A&M economist: Food Prices about to explode

21,724 Views | 233 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Mr.Milkshake
andrago94
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Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.
Deerdude
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GeorgiAg said:

YouBet said:

GeorgiAg said:

I don't know why we're arguing about it. We're about to see what happens with tariffs and deportations.

But MAGAs will somehow blame gays or some other bugaboo.

If we don't have deportations, then we don't have a country. If we are not going to deport illegals, then we might as well just give up our sovereignty, burn the Constitution, and roll commando with complete anarchy.

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for deporting illegals. But we need workers for the jobs Americans don't want. The employers got used to years of cheap labor without doing the proper paperwork.

Foreigners should be here legally, documented, and go home after the work is done.


Illegal help ain't cheap any longer for the most part. Contractors come around wanting slightly less than the pro, but with zero insurance or assurances.
CDUB98
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andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Only if you acknowledge all the Biden spending further fueled the inflation. Trump was not alone.
SunrayAg
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andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Would like to see dim supporters acknowledge that when you step into the oval office and on your first day announce that you plan to wipe out the oil and gas industry, and cause energy prices to skyrocket... the price of every product that requires oil and gas to manufacture or move is going to skyrocket.

Then I would like to see dim supporters acknowledge that when you invite 15 million people who have no legal right to be here to invade the country, you create housing shortages and drive up housing costs.

Then I would like dim supporters to acknowledge that those same 15 million invaders, given free money by the government, will artificially increase demand for every product, and cause price increases.

Then I would like dim supporters to acknowledge that whacko environmental climate cult laws and regulations that make it cost prohibitive to make anything in this country, drive up the cost of production for pretty much everything.

I could go on... but the dim supporters don't have enough of an attention span to read it.
andrago94
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I'm not a Biden or Trump supporter. I knew the massive spending under Trump was the cause of the inflation under Biden. Had Biden been president he would have done exactly what Trump did in 2020 with the money supply.

There was only one House member who opposed Trump's plans and that was Thomas Massie. Everyone else is responsible for the inflation under Biden.
Keller6Ag91
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andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

And the shutdown of governments worldwide led by liberal governments throughout the globe.
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
Hullabaloonatic
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Here's the death rate leading up to and during 2020-2021. This chart examines deaths from all causes not just confirmed cases of coronavirus. That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as "excess deaths."


1. First thing you'll notice is the spike occurs in March 2020. The earliest lockdown of any US city didn't occur until that same month which wouldn't account for the national spike seen.

2. If lockdowns were largely contributing to the death rate, we'd expect the rate to climb consistently and stay high as cities/states continued that lockdown, but you'll notice the rate dips in the summer (almost as if the spread of a viral disease correlates with temperature and not 'people scared of leaving their homes'). It's not until April 2021 we see a meaningful dip in the death rate...which maps perfectly with the public release and deployment of the Covid vaccine.
bam02
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Maroon Dawn said:

Get more Dems off of welfare and this will solve itself


Yep this. "Don't want to do manual labor" it's fine at all when you have government assistance being offered to anyone with a pulse (or without a pulse lol).
Logos Stick
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andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.


So the money supply can be increased but not deceased?

If it can be decreased, why didn't Biden not do that in 2021?
samurai_science
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Hullabaloonatic said:

Here's the death rate leading up to and during 2020-2021. This chart examines deaths from all causes not just confirmed cases of coronavirus. That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as "excess deaths."


1. First thing you'll notice is the spike occurs in March 2020. The earliest lockdown of any US city didn't occur until that same month which wouldn't account for the national spike seen.

2. If lockdowns were largely contributing to the death rate, we'd expect the rate to climb consistently and stay high as cities/states continued that lockdown, but you'll notice the rate dips in the summer (almost as if the spread of a viral disease correlates with temperature and not 'people scared of leaving their homes'). It's not until April 2021 we see a meaningful dip in the death rate...which maps perfectly with the public release and deployment of the Covid vaccine.

