

ErnestEndeavor said:

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People are getting Lebanon conflated with Hezbollah and Iran loves to play that because most of the global population including the vast majority of Americans don't understand the difference.

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True. We think of other countries as having control over what goes on in their borders. The reality is disputed territories amongst various factions is still quite common. Lebanon's government has little control (or will to control) what is going on near their southern border. One the one hand, they don't care for the Palestinians there, but on the other they loathe Israel and have little desire to do anything perceived as aiding them.

It won't be long before Iran devolves into a civil war over who actually has power there.

MouthBQ98 said:

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It won't be long before Iran devolves into a civil war over who actually has power there.

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seems more likely the hardline IRGC fanatics

will round up those Iranians the Trump Administration have been dealing with and execute them

I won't be crying about it.

As I speculated before, I think shedding some light on the factions and applying pressure to the division is what the ceasefire was really about on our side. This is how regime change can be made possible.

Was hoping this would've happened day one, where the people who've been repressed for decades would've taken back their country and figured it out themselves. There's still hope and time…..

⚠️ Update: It's now day 41 of #Iran's internet blackout, with the regime's ban on access to global networks continuing past 960 hours. The measure, unprecedented in scale and duration for a connected society, continues to violate Iranians' rights to communicate and stay informed. pic.twitter.com/kZdUGvMDIl

— NetBlocks (@netblocks) April 9, 2026

Still no internet in Iran. Indicates to me that nothing is peachy with warring sects plus an active revolt threat.

[Take the US political commentary to a different thread and stop derailing this one -- Staff]

sanangelo said:

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KentK93 said:

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If you haven't watched this you really need to take time to watch it. You get a lot of background, history, and insight on strikes on Iran.

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This is extremely good and everyone should watch it. It puts Iran into perspective well.

TLDR;

Past 4-star CENTCOM Commander 2019-2022.
Iran has been a problem for years. War plan to take Iran down on the books for 30 years with constant updates. Changed their act after Soleimani killed in Baghdad became less aggressive. "No doubt the US can open the Staight of Hormuz by force if necessary." Difference between boots on ground and a raid or "under fire". Said we can control straits with raid or "under fire."

A little of discussion about the Trump messaging being awkward and not helpful to allowing average American without military experience to understand.

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I worked under Mckenzie during that period in theater. The mentioned quote about having the ability to open the straits is 100% what we discussed during that time which has made what Iran was able to do in closing the straits all the more puzzling to me. We had a plan to ensure that Iran couldn't do this, so how in the world did we let them close it and use it as leverage over us. It's literally the only trump card they have and it should have been near the top of the list of mission essential priorities.

I know some companies and insurance backers kind of self selected out of using the straits, but still, I find the whole situation hard to believe. The operation should have begun with us sinking their entire navy and destroying any Iranian vessel that even makes a move toward the straits.

First thing we did was sink their entire navy.

It's "closed" because of threat of onshore kamikaze drones and militia rockets

AggieEP said:

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I know some companies and insurance backers kind of self selected out of using the straits, but still, I find the whole situation hard to believe. The operation should have begun with us sinking their entire navy and destroying any Iranian vessel that even makes a move toward the straits.

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I was under the impression that all of Iran's naval vessels were destroyed early. Please clairify.

always gig em said:

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Was hoping this would've happened day one, where the people who've been repressed for decades would've taken back their country and figured it out themselves. There's still hope and time…..

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They don't have any weapons to rise up and take over.

JUST IN: Iranian President threatens to back out of the ceasefire agreement.

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 9, 2026

MaxPower said:

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ErnestEndeavor said:

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People are getting Lebanon conflated with Hezbollah and Iran loves to play that because most of the global population including the vast majority of Americans don't understand the difference.

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True. We think of other countries as having control over what goes on in their borders. The reality is disputed territories amongst various factions is still quite common. Lebanon's government has little control (or will to control) what is going on near their southern border. One the one hand, they don't care for the Palestinians there, but on the other they loathe Israel and have little desire to do anything perceived as aiding them.

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When a country allows, aids, and abets a massive terrorist organization that practically controls large swaths of their territory, there isn't much of a difference between the two.

91_Aggie said:

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always gig em said:

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Was hoping this would've happened day one, where the people who've been repressed for decades would've taken back their country and figured it out themselves. There's still hope and time…..

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They don't have any weapons to rise up and take over.

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If a coup is going to happen there would have to be major discontent within the Army/IRGC. A people's revolt only succeeds when an army officer decides now is his chance to realize his ambitions that he'd been secretly holding and "joins" the revolt. If the army to some extent does not join even an "armed" people's revolt the there is zero chance for success.

If the government in Iran is to be toppled it will be from a random Army coup, not anything that the people do.

91_Aggie said:

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always gig em said:

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Was hoping this would've happened day one, where the people who've been repressed for decades would've taken back their country and figured it out themselves. There's still hope and time…..

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They don't have any weapons to rise up and take over.

