A&M economist: Food Prices about to explode

21,701 Views | 233 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Mr.Milkshake
Aggie Apotheosis
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I hope y'all had productive gardens this year and have begun your canning.


"The first wave of grocery-price increases will likely hit this winter. Roberson predicted produce prices could rise 50% to 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts kick in. And unlike past decades, when Washington would quietly ease border enforcement to keep fields staffed, today's political environment suggests no such check.

'This is like when you see a flood coming, the tsunami is coming in, and the water's gone up two inches,' Robertson warned.

The reason for the labor shortage is American-born workers simply do not want to do manual work at the wages typically offered to foreign-born, undocumented workers, Robertson said. Undocumented workers are used to getting paid around $18 an hour to pick strawberriesthe type of wage American citizens can get working at an ice cream shop."

Forbes: Get Ready

Meanwhile:


Deport those who work in your fields and meat processing plants


Again: undocumented workers are net assets for the U.S. economy.






Rapier108
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"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Yukon Cornelius
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Liberals love their slave labor
Heineken-Ashi
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Aggie Apotheosis said:

I hope y'all had productive gardens this year and have begun your canning.


"The first wave of grocery-price increases will likely hit this winter. Roberson predicted produce prices could rise 50% to 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts kick in. And unlike past decades, when Washington would quietly ease border enforcement to keep fields staffed, today's political environment suggests no such check.

'This is like when you see a flood coming, the tsunami is coming in, and the water's gone up two inches,' Robertson warned.

The reason for the labor shortage is American-born workers simply do not want to do manual work at the wages typically offered to foreign-born, undocumented workers, Robertson said. Undocumented workers are used to getting paid around $18 an hour to pick strawberriesthe type of wage American citizens can get working at an ice cream shop."

Forbes: Get Ready

Meanwhile:


Deport those who work in your fields and meat processing plants


Again: undocumented workers are net assets for the U.S. economy.








If food prices explode it would be because commodity prices bottom and start to rise, not because liberals can't have their illegal slave labor.
techno-ag
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It's already here. A big can of coffee is $20. Don't get me started on steaks. Even fajita meat, traditionally the cheapest cut, has gotten out of hand.

Bidenflation.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
Who?mikejones!
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So be it
Scotty Appleton
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Sounds the professor & OP have a great job opportunity
Maroon Dawn
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Get more Dems off of welfare and this will solve itself
Anti-taxxer
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Accurate. Just 1lb of 80/20 ground beef at HEB was $7.20 today.

SEVEN DOLLARS. For ground meat.

Absolutely ****ing insane.
Owlagdad
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Just planted 4 rows of green beans, row of collards and 8 tomato plants. Little 4 pt I just watch, May be on the table.
Heineken-Ashi
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Anti-taxxer said:

Accurate. Just 1lb of 80/20 ground beef at HEB was $7.20 today.

SEVEN DOLLARS. For ground meat.

Absolutely ****ing insane.

Has nothing to do with labor
Heineken-Ashi
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techno-ag said:

It's already here. A big can of coffee is $20. Don't get me started on steaks. Even fajita meat, traditionally the cheapest cut, has gotten out of hand.

Bidenflation.

Also has nothing to do with labor. Mostly related to climate conditions and drought in heavy coffee growing regions.
captkirk
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Lib projections have zero track record of accuracy
Owlagdad
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Thought they weren't going to Jack with field hands.
TA-OP
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techno-ag said:

Bidenflation.
At what point does President Trump becomes responsible? Prices at the grocer have sky-rocketed since January. We're 7 months in, it's time for team red to start taking some accountability.
techno-ag
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TA-OP said:

techno-ag said:

Bidenflation.
At what point does President Trump becomes responsible? Prices at the grocer have sky-rocketed since January. We're 7 months in, it's time for team red to start taking some accountability.

Has nothing to do with labor. See H-A's post above.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
bobbranco
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TA-OP said:

techno-ag said:

Bidenflation.

At what point does President Trump becomes responsible? Prices at the grocer have sky-rocketed since January. We're 7 months in, it's time for team red to start taking some accountability.

Trump inherited Biden's high prices. Stop the deceptive charade.
MemphisAg1
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Aggie Apotheosis said:

Again: undocumented workers are net assets for the U.S. economy.

Get in line and come in the country legally, and there's plenty of work waiting for you.

All the US has to do to offset the labor shortage is increase the legal immigration target.

The border still needs to be secure, and only those authorized to enter should be admitted.

We can have secure borders, legal immigration, and adequate labor to work the fields.

It's not hard.

The Dems instead favor a lawless approach and insecure border.
Heineken-Ashi
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I've posted charts like this before, usually about oil. But it applies to all commodities.

This is Rice futures on monthly candles (white and gray bars) with historical price action plotted 12 bars ahead (blue). This shows the year over year readings for each month of price (for example, the most recent bar is starting September 2025 and the blue bar directly above it is September 2024). If current price action is below the blue bars, we are experiencing cooling inflation in that commodity. If above, it's a hot reading.



