A&M economist: Food Prices about to explode

21,793 Views | 233 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Mr.Milkshake
Deerdude
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It amazed me the most that Covid completely eliminated flu that year.
Over_ed
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andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

A lot, but that is very unnuanced. About 2/3 was due to reserve action. The rest due to CARES act.

2021 was more of the same. ~1Trillion reserve/lending and a 900M ARP etc.

So Trump (and congress) was "only" responsible for about 1$ Trillion of the nearly 6 trilion increase over those 2 years,
Logos Stick
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andrago94 said:

The monetary base peaked in 2021 at over $6.4 trillion it was $5.6 trillion when Biden left office. I believe the decrease was due to the Fed letting bonds mature and roll off the balance sheet.


You said "money supply" in your OP. It did not peak in 2021. The base is not the money supply. M2 peaked in 2022. So it can contract. OK thanks!

It expanded under Biden from Jan 2021 until May 2022 after we had a vax and businesses were reopened it! Stop blaming Trump. Biden had full control and could have prevented the inflation but refused!
techno-ag
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Deerdude said:

It amazed me the most that Covid completely eliminated flu that year.

What was flu was called Covid.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
Deerdude
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Yea I know. Flu diagnosis paid squat. La rona diagnosis paid $80k ish. It was amazing. Who knows how many car wreck fatalities were diagnosed as la rona
wtmartinaggie
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Technology has helped in a lot of places, Drone sprayers can cover a lot of ground fast and replace tractor operators. Automation in packing facilities reduces the need for packers. Harvester technology has made machine harvesting commodities like grapes and blueberries the new standard. They aren't as effective as humans from a quality standpoint today, but they are improving.

Where we haven't made headway is in areas like field prep (plastic laying, irrigation, etc.) and piece harvesting (squash, melons, strawberries, lettuce). Necessity breeds innovation, but across all activites we've had to absorb a decrease in quality of product with every step forward in automation.

Again, the biggest barrier there is expense. As a solution it's driving consolidation and the extinction of the small farm as much as the labor crisis is.
Gigem314
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GeorgiAg said:

I don't know why we're arguing about it. We're about to see what happens with tariffs and deportations.

But MAGAs will somehow blame gays or some other bugaboo.

More like people like you blaming MAGAs for fake outrage or holding Trump to standards that you ignored for your boy Joe.
Gigem314
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andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Would like to see Biden supporters acknowledge the inflation we saw under Biden and the beginning of Trump's second term was due to the anti-business and anti-oil policies put in place by Biden's handlers.
BigRobSA
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Gigem314 said:

andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Would like to see Biden supporters acknowledge the inflation we saw under Biden and the beginning of Trump's second term was due to the anti-business and anti-oil policies put in place by Biden's handlers.

Both are true.

Trump started the inflationary spiral with his terrihorribad COVID response, and Biden turned that idiocy to 11ty.

Obama's 8
Trump's 4
Biden's 4

16 years of fiscal liberalism. :-(
Gigem314
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BigRobSA said:

Gigem314 said:

andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Would like to see Biden supporters acknowledge the inflation we saw under Biden and the beginning of Trump's second term was due to the anti-business and anti-oil policies put in place by Biden's handlers.

Both are true.

Trump started the inflationary spiral with his terrihorribad COVID response, and Biden turned that idiocy to 11ty.

Obama's 8
Trump's 4
Biden's 4

16 years of fiscal liberalism. :-(

12 of those 16 were closer to fiscal socialism than traditional 'big spending' liberalism. But I agree they are examples of what to avoid.
BigRobSA
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Gigem314 said:

BigRobSA said:

Gigem314 said:

andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Would like to see Biden supporters acknowledge the inflation we saw under Biden and the beginning of Trump's second term was due to the anti-business and anti-oil policies put in place by Biden's handlers.

Both are true.

Trump started the inflationary spiral with his terrihorribad COVID response, and Biden turned that idiocy to 11ty.

Obama's 8
Trump's 4
Biden's 4

16 years of fiscal liberalism. :-(

12 of those 16 were closer to fiscal socialism than traditional 'big spending' liberalism. But I agree they are examples of what to avoid.

Deerdude
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Gigem314 said:

GeorgiAg said:

I don't know why we're arguing about it. We're about to see what happens with tariffs and deportations.

But MAGAs will somehow blame gays or some other bugaboo.

More like people like you blaming MAGAs for fake outrage or holding Trump to standards that you ignored for your boy Joe.


And Barry and Mike
GeorgiAg
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Deerdude said:

GeorgiAg said:

YouBet said:

GeorgiAg said:

I don't know why we're arguing about it. We're about to see what happens with tariffs and deportations.

But MAGAs will somehow blame gays or some other bugaboo.

If we don't have deportations, then we don't have a country. If we are not going to deport illegals, then we might as well just give up our sovereignty, burn the Constitution, and roll commando with complete anarchy.

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for deporting illegals. But we need workers for the jobs Americans don't want. The employers got used to years of cheap labor without doing the proper paperwork.

Foreigners should be here legally, documented, and go home after the work is done.


Illegal help ain't cheap any longer for the most part. Contractors come around wanting slightly less than the pro, but with zero insurance or assurances.

My neighbor is a commercial honey farmer. He does it the right way and echoed this too. He has Guatemalans, but they are all legal. The come for the season, then go back home.