Or people have immunity at that point. Your chart proves nothing, and no one cares. The vaccines dont work, its well documented

andrago94
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The monetary base peaked in 2021 at over $6.4 trillion it was $5.6 trillion when Biden left office. I believe the decrease was due to the Fed letting bonds mature and roll off the balance sheet.
Maroon Elephant
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We could always end EBT for capable people in their 20's who've been on it for years and put them to work in those fields and elsewhere. We don't "need" illegal labor forces we need the freeloading cultures among us to start carrying some of the load.
TexAgs Firestorm Survivor
11.25.23
#NeverForget
MemphisAg1
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Maroon Elephant said:

We could always end EBT for capable people in their 20's and 30's, 40's, 50's who've been on it for years and put them to work in those fields and elsewhere. We don't "need" illegal labor forces we need the freeloading cultures among us to start carrying some of the load.

BusterAg
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Hullabaloonatic said:

LOYAL AG said:

TA-OP said:

YouBet said:

Quote:

Trump was the first president to oversee a net loss in jobs since Herbert Hoover.


Simply unbelievable that anyone still uses this talking point. Nevermind the global black swan event that shut the entire planet down.

It's fun to laugh at you.



While I agree it's a dumb comeback, rightists love to ignore that Covid crashed the world economy and the US recovered better than most. So, blaming President Biden without considering Covid's effects on the economy is just as dumb.


Let's be clear. Covid didn't crash the world economy. Governments crashed their own economies and thus the world economy. Covid made people sick and some of them died. Government created the mass hysteria and panic that resulted from it. It's the best reminder in our lifetime that government is the most destructive force known to man.

Every single time a 'Covid truther' spouts off this nonsense i implore them to look at hospitalizations and death rate. Not 'COVID Hospitalizations' or 'COVID Deaths' but raw totals of all deaths/hospitalizations. There is a massive spike in 2021 for both. Whether you think 'lockdowns' and the economy were governmental induced consequences, the 1 thing you cannot explain is the explosion in deaths and hospitalizations.

The REASON EVERY SINGLE ECONOMY around the world crashed and countries like the US AND EFFING CHINA shutdown was because their hospitals were being overrun. You want hysteria? Imagine a world where hospitals are turning away people because they physically don't have space to treat patients.



COVID was about as deadly as the spainish flu if you focus on total death numbers, and actually believe them. Looking at the trend line over time, and the jump between 2019 and 2023, no one is going to convince me that total death numbers were not counted differently between 2019 and 2020, so it is only helptul to compare 2020 - 2022 to 2023, the bottom rate after COVID but before all of the sick immigrants were flooded into the country.

So, COVID was responsible in something like a 2.5% decrease in Real GDP when the Spainish Flu only accounted for about a 1.5% decrease. That's a significant difference.

Furthermore, COVID mostly killed people that didn't contribute to GDP - it was mostly old and retired people dying.

Finally, none of the "preventative measures" seemed to have helped one iota. Everyone got infected with the virus, whether you got really sick or not. The number of asymptomatic carriers was like 50% of infected adults, and 99.9% of infected kids.

COVID was not nearly as deadly as the doomsayers make it out to be, but, it wasn't just a common cold either. It killed a lot of old retired people, and a significant number of working age people that were otherwise not in the best health.

But, most of the pain that the U.S. economy suffered was self-inflicted and not really helpful.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
BusterAg
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Heineken-Ashi said:

TA-OP said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

TA-OP said:

YouBet said:

Quote:

Trump was the first president to oversee a net loss in jobs since Herbert Hoover.


Simply unbelievable that anyone still uses this talking point. Nevermind the global black swan event that shut the entire planet down.

It's fun to laugh at you.



While I agree it's a dumb comeback, rightists love to ignore that Covid crashed the world economy and the US recovered better than most. So, blaming President Biden without considering Covid's effects on the economy is just as dumb.

President Trump was the president when the recovery in America started. Nice try.

If THAT is your goalpost then President Trump deserves the blame, not Covid, for crashing it in the first place.

What specifically did he do to crash the economy. Please provide sources.

