Xi is purging CCP military leaders

7,818 Views | 71 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by MaxPower
flown-the-coop
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AtticusMatlock said:

Not like this. This purge is huge, the biggest by far of Xi's time as leader. This general was a huge power broker. The power struggle inside the CCP appears to be real and appeared to be very threatening to Xi himself.

Not saying it isn't but do you have a source on this being the biggest by far? I recall at least a couple previous that were for sure the end of the Xi regime until they were not.

Agree this is significant, but would have to see more to rank it in severity and depth.
K2-HMFIC
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The first thing to remember about CCP/PLA anti-corruption campaigns is that everyone is corrupt, so all anti-corruption moves are political rather than financial. This is particularly true in the PLA, which has maintained an informal pay-for-promotion scheme for decades, above and beyond traditional corruption avenues documented in earlier academic work and subsequent articles in China Leadership Monitor, including the well-known "So Crooked They Have to Screw Their Pants On" series. (The quote itself comes from the late Hunter S. Thompson, describing Richard Nixon.)

The second point is that this campaign is fundamentally about Xi Jinping and the consolidation of his power. It is no accident that the first crime listed in the official indictment is "undermining the Chairman Responsibility System" (), rather than enrichment or remuneration. Those interested in the broader evolution of this system can consult analysis in China Leadership Monitor, particularly work on the cult of Xi and the rise of the CMC Chairman Responsibility System.

The third point is that this campaign reflects the CCP civilian leadership's longstanding concern about "mountaintopism" () in the PLAthat is, the creation of alternative military centers of power. This leads directly into the opaque world of princeling politics and factional struggles within the Party Center. There is no solid, comprehensive understandingat any level of classificationof the full dynamics at play. Analysis is instead forced to rely on diaspora rumor, conspiracy theories, official statements and silences, and fragmentary reporting. Still, enough is known about the backgrounds of Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia to suggest that these struggles extend back decades and expose deep fault lines within the broader "red family" ecosystem.
stallion6
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Cancel culture is everywhere.
agent-maroon
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So does this make a Chinese move on Taiwan more or less likely? I would think less likely, but with regards to things Chinese I really have a hard time with interpretations and/or predictions.
Logos Stick
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Remember when Obama said China was a model.

These dudes are now chained up in a dungeon somewhere.
ttu_85
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agent-maroon said:

So does this make a Chinese move on Taiwan more or less likely? I would think less likely, but with regards to things Chinese I really have a hard time with interpretations and/or predictions.

China has a long long history of internal strife. In the 1860's they fought a civil war with literally 32X the body count of ours. The same from 1929 to 1950. Nobody stacks Chinese dead like the Chinese. Its happened several times even before the 1860's

People need to be careful for what they wish for regarding political instability in the worlds 2 most powerful nations. This is a scary prospect. This could turn out badly if history is any guide.

The entire planet seems to be going nuts, Islamo invasion of Europe, Iran, Russia-Ukraine, NATO instability ,etc Turn to Jesus people this ride is getting scary.
Buck Turgidson
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Logos Stick said:

Remember when Obama said China was a model.

These dudes are now chained up in a dungeon somewhere.


Sadly he is talking about the Chinese guys and not Obama and Big Mike.
chiphijason
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agent-maroon said:

So does this make a Chinese move on Taiwan more or less likely? I would think less likely, but with regards to things Chinese I really have a hard time with interpretations and/or predictions.


Taiwan maintains a lot of islands between itself and the mainland. Several of those islands are within a few miles of the coast. During the 50s and 60s they were hardened targets with minefields, bunkers and thousands of men. Once Taiwan gave up on reconquering the mainland and China opened for business, Taiwan removed most of the defenses and even opened them up for Chinese tourism and business. Taking a few would be pretty simple for the CCP and serve as a way to ratchet up pressure. China likes to take a little slice at a time and never give that slice back. A full invasion will not just happen out of the blue. It will be the result of months if not years of prep work to reduce the population's will to resist. The only way it happens fast is if we make some giant strategic blunder.
K2-HMFIC
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I know Isaac…I trust him more than Gordon Chang…follow him if you want deep PRC insights.
Biz Ag
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MaxPower said:

What do we mean by "purged"? Fired, jailed or unalived?


Designated for assignment.
Yukon Cornelius
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another thing I think about. China has never waged a war. I don't believe they know how to do it. Nor the cultural backdrop for it. You can read though every single one of our military engagements throughout every decade. Without fail the tactics and technology changed rapidly from start to finish. It's because battlefield testing is imperative. China has zero. The are IMO a paper tiger. Taiwan would rekt them.
L
K2-HMFIC
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Yukon Cornelius said:

another thing I think about. China has never waged a war. I don't believe they know how to do it. Norman the cultural backdrop for it. You can read though every single one of our military engagements throughout every decade. Without fail the tactics and technology changed rapidly from start to finish. It's because battlefield testing is imperative. China has zero. The are IMO a paper tiger. Taiwan would rekt them.

It's si



Bro…that's a..a take.

There is real reason to be skeptical of the PLAs military prowess in conflict…however…at some level…they've built enough missiles to walk from Fuzhou to Taipei without getting your feet wet.