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I don't have time to find the source but I had heard a few days ago that we gave some weapons to the Kurds to disperse amongst the Iranian citizens, but they kept them. Not sure if true, but if so, hopefully the Kurds will at least do something good with them.

agcrock2005 said:

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91_Aggie said:

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always gig em said:

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Was hoping this would've happened day one, where the people who've been repressed for decades would've taken back their country and figured it out themselves. There's still hope and time…..

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They don't have any weapons to rise up and take over.

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I don't have time to find the source but I had heard a few days ago that we gave some weapons to the Kurds to disperse amongst the Iranian citizens, but they kept them. Not sure if true, but if so, hopefully the Kurds will at least do something good with them.

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probably will use them to protect themselves from the IRGC

AggieEP said:

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sanangelo said:

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KentK93 said:

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If you haven't watched this you really need to take time to watch it. You get a lot of background, history, and insight on strikes on Iran.

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This is extremely good and everyone should watch it. It puts Iran into perspective well.

TLDR;

Past 4-star CENTCOM Commander 2019-2022.
Iran has been a problem for years. War plan to take Iran down on the books for 30 years with constant updates. Changed their act after Soleimani killed in Baghdad became less aggressive. "No doubt the US can open the Staight of Hormuz by force if necessary." Difference between boots on ground and a raid or "under fire". Said we can control straits with raid or "under fire."

A little of discussion about the Trump messaging being awkward and not helpful to allowing average American without military experience to understand.

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I worked under Mckenzie during that period in theater. The mentioned quote about having the ability to open the straits is 100% what we discussed during that time which has made what Iran was able to do in closing the straits all the more puzzling to me. We had a plan to ensure that Iran couldn't do this, so how in the world did we let them close it and use it as leverage over us. It's literally the only trump card they have and it should have been near the top of the list of mission essential priorities.

I know some companies and insurance backers kind of self selected out of using the straits, but still, I find the whole situation hard to believe. The operation should have begun with us sinking their entire navy and destroying any Iranian vessel that even makes a move toward the straits.

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I worked at CENTCOM from 2008-2011 and I can guarantee the US had a plan (and backup plan) to secure the flow of ships through the Strait, and it didn't involve boots on the ground (or if it did it was VERY light).

Best way to get a coup is for Trump to announce he has started paying out $100,000 to IRGC members for their assistance, and will continue to pay out $100,000 to each new one that helps.

Wabs said:

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AggieEP said:

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sanangelo said:

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KentK93 said:

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If you haven't watched this you really need to take time to watch it. You get a lot of background, history, and insight on strikes on Iran.

---

This is extremely good and everyone should watch it. It puts Iran into perspective well.

TLDR;

Past 4-star CENTCOM Commander 2019-2022.
Iran has been a problem for years. War plan to take Iran down on the books for 30 years with constant updates. Changed their act after Soleimani killed in Baghdad became less aggressive. "No doubt the US can open the Staight of Hormuz by force if necessary." Difference between boots on ground and a raid or "under fire". Said we can control straits with raid or "under fire."

A little of discussion about the Trump messaging being awkward and not helpful to allowing average American without military experience to understand.

---

I worked under Mckenzie during that period in theater. The mentioned quote about having the ability to open the straits is 100% what we discussed during that time which has made what Iran was able to do in closing the straits all the more puzzling to me. We had a plan to ensure that Iran couldn't do this, so how in the world did we let them close it and use it as leverage over us. It's literally the only trump card they have and it should have been near the top of the list of mission essential priorities.

I know some companies and insurance backers kind of self selected out of using the straits, but still, I find the whole situation hard to believe. The operation should have begun with us sinking their entire navy and destroying any Iranian vessel that even makes a move toward the straits.

---

I worked at CENTCOM from 2008-2011 and I can guarantee the US had a plan (and backup plan) to secure the flow of ships through the Strait, and it didn't involve boots on the ground (or if it did it was VERY light).

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And did that account for drone based attacks back then?

Not a chance

Could the US be letting this happen (for a short while) to let the rest of the world see how Iran will behave?

91_Aggie said:

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agcrock2005 said:

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91_Aggie said:

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always gig em said:

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Was hoping this would've happened day one, where the people who've been repressed for decades would've taken back their country and figured it out themselves. There's still hope and time…..

---

They don't have any weapons to rise up and take over.

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I don't have time to find the source but I had heard a few days ago that we gave some weapons to the Kurds to disperse amongst the Iranian citizens, but they kept them. Not sure if true, but if so, hopefully the Kurds will at least do something good with them.

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probably will use them to protect themselves from the IRGC

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And Turkey.

When you kill almost all the leadership a power vacuum is formed, we saw this in Iraq and Afghanistan. The USA sucks at nation building and should have no major part in this, the ME countries need to step up and take charge

Wabs said:

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AggieEP said:

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sanangelo said:

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KentK93 said:

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If you haven't watched this you really need to take time to watch it. You get a lot of background, history, and insight on strikes on Iran.

---

This is extremely good and everyone should watch it. It puts Iran into perspective well.

TLDR;

Past 4-star CENTCOM Commander 2019-2022.
Iran has been a problem for years. War plan to take Iran down on the books for 30 years with constant updates. Changed their act after Soleimani killed in Baghdad became less aggressive. "No doubt the US can open the Staight of Hormuz by force if necessary." Difference between boots on ground and a raid or "under fire". Said we can control straits with raid or "under fire."