He didn't fire Fauci in July 2020. But, there are not many that would have.

I think that DeSantis would have. Maybe Noem. I don't think that there was another politician in the country that would have, though. All of the US governors, judges and legislators seemed to be just too scared to fight against the lockdowns.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
AggieVictor10
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TA-OP said:

techno-ag said:

Bidenflation.
At what point does President Trump becomes responsible? Prices at the grocer have sky-rocketed since January. We're 7 months in, it's time for team red to start taking some accountability.


Trump is only responsible when the numbers are good, then you'll see threads posted like good grades on the fridge.

When things are bad? Nothing is ever his fault.
Aggie Apotheosis
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samurai_science said:

Or people have immunity at that point. Your chart proves nothing, and no one cares. The vaccines dont work, its well documented





His chart proves that there was a massive spike in deaths with the arrival of Covid.
TAMU1990
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andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Inflation Reduction Act??? Luckily Sinema and Manchin held firm or it would have been way worse. Your Dems originally wanted billions more than the Inflation Reduction Act spent. It was called the Build Back Better Act (which was a socialist slogan).
TAMU1990
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BusterAg said:

Hullabaloonatic said:

LOYAL AG said:

TA-OP said:

YouBet said:

Quote:

Trump was the first president to oversee a net loss in jobs since Herbert Hoover.


Simply unbelievable that anyone still uses this talking point. Nevermind the global black swan event that shut the entire planet down.

It's fun to laugh at you.



While I agree it's a dumb comeback, rightists love to ignore that Covid crashed the world economy and the US recovered better than most. So, blaming President Biden without considering Covid's effects on the economy is just as dumb.


Let's be clear. Covid didn't crash the world economy. Governments crashed their own economies and thus the world economy. Covid made people sick and some of them died. Government created the mass hysteria and panic that resulted from it. It's the best reminder in our lifetime that government is the most destructive force known to man.

Every single time a 'Covid truther' spouts off this nonsense i implore them to look at hospitalizations and death rate. Not 'COVID Hospitalizations' or 'COVID Deaths' but raw totals of all deaths/hospitalizations. There is a massive spike in 2021 for both. Whether you think 'lockdowns' and the economy were governmental induced consequences, the 1 thing you cannot explain is the explosion in deaths and hospitalizations.

The REASON EVERY SINGLE ECONOMY around the world crashed and countries like the US AND EFFING CHINA shutdown was because their hospitals were being overrun. You want hysteria? Imagine a world where hospitals are turning away people because they physically don't have space to treat patients.



COVID was about as deadly as the spainish flu if you focus on total death numbers, and actually believe them. Looking at the trend line over time, and the jump between 2019 and 2023, no one is going to convince me that total death numbers were not counted differently between 2019 and 2020, so it is only helptul to compare 2020 - 2022 to 2023, the bottom rate after COVID but before all of the sick immigrants were flooded into the country.

So, COVID was responsible in something like a 2.5% decrease in Real GDP when the Spainish Flu only accounted for about a 1.5% decrease. That's a significant difference.

Furthermore, COVID mostly killed people that didn't contribute to GDP - it was mostly old and retired people dying.

Finally, none of the "preventative measures" seemed to have helped one iota. Everyone got infected with the virus, whether you got really sick or not. The number of asymptomatic carriers was like 50% of infected adults, and 99.9% of infected kids.

COVID was not nearly as deadly as the doomsayers make it out to be, but, it wasn't just a common cold either. It killed a lot of old retired people, and a significant number of working age people that were otherwise not in the best health.

But, most of the pain that the U.S. economy suffered was self-inflicted and not really helpful.

Sounds like the perfect Chinese Plague. It did the job they designed it to do.
TAMU1990
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Deerdude said:

Yea he was still naive and erroneously trusted the "expert" Fauci and friends.

Fauci, Birks, etc should be in prison for giving malicious advice. It was purposeful to cover their butts and to hurt Trump (and Americans). I would say the same thing if it was a Democratic president who received malicious advice.
TRM
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BusterAg said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

TA-OP said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

TA-OP said:

YouBet said:

Quote:

Trump was the first president to oversee a net loss in jobs since Herbert Hoover.