If they still have time and the work is done, he will "loan" them to me for some yardwork. They cleared this entire hill so steep you can barely walk on it in 1/2 a day.
LOYAL AG
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Deerdude said:

Yea I know. Flu diagnosis paid squat. La rona diagnosis paid $80k ish. It was amazing. Who knows how many car wreck fatalities were diagnosed as la rona


Vividly remember the Duval County, Florida Health Department making fun of the need to label a death as a Covid death even though the guy died in a motorcycle crash. The rules encouraged stupidity and now we're surprised we got stupidity. The biggest single flaw in the liberal worldview is a complete lack of understanding of incentives.
stallion6
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Aggie Apotheosis said:

I hope y'all had productive gardens this year and have begun your canning.


"The first wave of grocery-price increases will likely hit this winter. Roberson predicted produce prices could rise 50% to 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts kick in. And unlike past decades, when Washington would quietly ease border enforcement to keep fields staffed, today's political environment suggests no such check.

'This is like when you see a flood coming, the tsunami is coming in, and the water's gone up two inches,' Robertson warned.

The reason for the labor shortage is American-born workers simply do not want to do manual work at the wages typically offered to foreign-born, undocumented workers, Robertson said. Undocumented workers are used to getting paid around $18 an hour to pick strawberriesthe type of wage American citizens can get working at an ice cream shop."

Forbes: Get Ready

Meanwhile:


Deport those who work in your fields and meat processing plants


Again: undocumented workers are net assets for the U.S. economy.








Sounds like a good excuse not to eat vegetables.
Gigem314
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BigRobSA said:

Gigem314 said:

BigRobSA said:

Gigem314 said:

andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Would like to see Biden supporters acknowledge the inflation we saw under Biden and the beginning of Trump's second term was due to the anti-business and anti-oil policies put in place by Biden's handlers.

Both are true.

Trump started the inflationary spiral with his terrihorribad COVID response, and Biden turned that idiocy to 11ty.

Obama's 8
Trump's 4
Biden's 4

16 years of fiscal liberalism. :-(

12 of those 16 were closer to fiscal socialism than traditional 'big spending' liberalism. But I agree they are examples of what to avoid.



Good teacher. He really seems to care. About what I have no idea...
Captain Pablo
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Gigem314 said:

BigRobSA said:

Gigem314 said:

BigRobSA said:

Gigem314 said:

andrago94 said:

Would like to see Trump supporters acknowledge that the inflation we saw under Biden was due to the massive increase in money supply during 2020.

Would like to see Biden supporters acknowledge the inflation we saw under Biden and the beginning of Trump's second term was due to the anti-business and anti-oil policies put in place by Biden's handlers.

Both are true.

Trump started the inflationary spiral with his terrihorribad COVID response, and Biden turned that idiocy to 11ty.

Obama's 8
Trump's 4
Biden's 4

16 years of fiscal liberalism. :-(

12 of those 16 were closer to fiscal socialism than traditional 'big spending' liberalism. But I agree they are examples of what to avoid.



Good teacher. He really seems to care. About what I have no idea...


bobbranco
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Graph proves that people died with Covid not because of Covid.
samurai_science
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bobbranco said:

Graph proves that people died with Covid not because of Covid.

Remember how the flu disappeared? Lol
Gringo Honeymoon
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Beef prices have nothing to do with labor. Drought and food sources, and the fact that many ranchers had to sell their herds to butcher early so they didn't go broke. It's a supply issue.
TexAg91
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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food at Home: Grocery prices (food-at-home) rose by 2.2% year-over-year from July 2024 to July 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This is slightly below the overall food inflation rate of 2.9% for the same period.

USDA Forecast: The USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) predicted in February 2025 that food-at-home prices would increase by 3.3% for the full year, with a prediction interval of -0.2% to 7.0%. This is higher than the 1.2% increase in 2024 but below the 5.0% in 2023 and the 11.4% peak in 2022.

Month-to-Month Changes: From June to July 2025, grocery prices fell slightly by 0.1%, indicating some stabilization, though certain categories saw significant fluctuations.
FCBlitz
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I booked marked these series of posts because the left was tossing out cost for vegetables to almost double in some instances. Tariffs were going to raise taxes everywhere and those tariffs were going to be paid from the wallets of American consumers.

Vegetable pricing at Wegmans have not increased. There are examples that overall the price for veggies have dropped. Fuel costs are down….that by itself has a positive effect on keeping costs at a minimum in check. Egg pricing are 2x's cheaper.

The doom and gloom threads put forward by Dem's never age well.

B-1 83
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TA-OP said:

techno-ag said:

Bidenflation.

At what point does President Trump becomes responsible? Prices at the grocer have sky-rocketed since January. We're 7 months in, it's time for team red to start taking some accountability.

Explain how he is responsible in 10 months for a market that takes years to cycle . He can't make cows $&#@ any faster, and the sheer ignorance of people assuming all field labor is illegal immigrants is amazing. There were over 300,000 H2A visas issued in 2024, and the numbers of citizen "migrant workers" woh work from the RGV to Minnesota or California to Washington would surprise you.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Mr.Milkshake
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Heineken-Ashi said:

I've posted charts like this before, usually about oil. But it applies to all commodities.

This is Rice futures on monthly candles (white and gray bars) with historical price action plotted 12 bars ahead (blue). This shows the year over year readings for each month of price (for example, the most recent bar is starting September 2025 and the blue bar directly above it is September 2024). If current price action is below the blue bars, we are experiencing cooling inflation in that commodity. If above, it's a hot reading.



If we were to see an explosion in rice price, it wouldn't even register as YOY inflation until rising 25%. The truth is, for most ag commodities that aren't meat, we've seen significant deflation for a year now. Meats have had their own issues, none of which are related to less Mexican slave labor being available. Certain most imported commodities like cocoa and coffee have seen GENERATIONAL, even historical upward price movements this year. And I don't think us removing illegal aliens matters much in the Ivory Coast, Ghana, or Indonesia.


Great chart here
 
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