If we were to see an explosion in rice price, it wouldn't even register as YOY inflation until rising 25%. The truth is, for most ag commodities that aren't meat, we've seen significant deflation for a year now. Meats have had their own issues, none of which are related to less Mexican slave labor being available. Certain most imported commodities like cocoa and coffee have seen GENERATIONAL, even historical upward price movements this year. And I don't think us removing illegal aliens matters much in the Ivory Coast, Ghana, or Indonesia.
Psycho Bunny
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When you tear out a man's tongue, you are not proving him a liar, you're only telling the world that you fear what he might say.
Ellis Wyatt
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Whatever the cost at the grocery store, we aren't a nation without borders. We aren't a nation without laws.

Prostituting the country for illegals is so stupid only a liberal would do it.
techno-ag
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Ellis Wyatt said:

Whatever the cost at the grocery store, we aren't a nation without borders. We aren't a nation without laws.

Prostituting the country for illegals is so stupid only a liberal would do it.

Yup.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
Ellis Wyatt
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And I own part of a large family farm.

Input costs have gone through the roof. Not a single illegal is employed on the farm and none has ever been. But input costs are still through the roof. You voted for that.
BadMoonRisin
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[No need for this kind of post and you know that. Keep it up and earn a long vacation -- Staff]
Who?mikejones!
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You mean things like the rising costs of fertilizer
DCAggie13y
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TA-OP said:

techno-ag said:

Bidenflation.
At what point does President Trump becomes responsible? Prices at the grocer have sky-rocketed since January. We're 7 months in, it's time for team red to start taking some accountability.


Prices for me exploded over the last 4 years. I've seen minimal increases since January for the food I buy including meat and eggs. The big increases came in 2021 and 2022 but I haven't seen much of anything since. Maybe it's coming like this guy predicts but hasn't hit yet at my grocery store in the DC area.
Aggie71013
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Shop somewhere other than HEB. Got 1 lb 93/7 organic at Aldi for $7.29. HEB knows they have a loyal following and aren't as cheap as they used to be.
TAMU1990
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People are really showing their ignorance - crops are harvested with machines now. We don't have rows of people picking crops anymore.

Beef prices are a product of supply and demand. Farmers are aging and you have fewer rangers to begin with. You have parasitic threats on herds (bot flys, etc), and weather related events that affect herd sizes and feed. When there's a feed supply issue ranchers will send producers to market to wait out the shortage. Then herds will be bred at typical numbers again to increase supply.
carl spacklers hat
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Anti-taxxer said:

Accurate. Just 1lb of 80/20 ground beef at HEB was $7.20 today.

SEVEN DOLLARS. For ground meat.

Absolutely ****ing insane.

A chub of 80/20 at Sam's was $5.42 today. Agreed, it is crazy that ground beef is that high. Eating lots of pork and chicken.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
TAMU1990
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We have a H-2A temporary visa program for agriculture work. There should be plenty of takers.
TAMU1990
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They aren't
Keller6Ag91
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Aggie Apotheosis said:

I hope y'all had productive gardens this year and have begun your canning.


"The first wave of grocery-price increases will likely hit this winter. Roberson predicted produce prices could rise 50% to 100% by early next year as inventories clear and new contracts kick in. And unlike past decades, when Washington would quietly ease border enforcement to keep fields staffed, today's political environment suggests no such check.

'This is like when you see a flood coming, the tsunami is coming in, and the water's gone up two inches,' Robertson warned.

The reason for the labor shortage is American-born workers simply do not want to do manual work at the wages typically offered to foreign-born, undocumented workers, Robertson said. Undocumented workers are used to getting paid around $18 an hour to pick strawberriesthe type of wage American citizens can get working at an ice cream shop."

Forbes: Get Ready

Meanwhile:


Deport those who work in your fields and meat processing plants


Again: undocumented workers are net assets for the U.S. economy.








lol. You believe this nonsense? So glad you don't have an Agtag so I don't have to question your critical thinking skills.
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
Logos Stick
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I last purchased coffee end of December. Same size and brand is up 35% now.

I think prices are going to rise because of higher energy costs. The shale boom is coming to an end.
Heineken-Ashi
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TAMU1990 said:

People are really showing their ignorance - crops are harvested with machines now. We don't have rows of people picking crops anymore.

Beef prices are a product of supply and demand. Farmers are aging and you have fewer rangers to begin with. You have parasitic threats on herds (bot flys, etc), and weather related events that affect herd sizes and feed. When there's a feed supply issue ranchers will send producers to market to wait out the shortage. Then herds will be bred at typical numbers again to increase supply.

techno-ag
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Logos Stick said:

I last purchased coffee end of December. Same size and brand is up 35% now.

I think prices are going to rise because of higher energy costs. The shale boom is coming to an end.

Natural gas, thankfully, remains dirt cheap for now.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
 
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