Simply unbelievable that anyone still uses this talking point. Nevermind the global black swan event that shut the entire planet down.

It's fun to laugh at you.



While I agree it's a dumb comeback, rightists love to ignore that Covid crashed the world economy and the US recovered better than most. So, blaming President Biden without considering Covid's effects on the economy is just as dumb.

President Trump was the president when the recovery in America started. Nice try.

If THAT is your goalpost then President Trump deserves the blame, not Covid, for crashing it in the first place.

What specifically did he do to crash the economy. Please provide sources.

He didn't fire Fauci in July 2020. But, there are not many that would have.

I think that DeSantis would have. Maybe Noem. I don't think that there was another politician in the country that would have, though. All of the US governors, judges and legislators seemed to be just too scared to fight against the lockdowns.

Noem would not have fired Fauci. Look up SD HB 1297 that she wanted passed and Executive Order 2020 12 and 13.
E_TX_Ag12
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He's late to the party. This already happened under Biden.
BusterAg
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TRM said:

BusterAg said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

TA-OP said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

TA-OP said:

YouBet said:

Quote:

Trump was the first president to oversee a net loss in jobs since Herbert Hoover.


Simply unbelievable that anyone still uses this talking point. Nevermind the global black swan event that shut the entire planet down.

It's fun to laugh at you.



While I agree it's a dumb comeback, rightists love to ignore that Covid crashed the world economy and the US recovered better than most. So, blaming President Biden without considering Covid's effects on the economy is just as dumb.

President Trump was the president when the recovery in America started. Nice try.

If THAT is your goalpost then President Trump deserves the blame, not Covid, for crashing it in the first place.

What specifically did he do to crash the economy. Please provide sources.

He didn't fire Fauci in July 2020. But, there are not many that would have.

I think that DeSantis would have. Maybe Noem. I don't think that there was another politician in the country that would have, though. All of the US governors, judges and legislators seemed to be just too scared to fight against the lockdowns.

Noem would not have fired Fauci. Look up SD HB 1297 that she wanted passed and Executive Order 2020 12 and 13.

True. But, when push came to shove, she got really squishy about trans playing women's sports, so, it's difficult to understand how principled she is when push comes to shove.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
IIIHorn
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CardiffGiant said:

IIIHorn said:

Exploding food?!

IDF is at it again.

Cellulose phones!?
halfastros81
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Why can't they be documented workers? Do they work harder if they are undocumented?
infinity ag
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I buy Folgers coffee from Amazon on subscription. Folgers is downmarket but I got to love the taste since my A&M days. I have reduced the amount slightly lately.

Anyway I got an email of a price change. By 26%!
wtmartinaggie
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Absolutely. I actually was forced into a case study for that this year. Where I grow there are limited options for work, so I had to use a combination of four labor solutions to harvest squash and cucumbers.

1) Domestic Non-Hispanic Labor (50-50 Black/White)
2) Mexican (said he was H2A) Labor Contractor (Spanish Speaking/Mexican)
3) Local Mexican Labor (50-50 Documented/Undocumented (est))
4) State Prison Labor Partnership Program (60% Black/40% White)

Domestic laborers did well for about two hours, then slowed down considerably. Most quit after a couple of days or would do whatever they could to weasel their way onto the packing trailer and out of the field. If it was over 90F, they'd slow down so much that we'd have to cut them by noon. They produced at about 50% of the contractor.

The mexican contractor did at least double the work of any other solution. They'd weather the heat better, produce more, complain less, and with the exception of a few days where the heat index was over 110F they'd never knock off until the work was done. You had to keep an eye on them, but they were solid.

The local mexican laborers were second best. You can tell the ones that were born here just by watching them work. They did about 65% of what the mexican contractor's team would do. They'd rarely knock off early, and they worked better unsupervised (mainly because their leader was an older first generation mexican that was great at keeping them on task)

The state prison labor was by far the worst, which we expected. they were by far the cheapest but you got what you paid for. They worked extremely slow, were easily distracted, and we ended up transitioning them to weed control and other simple tasks. They just couldn't handle the work.