That's enough to overcome a degree of operational ineptitude.
MaxPower
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Never? lol China has been in various conflicts for millennia. Most of the time it is the consolidation of what we now call China but what is now China was rarely one country.
agent-maroon
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They've attempted some military actions with India & Viet Nam and failed to obtain anything meaningful from them. In fact, you can argue that they got their asses whupped each time.
MaxPower
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They were fairly effective against us in North Korea sending mass amounts of unarmed cattle for slaughter. Turned the tide of that war.
agent-maroon
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True, but given similar Russian efforts in Ukraine I'm not so sure that this would still work (especially against my main concern of Taiwan)
MaxPower
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Maybe but China has significantly more people to throw in a meat grinder. Regardless, I agree the main point that whatever their threat it's fairly regionalized within Asia. We have gotten lazy with letting them poke and prod into our backyard so we need to get them back on their heels by making Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, India, etc more credible threats to get them more focused on their local problems. To me that means massive investment in our Navy to support those regional allies and less focus on our Army (reducing or eliminating forces in Europe would be a good start).
FarmerJohn
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China fought in Korea and since then has fought border wars with Russia, Vietnam, and India. In addition, they use Pakistan as a proving ground. What they lack is experience in conflicts outside of a small, defined area. If they were to attach Taiwan, I expect them to attempt to define an "exclusion zone" to keep the shooting limited.

I can't think of naval conflicts they have been involved in.
KingofHazor
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WSJ article today that China's top general, Zhang Youxia, has been accused of leaking China's nuclear secrets to the U.S. in exchange for money.

Article is behind a paywall but I can provide excerpts if people want.

Exclusive | China's Top General Accused of Giving Nuclear Secrets to U.S. - WSJ
FrankK
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aggiehawg said:

nortex97 said:

He co-founded Crowdstrike. Kind of an interesting cat, but I have seen this reported far and wide today suddenly.

This one guy was the leader of recent smaller/lower purges.

Yeah but why is THIS on his radar? I go go back too far, I guess. Remember the Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear than falsely said Ukraine's artillery had a vulnerabilitiy during the Maidan Revolution? Then retracted it?

That was in 2014.

Like you, Dmitri Alperovitch's reason for posting what he did is the scariest part should worry the good people of the US. Why would the Atlantic Council's apparatchik be haucking about Stalinism? I mean, what do the Clintons and Obama have up their sleeve?
Yukon Cornelius
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I'm talking last 100 years. They haven't waged a full scale war. You can't snap your fingers and expect to be able to wage war effectively and efficiently. Maybe volume wins in the day but it would be costly. Russia is experiencing that right now.

It's like anything in life. Unless go and actually do it you won't be good.
Gaeilge
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BearJew13
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"According to sources familiar with the matter"^
nortex97
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Yeah…he gone. And of course that cover story is almost certainly BS.

Whatever, pain, distrust and confusion in their military leadership is hard to see as anything but good news.
agent-maroon
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Quote:

...the first time Xi has probed a close ally...

Interesting choice of verb...
Horn_in_Aggieland
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nortex97
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A lot of smoke to that rumor despite the 'community note.'

Quote:


As the son of a founding figure of the PLA who served as a senior commander under Mao, General Zhang Youxia belongs to an elite revolutionary lineage. He earned his own combat credentials during the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War (and subsequent border clashes, including the Battle of Laoshan), where he distinguished himself on the front lines and received decorations for valor.

Loyalties to these Generals run deep within the PLA as many mid- and lower-ranking officers owe their careers to promotions and assignments granted by these senior figures over decades of service. This creates enduring networks of personal allegiance and mutual obligation which means Xi must not stop but go further and purge down the ranks.

Otherwise, there will be a mutiny.

This isn't unlike Stalin's Great Purge (19361938) where he eliminated top Red Army commanders like Mikhail Tukhachevsky - the pioneer of deep battle and maneuver warfare - along with over 30,000 officers, on fabricated charges of treason, espionage, and Trotskyism.

So we're just looking at the tip of the iceberg here. The purge has been going on for a couple of years now, and has disproportionately targeted the PLA Rocket Force (handling nuclear and missile capabilities) and naval leadership.

Military readiness is probably close to zero. Taiwan can breathe for a while

Good.
nortex97
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Odd.
HDeathstar
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This:

"Loyalties to these Generals run deep within the PLA as many mid- and lower-ranking officers owe their careers to promotions and assignments granted by these senior figures over decades of service. This creates enduring networks of personal allegiance and mutual obligation which means Xi must not stop but go further and purge down the ranks."

Have to purge every 15-20 years, or the Generals become a threat to your reign. Loyalties run deep. Need to go down a few layers and promote up to realign that person's career to his authority vs. his boss.
TxLawDawg
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nortex97 said:

Yeah…he gone. And of course that cover story is almost certainly BS.

Whatever, pain, distrust and confusion in their military leadership is hard to see as anything but good news.


All I can say is it sure is nice to hear rumors of secret information leaks flowing this way for a change.
AtticusMatlock
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They were not close allies though. They have been seen as rivals. Xi is worried about collapsing support within the party. His move to not retire after 10 years was seen as a bit of treachery but no one was strong enough to stand up to him at the time. There's a lot of factions within the CCP who want to see him gone.
nortex97
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I guess, I had read they were close friends, but I have no idea as to the veracity of that claim, or really a clue about their internal factions/power struggles. I had at some point read that Xi was 'supposed' to step down a few years ago but similarly it's entirely predictable a Communist president would then just decide not to and abolished 'term limits.'

This is also unsurprising, as China is/has been a surveillance state communist utopia, but some of the details in this post are pretty interesting.

K2-HMFIC
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I'm not reading anything into this…

The Falun Gong Diaspora movements have a notorious habit of floating wild ass rumors to stir **** up.

If there was an actual coup, Starmer wouldn't be in the country.
AtticusMatlock
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Wild rumors about situation.








inconvenient truth
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Meh, not getting my hopes up. This reads a lot like that one dude who was on the march fixing to overthrow Putin a couple years ago and then found himself falling out of the sky in a jet a couple weeks later.
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