A little of discussion about the Trump messaging being awkward and not helpful to allowing average American without military experience to understand.

---

I worked under Mckenzie during that period in theater. The mentioned quote about having the ability to open the straits is 100% what we discussed during that time which has made what Iran was able to do in closing the straits all the more puzzling to me. We had a plan to ensure that Iran couldn't do this, so how in the world did we let them close it and use it as leverage over us. It's literally the only trump card they have and it should have been near the top of the list of mission essential priorities.

I know some companies and insurance backers kind of self selected out of using the straits, but still, I find the whole situation hard to believe. The operation should have begun with us sinking their entire navy and destroying any Iranian vessel that even makes a move toward the straits.

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I worked at CENTCOM from 2008-2011 and I can guarantee the US had a plan (and backup plan) to secure the flow of ships through the Strait, and it didn't involve boots on the ground (or if it did it was VERY light).

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i think even this administration understands that the risk of Iran sinking one of our most advanced warships while escorting tankers though the strait is too great. It might be a lucky shot but that would definitely not have a good look on the image of the perception the USA has created of our "unstoppable" navy. Plus it would also give China and Russia insight into our exact defensive abilities being used in real war situation.

javajaws said:

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Wabs said:

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AggieEP said:

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sanangelo said:

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KentK93 said:

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If you haven't watched this you really need to take time to watch it. You get a lot of background, history, and insight on strikes on Iran.

---

This is extremely good and everyone should watch it. It puts Iran into perspective well.

TLDR;

Past 4-star CENTCOM Commander 2019-2022.
Iran has been a problem for years. War plan to take Iran down on the books for 30 years with constant updates. Changed their act after Soleimani killed in Baghdad became less aggressive. "No doubt the US can open the Staight of Hormuz by force if necessary." Difference between boots on ground and a raid or "under fire". Said we can control straits with raid or "under fire."

A little of discussion about the Trump messaging being awkward and not helpful to allowing average American without military experience to understand.

---

I worked under Mckenzie during that period in theater. The mentioned quote about having the ability to open the straits is 100% what we discussed during that time which has made what Iran was able to do in closing the straits all the more puzzling to me. We had a plan to ensure that Iran couldn't do this, so how in the world did we let them close it and use it as leverage over us. It's literally the only trump card they have and it should have been near the top of the list of mission essential priorities.

I know some companies and insurance backers kind of self selected out of using the straits, but still, I find the whole situation hard to believe. The operation should have begun with us sinking their entire navy and destroying any Iranian vessel that even makes a move toward the straits.

---

I worked at CENTCOM from 2008-2011 and I can guarantee the US had a plan (and backup plan) to secure the flow of ships through the Strait, and it didn't involve boots on the ground (or if it did it was VERY light).

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And did that account for drone based attacks back then?

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I can't recall drones being a part of it, no. This was over 15 years ago. But the plan was continually updated. It wasn't "signed" and put on a shelf to pull down in case of war. I assume the current plan addresses drones and anything else that would fall into the new technology category.

Iran claims they mined the normal navigation channel through the strait in order to force vessels through an alternative path in their own waters much closer to their islands and mainland that they can more directly threaten with small craft and short range guided weapons. They can then use this to control traffic and extort payment for passage.

Very likely there are only a handful of token mines or none at all, but very few commercial vessels all chance mines or threat of drone attack to run the normal channel.

Imho we should be sweeping it while the ceasefire holds, even though there is a risk of taking fire, or developing an alternative navigable channel that is closer to Oman. The water of deep enough in places to get seagoing vessels through but more constricted between shoals and shallows.

There is no telling who in Iran is actually taking any of these extorted fees.

The flip side of that is that it's unlikely China, and definitely not Russia, has the capability of defending against this same weakness.

This is something every major power is going to face going forward.

China would have the same problem in the Taiwan Strait if they tried to take the island.

TAMUallen said:

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ErnestEndeavor said:

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Big if true.
Confirmed from Israeli media:
(1) largest coordinated airstrikes by Israel ever against Hezbollah targets.
(2) Defense Minister Israel Katz said the strikes targeted "hundreds of Hezbollah operatives" and that "Today Hezbollah has suffered heaviest blow since 2024… https://t.co/iyF2woRBZw

— David Bernstein (@ProfDBernstein) April 9, 2026

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Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports at least 182 kiIIed and 890 wounded in Israeli strikes against Hezbollah nationwide yesterday.

This marks the largest blow to Hezbollah since the pager attack, with dozens of commanders, senior figures, and operatives eliminated in a major hit… pic.twitter.com/fJnNFfBPho

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 9, 2026

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Not trying to be political, but it if flat out amazing what the Israelis can accomplish, both from a military and intelligence perspective. It's bad business to be on their bad side.

That's over a thousand dead or wounded Hezbollah in that photo. You have to be very, very good to pull that off. You have to be very, very good to even think of it.

GAC06 said:

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Not a chance

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You missed the point. We don't actually pay - it's just for psyops!

Was replying to the drone question