Make no mistake, the immigrant labor force in agriculture is by far the best and it's not even close.

halfastros81
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That is interesting but not an answer to the question I was asking. My point was the same worker is the same worker whether he's documented or not so just document them , give em a green card and let them work.

Having said that , they need to be vetted to get a green card. I don't care how good a worker is if they are also undesirable for other reasons like criminal history. I kinda doubt most of these people that do this sort of work are a problem tho.
wtmartinaggie
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The system isn't designed for that and the process to get a green card takes too long vs. the labor need in farming.

These guys take the H2A route if they can, but it's not always an easy process. In MX, getting in with an H2A deal requires a relationship with someone that can navigate the system, which isn't always readily available. Another big barrier is the expense to the person hosting them, it drives out demand. Housing plus the $16 base rate pushes them above $20/hr an if the crop fails you've now got that much more invested with no garuntee of return. It's by far the most lucrative option for the worker for a ton of reasons. The issue is that the process takes time, agriculture work is highly variable and the costs are significant.

For example, this year the blueberry crop in NC and GA were both off. That demand typically draws in thousands of laborers. H2A is a lot tougher to navigate when the season is only 10 weeks long. They come in late March or April to hand harvest blueberries. Many are H2A contractors or general labor contractors that migrate their workforce with the work, something the standard H2A model doesn't really make easy to navigate. When blues end, half will follow the harvest north to Jersey or Michigan and the rest will transition to veg. This year we were way way short on labor. GA's harvest was short and with enforcement high labor was short in supply. Many decided not to come outright or returned to MX early. Getting deported puts a black mark on your record and makes future migration much more difficult so many decide not to take the risk. To compound the issue, when blues were short and veg was behind due to rain there was no work so many laborers that were here and not attached to a larger program left. So, when the need came online there were fewer options. Labor contractors dealing in outright illegals generally would step in to cover that gap, but with enforcement measures high they weren't there to pick up the slack.
halfastros81
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Process needs to be streamlined imo. It seems pretty clear migrant foreign workers are needed in this particular industry so update the system to work with the situation. This has been the crux of the problem for a long time imo. The system isn't good
wtmartinaggie
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I'll also say this, being undocumented does seem to give them extra motivation to work harder. They are working towards a goal. Whether it be a ranchita back home or to migrate their family to the US above all else they keep their head down and out of trouble. The money is all that matters. The risk of deportation and the setback that comes with it creates motivation and a perspective they start to lose as they assimilate.

Simply put, they view the job as an opportunity rather than a bottom of the barrel job they want to move on from ASAP.

wtmartinaggie
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Agree completely. The current system is going to drive consolidation in farms and put the small grower out of business. All that will be left are the large companies that farm thousands of acres and can absorb the costs and insulate against the inconsistency with scale.
halfastros81
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With regard to the motivation and money being better for undocumented workers , I get that but no system is going to be perfect for everyone . There is a compromise that can be workable for all non criminal workers. To me there is clearly a way to have workers documented and legal and still provides them better opportunities than they have in their home country. Having a load of undocumented foreigners within our borders is not an acceptable answer imo. We have seen the problems that come along with that nonsense.

Unfortunately the bad guys spoil things for the good guys. It's just reality.
halfastros81
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I do have this question not being overly familiar with these industries, how much of what is being done by hand can be mechanized ? I'm sure it varies based on the crop but in general is that a viable option?
samurai_science
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Aggie Apotheosis said:

samurai_science said:

Or people have immunity at that point. Your chart proves nothing, and no one cares. The vaccines dont work, its well documented





His chart proves that there was a massive spike in deaths with the arrival of Covid.

"massive" and yet the data shows it was not massive, it was just a bad flu. Because for some reason all the flue deaths disapeered. LOL

Died with covid was used to inflate the numbers.....its well documented.
 
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